Antidotes to Complacency: Four Reasons to Not Take the Election for Granted

It's tempting to begin taking the likelihood of Obama's victory just a bit for granted. The polls look good. McCain and Palin are flailing, and Ted Stevens is headed for jail. The Republicans have started their blame game.

But it's dangerous to assume that the election is over, or to settle for a narrow margin. Here are four reasons to keep doing all we can to keep working (and get our procrastinating friends to finally donate and volunteer) so we can create broadest possible mandate for Obama and his Democratic allies.

A MANDATE FOR CHANGE: It matters hugely whether Obama wins. It also matters whether he wins by one percent or eight percent, and by 5 electoral votes or 105. Because the crises our country faces are too grave for tinkering around the edges, we're going to need major legislation or action on a host of critical issues, from the economy to health care, Iraq and global climate change. Republicans are going to resist most of these initiatives, so the more votes Obama has, the more leverage he has to argue that his election represents a mandate and convince the wavering couple of swing Senators he'll may need that if they don't respond, they could lose their seats next round. And of course the more House and Senate seats the Democrats can take, the more ability they'll have to overcome Republican filibusters and pass the most progressive possible versions of key legislation. The wider the margin in all of these cases, the more Obama can deal with America's multitude of unaddressed festering crises.

But we can't take even a narrow victory for granted, for three reasons. And since the actions we need to take are the same as to increase the Democratic mandate, it's wisest to assume a neck-and-neck race where a few hundred votes could determine the outcome, as they did in Florida and New Mexico in 2000, and in a 129-vote Washington State governor's race in 2004. Here's why we need to work for the widest possible margin of victory:

VOTER SUPPRESSION: Though they've hit some setbacks, Republican Secretaries of State and officials in state after key state are doing their best to eliminate as many newly registered voters from the rolls as possible. They're purging them for administrative typos (like misspelled names), for not checking redundant boxes, and for failing to respond to registered letters from the local Republican party. They're implementing restrictive ID rules and stirring up alarm about non-existent fraudulent voters. Since we don't know how many voters they'll succeed in deleting or deterring, we need to turn out as many Democratic supporters to the polls as possible, and arm them with the best possible information to ensure their vote will count.

A VOLATILE ELECTORATE: Palin may be dissuading moderates and independents, but she's still turning out a sizable Republican base. Obama's base is larger, but his margin lies primarily in the record numbers of new voters who support him, particularly young, African American, and Latino voters. Because they're unused to turning out at the polls, their participation is more uncertain. The more we remind them and help them navigate the obstacles, the more likely they'll turn out.

OCTOBER SURPRISES: There's still the possibility of Republicans conjuring up a last minute pseudo crisis to stoke the fears of the electorate. They've done that before, manufacturing last minute Soviet threats, Al Qaida threats, even Nicaraguan threats, that melt away the moment the votes are in. Al Qaida has recently come out saying they'd prefer a McCain presidency--there's even some chance they could launch a terrorist attack in support of that end. And of course there's the Bush administration helicopter attack that killed eight people in Syria--had Syria retaliated in kind, we might have had a major Middle East confrontation. That doesn't count the remaining barrage of attack ads, with the chance that some might unexpectedly work. We can avoid all this by working to turn out voters now, particularly with early voting and widespread mail voting, and then continue to do so until the final polls close..

Our grassroots efforts really do matter. I've seen my own help tip Senate and Gubernatorial races of astoundingly small margins. But to help create the maximum possible political shifts, we all have to do our part.

History doesn't stop on November 4th. We'll need to continue working to push the Senate and Congress and push Obama to do all that's needed for our country. The more we do now, the more favorable the likely political landscape from that point forward.

