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The Disintegration of John McCain
The near-annihilation of John McCain by the Bush clan in the 2000 presidential GOP primary left him with one critically important asset: his reputation as an unconventional and principled Republican. This, of course, was precisely what the hard-core conservative crowd wooed by George W. Bush disliked about him. But it was what appealed to independents and moderate Democrats, and so the McCain brand was successfully launched nationally despite the stinging defeat.
The brand thrived over the next eight years, even as McCain himself moved ever-closer to Bush and to mainstream conservative Republican politics. The perception of McCain as a non-conformist straight shooter endured even as he adjusted his muddled positions on the war in Iraq, immigration, the environment, among others. The McCain brand even survived this year's Republican primary, thanks to a crowded field of clowns that included Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney, both of whose views were even more unintelligible and even faster-changing. McCain's supposed "independence," bolstered by a media drunk with adoration for him (and sometimes just plain drunk), became even more valuable, and not just in New Hampshire, his political home away from home. It also helped elsewhere, as Bush's popularity was hitting historic lows in early 2008, including in South Carolina, where McCain's 2000 campaign had ended in a racist flame-out orchestrated by Bush associates. McCain narrowly won this year's primary in that state.
But now, the McCain brand is showing signs of disintegration and is at risk of a meltdown. Barely a few weeks after the end of his primary, McCain finds himself trailing Barack Obama by all measurable standards. National polls giving Obama the lead tell some of the story: McCain is at his lowest point against Obama since last Thanksgiving, a dark time for the Democrat himself (he was way behind Hillary Clinton.) In addition, John Kerry never lead Bush in 2004 by this much and for this long after the primaries had ended.
However, it is in the media coverage, the fundraising, and state polls that the cracks are most visible and surely frightening for a McCain campaign that hasn't exactly been humming along to begin with.
While the mainstream media hasn't quite caught up to the real world, it has had little choice but to report both McCain's inanities on the campaign trail, and the Obama camp's constant, hard-hitting attacks. Even still-enamored journalists cannot fail to notice that it would be difficult to find a candidate less suited for the times or the office than McCain right now. On Iraq, he is ueber-hawkish, confused and nearly demented in his denial of the reality, years after the American public has soured on its folly of a war. He admits understanding little about the economy at a time when it is the biggest concern of US voters. He has found a way to alienate both the anti-immigrant majority and immigrant-friendly voters by shifting a fairly reasonable position mid-campaign. He has been in Congress for 26 years at a time when everyone wants change. He is so completely technology-illiterate that he would be unqualified to apply for a single job in the United States that pays in the double-digits hourly. He is embarrassed, uncomfortable and inconsistent when talking about same-sex relationships in a country that has seen a sea-change in its attitudes towards gay people and diversity in general. His cultural references are mysterious to 90% of the population, except for his love for Abba (a group that disbanded in 1981) thanks to a third of fourth revival and a new movie.
In short, McCain's time came and went. The fact that he succeeded in the Republican primary is a testament to the weakness of the field, the desperation of GOP voters and insiders, and plain luck. His campaign overcame near-bankruptcy thanks to his wife's generous contribution of her private jet (and to the loophole created by McCain in the campaign finance law to allow for just such generosity.) This should be of little comfort to him (besides the affirmation of his wife's love and ambition), as the same problems that plagued McCain in the primary are undermining his general election fundraising. He hates asking for money, doesn't know the Internet exists, and can't manage finances except when he is broke (and then there is nothing to manage: you just fire everyone.) And it shows in the grotesque discrepancy in funding between him and Obama, which, in turn, will mean that as his brand is crumbling, McCain does not have the resources to bolster it.
In early polling, Obama is a stronger candidate than Kerry was: in only one state, Tennessee (??), does Obama currently perform less well than Kerry did against Bush. But the problem is deeper than that for McCain: his popularity has peaked among independents (he now lags Obama in that group by 46% to 39% in a recent Gallup poll). This means that a previously unimaginable group of states are now in play. In the most recent polling, Obama is tied with or leads McCain in Virginia, North Carolina, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska (in two Congressional districts) and North Dakota. Obama leads McCain, often comfortably, in Colorado, New Hampshire, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Oregon, Minnesota, Washington, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, among perceived "swing" states. There are only half a dozen states in which McCain leads Obama by more than 10% (Bush won 22 states by that margin), and they do not include Alaska, Indiana, Kansas, or Montana, all sites of 20+% Republican blowouts in 2004.
Until the end of the GOP primary, McCain was plagued by the true maverick in the race, Ron Paul, who was still getting one in five votes well after the race was settled. Paul is not done, promising to wreak havoc during the convention in Minneapolis, rallying legions of anti-war, anti-government Republicans in an attempt to influence the platform and, collaterally, to embarrass McCain. In the general election itself, McCain will have to contend with former GOP Congressman Bob Barr, running on the Libertarian ticket. This means that conservative voters and libertarian-leaning independents will not lack for choice, right at the moment when McCain is struggling to capture the magic of his sixties, when HE was the one running against the system. Or at least when he managed to con many of us into thinking he was.
