The Good News About $200 Oil...I Hope...

In 2004, I was teaching at a University in Connecticut. The subject was globalization. In that class, I predicted that based on the rapid development taking place in countries like China and India, we would see $100 oil within 5 years. (If only I'd put my money where my mouth was...but that's another story...)

Several weeks ago, prior to the oil industry experts announcing the same, I predicted we'd see $200 oil within the next 5 years. Maybe I'll be right. Maybe I'll be wrong. But if it comes to pass my hope is that with all the difficulty and disruption that will undoubtedly cause, it will also offer real opportunity for improved quality of life - and not just for the oil companies. I hope that $200 oil will finally make alternate work scenarios not only affordable but desirable for most employers. I hope that with the high cost of transportation and heating/cooling, etc., companies will finally see that technology is cheaper than office space. And that employees, freed from an often torturous daily commute, can be even more productive and engaged working remotely.

Because the truth is that while personal relationships and team work will always be important, we can all learn how to be more effective in managing these things, even when we are not in the same location every day. In fact, it will become just like it is right now for those of us who have international teams.

Throughout my career, I have had teams that I worked with every day or every week but only saw in person a couple times a year. It's not as easy, especially with junior folks you are trying to mentor or when you are first starting to work together, but it can be highly effective in many instances and indeed it can liberating for senior folks - allowing or forcing (depending on the person) the individual to make more of their own decisions and to be more accountable for the results.

As my husband will attest, I am not a big technology buff. But, even I LOVE the personal freedom and power that comes from the ability to do work whenever and wherever I please. Like right now, as I'm sitting at the Wilmette community center, waiting for my daughter to finish her first ballet class, and writing this blog.

So if $200 oil is inevitable, I say let's at least be sure we get some personal benefits along with the obvious difficulties.

By Perry Yeatman, SVP Corporate Affairs, Kraft Foods & co-author of the new award-winning book, Get Ahead by Going Abroad.

Comments

[seawolf77]

I think the Bejing Olympics and a Gulf hurricane will be the final nail in the coffin. The world must contract for the first time in my memory and it's not going to feel good. Sugar based ethanol and soybean based biodiesel are 2 stop gap measures that will see us thru. 4 day work weeks and virtual office for several employees a week are conservation measures which could help. This is what we need to be talking about, not finger pointing and raging against the machine.

[TheJibreelaMonsters]

so much for the trucking industry

[vipersdad]

You are right - THANK YOU for writing this
There are millions of people who cannot telecommute I know.... but:
There are millions of others who can.

And it's crazy to fill up our motorways and roads with cars just because there are those who cannot.

The technology exists to enable people to stay at home vs. driving to work and we are in a national crisis here. EVERY GALLON saved is worth it.

Employers have to start the shift to good old-fashioned "performance management" techniques vs. reliance on seeing "butts in seats" and thinking people are being productive.

I think it was at Boeing that they did a study once where the findings were very interesting - they found that if you were on another floor or another building or over 400 meters away from a co-worker, you might as well be in another state or country in terms of face-to-face interaction. Most interaction was over the phone, email or instant messaging. Might as well be at home.

[drkazmd65]

Ms. Yeatman,...

For those that work in a 'service' industry (if that is not really an oxymoron), where one physically doesn't have to be in the office to do most of one's job - the energy crisis may prove a boon as you describe.

But for those whose physical presence (manual laborers, the few 'factory' workers, food service workers, truckers,...) is required in an office - there is practically no way to spin the over-rapid rise in energy costs that doesn't hurt,.. and hurt a lot. These jobs will either disappear, or they will take even greater pay cuts.

In my case, as a laboratory scientist, I may be able to get away with cutting back on one - two commuting days / week. Perhaps by shifting to a 4 day x 10 hour workweek, maybe I can figure out a way to spend one day / week dealing with paperwork or in data analysis mode at home,...

But I can't shift to the full time remote working lifestyle - and I am one of the realtively flexible ones.

Glad it seems to be working out for you,... but it won't work out that way for most of 'us'.

[cylindar]

Yes, and I think the rise in prices are a good things for the reasons you mention and more.

[Halsey]

Kind of selfish..you HAVE a job that allows you to tele-commute...what about independent gardners? independent truckers? secretaries? janitors?... our country has failed them by not already having in place, good mass transit (outside NYC and San Francisco)...

