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Peter Daou

Peter Daou

Posted: August 22, 2007 03:44 PM

Hillary, Rove, and Electability -- the Real Numbers


NOTE: I'm the Clinton campaign's Internet Director

There's been lots of discussion in recent days about Hillary's poll numbers and I figured I'd share a batch of links that give perspective on where things stand:

http://www.galluppoll.com/content/?ci=28477 (Excerpt: "A review of Gallup poll data suggests that Hillary Clinton's current high unfavorable ratings are not unprecedented. Other candidates have had similarly high unfavorable ratings at various points in presidential election campaigns in previous years. Two of these candidates -- George W. Bush in 2004 and Bill Clinton in 1992 -- went on to win the election. Additionally, Rove's assumptions that Hillary Clinton's candidacy is "fatally flawed" run counter to the historical finding that candidates' images often change, sometimes dramatically, as the campaign progresses.")

http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/8/22/02050/6475 (Jonathan Singer discusses Markos's post about Hillary's strong showing in three red states. Excerpt: "Markos passes on some very interesting polling of registered voters in three Southern states -- one of which that hasn't voted Democratic since 1996, another that hasn't since 1976, and yet another that hasn't since 1964 -- that seriously calls into question the contention by some that Hillary Clinton is not electable in a general election.")

http://georgep.mydd.com/story/2007/8/22/12351/9500 (georgep at MyDD links to Gallup's latest national survey -- with video from Frank Newport analyzing the numbers)

And here's Hillary responding to Rove's attack:

Cross-posted here and here

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09:10 AM on 08/26/2007
Good post!

It's good to see the spin eviscerated in such a fact-based and rational way, for a change.
02:45 PM on 08/23/2007
They say Hillary's doing so well in the polls only because everyone knows who she is. Then they say she can't get elected because her negatives are too high. Wait a minute. She's got these really high negatives, is very well known, but is still leading by a large amount in the polls? Sounds like President Clinton to me.
09:28 AM on 08/23/2007
Hillary has been the most articulate, reasonable and skillful debater of the Dems- and I like MOST of the DEM candidates (would put them in a presidential cabinet or Supreme Court anyday before our present Repub clowns and crooks)! Fascinating to me that Hillary has won the hearts and VOTES of New Yorkers (if you can make it there....)consistently and defintively as SENATOR and folks still say she cannot win- ONLY THE FACTS DISPUTE REPUBLICAN RHETORIC AND RANT- and WE ALL KNOW THAT REPUBLICANS HAVE REAL PROBLEMS WITH FACTS- LIKE IRAQ, KATRINA, LEWIS LIBBY, THE DECIDER and PRIVATIZING SOCIAL SECURITY & SELLING OUR PORTS TO DUBAI, CHENEY AND WMD & IRAQIS @ WORLD TRADE TOWERS, GONZO AND HIS MEMORY OF THE FACTS....BROWNIE, and the list goes on.....
09:17 PM on 08/22/2007
I think, ultimately, Americans want to hear--and see--"YES", which is what the Dems are offering, and not "NO" which is what the Repugs are offering.
09:11 PM on 08/22/2007
You can't blame Hillary for running hard to become president. What successful female lawyer with such a good chance to be elected, wouldn't go for it?

But you can blame her for having such a bad image. She's been so long in the public eye that she could not possess high negatives without having earned them. If she were deserving of our high regard, she's had plenty of time in which to establish that, but she has failed to make the case, while her record argues otherwise. Folks don't irrationally detest someone they've been watching for 15 years, without a reason for doing so. With a newbie to the scene, you could say "First impressions can be deceiving," "Reserve judgment," etc. Not so with an oldie who has earned widespread contempt -- not as a human being, but as a politician.

All the more so when she daily gives us reasons to think like that. The latest - saying one day the surge is working, then the next day that military methods can't work? Please pass the airsickness bag. I'm sorry, but we're talking about people's lives. Such instances of her bobbing and weaving and vacillating, show that she is either stupid or practically devoid of principles and convictions, and few really think she's stupid.

She talks a good talk on some social issues, like education, medical care, etc. But how can there be any conviction there, when she's consistently supported the killing of tens of thousands of Iraqi kids, and wasting our US$$ to do it?
09:02 PM on 08/22/2007
I am not a big Hillary fan, not at all, but I believe she will win both the nomination and the presidency. Hillary Clinton is the most underestimated person in American Politics, her negatives will go down and her positives will go up. If she is paired with Obama I think she will win by a significant margain.
08:59 PM on 08/22/2007
It's obvious to me that Sen Clinton is the smartest most experienced most able of the entire pack. Plus she looks great. She is comfortable. Very confident-She is our best bet to break the slime cycle-also she is ready and able to take on the machine. Wow -some gal huh ? I think she will be elected . Don't let the politics junkies fool you. Hillary Clinton is the best representative of reason and sound governing. She made believers of them in New York. They love her. Yes she is a centrist. Which means she gets flak from both sides. Go Girl Go
08:45 PM on 08/22/2007
Maybe the pollsters know something I don't know, but I have a hard time understanding how Hillary is doing so well in the polls. I remain a socially liberal, fiscally conservative Democrat (pretty much middle of the Democratic range) who will never vote for Hillary because:

1. I do not trust her, and
2. I do not believe that she brings any substantial difference in policy from the current rascals.