Paul Rogat Loeb is the author of The Impossible Will Take a Little While: A Citizen's Guide to Hope in a Time of Fear, named the #3 political book of 2004 by the History Channel and the American Book Association. His previous books include Soul of a Citizen: Living With Conviction in a Cynical Time. See www.paulloeb.org To receive his articles directly, email [e-mail] with the subject line: subscribe paulloeb-articles

Comments

[oldmiler]

I'm not prone to thinking that everything is gonna be alright but I do have a bunch of confidence in Obama as a candidate and President. Each of Loeb's concerns are real or at least highly probable but none excludes this candidate's ability to assess and respond appropriately and with foresight.
As far as a mandate goes, just getting elected -- the first black man in US history -- will have such momentum to likely sweep even a few Republicans along with it. Think Hagel, Powell for two who by their cooperation will make it seem like a mandate. Plus Obama is smart enough to never use the word like Bush did when reelected.
Obama seems ready to contest any election irregularity. He has lawyers, guts and money. (Sorry Warren Zevon) He'll fight when Kerry or Gore wouldn't.
A first attempt at an October Surprise was the economic crisis turned bail-out. Otherwise why was it timed like it was and how has it been played by White House like it has. Urgent but then not so urgent. It was a false crisis and it failed to unseat Obama's campaign because he is better at crisis management AND politics than McCain and his handlers.
I appreciate Loeb's insights and I am as anxious as the next guy voting for Obama, I just think we are already as close as we are because we have the candidate we have. He's that good, that smart, that clear-headed.

[MagisterLudi]

You were moving soe smoothly thru; the usual Laudamus Te talking points, but then the boat struck a reef:"it was a false crisis. " The financial crisis that engulfed the entire world is a false crisis? Think man, think!!!

[Sevensea]

Thank goodness for a bit of perspective (at last).

There has been a lot of self-delusion on Huffington over the last few weeks about Obama being a lock to win on Nov 4.

Much of this is due to a selective analysis of polling. Many blog contributors have got carried away with Obama's lead in battleground states not spotting that the states with the strong Obama leads were either Kerry states that he would have to win in any case(e.g why so much excitement over McCain pulling out of Minnesota?) or small red states with few Electoral votes (increasing risk as Obama would have to win a few of them).

The big states (Florida,Ohio) have been much closer*. I would suggest ignoring the RCP averages on these as they have often been skewed by unreliable small sample polls with huge Obama leads.

If you look at the big picture the margin is close enough for racism, and undecideds breaking for the supposedly 'safer' candidate, to cause problems. Furthermore previous elections HAVE shown large swings at this stage for McCain to win:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ynews/ynews_pl101.

*However, good news from yesterday - Rasmussen (although Republican the only poll I would trust for state polls) is at last showing Obama ahead in Florida/Ohio.

[Rinid]

We should not sign out unless it is over. Go vote! Keep the conversation going.
Paranoia is good for the country.

Meanwhile
Do play our game We the Decided 2008©.
http://mypakragames.com/games/we-the-decided/

After you play, if you share your data and “be counted”, then until next Tuesday, you can come back to see the Analytics (our poll numbers based only on positions on issues as stated in each of the candidate's website.)
Enjoy!
Cheers!

[SangZe]

we're losing ground, folks, and there's still a week to go. If the Democrats can't win this one, the party should be disbanded, but they seem to be trying very hard to make this happen. Just think how wonderful life will become under a McCain-Palin-Bush administration. Then vote!

[Girl28]

Well put. I voted early, but I still feel a responsibility to make sure that all of my friends and family get to the polls as well. I'm very concerned about voter suppression, and corruption. The GOP is not going down without a fight. That's why it's so important that we are not complacent. Especially young people and minorities, because the republicans are banking on us not showing up to the polls.

[Yermammy]

If you haven't noticed, they are. Read international news, from news sources OUTSIDE of this country. You can expect an attack on Ir an shortly. Jus' sayin'.

[MagisterLudi]

A certain segment of population has been predicting an attack on Iran for 3 years now. These folks remind me of the Apocalyptic crowd: any earthquake triggers Pale Horse sightings. Same here. An attack in Syria? IRAN!!!
Israel buys a new weapon? IRAN!!!

[MagisterLudi]

I, at various times, read BBC, Izvestia,Vechirniy Kyiv, Al jazeera, Haaaretz, Spiegel, Allgemeine Zeitung etc.
Funny no mention of attack on Iran anywhere. But by "news sources outside of this country" you probably mean a few blogs and Is_lamic propaganda sites.
Strangely enough, the people who claim to oppose the war with Iran, are fantasizing about it incessantly. There must some psychological explanation for it.

