Obama and Democrats Fighting Hard on GOP Turf
Less than five weeks before Election Day, Barack Obama is taking the fight to scarlet red Republican territory, adding several states won by George W. Bush to his list of potential takeovers. In the process he is contradicting both conventional wisdom and the many pundits who assumed the fight would ultimately focus on the usual suspects, including Ohio and Florida. Democratic Senate candidates too are not shying away from previously unthinkable GOP targets, and they now have a shot at a filibuster-proof 60-vote majority. All told, 20 states are currently at high risk of loss by the Republican party in either the presidential election, the Senate race, or both. How is that for expanding the playing field?
The Obama campaign's confidence appears to rest on the fact that since April, well before he clinched his party's nomination, he has been ahead of John McCain in average general election match-ups for all but 10 days, right after the GOP convention produced a short-lived burst of excitement about Sarah Palin. At this point he appears to be ahead nationally by about 5%, about the same as Bush was around this time in 2004.
This advantage has been reflected in state polling: the 10 states most likely to switch from one party to another since 2004, according to current polling, are all states won by Bush four years ago. Two of those, Iowa and New Mexico, are all but certain to be won by Obama, who leads there by wide margins. The other eight most likely to switch are all too close to call and include such shockers as Indiana (Bush won by 21%), North Carolina (Bush by 12%), Virginia (Bush by 8%) and Missouri (Bush by 7%).
Practically, this means that Obama has far more paths to victory than McCain. In fact, besides Iowa and New Mexico, Obama needs to win just one other of the states most likely to switch to be elected president, even if he loses New Hampshire, the only state won by John Kerry that is currently at risk of flipping (Obama leads by 2.) For all the hoopla surrounding Ohio and Florida (which are also among the Bush states most likely to go Democratic), Obama could lose both and still win comfortably overall. That is not to say those states don't matter: McCain basically has no shot at the presidency if he does not win both.
McCain has so little room to maneuver because Democratic states long-targeted by his campaign have mostly been coming home to Obama in recent weeks: he leads by comfortable and growing margins in Michigan and Pennsylvania, for instance. It is not inconceivable that Minnesota or Wisconsin (both Kerry states) may end up being close again, but at this point there are more than a dozen Republican states that are at more risk of switching. One of them is West Virginia, in which recent polls have showed the race to be far tighter than expected (Obama down by 5%), especially since he was trounced there by Hillary Clinton in the primary, and Kerry lost the state by 13% to Bush.
Overall, Obama's improvement so far over Kerry's 2004 performance is such that he polls lower than the Massachusetts Senator in just one state: Massachusetts (he is still ahead by 18 points, however.) This, of course, means that McCain at this point is faring worse than Bush in nearly every state, sometimes shockingly so. In addition to Indiana and North Carolina, there are double-digit swings away from the Republican in places as red as North Dakota, Texas, Wyoming, Nebraska, Montana and Utah. Obama will most likely lose big in most of these places, but the symbolism of the shift is nonetheless powerful and shows that Democrats should not give up on any one state. If there has been any benefit to McCain's selection of Sarah Palin, it is that it blunted some of Obama's momentum in a few small Western states that had become unexpectedly competitive, including Alaska, the Governor's home state, North Dakota and Montana, in all three of which McCain had been unable to pull away until the GOP convention.
This Democratic strength is reflected in a growing number of Senate races. The picture here is just as depressing for Republicans: all 10 of the Senate seats most likely to switch are currently held by the GOP and seven of those feature incumbents running for reelection. Just one Democratic seat was thought to be at risk, that of Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, because of the state's increasingly conservative bend, post-Katrina demographic changes and a relatively strong party-switching adversary. In the most recent polls, Landrieu leads by an average of 15%, and the seat is now considered safely hers.
