No Longer Staring Into the Abyss of an Obama-Clinton Ticket

Obama's vice-presidential pick will not be the most important decision of his campaign. It pretty much never is, as illustrated by the complete futility of such past choices. For instance, it is hard to see what John Edwards, Joe Lieberman, Jack Kemp or Lloyd Bentsen brought to their respective tickets (three of the four weren't even able to secure their own home states.)

There is one choice Obama could make, though, that would have unwelcome consequences: Hillary Clinton, whose wildest, yet most truthful-sounding, rationale for staying in what is no longer a race is that she can step in if/when Barack Obama is murdered.

Not that, it seems, Obama has really been considering her as a vice-presidential candidate. But it can get confusing, especially with Bill Clinton in the role of the weakened bully leading one more charge on behalf of his wife.

Leaving aside the latest over-the-top Clinton moment, a disqualifier in itself, what in the world would Hillary bring to the ticket? Not deft management skills, judging from her 1990s health care debacle and her presidential campaign meltdown; not strong foreign policy credentials, with her vote in favor of the war in Iraq muddling what is otherwise a stark Democratic contrast with John McCain; not economic expertise, if her recent gas tax holiday proposal is any indication.

The Clinton campaign has remarkably successfully spun the myth of her strength among various demographic groups: white people, women, Latinos, lower-income people, older people and, of course, the now classic: hard-working Americans. In a couple of these cases, there is a shred of truth to the Clinton campaign's "analysis:" it is nearly certainly the case that she is dominant among older lower-income white women.

In any event, Clinton as a vice-presidential candidate would not have the ability to deliver any of these groups to the Democratic ticket, just like none of the other recent vice-presidential candidates have.

In early general election polls (yes, they are not that meaningful, but more telling than, say, Karl Rove's assessment, no matter what Clinton says), Obama is outperforming or matching John Kerry's general election performance in every state except for Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee and West Virginia. Yes, Clinton would help with Arkansas' six electoral votes. As for the other three, they have become irrelevant and would be lost in 2008 by any Democratic presidential candidate, including Hillary Clinton.

Conversely, Obama would risk being dragged down by Clinton in a whole swath of the Midwest (Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan) and, even more so, in several Western and Southern states, where he outperforms her by double-digits in match-ups. Florida remains the trickiest state for Obama, although, with six months to go, he has the opportunity to make up for Clinton's breathtakingly disingenuous charges of disenfranchisement.

Much was made of Obama's weakness in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Yet in both places he leads McCain, having already rebounded past where Kerry was in 2004. As of now, Clinton would do better than Obama in both states, according to recent polling. Knowing that at least three-quarters of her margin in the primaries there was race-based, do we really believe that those white voters who shunned Obama because he is black would vote for him just because Clinton, self-styled white working class hero, is on the ticket?

Obama was also declared uncompetitive among Latinos, based on some vaguely feudal idea that the Clintons owned the "Hispanic vote" (whatever that means), just like they owned the "African-American vote." The latest California polls show him leading McCain among Latinos by some 20 to 44 points.

The mainstream media's focus du jour, Jewish voters, hardly qualify as a swing group in any state that is competitive except for Florida, where Kerry's estimated 80% of that vote was not even close to securing him a win. Anyway, despite the amply covered anecdotal evidence of "hesitations" about Obama among Jews, he is only polling marginally lower than Kerry was in that group, and certainly not enough to jeopardize one single state.

Among Democratic white women over 50, Clinton appears to have built a strong core constituency as the campaign has progressed. But they now find themselves in the same place as many other demographic groups (from African-Americans to gay people): about to be taken for granted by the Democratic Party. Will white women really cross over and vote for McCain? He is just about as far as he can be from where most Democratic women want him to be, from the Iraq war to health care to abortion rights. This, of course, is also the man who publicly calls his wife a c***. It is hard to see Clinton's women supporters moving to McCain in droves.

The only benefit that would come from Clinton as a VP pick is perhaps the advantage for Obama of keeping his enemies closer (and that, ultimately, is what she has positioned herself to be). But one number continues to resonate more than any other: 60% of Americans do not trust Hillary Clinton; why would Obama even risk being tarred with the same brush? It is one thing to trade charges of naivete and recklessness with McCain; it is another to saddle himself with a VP considered an untrustworthy habitual liar by a strong majority of Americans.