Why is no one suggesting going to 55 MPH ..yes..as a Californian..I'd hate it..and should just drive that without it being legislated.but..I'm human..and if people are honking at me...racing past me on both sides of the freeway..gosh..I just HAVE to drive faster. Nixon actually had the knackers to lower the speed limit during the OPEC crisis of the mid-70's...think how much would be saved..and, we won't do it ourselves...so..much as I deplore regulation..it's time...what the heck...traffic fatalities would probably go down too!...

[Agent420]

Don't be silly.

[RobertArend]

So, for at least the next decade, we will be forced to be shut-ins because fuel for vehicles will be reserved, as with so much of everything else, for the very rich. We will travel no further than we can walk. How small our world will be, just as it was for most at the beginning of the human race and until just one hundred years ago.

For the next decade, we will turn our home thermostats lower and lower with every winter, going back to stacks of blankets in the dim light and all to one bed to share body heat, while the very rich luxurate in heated swimming pools.

For the next decade, we will learn to like eating the weeds in our backyards, fertilzer too expensive to provide a better garden; hunting meat prohibited under poaching laws to preserve all food as property of only those that can afford to own it.

Bless the cost of oil. Our lives will be so much simpler soon__and so much more desperate. Even the rich plantation owners of the old South fed their slaves so they could work. Cold and starving, I suppose we will be all too weak to work. Millions of us "excess eaters" will grant Kissinger his wish by dying. But, then, who will be left to feed the rich?

[realityczech4u]

Yes, and the scenarios you cite are largely the effects on the able-bodied.

The effect on the elderly will go way beyond extreme discomfort. When they make the eat/heat decision, forgoing heat in favor of nutrition will cause hypothermia and death for many.

Ditto death for many of the poor. Their passage to the great beyond is initiated by incineration rather than hypothermia when they take the foolish risk of using space heaters in a desperate attempt to keep from freezing.

But yes, overpriced fuel will be good 'discipline' for all wasteful humans (except the rich) in our quest to 'save' the planet..

There will be massive job losses as the economy contracts. One interesting possibility that I see is for every corporation to conduct an experiment.
See how many office drones they can slough off before a) they notice they're gone at all. and b) before it causes a decline in their net profits. My bet is that entire office 'campuses' could be emptied out. They could then be torn down and the land returned to the productive use of growing food for a hungry world and manufacturing goods for use here and export.

[mydogshakespeare]

"I rode a camel. My son drives a car. His son flies in jets. His son will ride a camel." Saudi Proverb

[fact finder]

Robert; As there are relatively few rich they will not need very many slaves to take care of them. Guess where the rest of us are doomed to do. Do the words freeze, starve, death by heat exhaustion or starvation sound familiar?

[therealredstateblues]

we may see a reneweed interest in rail transport in this country - the most fuel efficient and least environmentally impacting mode of transport

we may see "localization" as companies bring back jobs from overseas due to high transport costs

[RobtBrock]

Hey, this is hardly the place to be rational.

[mydogshakespeare]

Hey, if you want "rational", try RedState.Com. After dealing with those close-minded and thin-skinned back-patters, you will find the "normal world" suddenly appears MUCH more coherent.

[chjensen]

I agree that while there are some severe economic challenges to very high oil prices - there are some potential good outcomes as well.

As you pointed out companies will be forced to learn how to incorporate a virtual workforce and limit travel to trips that are absolutely necessary. Buildings will hopefully be built with low energy consumption in mind - both office buildings and private homes. The winner is all this will be the environment - unless we manage to find some other idiotic ways to ruin it.

Sure it will mean that you are going to see far less Urban Assault Vehicles (SUV's) on the street but I personally don't mind fewer Hummers on the road.

Having lived in Europe during the 70's and 80's with the energy crunch fueling innovation in energy conscious anything I am looking forward to seeing this happen here.

What we have to be cautious of though, is trying to avoid digging up old, very dirty energy forms like coal - that would make matters even worse. Looking at China today it is very apparent to anyone how badly one can treat the environment - walking the streets of Beijing is no treat. The upcoming Olympics will even further illustrate this - think about having to shut down most industry and a large part of transport just to be able to hold a sport event. Imagine what it is like to live there every day.