McCain Still Failing To Close With GOP Voters

"McCain Can't Close the Deal." If the mainstream media were truly being evenhanded, that's the headline that would appear in newspapers and news magazines around the country. Why? Because even after he became the presumptive Republican presidential candidate on March 4 -- when Ohio, Texas, Vermont, and Rhode Island held their primaries and Mike Huckabee dropped out -- McCain can't seem to rally GOP voters behind him. In the past two months, despite McCain's status as the designated nominee, GOP primary voters have delivered significant protest votes to Huckabee and Ron Paul (who has made few campaign appearances), as well as other candidates who ended their campaigns long ago. In states as different as Mississippi, Pennsylvania, Indiana, and North Carolina, McCain only attracted between 73% and 79% of primary voters -- hardly the groundswell one would expect once the field had been cleared.

In the March 11 Mississippi primary, Huckabee garnered 12.5% of the vote, Paul won almost 4%, while Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney, who had already shut down their failing campaigns in January and February, respectively, each won 1.5% of the vote. This left McCain with only 79% of Republican votes. In the closed GOP Pennsylvania primary on April 22, McCain only won 73% of the vote, while Paul won 16% and Huckabee took 11%.

On May 6 in Indiana, Huckabee won 10%, Paul almost 8% and the long-gone Romney received 5% of the vote. McCain managed to win only 77.5% of the primary vote. In North Carolina that day, the shuttered Huckabee campaign netted 12% of the Republican primary vote, while Paul won 7%, and Alan Keyes, whose never even mounted a campaign and who announced in April that he was leaving the Republican Party, won 2.6% of the vote. McCain captured only 74% of the vote.

There are obviously many Republicans dissatisfied with McCain as their nominee. But you wouldn't know it if you relied on the mainstream media for analysis. Every newspaper, news magazine, and TV and radio political commentator has weighed in on whether Barack Obama can win enough white votes to beat McCain. They all prognosticate about whether the Democrats who supported Hillary Clinton in the primaries will vote for Obama or switch to McCain in November. But there's been hardly any parallel examination of McCain's inability to rally Republicans behind his candidacy, even two months after he was clearly the party's nominee.

There is clearly a strong anti-McCain sentiment among two wings of the Republican Party. The Huckabee voters represent the evangelical part of the GOP. The Paul supporters reflect the strong strain of libertarianism within the party. Although McCain has in recent months maneuvered to win over both wings of the party, and has garnered some support from visible evangelical leaders, many rank-and-file Republican voters still harbor strong suspicions of the Arizona Senator.

McCain's most notable effort to garner evangelical support was his prolonged courting of Rev. John Hagee, pastor of a Texas megachurch, who finally came around to endorse McCain on February 27. But as Frank Rich observed in a recent New York Times column, Hagee's endorsement could cost McCain as many, or more, votes than it could win, especially if the media were doing its job as exposing the minister's outlandish views. (Compare its almost invisible coverage of Hagee with its 24/7 reporting about Rev. Jeremiah Wright).

On several occasions Hagee has said that God created Hurricane Katrina to punish New Orleans for its sins, particularly a scheduled "homosexual parade there on the Monday that Katrina came." Hagee called the Catholic Church "the great whore" and "a false cult system." The Catholic League, which has published a list of Hagee's "slurs" against the church, has called on McCain to renounce the endorsement. How would Catholic voters, especially in key swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New Mexico, feel about McCain if they knew that he has refused to reject Hagee's endorsement?

McCain should be equally concerned about whether Ron Paul's supporters will stay within the Republican fold in November. Some pundits might say that Paul's libertarian voters will hold their noses and vote for McCain because they have nowhere else to go, politically. But this is no longer true now that Bob Barr, the extreme right-wing former Republican Congressman from Georgia, and a National Rifle Association board member, announced this week (May 12) that he's seeking to run for President on the Libertarian ticket.