Clinton's increasingly desperate quest for something, anything, to show for her decades of campaigning has taken on a vaguely insane turn, for which we should be grateful, even as it makes us queasy. Without it, the campaign would have ended months ago and those of us who weren't paying attention would not have had the full benefit of seeing week after week what a Clinton will do for power. And we may well have been staring into the abyss of an Obama-Clinton ticket, wondering why we had even bothered to get involved.

Follow Paul Jenkins on Twitter: www.twitter.com/PaulcJenkins

Comments

[desertbreeze]

Great piece! Well written and informative. As an older white woman, I can attest that not all of us are deluded by Clinton's lies. I have had little difficulty convincing my 94 year old mother and 89 year old mother in law to switch their support to Senator Obama. In fact, both started as Hillary supporters but by the time their respective primaries rolled around and they had a chance to see how vicious she is they both voted for Obama. Hillary is her own worst enemy.

[mairs]

He summarized everything I've been thinking. I am mystified as to why people still hang onto her as their greatest hope, defending the indefensible. I simply have to remember that the world is made up of all sorts of people, some of whom find her behavior admirable, for whatever reason. Some mistake brittle intolerance and egomania as "toughness". So be it.

[mairs]

He summarized everything I've been thinking. I am mystified as to why people still hang onto her as their greatest hope, defending the indefensible. I simply have to remember that the world is made up of all sorts of people, some of whom find her behavior admirable, for whatever reason.

[PAposter]

That piece was brilliant! Thank you Mr. Paul Jenkins.

What a way to start my day.

Obama/Americans '08

[Damon]

Hillary supporters telling here that people won't vote for Barack are really desperate, so desperate that they wanna persuade themeselves that no one will vote for him, so Hillarious...
Let me make it clear here: the real democrats, the core of democrats will vote for him, some of you Hillary supporters will vote for him, even some of you, the more desperate and radical of Hillary supporters will vote for him. A lot of independents will vote for him, a lot of republicans (the desperate Bush-McSame republicans, those who were against the war, and some others) will vote for him.

Most importantly, for several weeks his campaign has launched an incredible Registration "Vote for Change" all across the country, and especially in critical states, so delusional and desperate Hillary supporters, you'll be surprise to see what's gonna happen this November, with you on our side or without you, Barack will win, McSame has no chance, we're gonna change this country, you can vote for McBush if you want, too bad for you...

[PAposter]

I agree, I volunteered for him in the primary, I was so disappointed, although he didn't expect to win, I guess not with all the race baiting and "street money" from the Clintons.

I can't wait to be assigned an area to canvass for the GE. We will win, there's a ton of volunteers here and his campaign is so organized, Betsy Myers, who served as a Clinton White House adviser on women's issues is the Chief Operating Officer, she's amazing.

[jomira]

I think your statement is arrogant. Hillary supporters don't have to vote for Obama. There are alot of us who have problems with him. I don't see this change. I just see another politican who will say anything or do anything for a vote, weak senate voting record and another sexist who calls a professional woman "sweetie." You will be surprise to find that none of us are that desperate to have to vote for Obama.

[Liberoservative]

and I think that you are disingenuous when you vote for candidate and not for party.. they both have the good of America in their campaigns... just one got it over better than the other.... to not vote party is the true UNDEMOCRATIC thing to do..... if you want to get rid of corporate rule, military rule, greed rule over the country... then you will vote Democratic this year... if you want to pay 10 dollar a gallon for your gas in a couple of years.. then vote Republican.....

[researcher]

well we will find out if obama is a fool and should not be president. if he selects hill then he is a fool and only cares about winning an election. he does not appear to be a fool.

if she is on the ticket i will vote for nader or the lib guy. never hillary never.

besides it is not so bad if mc cain wins we can have another war so he can earn the respect of his grandfather and we can have all the oil in iran.

oil in the future will be like black gold and mc cain smells gold. i mean oil.

we americans deserve that oil after all we are americans and besides if we bomb iran israel will not have to bomb them. they are our buddies and we are a superpower so bombs away.

god bless america truly a christian nation.

[pilgrim7]

I understand how you feel. It would be a big letdown for those of us who sincerely believe Obama represents change only to see his putting both Clintons back in the White House in the event of his assassination.

[JudgeCrater]

God bless the First Amendment.

