Why We Lost Prop 8: When Reactive Politics Become Losing Politics
It pains me to describe it this way, but "No on 8" - like Michael Dukakis - blew a seventeen-point lead. Progressives were lulled into complacency by early poll numbers, and distracted by the Barack Obama campaign - even after it became apparent he would win.
But "No on 8" was also a reactive campaign that did not anticipate the opposition's arguments to sway swing voters. Bloggers were effective at pushing memes to define the opposition, but it failed to define much of the race. And "No on 8" did not push a simple and compelling message - "Obama Opposes Prop 8" - to the African-American community until the other side beat them to it, forcing them to play catch-up. This is no time for making excuses, or inspiring words that we're part of a greater struggle. Our right to marry just got taken away from us, and we've got to be smart if we're going to get it back.
I'll freely admit I was one of many progressives distracted by the presidential race and lulled into a false sense of security about Proposition 8. But in early October, after returning from a week in Wisconsin to help Obama, it became apparent that Barack was going to win by a landslide--and that Bay Area activists were wasting their time driving to Reno while there was important work to be done at home. New poll numbers on Prop 8 jolted me out of complacency (one could say I "reacted" to bad news), but my pleas about the presidential race fell on deaf ears. Somehow, progressives still shell-shocked from 2004 were afraid that simply believing Obama was going to win would "jinx" the outcome.
I heard a lot from marriage equality activists last night about "how far" we have come since the days of the Knight Initiative--Proposition 22, where 61% of California voters in March 2000 voted to add discrimination in the marriage code. But we forget how incredibly conservative that particular election's turnout was--and we simply don't have the same excuse for Prop 8's recent fate. California voters who narrowly supported Prop 8 also rejected the anti-choice Proposition 4 (despite it also being neck-and-neck in the polls), approved a bond for high-speed rail (Proposition 1A), and crushed Proposition 6 (the Runner Initiative) despite the state's general "law and order" reputation.
We need to face the fact that Prop 8 passed because a lot of liberal people voted for it--swing voters who should have known better, if only they had the right message.
These swing voters like to think of themselves as "tolerant." They believe they support gay rights, but are not always comfortable thinking much about the issue. They have a "live-and-let-live" approach, and don't appreciate any group of people indoctrinating their worldview on the rest of society. For a while, the "No on 8" message worked well with this crowd: it is morally wrong to have religious extremists impose their definition of marriage on the rest of society, singling out groups of people who don't apply and depriving them of a basic right. Telling them the Mormons were funneling $20 million into the Prop 8 campaign was an especially effective message for this group.
The problem happened when the Prop 8 campaign--through blatant lies and deceit--changed the subject into gays and lesbians imposing their agenda on our elementary school children. Suddenly, the people who were "indoctrinating" people who have a "live and let live" attitude was the homosexual agenda. It became apparent to me a few weeks ago when I was phone-banking for "No on 8." I spoke to a black woman in San Francisco's Western Addition who was dead-set against gay marriage now that she had been scared into believing we were imposing our lifestyle on her. And when people are afraid, it's hard to make them listen to facts--especially if they don't know you.
One of the basic lessons in activism is to not react to a problem when it comes up, but to be pro-active and frame the agenda. It's not like right-wing extremists haven't used the "gay marriage will be taught in our schools" line before, and the campaign should have been ready to anticipate such attacks. As far back as 1998, the first ballot proposition to ban marriage equality in Hawaii had a TV spot with a small child reading a book about two fathers--and he then gets confused. The message back then for swing voters was the same message California swing voters got now--"will my kids have to learn about it?"
Another basic rule is to anticipate what strategies the opposition will come up with to lure voters, and to preempt them with your own overtures. Gay marriage supporters were not happy that Barack Obama said he believes marriage is "between a man and a woman," but he rarely got credit for going further than any presidential candidate had gone before. He supports fully repealing the Defense of Marriage Act, and - more importantly - he came out against California's Proposition 8. Knowing that Obama was going to win the state comfortably, "No on 8" should have stressed Obama's opposition from Day One.
They did not, and it allowed the Prop 8 campaign to get African-American voters on their side by leading them to believe that Obama supports Prop 8. As I've written before, the black vote was critical in this race. Polls showing Prop 8 either ahead or behind hinged almost completely on whether African-Americans strongly supported it--or barely supported it. Aggressive overtures needed to be made to that community, and there was no better messenger in this election for this group of voters than Barack Obama.
Instead, "No on 8" waited until the other side made their own hit piece that implied an Obama endorsement of Prop 8. By then, we were being reactive.