[Paul Loeb - Huffpost Blogger]

The Syria attack does seem like a definite provocation. I'm hoping they won't bite and fall into Bush's trap

[MagisterLudi]

A take down of an Al Qaeda operative in Syria is a "definite provocation on Iran?" This contention defies credulity. Then again, you've been predicting imminent attack on Iran since 2006. Without result. By the way I agree that attack on Iran would highly counter productive. I'm just not sure that scare tactics to score a political point is what this country needs right now. I know it's difficult to give up on a talking point, but when reality calls, one should answer.

"With the Senate embracing the reckless Kyl-Lieberman amendment, we've moved one step closer to attacking Iran."

"With the Bush administration taking increasingly provocative actions toward Iran... and the sharp escalation in bellicose rhetoric it seems clear that they're at least considering a military strike."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/paul-loeb/preventing-an-iran-wara_b_40862.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/paul-loeb/preempting-the-next-war_b_66554.html

[MagisterLudi]

Strangely enough, the people who claim to oppose the war with Iran, are fantasizing about it incessantly. There must some psychological explanation for it.

[RRG64]

Voted Today.
Vote NOW.
Vote EARLY.
This is not over.
They will try to steal it in the courts.

Obama needs a definitive landslide victory
to mute any false claims made by the Republicans.

[moonwatcher]

Every night Access Hollywood or the Insider gives an interview with Palin or with her family. Personally, I have switched channels so as not to get her propaganda. The woman doesn't answer questions but she is given a free ride every night. If Obama gets elected it will not be because of the media. These shows claim they are entertainment but they are more like commercials for the McCain-Palin ticket. It's time to get rid of these shows if that is all they have to offer. They have a captive audience on the public airwaves.

[jmbates]

Powerfully agree. Option: mybarackobama.com - register and get lists of people to phone from home. Press on until the end!

HOWEVER, we are a LOT smarter than the last time Bushies stole the country. Any bizarre last-minute international "crisis", any unreasonable totals for McCain, and I will call on all Americans to join me in the streets in front of the Capital and White House.

NOT THIS TIME!

[SocialistDistortion]

Uh...we better get on the ball here, folks. Turns out all those hundreds of thousands of newly registered dems...uh yeah, they're not showing up early in the numbers originally thought.

Don't get complacent, god help us if we blow this friggin thing...

[maestra08]

The McCain/Palin negativity machine ratchets up a notch every day, working hard to keep the troops from becoming complacent. Did you watch the CNN instant response lines during the last debate? Every time McCain made negative remarks, the undecided voters' response went south. Yet his handlers didn't pick up on it.

[proreality]

I wonder what's going on with trying to provoke Syria? We still got Iran sitting there waiting to be antagonized into lashing out. It seems these people that we continually vilify have more good sense than a large portion of Americans. They obviously understand what's trying to be done and didn't come back with a knee jerk reaction. Maybe we should be thanking Syria instead of vilifying it.

[Yermammy]

That's the smartest thing I've read all night. MY pick of the night!

[MarieMarie]

I guess we should just let Syria keep sending guys in to kill our military, at least until after the election. That's a wonderful way to shape our foreign policy. They get to kill our guys if we're in election season; no retaliation, no self-defense.

[MagisterLudi]

They obviously understand what's trying to be done and didn't come back with a knee jerk reaction.
Didn't come back with a knee jerk reaction?????
Lets count knee-jerks of Syrian junta:
Knee jerk1: The Syrian cabinet decided to close a school for children. Their guilt? The school is in English and some American children attend it.
Knee jerk 2: Closed U.S. culture center.

Syria is accusing US of "surprise" attack. But Syria for years have been rejecting US requests to arrest Abu Ghadiyah by claiming that they're "aware of his activities." Obviously not enough to arrest him or stop him from conducting terrorist activities and murdering Iraqis and Americans.

[PatrickforO]

The voter supression is the worst. We are neck and neck. Don't ever be complacent, and keep working the phones, knocking on doors and taking people to the polls until the very end.

[GayGrandpa]

Well I guess...but on the other hand...things are happening behind the scenes take Iran for example...suddenly the President is sick...how convenient..as if he had any real power anyway...of course, the real power reflects Bush with another right wing dick head cowboy leader...now that things are changing and it is obvious, CONVENIENTLY THE IRANIAN President falls ill...surprise surprise!