[AxelDC]

Does Obama want to wake up every day for the next 8 years and worry about having to answer for every stupid thing that Bill or Hillary have said that day?

She has been a nightmare, saying the most outlandish things that she cannot possibly believe. It's bad enough to be on the receiving end of her ballistics. As soon as he adds her to the ticket, he becomes responsible for everything those two loose cannons say and do.

Obama would be a fool to offer her the VP slot, and Friday she proved exactly why he cannot afford to have her on his team.

[elevens]

Excellent piece of writing Mr. Jenkins.

[newzzzjunkie]

President Obama wants change in Washington. There's nothing new about Hillary and her politics, except that she is dirtier than most. I pray that Obama WILL NOT put her on the ticket. Just say NO Barack...no please, please, pretty please NO Hillary.

[PAposter]

I strongly believe that if Obama puts Hillary on the ticket he will lose more votes than he will gain. I also seriously doubt that he will jeopardize his base voters. There will be no Hillary on the Ticket, and look for her to lose her re-election in New York, coming up in 2012, if she's not forced to resign before then.

[smayhew]

'Sweeties' - we don't want Clinton to be your little guy's running mate - since in doing so it will be the only way that he could win and we don't want him to win. A real writer put it best today:
Paul Krugman in today’s New York Times in an op-ed entitled ‘Divided We Stand’ - underscores the damage the Obama campaign has done, not only to Clinton, but to the party itself and the chance of a Democratic presidency, he says of the Clinton bashing:
‘Why does all this matter? Not for the nomination: Mr. Obama will be the Democratic nominee. But he has a problem: many grass-roots Clinton supporters feel that she has received unfair, even grotesque treatment. And the lingering bitterness from the primary campaign could cost Mr. Obama the White House.’
Like many people who are not drunk with 'Hope', I am fascinated by the manic Obama supporters who 'protest too much'. Scare us with the Supreme Court and we give you Obama's confirmation vote for Roberts! Scare us with Roe v Wade and we give you Barack courting the anti-choice crowd.
I’m working for the people who actually effect the law - my congress people. I may not vote for McCain, but I am deeply convinced that Obama is a dangerous choice for the presidency and for women in general and and and several million others will never vote for him.

[sherbug]

I hope you vote for your best interests. How did Obama divide the Party? How did Obama damage anything? He ran a clean race, while your candidate "threw the kitchen sink". She did everything she could to divide the party and judging from your post, she has at least you ready to tear the party down because she lost the race.

You and all the other angry women will make is hard for any other woman to run and win a Presidential nomination. We won't be able to trust that should she loose, she would loose without typical scorched earth behavior. You epitomize the scorned woman which does not help Hillary or the cause for women.

Why would you say Obama is a dangerous choice? Are you one of the one who believes he's a Muslim that has spent the last 20 years in a Christian church? Or...could it be that he is black and that rubs you the wrong way?

[BeingFrank]

I agree 100% with you Sherbug,...

Smayhew, or anyone who would call themselves an American citizen but would allow the country to continue down to ruin, because their candidate of choice lost the nomination, would be better off living in a dictatorship because their understanding of the great responsibility and honor it is to have the privilege to Vote, is as lost on them as a spoiled child who would rather break their toy rather than have another child play with it.

Voting should require an education or license.
It’s too great a power to leave in the hands of the ignorant or the deceptive.

It would make an interesting book subject as to why Clinton kept so many of the illogical, short sighted, narrow minded, naïve, and totally self absorbed with her all the way to the big flush.

I know I started not being able to wait until she Ran,.. however now I can’t wait until she vanishes down that porcelain bowl to where her campaign was based after Iowa.

[AxelDC]

You'll be surprised how quickly his demographics problems vanish as soon as Clinton stops acting as a 5th Column for McCain. Most of the groups she claims will never support him are only doing so out of loyalty to her. Meanwhile, can you imagine a black voter turning back to Clinton after the way she and her husband have trashed them? Even if they get 70% of the black vote, it will seriously depress their chances in the fall, and ruin hopes of Democrats down the ballot.

Obama's biggest problem demographically are among the bigots of Appalachia who say they will never vote for a black person, or someone of mixed race. Yes, she would do better among them, but frankly, I'd rather lose than really on the David Duke vote.