Finally, I did go to the "No on 8" campaign office in the Castro as often as I could--but quickly became frustrated at what they were asking volunteers to do. I was happy talking on the phone with swing voters--which was useful and effective--but they seemed more interested in having us do visibility in San Francisco, going to strongly liberal (even gay) parts of town to make sure our base knew they had to vote "no." Rather than preaching to the choir, we were told this was useful because much of our base was confused--that some supporters think they're supposed to vote "yes" on Prop 8 to affirm gay marriage.
I don't doubt there were a few cases of gay people in San Francisco who were confused, and accidentally voted for Prop 8. But this appeared excessively anecdotal and reactive, when I was far more interested in being pro-active and effective in getting work done. Ironically, it turns out that a percentage of our opposition was equally confused--if not more so, which made the issue a wash. When I dropped "No on 8" literature in East Oakland, I ran into an African-American woman--who said she would vote "no" on Prop 8 because she "really didn't want" gay marriage being taught in public schools.
It is now 4:22 a.m. on Wednesday morning, and Prop 8 is still up 52-48 with 90% of precincts reporting. Now that discrimination has been enshrined in our Constitution, it will require another vote of the people to have it repealed. I don't doubt that with the state getting younger, future efforts at marriage equality will be successful. But I can't help believing we have seriously blown an opportunity in this election to give the right wing a stunning defeat--one that would forever leave them on the ash heap of history.
We need to start now to organize ... and this time, let's do it right.
Paul Hogarth is the Managing Editor of Beyond Chron, San Francisco's Alternative Online Daily, where this piece was first published.
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Obama/Biden are the reason 8 lost. prepare to be sorely disappointed in the next 4 years if you are in any way for progressive ideas.
nonsense. period.
Obama split the difference by saying he didn't support gay marriage but didn't support Proposition 8 either. We're supposed to praise him for not just taking the first position?
"You are neither hot nor cold and I shall spew you from my mouth."
People here saying Obama should've done more, frankly, you're all wrong.
This article was dead-on. This race was No on 8's to lose. They SUCKED
Yes mobilizers were faster, larger, better funded and better organized and by the time No on 8 people caught up they were running on a roughshod strategy and playing defense.
Take nothing for granted, work hard every day and ALWAYS operate your campaigns as hard as Obama's did in the presidential.
Agreed. I know everyone expects Obama to fly in like Superman to save everyone, but the fact is Prop 8 was a state issue, not a national one. Obama gave his opinion on it, he did say "no" to 8, and that's all he should have done. Activists could and should have run with it to ride the coattails of his popularity, but they didn't. I think it sucks that so many California voters felt it was necessary to write a ban on same-sex couples rights into their constitution, but it's not my place nor Obama's to tell people how to run their state.
actually, making a law that says some tax paying citizens have a right while other citizens do not have that same right is unconstitutional... it isn't about states rights or the citizens of a state deciding how to govern their constituents. the rights of the minority are not subject to the whim of the majority. period. majorities can't vote in favor of slavery and have it upheld, or to remove a groups right to vote. similarly, they cannot vote to deny rights to a segment of society that are freely enjoyed by everyone else. it isn't a religious argument. one's religion is free to be against gay marriage, but since every person is not of that exact same faith they cannot make their religious dogma the law of everyone. separation of church and state. freedom of religion.
Obama chose not to lead in a battle with nationwide importance. That's the bottom line.
no one reason is 100% responsible, but there is no need to deny that Obama didn't provide leadership for Black community on this issue.
Black folk cannot be made the scape goat on this...
there were many other problems with it
Prop 8 lost, Tom McKlintock (foothills and part of Sacramento) won, and Al Franken's senate contest is still a tossup with a few hundred votes giving the lead to Norm Coleman (automatic recount in progress).
One of the worst things enlightened voters can do is demonize the opposition -- read "Nixonland" to see how the Republicans have turned resentment against such condescension into a winning strategy.
The good news is that Obama appears to have cracked that particular code. The bad news is that lots of people still voted for McCain, McKlintock, Norm Coleman, Mitch McConnell and their ilk. We can't fight them and win. We have to persuade them.
BTW, the Sacramento Bee's surveys suggest that the poor and black women provided the largest proportional support for prop 8. Of course there was lots of blue collar support for Reagan too, primarily because '60's protesters were more interested in celebrating their egos than persuading the opposition.
"Of course there was lots of blue collar support for Reagan too, primarily because '60's protesters were more interested in celebrating their egos than persuading the opposition."
That's blaming the victim. It makes more sense to actually blame the blue-collar workers who supported Reagan.
"One of the worst things enlightened voters can do is demonize the opposition -- read "Nixonland" to see how the Republicans have turned resentment against such condescension into a winning strategy."
