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Paul Tullis

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What Obama Forgot About Change In Washington

Posted: 08/02/11 03:08 PM ET

So after all that, what did we get, really?

  • $91 billion a year in promised cuts for 10 years. That's about 6% of last year's federal budget, and it is subject to approval by future Congresses. This is evocative of what happened in 1981, when Reagan's director of OMB, David Stockman, recommended a package of tax cuts, which Congress approved, with the assumption that corresponding spending cuts would come later to pay for the reduction in revenue. (Interesting how this shows that not even Reagan believed what is now an article of faith among Republicans -- the idea that tax cuts pay for themselves by increasing job growth.) Well -- big surprise -- nobody in Congress wanted to actually make the cuts, and the deficit and debt exploded.
  • $21 billion in cuts in 2012, when most economists agree that what we need is more than 10 times that amount in spending to stave off back-to-back recessions. (Here is some high-school economics that the Tea Party is either too stupid to understand or too full of crap to admit is true: Spending by the government in times of economic stagnation creates jobs, which results in greater tax payments to the government, and creates demand, which drives two-thirds of the economic activity.)
  • Another bipartisan committee to find another 1.2T-1.5T in savings. This is the 18th such committee, though supposedly this time it's different because its recommendations will be subject to a single yea or nay vote with no amendments or delays.

This is what amounts to a victory for Democrats these days: The committee is allowed to consider raising revenue.

Here are a few of the ideas for raising revenue that died along the way of Pres. Obama's and the Democrats' capitulation on the debt deal:

  • eliminating tax breaks for corporate jets.
  • eliminating subsidies for oil companies, three of which are among the four largest companies in the world.
  • changing the tax code so that hedge fund managers, some of whom make billions a year in income, pay a higher percentage of their income than dishwashers do.
  • changing the tax code so that corporations like GE actually pay their taxes.

These all died at the hands of Republicans. And we're supposed to believe they care about average Americans?

Here's one idea that was never considered:

  • taxing the bonuses of executives at companies that received taxpayer bailout money at 95%.

Republicans, of course, are completely disingenuous in their opposition to taxes, because a great deal of the federal budget is comprised of payments to states. When the federal budget is cut, state budgets must therefore be cut.

What will states do to avoid running a deficit, which they are prohibited from doing by law? I don't know, but what they've done in the past is raise sales taxes.

These of course fall disproportionately on the poor.

That aside, the GOP showed again -- as they have in the past with abortion, gay marriage, and a host of other issues -- that they're willing to risk everything to get what they want.

They lost the presidency in '92 because GHW Bush was believed to be insufficiently anti-choice.

There's never been a national GOP candidate since with even a shadow of a pro-choice record lingering behind.

This time they raised the stakes for their signature issue, taxes, on which they know that if they were to cave once -- like the NRA with gun control -- it would open the door to more of the same.

The prospect of default presented an opportunity to reduce the size of government by reducing spending.

Which is fine with Republicans because it doesn't affect their backers and they're not really interested in governing, only in winning so they can reduce the size of government.

The problem with that logic is that much spending is actually designed to save money, or to compensate for things that economists call "inelastic" in the market. (An example of that is endangered species, because once there are no more grey wolves or blue whales you can't go out and buy a new one for any amount of money. Another is health care, because unlike your car, which you can drive around with a dent in the fender, when you break your arm you can't wait till you have more money to get it fixed.)

In the debate last December about Planned Parenthood, it was largely forgotten that most of its budget goes to birth control for women who can't afford it, which prevents the birth of poor children -- who cost the government a lot more money than the price of some rubbers.

Or take the FAA; Republicans cut $16 million from its budget, but that action has caused the FAA to be unable to collect $25 million in airline fees per day.

So as a result of this cost-cutting measure we're losing ten times as much money as we're saving.

The list goes on ad on; clean air rules prevent asthma in children, which the government spends millions each year to treat.

So this anti-tax fervor doesn't even do what it's supposed to do, number one, and number two, it fails a very basic test of conservatism, which is to save money.

The hue and cry from Republicans over spending, meanwhile, is bullshit -- there's really no other word for it.

As I-forget-who said first, Republicans only care about the debt or deficit when there's a Democrat to beat over the head with it. They spent $1.5 trillion on wars (one against the wrong guy), another $1.8 trillion on tax cuts for their political supporters (who didn't need it), and $180 billion on the biggest unfunded entitlement in history (the Medicare drug program).

