As media commentators proclaim Hillary Clinton's rebirth from the ashes of defeat, they miss a critical story -- Obama and Edwards won the New Hampshire primary. Add together Obama's 36 percent and Edwards's 17, and they beat Clinton's 39 percent by 14 points. And because the Democratic primaries have proportionate representation, they'll in fact come out with more combined delegates -- 13 to Clinton's 9. Though polls are elusive, I've talked or corresponded with hundreds of supporters of both of them, pored through hundreds of blog responses, and from everything I can tell, those backing Obama or Edwards solidly pick the other as their second choice. So if only one were running, they'd be opening up an unambiguous lead. But because Clinton's two main opponents have effectively split the vote, her three-point victory over Obama has revived a campaign that seemed on the verge of meltdown just a few days ago, and left her again the media favorite.
So what are Obama and Edwards or their supporters to do about this? First, remind those covering the race that although Clinton got a split-vote plurality, most Democrats still don't prefer her as their nominee. Some serious polling could help to verify the convergences between the Obama and Edwards supporters and their shared discontents, and maybe we could encourage that.
Real political differences separate Clinton from both Edwards and Obama, and we need to at least try and get the media to talk about them. All of these candidates have their flaws and strengths -- on global warming, for instance, they all have excellent plans. But John Edwards wasn't just being rhetorical when he said that both he and Obama represent voices for change, versus Clinton's embodiment of a Washington status quo joining money and power -- albeit a far saner status quo than the crazed Bush version. Clinton recently held a massive fundraising dinner with homeland security lobbyists, and has taken money from Rupert Murdoch. Her chief campaign strategist, Mark Penn, is CEO of a PR firm that prepped the Blackwater CEO for his recent congressional testimony, is aggressively involved in anti-union efforts, and has represented everyone from the Argentine military junta and Philip Morris to Union Carbide after the 1984 Bhopal disaster. Clinton supported an Iran vote so reckless that Jim Webb called it "Dick Cheney's fondest Pipe Dream," and did so, according to her campaign insiders, because she was covering herself for the general election. She's still not apologized for her Iraq vote, and her hoarding of scarce 2006 campaign dollars may well have cost the Democrats an even larger Congressional victory.
Those who make up the Obedwards constituencies recognize the problems with so many of Clinton's approaches and stands. That's part of what's driving them, along with a genuine passion for Obama and Edwards, and a sense, confirmed by the polls, that either of the two has a better shot at beating the leading Republicans than does Clinton. If we look just at delegates, both Iowa and New Hampshire advanced the Obedwards combined cause. But because the coverage has focused so exclusively on the Obama/Clinton match-up, they've missed that a solid majority of Democrats in both New Hampshire and Iowa rejected a candidate who a short while back was proclaiming her nomination as nearly inevitable.
If all those wary of Clinton coalesced around Obama, he'd become the odds-on favorite to become the Democratic standard-bearer. But at least for now, Edwards is staying in. I think he genuinely wants to keep raising fundamental issues about how divisions of wealth and power have damaged our democracy -- and the people left behind without health care, jobs, or hope. He's also hanging in there in case his message belatedly catches fire, or both Clinton and Obama unexpectedly melt down. So at least for the moment, the Obedwards constituency may keep amassing a majority of elected delegates, while making it more difficult for Obama (or a far longer-shot Edwards) to become the clear front-runner and clinch the nomination.
There are some partial solutions, though, even with both in the race. Beyond reminding the media of their convergences, Obama and Edwards could also keep using their speeches, debates, and ads to highlight the real differences they have with Clinton and her approach, while minimizing their attacks on each other. Of course their main message needs to focus on their own strengths and visions, and the issues about which they feel passionately, but they also need to draw some clear political lines.
Edwards has begun doing this. Obama needs to do it more, and respond more forcefully to the Clinton campaign's attacks and distortions, like their misstatements of his record on Iraq and abortion choice. I think he can do this while continuing to flesh out a more specific vision of what he stands for, in stories that people can understand.
It's a tricky dance, since Hillary, Bill, and their surrogates will continue to dismiss any criticisms as "the boys" ganging up on the woman. This narrative indeed seemed to work when Clinton's tears set off a wave of sympathy and female solidarity that most likely swung New Hampshire. But so long as Obama and Edwards keep talking about real issues, and do so in a civil way, I think Hillary's complaints about being picked on will yield a diminishing return, especially if they highlight the Clinton campaign's own history of attack dog politics--like their successfully killing a major negative story in the men's magazine GQ by threatening to deny the publication future access to Bill Clinton for a separate cover story they were writing.