Huh? Demonizing the opposition is exactly what conservatives have done for the past forty years. THAT was the "winning strategy" they had for the last forty years, until they tried to push too far too fast in these last eight years when they actually started believing their own bullshit about this being a conservative country.
But yes, presenting things from a progressive view and connecting the issues with REAL American values (empathy, strength, responsibility, cooperation) actually works better than screaming "He's a FASCIST!", even if he IS a fascist.
Prop hate won because America lets stupid people vote. Pure and simple.
Grow up. Prop 8 was passed because progressives still don't understand that arguing against something is just as effective at reinforcing the message as arguing the message itself. People vote for things that are consistent with the way they see the world. If they're afraid of something and that fear is reinforced by the mesage they're hearing, they'll vote to protect themselves form that fear coming to pass. they're not stupid, they're just not being connected with in a way that helps them see it from our point of view.
Btw, if y'all HAD brought it from a viewpoint of the anti-miscegenation laws, it might have had a better effect on the black community
Thank you, Paul, for clearly describing what I always suspected - dems, progressives, whatever-you-want-to-call-it, seem to have an ingrained nature of resting on our laurels. Sort of a dumbfounded approach to - "well OF COURSE Californians want to allow same-sex marriage, it's just the right thing to do." We often forget how easily the our media-soaked electorate can get infiltrated with misinformation. We still must accept that that messaging is king and thus media is king and thus money is king. Doesn't it always come to that? But, ultimately, the voters are glued to TV and internet, letting that inner couch potato root, drinking in whatever soundbites come at us - just like the conservatives have been cultivating for years. We've got such a mess to clean up, I don't know even know where to begin.
Great post. Good work. I'm very proud of all that you do for San Francisco.
As someone who lived through the No on 9 campaign in Oregon, I can say that our state (narrowly) defeated that proposition through the strong ground work of the volunteers. They traipsed through the entire state and found supporters in some of the most conservative counties. I agree that CA liberals were asleep at the wheel, and No on 9 didn't have a monumental presidential race to compete with, but take heart that there is much support throughout CA for gay marriage - not just the coastal regions.
Just face it. If Obama wasn't such a coward, he could have LED on this issue and African-American voters would have followed.
Instead he did nothing to help. He gave contradicting statements of his position and repeated often that he believed marriage is between a man and a woman.
The landslide national results clearly show that he could have led on this issue and not been hurt at all. The only conclusion to draw is that Obama thinks like his African-American constituents: Gays don't deserve equality.
Thanks for nothing Obama.
It pains me to say this, but Obama has been behave like a politician, and the huge turn out of Black vote decisively helped prop 8.
I agree, I'm very disappointed at Obama on this issue, he has been coward on this, I don't know if he is a homophobe, but he absolutely provide no leadership when needed.
Its sad, and it darkens the whole idea of America, as liberal and hopeful as Obama, GLTB people still get no respect.
I see no hope for this country as far as GLTB are concerned.
It shows America as a whole, are still too far behind and going backward.
Its a shame.
Obama, I hope he won't be just another politician, but he might just be one.
Obama as homophobe? Didn't i hear him say something in his acceptance speech about all Americans "gay and str8t" and the cheer that greeted it? Did you hear his MLK Day speech when he castigated the black community for still being homophobic? (That was basically when he read the black community the riot act and said that when he was elected, there will be no free rides!) So back off Barak!
Hate to break it to you, but Obama may actually not agree with us on gay marriage. I lived in his district when he was our State Senator, and I remember being vividly disappointed that he was against gay marriage, even though he was representing one of the most liberal areas of a very Democratic city, in a very blue state.
Anyone who thought he was going to lead on this issue was completely deluded. Organizers should have learned from '04 that gay issues, when framed in ballot initiatives, are potential third rails for politicians and it's up to grassroots efforts to educate the public.
I think it's interesting that black women and poor people supported prop 8 because those are two demographics whose institutions of marriage literally are crumbling. You are much, much more likely to be the product of a broken home if you're poor or black than if you're college educated and white. Too bad the yes on 8 campaign tapped into that fear so effectively.
Obama's apologists remind me of the liberals who kept making excuses for Bill Clinton 15 years ago.
I know alot about the african american community. No matter what Barack Obama said they would Not have followed him on this initiative. If anything he may have made some blacks more hesisitant with this issue. It's unfortunate, but it's an issue that is still divisive and I think he wanted to stay away from it. Especially after George Bush used it so often as a wedge over the last 8 years. No matter how much Black ppl love Obama...most wil always follow their pastor before the president. Period. It was just smart politics for him not too over reach on this issue.
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