It has long been assumed that Republicans would have a tough time holding on to open seats in Virginia, New Mexico and Colorado, and this has borne out: the first two are done deals for the Democrats and Colorado is likely to fall too, although polling there is closer. Then there were the most at-risk GOP incumbents, in New Hampshire, Alaska and Mississippi, for a variety of reasons, but with one thing in common: strong Democratic challengers. Although these races have tightened, in two of the three the Democrat is still favored (Mississippi will be tough although not impossible for the Democrat, former Governor Ronnie Musgrove, who has fallen behind recently.) Two other GOP incumbents, in Oregon and Minnesota, have long been considered endangered, although they are fortunate to have somewhat flawed Democratic opponents, including comedian Al Franken, a pretty tough sell for Senator regardless of his actual capability.
Where it gets really scary for Republicans is the rapid disintegration of the reelection campaigns of two party elders: Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina and Mitch McConnell of Kentucky. In a matter of weeks, as the economic crisis has worsened, both have gone from solid front-runners to struggling for their political life. Two other Republican-held Southern seats are starting to look wobbly, a dim prospect in this deteriorating anti-GOP, anti-incumbent climate: in Georgia, where Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss has seen his once strong lead all but evaporate in a couple of weeks; and in South Carolina where limited polling is showing that McCain pal Lindsey Graham may have an unexpected race on his hands against a Ron Paul supporter turned Democrat. Look to Texas next for a possible surprise: Republican Senator John Cornyn has long been ineffective, unpopular and, well, dumb. His opponent, Rick Noriega, is underfunded but otherwise serious.
We have been told for so long that the Obama-McCain race is a "tie" (just as the debate was a "tie") that it is easy to forget that Obama's polling track so far has actually been even better than that of Bush in 2004. Bush and Kerry swapped leads throughout the summer until the incumbent president opened a gap in September that the Democrat was never able to close. McCain has never really held a lead in the general election. That said, while the race may not be a tie, or even that close right now, it is volatile, not least because of the dramatic economic situation. It also bears to remember that only one Democrat has won more than 50% of the vote in a presidential race since 1964, and that no Republican has won less than 48% in a two-person race (which this essentially is) also since 1964. That does not leave Obama a big margin for error, no matter how good things currently look.
Loading comments…
Want to reply to a comment? Hint: Click "Reply" at the bottom of the comment; after being approved your comment will appear directly underneath the comment you replied to
Smart move. If nothing else it forces McCain to spend money in states that should have been easy wins.
When the history books are written about the Elections in 08, the massive miscalculation of the various polls and their attempt to shape the electorate will be exposed as an absolute fraud. Rasmussen is on the top of my list!
I am following the great efforts of Texas Democrats. I believe strongly that Texas will go Democratic along with the Virginias. The polls are not capable of understanding the shift that has taken place in America: a younger issue conscious electorate and a rising movement for real change the like I have not experienced in my lifetime. So many people I know who have never participated in elections are registering and are tuning into the campaign news. It is astounding!!!
Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona will go Democratic. Why? Because the media has focused on the air war ( campaign ads via radio and television) and have ignored the ground war. Obama's organizational strength is amazing. This is why Hillary lost and McCain will suffer the same fate.
Obama-Biden 08
The first debate served Obama well and here's why:
http://thetruthburns.wordpress.com/2008/09/27/a-generational-debate/
The next two should as well, as Obama has substance - and plans - and McCain has little more than seething rage.
Forgive me for saying this because we can't be over-confindent or stop working hard. But I think it's no longer a matter of if Obama wins, but by how much. Let's put the pedals to the mental and drive this thing home for a real MANDATE FOR CHANGE. Bush, McCain and the entire Republican party needs to be repudiated in the strongest possible terms and I'm getting hopeful that we are going to do it. Keep working, keep talking, keep writing, keep giving money to the Obama campaign and the DNC. I can see 375 electoral votes. Let's do it! I'm getting so excited about this. Really hopeful. Barack Obama you are the man. A great weight is about to fall on you, but you're are our only hope to redeem us from this dark time and bring the United States of America back to it's true greatness. I get choked up just thinking about it. Let's push this to the limit and TAKE OUR COUNTRY BACK!