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If this country was serious about prosecuting TREASON, there
would be no free GOPers left.
But I'll take an OBAMA landslide as a solid 2nd choice.
A major clue to why McCainnow, is Bush's accusation yesterday that the gas price crisis is the Dem's fault! This is indeed the GOP's way of getting out of Dodge and leaving the new guy to clean up their mess. And being able to short-circuit every good solution O comes up with. My country, 'tis of thee, I weep.
McCain elected to embrace the shrub.
That stink isn't gonna come off now.
It hasn't for anyone else stupid enough to do it.
Makes you wonder what Condi sees her future prospects being ?
McCain has a reputation alright but its more than just politics. How can conservative Republicans vote for John McCain who abandon his first wife Carol at the time she needed him most, for Cindy. How can any family man or woman with any moral backbone vote for McCain. He is a disgrace to the American family.
http://joeland7.wordpress.com/2008/06/08/beware
I voted for the 1st time in 1976, and broke w/generations of Dems in the family, and voted for Gerald Ford. Carter won.
My dad died when I was 12, so I think I saw the President as a "father figure," to lead all of us, and keep us the Greatest Nation on the Earth...
I voted against BushSr the 2nd time, becuase of "ReadMyLips." Perot had some good ideas...
Clinton was a Dem, and a womanizer.
I voted for GW both times, thinking he seemed a bit simple, but appeared a good, solid leader of my generation...
And like so many other failures of the PeaceNLove generation, we dropped the ball with Clinton AND GW.
I'm ashamed how GW is more a disgrace, every lame day.
My parents are laughing from above to see me wholeheartedly changing course.
I can't stand the thought of some old, feeble, flip-flopping, geezer running our country.
I no longer need a father figure. I need a COMPETENT adult.
I awaited MY generation's chance to run the country, "dad's time" was now my time...
It took the next generation to make it OUR time...
Go Obama.
Difficult to find a candidate less suited?????
Not for me!
How about
Rude E
Tom De Lay
Pat Robertson
Trent
Newt
I think the reason the GOP let Dole in 1996, and now McCain be their standard bearer is because they really don't want to win this election. Like Dole, McCain's only reason for running is because "it's his turn", nothing more. No vision, no policies, no convictions.
Bush/Cheney have plundered, and stripped the government of revenue until it's virtually useless. FEMA, FAA, FDA, ,FHA, VA--nothing works. The Republicans have absolutely no competence, and no accomplishments domestic, or foreign to run on. They don't want to clean up the mess they've created, and they know they don't have any new ideas or answers, so they've sent out McCain to take one for the team. Come on, with a grumpy old man promoting a cut taxes, shrink government, and "don't get sick" healthcare plan agenda, they know they won't get any non-zealot votes. This is a guaranteed landslide defeat--and they're cool with that. I think that's the reason that the donors aren't giving any serious money to McCain--necessitating him having to use public financing. The GOP want very little out of pocket expenses, and will let the taxpayers to finance this sure defeat. Their final insult to the American people. Brilliant.
The Republicans just wants to pack up their loot, and get out of Dodge--leaving Obama and the taxpayers to pay all of their bills. Ingenius.
Like waterboarding, they will allow the victim "the middle class" to breathe a little air, then slam our heads back under when their's more to steal from us. They will form a shadow government lurking underground waiting to make a come back. Money can always wait out the progressives. Fighting fascism is an endless fight.
I agree, JC! I think the GOP has McCain positioned as a "throwaway candidate," so they can scream shrilly at the next Dem president/Congress ... for all of the things BUSH & CO. instigated and now need to be cleaned up. Their hope will be to pull a fast bait-n-switch and act as if all of the problems are due to the Dems in power, hoping Americans are memory impaired or stupid.
This also "gives McCain his turn." After November, when poor John is spanked like a Republican Congressman at Fetish Night at the Mustang Ranch, he can be politically shelved with impunity, in the future.
I live in the Houston area and when McCain came to Houston he got a welcome mat laid out for him. They love John McCain here, just like BUSH! SAME THING CLONES.
This city that ENRON resided, this city that is packed full of OIL corporations. They cheered him on, If I knew he was coming here I would have went and held up a sign asking about the ENRON LOOPHOLE ACT .
Apparently the farm bill that McCain voted against had this loophole in it for ENRON and that is why he voted against it. His policies need to be investigated by the media, just because he is old dosen't mean crap. He is running for President, this is the last person besides another BUSH we need at this time.
The big oil Corporations and the neo-con's in this city are the only ones supporting this old worn out man. Everyone keep the faith, VOTE in NOVEMBER to end this misery.
Mother Earth has a good expose' about McCain and Phil Gramm showing the Enron deregulation timeline and the litigation sponsored by Gramm.. The Savings and Loan fiaso was tied to Niel Bush. The actions of James Baker - all of this is a web from Texas. Even the manipulation of the energy market in California, the invasion of Afghanistan for pipelines was connected to Enron and Texas.