So they're willing to spend when it suits them. GW Bush even passed a $168 billion stimulus. (Don't be fooled by the fact that it came mostly in the form of tax cuts; they were of the form that economists call tax expenditures, because they amount to the same thing.)

At the moment, though, it suits Republicans to portray Pres. Obama as a "tax-and-spend Democrat" and keep the economy in the toilet by preventing additional (and necessary) stimulus, so they can regain the presidency in 2012.

So here's where the headline comes in:

This battle over the debt deal was not a matter of who believes in Keynes.

It was a matter of Republicans caring more about power than about governing, and Democrats being unable to wrest that power from Republicans so that they can govern.

The reason Democrats lost (and their constituents will suffer) is the problem with the entire Obama presidency:

He forgot that the corollary to "Change comes to Washington" is that all the people who brought change to Washington -- Lincoln, FDR, MLK, whoever -- were willing to do what the Republicans just did: risk everything (and in some cases lay down their lives) for what they care about.

What's pathetic is not that Pres. Obama did what he said he would do, and lost.

He didn't even try.

He's the most forceful American orator in two generations, who's proven capable of killing a wedge issue and shifting the terms of the debate just by standing behind a podium and opening his mouth.

But his version of getting people behind him on the debt deal was a couple of press conferences -- where by definition you don't control the agenda -- and a primetime speech from the Oval Office, which was immediately overshadowed by its response.

Compare this to what GW Bush did during 2002-2003 in the buildup to Iraq:

He wanted to go to war, and he did whatever he had to to get people behind him.

He went around the country at beautifully stage-managed appearances.

He got the whole cabinet behind him, with Tom Ridge changing the threat level every 15 minutes.

Ashcroft entrapping people to gin up phony terrorists he could parade before the press.

Signature phrases like "the smoking gun could be a mushroom cloud" repeated ad nauseum.

A speech or two before a joint session of Congress.

Unlike Bush with WMD, Pres. Obama didn't even have to lie about the debt.

He just needed to explain some high-school level economics. (Remember Perot with those ridiculous anti-Nafta charts on Larry King we all made fun of? Well who now doesn't remember the phrase "giant sucking sound"?)

Why didn't Pres. Obama go on a national tour, months in advance of the default deadline, and set the terms of the debate the way he was able to set the terms of the campaign?

Not the same crap at a solar panel factory -- "Bush eff'd everything up; it would have been worse if not for me; green energy blah blah blah" -- which the press has seen 1000x before and basically stopped covering, but some new backdrops:

A defense contractor making Hummer armor we'd no longer be able to pay for.

The trailers at Nellis AFB where they control the drones over Afghanistan. No more hunting terrorists?

East Hampton, NY, standing in front of some 20,000-square-foot summer house belonging to a Wall St. banker who's building an addition with his bonus.

A senior center in Delray, FL, the next day, with some old lady in a wheelchair and tubes up her nose, the implication being: You want to cut her health care because you won't raise taxes on yesterday's guy?

Bush trotted out Condi, Rummy, Dick... Where was Pres. Obama's Labor Secretary, HUD secretary, HHS secretary?

By the way, who is Pres. Obama's Labor Secretary, the HUD Secretary, HHS Secretary?

Here's NY Times's Nate Silver:

32-to-28, members of the Tea Party Caucus voted for the bill, despite earlier claims -- which now look like a bluff -- that they wouldn't vote to raise the debt ceiling under any circumstances.

These results seem to suggest that Mr. Obama could have shifted the deal tangibly toward the left and still gotten a bill through without too much of a problem. For instance, even if all members of the Tea Party Caucus had voted against the bill, it would still have passed 237-to-193, and that's with 95 Democrats voting against it.

Specifically, it seems likely that Mr. Obama could have gotten an extension of the payroll tax cut included in the bill, or unemployment benefits, either of which would have had a stimulative effect.


Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

 

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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Morgan378
03:07 PM on 08/10/2011
The Republicans gutted the Stimulus and then with their cohorts in the oil and coal industry gutted alternative energy investment to where several companies - 3 Chinese and 1 German - decided to abandon plans after seeing Obama's proposal after Congress got hold of it. It's true. They thought Congress would gladly support half the cost of training and technical schools classes to train Americans in putting together solar panels and engineering turbines and were even "sourcing" American materials in the areas they thought of building in. When they saw the changes made by republicans - they backed out. The disincentives marked by oil, natural gas and coal lobbies made investing in the US too costly. So they went to Brazil, China and a plant is planned in Germany. Yes, the blame can be lain at the feet of the Republicans and now their Tea Bagger friends but - WHERE were Obama and the Democrats?! WHY didn't they throw down their own gaunlet and prepare for battle when so many direct and indirect jobs could've been created?! Tax revenues!? The houses in China are built with solar panels as standard. Not here in America. Those firms willing to invest here didn't even have to "ramp up" to make it in China - there was a "ready market" there. WHAT are the Republicans trying to do? RUIN US?! For God's sake! Take some jobs - ANY jobs!
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The Lone Stranger
Yes, I am a lousy typist. OK!
02:18 PM on 08/03/2011
You seem to assume that Obam understood something that he forgot.

I think he never got it in the first place.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
BRAINS4USA
Vote. Just do it. Always.
12:11 AM on 08/04/2011
Another nonsense post - whats wrong? Are your TP buddies bored with you too?
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
equilange
you tell me
01:28 PM on 08/03/2011
I think this misses the point. The big picture for the TPGOP is not merely to starve the government of tax revenue, it is to starve government in every possible way, then to decry the futility of government, and hand over control of just about everything to the corporate/private sector, and basically eliminate government (or relegate it to something of a symbolic entity which connects us to a quaint, brief history of our American past, much like the British monarchy serves as a living connection with history).

The intent is to destroy the institution of government itself, at EVERY level, by the way.
12:29 PM on 08/03/2011
John Maynard Keynes argument for goverment spending to stimulate the economy make sense then and now, however, with a global economy the spending have to be targeted. (1) If the stimulus is tax cut and it goes to consume goods manufactured aborad which creates a trade deficit then there is no positive effect. (2) Shovel ready today is different from shovel ready 40 years ago. In the past "shovel ready" means exactly that; thousand of workers on a construction project with shovel working, however, today it's two earth moving equipment lifting materials made in China or some other place.

We need to refocus and stop looking to the past for answers; it's a guide but not the model.
10:46 AM on 08/03/2011
I guess you don't need to be factual when writting in the Huffington Post - GHW Bush lost the '92 election because of his position on abortion? I guess the economy and Ross Perot's garnering almost 19% of the vote had nothing to do with it?
How is it different when the states have to raise the sales tax (your method) due to lower Federal Revenue affects the poor but increasing taxes on corporations doesn't have the same effect? When taxes go up for a company do they respond by doing nothing? Not likely - we all pay more or companies stop hiring or eventually go out of business - 9.2% Unemplyment anyone??
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Paul Tullis
journalist for NYT, Businessweek et al
10:55 AM on 08/23/2011
I guess you don't need to read carefully when reading the Huffington Post, or understand the topic you're reading about.
Perot, exit polls showed, drew equally from Clinton and Bush. It's widely understood that a major factor in GHWB's loss was that Christian conservatives didn't turn out to support him because he wasn't enough of a social conservative; only another 2% for Bush would have won the election for him, the economy notwithstanding.
I didn't say raising sales taxes was a good solution; I said it was the states' solution to an impossible situation Republican Congress puts them in. Comparing it to higher corporate taxes (which is not what I recommend in the post, if you would read it carefully) is therefore a false comparison.
Affixing the 9.2% unemployment rate to high corporate taxes is sheer folly, sorry.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
farleft1917
Nothing is new but only forgotten.
08:09 AM on 08/03/2011
O did not want to fight. When he retires from a second term, you will be amazed how rich he and his family will become. This guy suckered everyone but the Oligarchs who are still backing him.

O does not like the Middle Class and will never fight for them.
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09:01 AM on 08/03/2011
I have never believed Pres. Obama is motivated by money. When he got out of college he could have written his own ticket. The first Black to be Editor of the Harvard Law Review, he was young, charismatic, intelligent etc. If he wanted to make millions he could have done it then. He went into Community Service.

