The Military Vote: Why the Numbers Don't Tell the Whole Story

The Military Times has released a new poll saying that the troops are overwhelmingly backing John McCain. But a few weeks ago, the Center for Responsive Politics released data saying that McCain got fewer military donations than the other presidential candidates, Senator Barack Obama and Representative Ron Paul.

So who are military folks supporting? Hard to tell. What do these stories tell us about the military vote this year? Frankly, not much.

The Military Times poll is a voluntary poll, not a scientific one. That means they didn't take a random sample. Random sampling may sound like wonk-speak, but it's absolutely crucial if you want your poll to be representative of a larger group. Using nonrandom samples is like offering free ham sandwiches at a PETA convention -- your results aren't going to be typical.

Military Times explains this in their methodology:

"The voluntary nature of the survey could affect the results -- if supporters of one candidate are more prone to express their opinions, for example. The dependence on e-mail could also affect the results, because e-mail users may have different characteristics than the military population as a whole.

Characteristics of Military Times readers may also affect the results. The group surveyed is significantly older than the military as a whole, and the survey group contains a higher percentage of officers than is present in the military.

Conversely, junior enlisted troops, women and racial and ethnic minorities made up a smaller share of the sample than of the military at large. While it is difficult to predict how those factors affect the results, those groups are generally regarded as more supportive of Democratic candidates."

The upshot is, the poll doesn't represent the military as a whole. It skews towards retirees and undercounts minorities -- meaning the title "Military Times Poll: Troops backing McCain" should instead read "Troops and retirees who answered our email back McCain." Same goes for the Obama donation story; military people who donate to campaigns are not necessarily representative of the larger military community. How are they different? We don't know -- and that's the point. If you don't take a random sample, your stats don't mean anything about the group you polled.

The real reason this gets my goat is that both of these stories are going to be used to imply that one party or the other has a lock on the military vote. But 1.7 million people have served in Iraq and Afghanistan -- and they are a group as diverse as America. This year, they are a political jump ball.

Bottom line: Neither party owns the military vote. And any elected official can look forward to seeing veterans groups holding their feet to the fire, like we did this week with IAVA Action's 2008 Congressional Report Card. We'll be making sure that when it comes to real support for our troops -- like looking after the wounded and making sure vets can afford to go to college -- the actions of politicians in office match their rhetoric on the stump.

Follow Paul Rieckhoff on Twitter: www.twitter.com/PaulRieckhoff

Comments

[gmtia]

This is a must read.
http://www.snopes.com/politics/obama/afghanistan.asp

[gmtia]

Mr Rieckhoff I've read IAVA for some time. When ever I know you'll be on a news show I watch. I honor all our service people. You've accomplished so much for our vets and present military people home and abroad. Keep up the great work.

[WilliamL]

There seems to be a lack of understanding regarding the ability of active duty military to participate in partisan politics-it is against regulations. It is not as if one would drive through military housing and see political yards signs as is open support for parties or candidates.

The last thing this country needs is a politicized military. A tough pill to swallow for some but keeping the military as a whole out of civilian politics is fundamental to insuring the Democratic apparatus of this Republic. Above all, many civilians need to recognize that it is the decisions of civilian leadership which ultimately sends troop to war.

BOTH parties AND some civilians are guilty of exploiting the military for political gain every two/four years. BOTH parties need to exercise respect and decency towards military members, families, and dependents. SOME “liberals” and “progressives” need to recognize their condescending and arrogant attitudes towards the military are the reason many have turned their backs upon the D. party in the past.

Thousands upon thousands dead and maimed over the past seven years and now both parties biggest interest at the moment are who the military is going to vote for? This is simply insulting to military families considering they have suffered incredibly, the most due the miss-calculations and mistakes of current and previous civilian administrations as well as civilians who voted for this administration twice. Yesterday, I said good bye to my BROTHER waiting for his flight back to Iraq.

[army193]

Question is simple to me...Who was right about deploying troops to Iraq?

[dogbert321]

I'm a Vietnam era veteran and I don't support McCain or his scary running mate palin.

[gabbinjane]

Having a husband in the military, I always wonder why it is that Democrats are the most eager to suppress the military vote??

[CitizenoftheRepublic]

I appreciate your husband and your families sacrifice for the country, but you are a liar. I as a Democrat want your husband home with his family and community... he is a hero! Show your patriotism by being honest and factual in your statements.

[Momatad]

I find it hard to swallow that the Democrats suppress the vote. I am the spouse and mother of Navy Vets. My son was in the Navy during the 2004 election and I had an absentee ballot sent to him. He didn't return it. I asked why and was informed that their 'commander' over his unit had instigated that the ballots had to be 'reviewed' before being sent back to make sure they voted the 'right' way. He told me he would rather not have voted than check it off for Bush and company. Illegal, hell yeah, but does it happen? I believe him when he tells me that the 'CO' told him that he could never prove it and he was delivering his ship for the'Commander in Cheif'.....So, in my experience, any manipulation of the military vote in this instance was by the GOP. He's out now, thank God, and I surely don't want to see McSame/Painful in office as I want this over before my now 16 is subject to a draft that would have to be reinstated in order to keep manning this 'war' that McSame says will take 100 years if necessary.