ATTENTION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! This news just in!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! George Bush just came on television yesterday and announced that he has found weapons of mass destruction in IRAQ...................Wow...It took this long to find them...................................OIL
Keith Olbermann did a whole segment of his show on this subject last night: How McCain is eyeball deep in the Phill Gramm/Enron/"speculator" scandal. The MSM REALLY needs to jump on this story & expose ALL of these criminals & their corrput activities, AND to PROVE that these 3 entities are the TRUE reason for our astronomically high fuel prices!!! Off-shore drilling ain't goin' to help us ONE TINY BIT in lowering gas prices...EVER, not after these 3 demons got done skrewing us over!!!
And, you're right, included in the Farm Bill is the provision to CLOSE the Enron/"Energy" loophole; which is PRECISELY why Barack Obama voted FOR the bill the other day! Which, BTW, the "president" tried to veto for the 2nd or 3rd time yesterday!!!
WOW, do WE have a lot of "house cleaning" to do this November!!!
The candidacy of Sen.McCain reminds me of how failing corporations so often,through their board of directors, place hasbeens and wannabe corporate ceos in power,give them a lot of phoney hoopla,and watch as they preside over the inevitable colapse they know is commimg.History shows this happening also in dying nations.Some examples,and there are many are Packard Motor Co.International McCormick Corp.Montgomery Ward,Germany,France,Italy,etc.
I have very little confidence in either of the present candidates and was considering not voting at all,but in the long run I will probably vote a straight Democratic Ticket for the simple reason that some of their candidates seem to have the impetus to think or act out of the box that is leading to our very likely total collapse.
McCain is in bed with ENRON...he will never be elected..
Want to know why oil is out of whack....listen
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3036677/#25252591
In our two party system, we inevitably see 1/3 vote Democratic, and 1/3 vote Republican. The winner will be whoever can get most of the 1/3 in the middle.
It is difficult for me, as someone who voted for Reagan, to see how anyone could vote for McCain this time around. However, logically, I know that it remains possible that he can win.
I can imagine flying monkeys but it's not 'logically...possible.'
Of course there are flying monkeys, but only in the land of Oz.
I've seen several posts in the last couple of days that put forward the idea of a new Republican candidate emerging later on, with McCain shoved aside. One person called it an October surprise. I wonder how plausible this theory is---anyone here think it will happen?
If it does happen, it will be someone like Gingrich - who will rally the Republican base, but equally disturb the moderate Repubs/conservative independents. The success of that move will depend on how negative the campaigning gets between now and then.
I think it will happen for two simple reasons:
1 - He cannot win. By the time November rolls around, if McCain's still the nominee, we will be looking at a Reagan v Mondale magnitude landslide.
2 - More importantly to the Repugs, he can't even rally their base. If their candidate can't get the base excited, if enough die-hard Republicans stay home in November, the Republicans will lose a LOT of down-ticket congressional, senatorial, and local elections. They will be virtually thrown out of power.
Republicans can handle losing a Presidential election every once-in-a-while (it would only be the 4th since '68) they can't afford to lose all of their power in other branches of government. For this reason, McCain will develop some health-related reason to drop out and the Repugs will assign someone who is on good terms with their base.
My personal opinion is they will pick Huckabee. He's ueber-christian, but in all other ways is friendly and non-threatening. He'll lose the election, but he'll get enough die-hard Republicans out to stem the losses in down-ticket elections.
Just think about all the people who could find jobs in a McCain WH.
Ahmed Chalabi
Judith Miller
George Tenent
Scooter
Brownie
Wayne & Garth
Condolezza
Tommy Franks
Aren't you just excited!?!
Senator Lieberman could become Ambassador to Israel. Oh, that's right, he already is.
Here's some interesting reading and background regarding Iraqi regime change proponents, and Ahmed Chalabi, Bill Kristol, John McCain, Marshall Wittman, Joe Lieberman links:
http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=23c3a0ff-9d55-4d28-a94e-0b0e09e26505
Marshall Wittman was McCain's advisor in 1999, and is now Lieberman's 'key aide'...hmmm...
I honestly believe that John McCain would further endanger this country.
For the last several years, I've seen article after article by politicians and military officials saying we need to reinstitue the military draft in America. Last October, 12 military officials who had served in Iraq said a draft will be necessary just to maintain our forces in Iraq.
With McCain as president, the draft is much more likely. It's also more likely that our new soldiers would get on the job training under a McCain presidency.
Many people are missing the signs and by the time they wake up it will be too late.
Read the articles I've collected here and spread the word:
http://www.stopthinkvote.com/facts/militaryfacts.html
Talk of a draft is necessary so that the mothers of this country will finally stand together and demand an end to this war. If we have been complacent, you will see that end when the GOP tries to conscript our sons and daughters to fight an illegal, immoral, and totally unnecessary war.
The draft issue should be front and center in any debate about the war.
Please do not leave out the defacto draft called stop-loss. The government is already choosing to not honor the conclusion of it's signed contracts with current serving "volunteers" and forcing them to stay against their will.
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