But the fundamental fault lines in this campaign are about whose interests the candidates are likely to heed, and they need to be articulated. Think back to Clinton's six years on the Wal-Mart board, during which she said nothing to protest the company's relentless union-busting and destruction of small-town businesses. Obama, meanwhile, was working as a community organizer, and then at a law firm that represented local organizers. Edwards pursued and won lawsuits on corporate malfeasance. The two of them need to highlight the links between their past history and their joint refusal to take donations from lobbyists, and their strong and early stands for fundamental campaign finance reform: Obama pushed a major bill while still in the Illinois legislature -- Clinton signed on only after Common Cause ran a full-page Iowa ad. They should also challenge Clinton's argument that the way to make change is to reduce our expectations and hopes.
Obama and Edwards could also make an even more explicit alliance. Each could pledge, for instance, to nominate the other for Vice President, or publicly state that if no candidate got an absolute majority going into the Democratic convention, whichever of the two trailed would throw their support to the other. Given the rules on proportionate representation, this would allow both to keep campaigning as passionately as possible without falling into the trap of political spoiler.
This last might be particularly attractive to Edwards, since otherwise, those who feel he'd still be the best candidate really do face the choice between risking helping Clinton defeat Obama, or eroding their support for Edwards so much he'd have little choice but to leave the race. Edwards might not even have to make a formal pledge, but just to keep reminding voters -- and the media -- that if no candidate gets an absolute majority before the convention, he'd encourage his delegates and those of Obama to join together at that point. The approach is probably less likely for Obama, because he still has a major shot without it, but he might consider it if the votes continue to divide and we end up with gridlock.
Most likely, all three candidates are going to stay in the race, at least for a while. Even if Obama does not prevail outright, if he and Edwards keep gaining delegates at their current rate and can convince the uncommitted Super-Delegates to respect the will of the voters, they should go into the convention with enough combined votes for one or the other to win. The more they can keep reminding us all how much their supporters want a politics no longer ruled by money and fear, the more they'll increase their odds.
Paul Rogat Loeb is the author of The Impossible Will Take a Little While: A Citizen's Guide to Hope in a Time of Fear, named the #3 political book of 2004 by the History Channel and the American Book Association. His previous books include Soul of a Citizen: Living With Conviction in a Cynical Time. See www.paulloeb.org To receive his articles directly email sympa@lists.onenw.org with the subject line: subscribe paulloeb-articles
If there's such a small difference between the three leading candidates, you'd have to explain why you're so opposed to Hillary's campaign. I'll bet you can't do that, without our finding out some embarrrassing things about you, Mr. Loeb.
ENOUGH VOTING JUST FOR CELEBRITY, "CHARISMA" & SCHMALTZ dispensing capability! "SUBSTANCE OVER FORM" SHOULD BE OUR NEW BATTLE CRY!
It'll be very, very nice to shed the worldwide embarrassment, & finally have a "Pres" that can string 2 sentences together coherently (& do it sans teleprompter or stage manager pulling the jaw strings, or masking the frequent foot-in-mouth gaffe guffaws!). But ALL our present candidates - & many, many other very experienced & capable Dem's - from BOTH Genders, and nearly ALL Ethnic backgrounds, can do that; to the Cube value of what we've suffered through for 2 terms now! We really need now is someone that combines Statesmanship with Leadership; shows some Spine & Courage Under Fire; Won't cave to the special interests, & in NO ONE'S POCKET!
"NO MORE AIR-HEAD PUPPETS!", must be our new
"Mantra"!! Time to stop peeing on ourselves, & "rally 'round the flag", gang.
But just keep up the petty bickering, vs serious thinking & dialog, & you - AGAIN! - "open the barn door"; for the Thoroughbred to escape, & the Jackasses to take over, for another miserable 4-to-8.
Although I'm a diehard Edwards supporter because of his stand on the issues, standing up against corporations, and standing up for the middle class, if it came down to the choice between Barack and Hillary, Barack would be my second choice. Again, thanks for stating the obvious!
Maybe Edwards needs to consider this passage from Romans in the Bible:
"The good that I would, I do not do, the evil that I wouldn't, I do..." St. Paul
Obama was encouraged by George Will to run. He supported Lieberman against Ned Lamont. True later, when he thought Lamont would win, he endorsed him . Flip flop. Enter... Kerry. So now spineless Kerry has endorsed him. WHY? Because Obama's going to "turn the page." What freakin' page? If I hear one more lofty meaningless over-bloated sound bite from that rhetorical establishment puppet, I'm going to scream!