I believed then as I do now he really wanted to do some good for this country. He just, even though he is from Chicago, is not a street fighter and honestly in these times that is what you have to be to get anything done. I am sure you will scream and yell back at me but that is what I truly believe.
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
equilange
you tell me
02:06 PM on 08/03/2011
I think that is a good assessment.
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The Lone Stranger
Yes, I am a lousy typist. OK!
02:21 PM on 08/03/2011
get real Obama never had an interest in doing good for this ountry. hemerely recognized that this what people were clamouring for and then shaped his campaign to ride that all the way to the whitehouse.

Once he got elected he abandoned his mandate and abandoned the very goals he said he would pursue.
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Paul Tullis
journalist for NYT, Businessweek et al
10:56 AM on 08/23/2011
Obama is already rich, thanks to his books, and if he was interested in money he could have taken a job at any corporate law firm in the country when he left law school but he didn't.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Carl Caroli
I just don't understand people
07:33 AM on 08/03/2011
"What's pathetic is not that Pres. Obama did what he said he would do, and lost. He didn't even try."

Exactly right.
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elbzee
Fear is the mind-killer
07:46 AM on 08/03/2011
and sadly so.
*sigh*
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Mistinguette Grandison
No. Corporations are NOT people
07:19 AM on 08/03/2011
To his credit, doing more press conferences was a big step for him. He doesn't do enough, but the deal he and the Republican's made was so serious that it will cause some problems.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
carl cid inting
There are no tyrants where there are no slaves
06:08 AM on 08/03/2011
Obama is all bark. No bite. How can he ever bring about change?
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
DJleary
04:23 AM on 08/03/2011
Obama never was about CHANGE. It's evident by the fact that he has surrounded himself from day one with every old school wall St hack with a pulse. It's that simple. The guy is shamelessly full of it.

The Democrats stand for nothing and the Change Candidate turned out to be a schill.

Tea baggers don't trust government and for that I agree with them. They will take this declining nation down to were it's going anyway. At least they are up front about it.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Rendy Bee Mulyono
Someone with constant stream of
03:11 AM on 08/03/2011
One thing Obama n the media should know and remember: Tea Baggers only think for themselves. Not for their neighbor, their God, and definitely NOT for America. They are NOT patriots, and their "wants" benefits no one but themselves. They are zealots of their own convictions and should be completely ignored. If TP wants something, the correct solution is to do the exact opposite.
01:46 AM on 08/03/2011
He didn't forget. It was ALL lies to liberals and freeloaders just to get elected.
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artleads
Let's have a national retreat.
01:42 AM on 08/03/2011
Catchy way to write. I like it. If the TP-ites are just concerned with power, they fool quite a few of us. Innocent me tends to believe they are not quite that devious, but who knows? You're right. They were willing to risk it all. Absolutely essential for a leader to do! While restructuring our safety net (focusing on its mission rather than the "letter of the law" ) we have to come to terms with a radically changed economic order for the future--one that requires a "downsized" but better American Dream. The TP, while wanting to destroy the safety net, at least is getting us to the point where we have to start looking at this new downsized but fair and livable future.
11:49 PM on 08/02/2011
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"eliminating tax breaks for corporate jets"

Why is this even mentioned? With the annual deficit well over $1.5 trillion, the "corporate jets" break would return $0.003 trillion.
12:43 AM on 08/03/2011
It's a start.....to cutting corporate welfare, etc.

You take a step, two steps.....ten steps......a hundred steps........and sooner or later, you just might get where you want to go.

We need spending cuts AND revenue increases.....AND some @#$% competent politicians running things, NOT these power mad, incompetent fools.
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snowballinhell
Humans have a 100% chance of extinction
05:09 AM on 08/03/2011
Beggars can't be choosers. And we're desperate. Anything helps.
11:43 PM on 08/02/2011
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"Spending by the government in times of economic stagnation creates jobs, which results in greater tax payments to the government, and creates demand, which drives two-thirds of the economic activity"

most of the spending went toward keeping government workers employed at the expense of the private sector unemployment exploding.

spending also created temporary jobs which came to an end and put the employed back on unemployment.
itolduso
lateral thinker
01:06 PM on 08/03/2011
"most of the spending went toward keeping government workers employed at the expense of the private sector unemployme­nt exploding."-notwaff *********** How does increasing the numbers of school teachers, policemen, fireman, and courthouse clerks lead to "private sector unemployment exploding"?!