I must honestly say that there are several of the current Republicans who I would vote for if they face Hillary in the general election in 2008. I cannot imagine I am the only Democrat who feels this way, and I am certain that nearly 100% of the Republicans will vote against Hillary. How is it possible that Hillary can get a majority of votes in 2008?
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08:40 PM on 08/22/2007
Too many GOP operatives want to see Hillary as the nominee for my comfort. Murdoch, Rove, etc all want to see the Democrats make the stupid move of nominating Hillary for '08.
08:38 PM on 08/22/2007
Rove apparently thinks Hillary is vulnerable because she doesn't have the enthusiastic support of the Democratic Party base. His focus on getting that support may have been a result of the 1968 election in which Hubert Humphrey lost to Richard Nixon not because Nixon was a popular figure or a great candidate, but because so many Democrats failed to work the phones, walk the precincts or even vote for Humphrey because they were unhappy with Humphrey's failure to criticize Johnson's position on Viet Nam until late in the campaign. Or, it may be based on the more recent example of Al Gore failing to get the enthusiastic support of the party's entire base, thus letting Bush get close enouth to steal the 2000 election.
Unfortunately, many of the comments above reflect that Hillary has the same problem Humphrey had -- a lack of enthusiastic support among a significant portion of the Democratic Party base. Unless she can figure out a way to overcome that, if she gets the party's nomination there is a very good chance that her fate will be the same as that suffered by Humphrey.
08:36 PM on 08/22/2007
Hillary fans, help me! I was excited about her until 1993. Come on, admit her health care commission was a fiasco. Secret meetings, complicated plans, compromises with corporate drug and insurance companies--a mess. And then she dropped the ball on health care completely.
As first lady of Arkansas she took on education as her issue and in 8 years the state went from 48th to 49th in the nation in education.
Regarding Iraq, does anyone really know where she stands? Look at her latest speech in front of the VFW. She's like a wind chime on the war, chiming strong or soft according to which way the wind blows.
So what am I missing? Where's the beef? Why should I vote for Hillary except as a last resort?
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08:35 PM on 08/22/2007
Poll numbers not withstanding, Hillary is divisive.

If she wins the nomination her very presence on the ticket will strengthen the GOP. This is the issue and nothing else.

If the GOP wins again (think Giuliani who is farther to the right than Bush)another 8 years could put us in a position from which we could not recover.

This is much more than the presidency, it's about the survival of our country in a form envisioned by the Founding Fathers.

Hillary can not be an effective president. The GOP will stonewall every thing she tries to do.
08:10 PM on 08/22/2007
I am always amazed at how many Democrats, liberals and progressives hate Hillary, or at least spend an inordinate amount of time bashing her. Honestly, it really is one thing to oppose someone's policies or plans, but this blanket rejection and obsession with her candidacy is bizarre. And no, I am not on her campaign staff. I haven't decided who I'm going to vote for in the primaries yet. It likely won't be Hillary, but for crying out loud, if you're opposed to the neocons, spend some time bashing them or at least offering constructive criticism to those trying to remove them from power. And please, don't jump to the "Hillary's just as bad as the neocons" crap. Really? So she's trying to tell you how to live your life, what you can and can't do in the privacy of your own home? She may have a lot of corporate ties, and she may well have compromised her loyalties to the point that she wouldn't be a huge change. But "just as bad?" Sorry, I don't buy it.
07:57 PM on 08/22/2007
Hilary's high negatives are entirely Bill Clinton's fault. As soon as Bill fell into the background, Hilary's numbers shot up. The media love the myth of a popular Bill Clinton. Bill Clinton got less than 50 per cent of the popular vote in both of his elections.

Watch what happens when Bill Clinton's book comes out in September. Hilary's numbers will begin to suffer.

Hilary is electable because the Republicans are trying exceedingly hard to lose. I have never seen Republicans trying harder to lose an election.
07:44 PM on 08/22/2007
I am very afraid of Hillary Clinton. In her speech to the VFW she says we need to prepare for the new war. Is she talking about a war with Iran?? We are at war in Iraq, and Afghanistan. Maybe she wants to be the war president like Bush, so she plans to go to war with Iran if she becomes president. There is no way I am going to vote for her if she is the dem nominee. I am going to leave the block for president blank.