Wow!!! My sentiments precisely. I made a contribution last night before the deadline. let's hope he gets 140 million plus for this stretch of the campaign. All in all I agree that complacency is our number one enemy. We need to be pro active and ensure that our vote comes out on the 4th and we deliver those states.
Yes we can!!!
Everything is playing out pretty much as I felt it would. Have to be careful, however, because there's enough time left for McCain to make one more run at Obama.
We need not be over confident - we need overwhelming numbers so there is no doubt as to who WON!
Just remember every Obama supporter needs to show up at the voting booth. Because of Diebold I would go even further to say do a paper ballot if you can.
I would love love love to see a lot more of the truth come out about Diebold. I am really hoping to see that happen before the election. Woodward and Bernstein, where are you??
353 is how I see it.
But if Obama wanted he could get 356 with a trip to Alaska.
He probably should do a trip to Alaska to bolster his foreign policy experience.
And he could see Russia from there so it would be double the experience.
A trip to Alaska could very well eat nearly 3-5 business days. Not sure it's worth it. Maybe O should send Hillary there...
Hey--just joking. Don't jump all over me, pumas.
Maybe if he got close enough he could just look at it.
Why not? According to Palin, looking at a landscape is the same as knowing everything about it politically - especially if you see somebody's head flying through the airspace - then you get to be commander in chief!
Maybe he could stop there to refuel.
Much like the latter stages of 06 right before the elections, the chattering trolls seemed to have gone underground...hopefully for a very long time!
Don't forget that in even in those states Obama might not win, the Democrats could well win seats in the "down-ticket" races: Senate, House, governorships, state legislatures, etc.
50-State Strategy, baby!
I have a story to tell about the WV Republican primary that may shed some light on why McCain is doing so poorly there despite all other factors pointing to what should be any easy win for him in WV.
Back in February as the GOP state convention was getting underway the consensus among conservatives was that McCain would win the state primary easily. But then he just didn't show up at the convention. Romney was there, Huckabee was there, and McCain sent a surrogate from New Orleans that dissed WV. He said he'd much rather be back in N.O. celebrating Mardi Gras than addressing the WV Republican convention and he even had the nerve to make a disparaging comment about WV losing a championship football game in the preceding days. Stoopid. The Republicans turned against McCain with a vengeance. They reorganized their votes on the spot to pull out a Huckabee win. I know this because I was working an assignment in the state legislature that week and that was the talk of the town in those few days.
West Virginians don't forget and they don't forgive. While Obama supporters are becoming increasingly optimistic, the Republican support for McCain has been underwhelming or non-existent. Expect to see most of WV GOP staying home on election day or voting secretly for Obama.
Thank you Obama team, and thank you Howard Dean for your 50-state strategy.
Look for more southeastern states swing from red to blue due to voters' anger over gasoline shortages. This has been going on for three weeks now and people there are really mad and they are really complaining about their elected officials, most of which are republican.
You gotta hand it to the Obama team, they are the smartest and most honest campaign group
in the history of the world. . They succeeded in taking down Clinton with all her huge sums of
money and insider connections. . And now he is taking down the GOP, one state at a time.
Anybody this smart would sure be refreshing in our old white guy dinosaur government.
If there is a future for us - Obama is the guy to lead us there.
well said Jenny.
Even in colo spgs, CO, there's a different wind in the air. There's only a handful of McC's signs and bumperstickers. Heck, B ush's stickers out number his. This area will probably go to Mc C out of habit more than desire, but the rest of CO maybe very different.
In Minnesota there aren't many McCain signs because there have been a number of people stealing them and spraypainting them . . .
Maybe you should stop doing that Viking. I mean if you want to create drama, why not be like mccain and tell your neighbors your going to suspend your breathing until Nancy stops picking on those wussie gop frat boys!
I havent seen anything like this in the Minneapolis Star...are you sure about this Viking or are you now going to take the same road as mccain and palin and just make things up as you go along?
Dare we believe the GOP in this country will go the way of the once feared Vikings? And the Obama team is the team to make that happen.
GObama/Biden '08/'12!!
You must be logged in to reply to this comment. Log in