[Vajara]

Thanks Paul for keeping these figures in balance with reality. My brother and I are both vets and we don't think that the R's or McCain are up to the job of providing safety and security for our country and the world. In fact, they are frightening the country in time of economic crisis rather than designing a way out of this mess that has been primarily created by them. They are selfish and greedy "Bas....s"--mean spirited and will do anything and everything to create an atomosphere of hate and lies.

I hope that those who voted for the Bushites will hang their heads and apologize to our American people for causing these great problems around the world. Come on, no more wars! No one wins and we won't be able to improve our society until we stop the war machine that the R's are so good at.

[HereticalPolemicisit]

For those who are seeking self-promotion in rank and connections, post military; and those who have use and need of the hazardous duty pay, John McCain the Same is their boy.

If you're subject to the REAL hazardous duty, as your job, business, and family back home is going down the tubes, then Obama is the choice.

The Volunteer Military is NO MORE than an aggregate of economic patriots-those willing to risk themselves for country for income.

[CitizenoftheRepublic]

Hoo rah!

[lynjs]

The article and the posts have enlightened me. I think it can be said across the board in areas of public service that no one owns a particular public service group's vote.

[u2cancounterpoint]

I remember. Out in the middle of nowhere with only an M-16 between me and my own end wondering why. We should consider carefully leaving our people in harms way and not use them as political pawns to satisfy a few egos back home. I agree there is no "party" in a war zone. It is the mission that matters and the mission should be honest and straight forward, if it isn't the mission breaks down along with moral. We take our lead from the people back home, from our people and our government. When our government is not honest and straight forward the army loses it strength and direction. Our guns turn to destruction, our aim is not good and our cynicism grows.

[jimmzwrld]

Ive seen this progression of Republicains claiming they own the military, from the mid-eighties when I served in the Army until now. I have always found this offensive, but today it has grown into a sore I no longer can ignore. THE FACT IS THE REPUBLICANS HAVE A BAD TRACT RECORD ON HOW THEY TREAT VETS. Serving the country has nothing to do with political idealolgy and shouldnt.

[egal]

Your conclusion is false, although admittedly, the numbers you cite don't tell the whole story.

The GOP used to own the military vote. Then Bush thoroughly betrayed and abused the military, Veterans, and their families.

McCain voted AGAINST what would help soldiers, their families, Veterans, and military/VA hospitals and funding over 80% of the time, supporting a war the military had said all along was pointless and self-destructive but refusing to give soldiers and Veterans basic needs and benefits.

And while this was going on, Obama continued his well-reasoned, informed opposition to an illegal war countraindicated by the intelligence available at the time Congress permitted it. Yet he SUPPORTED the soldiers and Veterans over 80% of the time, lobbying for their benefit and striving to encourage a resect for and service to those who served even while he lambasted a foolish war.

Obama read the Intelligence that demanded opoostion to the war. He read it BEFORE the decision on giving the president unConstitutionally broad power, and he listened to the Intelligence and the soldiers and stood up against the war militarily, nationally, economically, and for citizens and particularly soldiers utterly calamitous.

In return, the vast majority of younger Active Duty soldiers and Veterans give Obama full and proud support, the majority of soldiers and officers in any forces intend to vote for Obama, and many Veterans will as well. Obama has the military's vote because he is the only one who has our back.

[beanchihuahua]

I'm a 12 year navy vet and my husband is going to Iraq in less than two weeks and neither of us are voting for McCain.

[zeboshoes]

Check out the new "Military Wives for Obama" video by Blue Star Families for Obama (http://www.bsf4o.com)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vwk4LL5-Mpo

I couldn't be prouder of these women.

As a military wife of 19 years, I believe this administration has ABUSED our military and its families. Our troops go wherever, whenever, and give up their choices when they join. It is our sacred duty, as a democracy, to be responsible about where we send them and why--and to take care of them when they are hurt.

This administration has used our military without regard and give only lip service. We must exercise our power to elect leaders who will respect the sacrifices that these warriors and their families make daily. It is for this reason that I am supporting the Obama/Biden ticket. McCain (and indeed Republicans) can no longer count on the military vote.

[glitz]

From the wife of a retired "lifer" with a family of soldiers back to WWII, I am proud of you!

[CitizenoftheRepublic]

Politicians may leave you when the wind blows the wrong direction, but remember "we the people" never will! Fight on for us where we need you and we will fight on here where you need us!

[NicoloM]

Paul-- let me get this straight, the same military whose retired generals pushed propaganda as "analysts" might not be accurately reflecting the opinions of all service members? Wow. What will they think of next, propaganda in Iraq?
Keep up the good work or they might get away with it.