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The Biggest Global Health Threat of the 21st Century

Posted: 04/ 8/11 06:04 PM ET

Recently a commission run by The Lancet named what they called the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. HIV/AIDS? Nope. Heart disease? Not at all. Cancer? Keep trying. To get your head around the biggest health threat of all, you might have to change how you think about health entirely. That's because the biggest threat of all, in the view of this blue-ribbon panel, was climate change.

In the last few years, leading medical professionals have begun to speak out about the extraordinary threats climate change poses to human well-being. The American Academy of Pediatrics stated in Pediatrics, its professional journal that "children are likely to suffer disproportionately from both direct and indirect adverse health effects of climate change." The American Nurses Association described the challenges of global climate change as "unprecedented in human history" and called for nurses to "speak out and advocate for change." Cecil Wilson, MD, the president of the American Medical Association, stated at a congressional briefing that climate change could cause "devastating events with serious human health implications."

How can our warming climate affect our health? In some surprising ways, as we describe in our new book, Changing Planet, Changing Health.

  • Warming temperatures allow disease-carrying mosquitoes to spread out of the tropics and higher into the mountains, bringing malaria, dengue fever, and other currently tropical diseases with them. And we're not immune in North America: Dengue fever (breakbone fever) has moved from central America northern Mexico, and warming climate has brought Lyme disease to New Hampshire and Maine, is more than eight-fold as common than it was a decade ago.
  • Devastating heat waves like the one that baked Chicago in 1995 and the one broiled Moscow in 2010 will become more common. Climate models project a blistering heat wave like the one that killed 739 people in Chicago in 1995 every summer, on average, by the 2040s.
  • Extreme rains and snows will be even more common, like the deluge in 2010 that swamped Nashville with 13 inches of rain in a day. Health risks of flooding include drowning, respiratory diseases from mold and diarrheal disease from poor sanitation.
  • Red tides and other harmful algae blooms in the warming coastal ocean can cause severe nausea, vomiting, and even paralysis and brain damage to swimmers, surfers, and those who eat contaminated shellfish. In 1987, for example, 150 people on Prince Edward Island who ate contaminated mussels were poisoned by domoic acid, an algal toxin that kills brain cells. All suffered vomiting, cramps and diarrhea; some suffered serious memory loss and seizures; nineteen were hospitalized, and four died. In Florida, emergency room visits already rise during red tides.
  • A warmer, drier West is melting the snowpack early and turning forests become tinder. Bark beetle infestations that wipe entire stands of trees worsen the risk. Forest fires can kill, and smoke inhalation from forest fires heighten the risk for heart attacks, asthma and respiratory problems in susceptible people. In one study following severe wildfires in Florida, complaints of chest pain increased by 37 percent, asthma by 91 percent and bronchitis by 132 percent.


In Changing Planet, we also describe a full set of technology and policy solutions, each carefully vetted to provide maximum benefit for human health and the environment. We need a smart electrical grid that will increase efficiency, reduce demand and use renewable sources like wind, solar and geothermal at many homes and businesses rather than get power solely from a centralized power station. We need to move away from nuclear, coal, even with carbon capture and storage, and corn-based ethanol, all of which harm human health and the environment. These choices are based on extensive studies called life cycle analyses that look at the true costs of a technology or energy source from cradle to grave.

Policies must change as well. We need to rejigger the international financial system to encourage countries to invest in measures that protect their environment and the health of their citizens. To promote good health in the 21st century, we need to become resilient and adaptable.

 
 
 
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09:39 AM on 04/18/2011
Why is Al Gore so silent about climate change? The author of this article can come back and demand action when China and India etc. get their act together and really help with pollution? Did I forget to mention that world population will destroy us long before climate change does us in?
10:54 AM on 04/13/2011
My goodness, you are going to look silly if the climate keeps refusing to warm up as those behind the IPCC desperately wish it to. They have bet a lot on this phony crisis, and you are amongst their victims. Which is a pity.
12:38 AM on 04/12/2011
As global climate change is classified as the biggest global health threat of our current generation, it calls for a drastic movement to deal with the changes we will see. It is too late to prevent climate change from occurring, and it is more important to focus on how we will adapt to what climate change will cause. Although it is unfortunate, these kinds of changes that directly affect humans are what we need to help people see that a change in everyday behavior is the only way to start a bottom-up movement that policy makers (those who can truly help us) will react to. In some ways, this idea that climate change will be a global health threat may be beneficial to helping the human race see how desperate our situation currently is.
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dragonmaster
08:27 PM on 04/11/2011
Climate change in itself will cause a multitude of diseases as climates shift north. Multiple climate change disasters will also begin to break down the fragile health network that now exists, since it benefits mostly the well off and not the poor. The USA and its wretched health care system will be as vulnerable as a third world country for those having little or no access.
01:53 PM on 04/11/2011
The attempt to persuade people to make a change, is mostly heard on deaf ears, because most people haven't yet been effected by the climate change. The only to make a change, is to force a change! People need to ban together and make government officials makes laws to inforce new regulations on everything to improve and reverse the side effects that we have made to the environment. Greed and ignorance has created this problem, and only by eliminating these, can we create something better. Change won't be easily accepted by most people, but what is? But until we all jump on the band-wagon and work towards a brighter future, then all we are doing is talking to deaf ears.
11:28 AM on 04/11/2011
All the media in the world couldnt actively persuade enough people to even slightly change their lifestyle. Not until things are rationed and they can actually feel and see the crisis in their front lawn will they even bat an eye lash.
Times will change dramatically whether we like it or not. Humans more than likely will move on in forced change, there just won't be nearly as many of us.
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08:44 AM on 04/11/2011
Sorry if this comes across as petulant, but I think the only place left on the planet that isn't full-on trying to work out ways to survive the coming climate catastrophe, is the U.S.