[lostonbridgetofuture]

I see no facts to back your assertion "several milliom will never vote for him." I know polls are a snapshot and many factors could change betwwen now and november, however a current state by state poll shows Obama doing quite well thank you.Usa Tracking poll head to head Obama vs. Mcain: Obama wins CA,CO,CT,D­E,HI,IL,IA­,ME,MD,MA,­MI,MN,NV,N­H,NJ,NM,NY­,ND,OH,OR,­RI,VT,WA,W­I. Mcain wins AL,AK,AR,A­Z,FL,GA,ID­,IN,MS,MO,­MT,NE,NC,O­K,PN,SC,SD­,TN,TX,UT,­VA,WV,WY. of the 2 ties TX and NJ I split the difference and assumed they would vote same historically. The math breaks down to this Obama 277 Mcain 260. Although a little more difficult without the Clintons support and help,It is possible for an Obama Victory. For the record my wife and I are both "working class whites" and in the very red state of SC. we both voted for Obama, your streotypes don't apply to everyone.

[vippy]

Clinton is old time Washington Politics, we don't want more of that. McCain, well he
is not going anywhere for he is a fool. Guess he spent too many years in confinement.
If the GOP is worried about him, then we should all be glad. He is not going anywhere.
Obama is the only one that makes sense. Of course, I would have loved Ron Paul or
Dennis Kucinich or even Mike Gravel for that matter, if we really wanted change.

[Daisy1111]

smayhew.

Good points. Especially on the Roe v Wade argument.

I agree -- as a Hillary supporter I hope she doesn't take the VP spot.

[lizr]

Krugman, who I used to admire greatly, has, like the Clintons, squandered his reputation by defending this campaign in its most indefensible moments. and in doing so has proven to be just another media hack.

I do not say this happily.

In fact it is very sad.

[uclafan]

I hope not, but I wouldn't be surprised if she ended up on the ticket. Dianne Feinstein may push the issue.

[sk7326]

What is more likely I think is that he gives Hillary extra consideration in vetting the choice. That is, the veep will be DLC friendly. Maybe not a full fledged Blue Dog (one would hope not), but one of her supporters. Not sure what sort of short list you would want to make out of Hillary people (Rendell, Strickland, etc), but try to hav at it.

[funnyguy]

Wes Clark meets this prescription

[deb123]

Every cloud has a silver lining ... and I agree with your analysis 100 percent. I only hope the powers-that-be agree, as well. I understand HC's supporters loyalty -- after all, I feel the same way about Obama. I just hope, when all the dust settles, they will open their minds and hearts to accept Obama as the best choice over the Repubs to move our country in the direction it needs to go. We can't afford to cut off our noses to spite our faces on this one. There's just too much at stake.

[funnyguy]

Don't be so sure the great conciliator won't want to conciliate with the irreconciliable

[inspectormerlot]

Yes he absolutely will. THe question is how? If not VEEP, at least a very senior cabinet position.
Check out the report on Meet the Press of Obama's response to this:

MR. RUSSERT: Doris, in Boca Raton on Thursday, Barack Obama was asked about vice president, specifically about Hillary Clinton, and here's his answer, which talks about you
(videoclip)
Unidentified man: would you be willing to consider everybody who is a possible help to you as a running mate, even if his or her spouse is an occasional pain in the butt?
(crowd laughs – so does Obama)
SEN. OBAMA: I, I--well, look. Well, look, look, look. The--we've got a little more work to do. So I don't want to jump the gun. I will tell you, though, that my goal is to have the best possible government. And that means me winning. And so I am very practical-minded. I'm a practical-minded guy. And, you know, one of my, one of my heroes is Abraham Lincoln. And a while back there was a wonderful book written by Doris Kearns Goodwin called "Team of Rivals," in which she talked about how Lincoln basically pulled in all the people who had been running against him into his Cabinet because whatever, you know, personal feelings there were, the issue was how can we get this country through this time of crisis? And I think that has to be the approach that one takes

[PennP]

Biden, Dodd, Edwards, Richardson.....

[realityczech4u]

As I see it, if Obama were to put her on his ticket, he could kiss it goodbye. What needs to be taken into account is the vast number of voters who are not only for Obama but at the same time are vehemently against Hillary and how deeply their contempt for her runs. I personally still have questions about Obama's vision for America but even if I decide not to vote for him in the GE, I will always revere him for vanquishing Hillary for us. Words cannot express the debt of gratitude we owe him.