2011: Warmest "La Nina" Year on Record Globally

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced that 2011 to date has been the warmest on record for a year when a La Niña has occurred.

A La Niña is cooling of sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. La Niña is a naturally occurring large-scale weather phenomenon that affects global climate patterns and tends to have an overall cooling effect on global temperatures. One of the strongest La Niña events in the past 60 years occurred from last winter and into spring.

According to the WMO release: "Strong La Niña years are typically 0.10 to 0.15°C cooler than the years preceding and following them. 2011's global temperatures followed this pattern, being lower than those of 2010, but were still considerably warmer than the most recent moderate to strong La Niña years, 2008 (+0.36°C), 2000 (+0.27°C), and 1989 (+0.12°C)."

Initial data indicates that 2011 (through October) has been +0.41°C higher than the long-term (1961-1990) average. This is the 10th warmest since records have been kept (since 1850), and 13 of the warmest years have occurred since 1997.

(2010 La Nina) The WMO report notes that the extent of Arctic sea ice was the second lowest on record, and the volume of sea ice was at its lowest. It should be noted that such ice records, measured by satellites, only date back to 1979.

Global weather extremes for 2011 included extreme drought followed by flooding in east Africa, the deadliest flash flooding in Brazil, and a year of extremes in the United States. The United States weather established a record for the number of billion-dollar-plus weather disasters, with 14 to date.

The La Niña, combined with another weather phenomenon, the North Atlantic Oscillation, resulted in bouts of extreme cold in the U.S. last winter, and there are signs that very cold air will move southward into the U.S. during the next couple of weeks.

 

 

 

Comments

[chendri887]

01:42 AM on 12/22/2011

Things are so clearly out of whack in southern California right now. The dryness and coldness and Santa Ana winds long after they are supposed to be here. La Nina, if it is even that, has been here strongly 3 of the last 5 years. Before that, in my 44 year life, I don't even remember this pattern being mentioned. In the literature, it was said to alternate with El Nino (the wet pattern) in 15 or 20 year periods, so little as to be not noticeable. Is it the new normal? Does anyone care? I've seen funnel clouds forming in southern California during the winter over the past few years. That has never happened before. It regularly freezes, goes into the 30s, when for one hundred years the average winter low around here was the high 50s, or low 60s. No one on the local news even mentions it. Nothing. 50 mile per hour winds coming from the east for two weeks out of the month. No problem. It's the new normal. All plants die of frost in our "mild" southern California winters. No problem. It's the new normal. Ten inches of rain falls in one day; then no rain falls for the rest of the winter. No problem. It's the new normal. Yeah.

[Publicola]

01:52 PM on 12/02/2011

National Academy of Sciences, 2010:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

There is a strong, credible body of evidence, based on multiple lines of research, documenting that climate is changing and that these changes are in large part caused by human activities. While much remains to be learned, the core phenomenon, scientific questions, and hypotheses have been examined thoroughly and have stood firm in the face of serious scientific debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations...

Some scientific conclusions or theories have been so thoroughly examined and tested, and supported by so many independent observations and results, that their likelihood of subsequently being found to be wrong is vanishingly small. Such conclusions and theories are then regarded as settled facts. This is the case for the conclusions that the Earth system is warming and that much of this warming is very likely due to human activities.

http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12782 

[Bullitt08]

09:42 AM on 12/02/2011

"The WMO report notes that the extent of Arctic sea ice was the second lowest on record, and the volume of sea ice was at its lowest. It should be noted that such ice records, measured by satellites, only date back to 1979. "

The second sentence says it all. Not enough data to drawn any conclusions.

[chrisd3]

10:47 AM on 12/02/2011

By the time there is "enough data" to satisy you "skeptics," which undoubtedly won't be until the water reaches the second floor of Morgan Stanley, it will be far, far too late to do anything.

And, by the way, this refers only to satellite records. These are not the only records we have.

[pakaal]

02:09 PM on 12/02/2011

Yeah, but the good news is they're doomed too!

If I can call that "good" news.

Which actually I don't.