The spin factories are relentlessly putting out noise to keep doubt alive, but they cant stop the reality. The consequences of global climate change aren't necessarily apparent in our weather but, more and more, the instability is becoming perceptible.. It's getting pretty serious and this is just the beginning.
10:19 AM on 04/11/2011
i keep asking myself why i live in this country. i really hope i get the courage someday to move myself and my family to a country that produces healthy food, bans dangerous chemicals that harm our children, is not run by greed, power and ignorance, and actually cares about the health of people, widlife and the planet...
01:59 PM on 04/11/2011
I completely agree with what you are saying and ask myself the same thing. I just don't know enough about other places to make a choice on where and if, there is a better place. I've heard some good things about the Domincan Republic though. The U.S. has alot of professional people saying that there's nothing going on, mother nature is just doing what she does and we have no effect on it. Until we stop blaming everyone else and start accepting our failures, then nothing will ever change.
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07:28 PM on 04/11/2011
In 1975 we'd had the first oil crunch. I Thought about the consequences of a global collapse and decided that my birthplace, England, wasn't a good bet if it happened. Between 1975 and 1988 I emigrated 5 times as I tried out different countries ( including the U.S.). I now live happily in a south pacific paradise called New Zealand and thank my younger self every time I think about it.

Emigrating is easy. You just buy the ticket and get on the plane. I will say that it's harder for Americans than most. The rah-rah indoctrination is intense and tends to create a xenophobic world view. The good news...? That's a lot of crapp! Come on in, the water's fine. :p
06:11 PM on 04/10/2011
These medics will see the light, especially as and when the generous funding for all things 'climate crisis' starts drying up. Here is one alarmist who has seen the light: http://opinion.financialpost.com/2011/04/07/climate-models-go-cold/
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relians
the interconnectedness of all things
02:37 PM on 04/11/2011
climate change deniers are counter productive and subversive to humanity.
10:58 AM on 04/13/2011
Far from denying climate change, I recognise it as an intrinsic part of our atmospheric system. A system in which it has so far proven impossible to detect any weather-related impact of the recent rises in CO2 levels. I have never actually come across any 'climate chnage denier' - they seem to have been invented as a convenient focus for soundbites by political subversives intent on harming humanity via phony environmentalism.
Genders
Love, Tolerance, Enlightenment
06:10 PM on 04/10/2011
Close,a but wrong. Poverty, enslavement and serfdom are the great health threat. With prosperity, fitting the incredible productive capacity automation and tech provide, even global warming and climate change will kill very few.
luminavi
Love kicking over anthills on both left and right.
02:50 PM on 04/10/2011
China is building two new coal-fired energy plants PER WEEK.

In the interests of combating global warming and maintaining public health, why don't we break off trade ties with China, impose an embargo, and ban all outsourcing and offshoring, until China gets its carbon footprint under control?

The U.S. could shut down all its cars and power consumption for a YEAR, and within that same year, China and India would've replaced its carbon footprint with the expansion of their own. And we'd all be choking on smog from China. By 2030, China will have a bigger carbon footprint than pretty much the rest of the western world combined.

There'll be higher prices on toys, clothes, electronics and other junk. Less profits for the Walmarts and Targets and malls. But maybe it'll lead to lowered unemployment here, less junk to fill our landfills with, and stronger global efforts for environmentalism and energy conservation.
Genders
Love, Tolerance, Enlightenment
06:14 PM on 04/10/2011
The Chinese are also investing far more in green energy than the USA. The will catch up and surpass the USA and the world in clean energy very soon. Study the Chinese, they love the natural world.

China is already "mining" their dumps.

rooftop solar, offshore wind, and waste bio char bio fuels are the future. China gets it more that the US does.

But it's always nice to have an "enemy" outsides your own group.
09:42 AM on 04/11/2011
India has one of the lowest per-capita emissions in the world (ranks 100th or so among nations):

Per-Capita Co2 emissions for 2009:

World: 4.473 tons per person

US: 17.669 tons

North America: 14.188
Eurasia: 8.254
Middle East: 8.098
Europe: 7.130

China: 5.823

Asia & Oceania: 3.519
Central & South America: 2.554

India: 1.375

Africa: 1.127

See the following:
EIA, DoE: http://tinyurl.com/co2eia09
IEA: http://www.iea.org/co2highlights/
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JWerner
Beware Macduff; beware the thane of Fife!
12:58 AM on 04/13/2011
Per capita, meaning per person, India's at roughly 1/3 the US, with 3x the population, which would put India's output at roughly the same level as the US. I think something's off here. . .maybe my math is sloppy :P
09:35 AM on 04/10/2011
Like it or not, the Lancet, the AMA, the American Academy of Pediatrics and the American Nurses Association should be listened to. And, if you are interested in changes that might affect you and your family, you should read Epstein's recently published Changing Planet, Changing Health.