This is a sneaky ploy to equate Edwards with Obama in some twisted argument (read, "drop out, Edwards") that together they can beat HRC. FYI: Any third candidate combined with any front runner will defeat the other front runner. Duh. Do you think we're dumb?
Edwards people, please don't buy this. Don't listen two it. The differences between the three candidates are vast. Hang in. There are nine long months to go. Time enough to birth a revolution.
Go Edwards!
And please, please send him your money. Please!
The name of the game is: "TAKING BACK the White House; along with a solid working majority in both Houses of Congress!
Instead, you're getting so heatedly locked in to personalities & pre-positioned, you're missing the Forest for the Trees!
The vast majority of you are totally overlooking the most obvious resolution to what's shaping up as a "Brokered (Demo) Convention": Draft AL GORE, the first and highest popular vote getting elected nominee who never served, because the Power Elite of this nation screwed us all over, by reversing the popular will & negating his election! Then let him indicate which of the several other highly qualified "Apprentices" - from a purely balanced experiential basis criteria - would serve as VP, and a great future Pres.
Given the number of Independents - our national "Swing Vote" - PLUS disenchanted Repubs that he would be unequivocally acceptable to, you'd have a steady, totally reliable hand at the helm of our currently somewhat floundering "Ship of State".
But enough of the entrenched mentality back-biting; we've (i.e., Demo's) still got the best, most qualified people in the nation to choose from. Lets learn a lesson from our recent sorry history, & not play into the hands of the "divide & conquer" skullduggery Party, yet again.
PHASE 2 OBAMA AND EDWARDS HOLDING HANDS IN THE DEBATE, WHAT DID OBAMA PROMISE?
PHASE 3 KERRY DISSES EDWARDS AND OBAMA GETS KERRY ON HIS BANDWAGON. SO THEY WERE MADE FOR EACH OTHER. THEY WILL FAIL. TO GET AN ENDORSEMENT FROM A LOSER IS TANTAMOUNT TO FAILURE.
No one stands up for these people....generally speaking. I think it is a HUGE stretch to suggest they will jump to OBAMA. Hillary will reach out to Edwards' supporters and, if they can get past the brainwashing, they'll realize she stands for EVERYONE...poor whites & african-americans...
Hilary was active in a number of organizations concerned with the welfare of children after law school ---often worked for FREE and was the first female partner at Rose Law Firm in 1979 and was listed as one of the one hundred most influential lawyers in America in 1988 and 1991. Hillary advised the Children's Defense Fund in Cambridge and joined the impeachment inquiry staff advising the Judiciary Committee of the House of Representatives.
President Jimmy Carter appointed her to the board of the Legal Services Corporation She chaired the Arkansas Educational Standards Committee, co-founded the Arkansas Advocates for Children and Families, and served on the boards of the Arkansas Children's Hospital, Legal Services, and the Children's Defense Fund.
If you are humorless that would be considered funny.
http://votesmart.org/bio.php?can_id=WNY99268
Organizations:
Co-Founder, Arkansas Advocates for Children and Families
Board Member, Arkansas Children's Hospital
Board Member, Children's Defense Fund
Awards
-Humanitarian Award, Elie Wiesel Foundation
-Women Who Make A Difference Lifetime Achievement Award, Family Circle
-President's Award, League of United Latin American Citizens
-International Women's Philanthropy Award, Lion of Judah Conference of Combined Jewish Philanthropies
-Distinguished Bridge Builder Award, Leon H. Sullivan Foundation
-Recognition, Military Order of the Purple Heart
-Distinguished Service Award, National Association of Elementary School Principals
-Bully Pulpit Award, National Council for Adoption
-Black Women of Courage Award, National Federation of Black Women Business Owners
-Martin Luther King Jr. Award, Progressive National Baptist Convention
- Secretary of Defense Medal for Outstanding Public Service
-Woman of Steel - Role Model of the Year, United Steel Workers of America
-Arkansas Woman of the Year-1983
-Arkansas Mother of the Year-1984
Hillary won many admirers for her staunch support for women around the world and her commitment to children's issues.
There are custody issues as well. A private firm has access to every memory card and chip. The head of the company considers security concerns have been addressed if he hires "dumb programmers". I kid you not.
If you believe the results of this election then there's a bridge you might be interested in.