[Publicola]

01:56 PM on 12/02/2011

"Not enough data to drawn any conclusions."

You mean, except that Arctic ice has been melting over the past 3 decades?

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.png
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/n_plot_hires.png

[pakaal]

02:07 PM on 12/02/2011

It's funny. Every time I click on one of these stories I always come across the same folks repeating the same points. Seems like there's always a new batch of denialists to set straight.

[MikeWebster]

10:41 PM on 12/01/2011

Well it all looks like the Earth is warming up dangerously due to AGW.

Lucky for us, we have the deniers to tell us it's just the same as it always was, the Arctic was never that big, and is actually expanding, sea levels aren't rising, it's actually cooling down, etc. ect.

[Ockham57]

12:28 AM on 12/02/2011

Well, no need for accuracy if you're a true believer. Skeptics do not claim the arctic was 'never that big'. They do question the predictions of an ice free arctic by .....(choose your moving goal posts date). In fact, the arctic 'death spiral' has taken a bit of a break for the last 5 years. Please explain why? Truth about sea levels, the trend of increase has remained relatively the same to slight decelerating during the last century and has decreased markedly(6mm) over the last two years. Please explain why no acceleration despite increasing CO2 concentrations? Skeptics telling us it is cooling? Nice distortion. Skeptics acknowledge that global mean temperature has not statistically increased for 15 years. Even your own AGW scientists, overcome with confirmation bias, are tripping over themselves to poop out papers explaining why. It must be sulfide aerosol emissions from China ... err no, maybe hidden heat accumulating in the deep oceans that hasn't revealed itself yet. I think you ought to study your oppositions position better ... or include links, unless of course, honesty was not your intention.

[chrisd3]

10:52 AM on 12/02/2011

I despair of you "skeptics" ever understanding that short-term trends don't mean anything.

And, by the way, this doesn't really look like "a bit of a break" to me:

http://bit.ly/rFhxGj

[Publicola]

02:12 PM on 12/02/2011

O57: "Please explain why no accelerati­on despite increasing CO2 concentrat­ions?"

The premise of your question is invalid.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2009JCLI2985.1
http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Publications/Journals/rahmstorf_vermeer_2011.pdf

Please explain why you science deniers have so much trouble your "facts" straight.

[Jeff styles]

11:19 AM on 12/02/2011

You're missing the point. The earth is NEVER the same as it was even the day before. Its always changing and always will. Are you DENYING the fact that the earth has been warming since the last ice age? If suddenly, the earth stops changing, then pull the alarm. Then I'll be worried.

[pakaal]

02:05 PM on 12/02/2011

The very same science that tells you about the history of the Earth's climate--those ever-changing temperatures you're talking about--is telling you humans are changing the world's climate right now.

So, yeah, sorry, you can't mention the Earth's climate history without de facto supporting the conclusions in the scientific community that AGW is happening.

[Publicola]

02:18 PM on 12/02/2011

JS: "The earth is NEVER the same as it was even the day before. Its always changing and always will."

Like, duh.

And your "point" is what exactly?

JS: "Are you DENYING that the earth has been warming since the last ice age?"

That is not a "fact", Jack - per the science you are wrong.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holocene_climatic_optimum

HTH.

[idontknowdoyou]

01:31 PM on 12/01/2011

I'm not saying global warming isn't real, but this positioning is ridiculous. By saying that a a cooler year is warmer than usual without mentioning that there was a peak last year is disingenuous.

[Publicola]

02:53 PM on 12/01/2011

Really.

How so?

[lbsaltzman]

11:40 PM on 12/01/2011

No it makes total sense. the lows brought on by La Nina are not as low implying that another forcing factor is at work - it is called global warming. We can expect that El Nino's may be warmer than average as well. The long term trend line is more and more heating up of the planet with more and more disastrous results.

[trumphent]

09:53 AM on 12/01/2011

That's interesting. Makes you wonder what will happen during the next relatively mild El Nino.

[MikeWebster]

10:41 PM on 12/01/2011

I don't know about you, but I'm not looking forward to it.