Epstein provides a lot of factual information which illustrates changes which are occurring in many different parts of our planet. You do not have to believe his information. You should at least understand why many health professionals are concerned, to make the best health decisions for you and you family.

And, it really doesn't matter what you think since Health Insurers are setting their costs on the information in this book.

Again, I don't care what you believe or don't believe. Just don't be ignorant.
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moAb
"when bad men combine, the good must associate”
05:20 PM on 04/17/2011
Add to your list the US military high command. They have been concerned about global warming/climate change for quite some time.
10:35 AM on 04/09/2011
"World turns out to be an aesthetic effect based on a kind of blurriness and aesthetic distance. This blurriness derives from an entity’s ignorance concerning objects. Only in ignorance can objects act like blank screens for the projection of meaning. “Red sky at night, shepherd’s delight” is a charming old saw that evokes days when shepherds lived in worlds, worlds bounded by horizons on which things occurred such as red sunsets. The sun goes down, the sun comes up—of course now we know it doesn’t, so Galileo and Copernicus tore big holes in that particular notion of world. Likewise, as soon as humans know about climate, weather becomes a flimsy, superficial appearance that is a mere local representation of some much larger phenomenon that is strictly invisible. You can’t see or smell climate. Given our brains’ processing power, we can’t even really think about it all that concretely."

http://worldpicturejournal.com/WP_5/Morton.html
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11:07 PM on 04/08/2011
The marker for junk science about health and climate change is the meme about malaria spreading out of the tropics due to global warming. That claim is absolute nonsense. Anyone making such claims is ignorant of the science.

Malaria is not restricted to low altitudes and the tropics. Malaria is a disease that can exist whereever there are mosquitos, including, historically, Washington DC, England and Siberia, for example.

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200506/ldselect/ldeconaf/12/12we21.htm

http://petesplace-peter.blogspot.com/2007/10/35-mistakes-continued-to-conclusion.html
11:08 AM on 04/09/2011
Excellent and often-made (and often ignored) point. Thanks for bringing it into the discussion. In truth, if we really cared about the problems of the developing world, whether in the warm tropics or in the not-so-warm 'rest of the world', we would be doing all that we can to make energy affordable, accessible, dependable, safe and free from ideological and political non-sense. Building a bridge to the future by promoting the next generation of nuclear technologies (and thus avoiding the real, but no-where near disasterous problems exemplified by the Fukushima Plant's catastrophe) until such time as fusion or some other as yet un-exploited form of energy such as space based solar or matter/anti-matter conversion becomes a reality. Cheers
luminavi
Love kicking over anthills on both left and right.
02:24 PM on 04/10/2011
Yep, well said yourself. The hysteria needs to be dialed DOWN.

AGW advocacy needs to be decoupled from continued efforts to promote clean, renewable sustainable energy initiatives and policies, clean air, nature conservation, wild animal rescues, etc. It has politicized and polarized the entire environmental and conservation movement, and reduced it into an ideological manifesto.

Maybe I'm getting too old. But I remember when environmentalism and conservation were advocated, simply because they made sense, without having to resort to fear-mongering and climate hysteria.
luminavi
Love kicking over anthills on both left and right.
02:04 PM on 04/10/2011
Yeah but it sounds so GOOD tho, doesn't it? And it appears to be 'logical,' don't you think? The world was so PERFECT before, and we humans have totally RUINED it.

EVERYTHING, even malaria, can now be attributed to anthropogenic global warming. All that excess CO2 has helped give rise to a mutant form of mosquito, one that can travel far and light, with an attitude and a chip on its shoulder, out to kill all humans, because it, too, believes global warming ought to be 'stopped.' LOL.
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cbk780
My personal blog: AgileCriticalThinking.com
07:28 PM on 04/08/2011
Fortunately, we now know from the Republicans that climate change is just a hoax. Stay calm, there is nothing to worry about.

Much like evolution, we now understand it is one of the fabricated, political ideas that scientists create so they can get lots of funding from the government.and take money from your pocket.

Fortunately we have many corporations who are working with the Republicans to clarify the issues and make sure everyone understands them as they should be understood.

Once the Right gets control of both houses of Congress, they will be able to deal effectively with the issue. Here is the program I suggest:

- make sure you silence these nutty professors who are perpetrating the hoax. While you are at it, let's get rid of tenure so that they become easier to fire. That will shut them up.

- make sure the EPA cannot do anything about regulating carbon dioxide emissions. Hey, it's only air anyway.

- drill baby drill

Charlie
11:39 AM on 04/09/2011
making a quick buck is far more important than survival!
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Jim Milks
Ecologist
10:49 PM on 04/09/2011
F&F.