In fact, the Washington Times reported that some Republican leaders are concerned that Barr's candidacy may hurt McCain, especially in some key swing states where a few thousands votes could be the margin of victory or defeat.

The media are often accused of resorting to "horse race" journalism, focusing on poll results and political maneuvering instead of policy issues. In the current presidential campaigns, however, reporters have spent almost all their time at the Democratic race track and, since McCain essentially captured his party's nomination, hardly any time watching the Republican horses. If they had, they may have noticed that many Republican voters are still rooting for other horses besides McCain, surely a sign of a candidate with significant weaknesses. In the Republican horse race, the media seem to be giving McCain a free ride.

Peter Dreier is professor of politics at Occidental College in Los Angeles.

Comments

[KevinMast]

"Hagee called the Catholic Church "the great whore" and "a false cult system." This is the most truthful statement to come out of anyone who has backed McCain.

[KarateKid]

The MSM is a joke. My brother in law, who works for Focus On The Family, is NOT a McCain supporter, and neither is the organization. The founder and chairman says he is sitting this election out.

The neocons are sharply criticizing McCain for his stance on the environment. Rush Limbaugh excoriated him today.

George F. Will, a conservative, had these things to say: http://www.newsweek.com/id/136308

Over 100,000 people voted for OTHER candidates in Indiana and No. Carolina alone.

Yet, MSM says it is going to be a close race. This is not a surprise, considering they have to sell ad space and compete for viewership, and the fact is, a close race, even of their own making, makes for better drama.

All one has to do is look at the voter turnout in the primaries. The difference in the total number of votes on the Democratic side v.s. the turnout for the Republican side is enormous, often 3 to 1.

MSM has an agenda.......hype the drama as much as possible; it sells better than a blowout.

[PuritanDescendant]

McCain is like a reverse Pinocchio. Once a living concientous boy (2000), he has transformed backwards into a wooden marionette, carved by Rove, blessed by Hagee & co., given voice by Lieberman, and manipulated by his campaign staff lobbyists. Anyone seen that cricket?

[justpatrick]

John McCain should be targeting the middle, not the fringes of either party. This election may be dictated on change, but it's the middle that will win this election, not a fringe element.

[Kache]

He'd going after the fringe because that's all Obama's going to leave him.

[CornellRedneck]

Yeah, nice little pipedream. Here's a reality check: Daily, conservatives and independents are closing ranks with McCain, liking what they hear (or at least being able to tolerate it). And, the frosting on the cake is that McCain is a bona fide military hero and darling of a grateful MSN.

Meanwhile, every day diminishes Hillary and Obama. Every day they appear a bit shabbier, more shrill, surprisingly more crude, racist and banal. And oh, lest we forget, Obama has never donned his nation's uniform, sorta ala Dick Cheney; while Hillary is still married to a draft dodger.

So then, you were saying...?

[PuritanDescendant]

Right, like conservatives were ever going to vote for a Democrat. McCain may be drawing conservatives in, but as noted elsewhere, this election will be decided in the middle. The middle and the conservatives (who have gone ideological on us) are almost mutually exclusive. Bush won with strong appeal to conservatives (who knew exactly what they were voting for) and others who voted based on party allegiance (and others who voted in ignorance). McCain is going to have a difficult time getting both conservatives and independents. Given the toxicity of Bush and the neocon agenda, Obama might be better able to simultaneously appeal to independents, moderates, and Democratic liberals.

Have you noticed that the GOP is now the third smallest party in the U.S., after Independents (if you consider them a party)? As Newt recently wrote, a majority of the public trusts the Democratic party over the GOP on every major issue. The GOP either has to change their positions, persuade the public that their policies are best, or else resign itself to one day looking around the room and finding itself in the company of the Greens, the Libertarians, etc.

Adios GOP, I'll hardly miss you.

signed, independen­t-who-vote­d-Reagan-B­ush1-Bush1­-Dole but saw Bush for the disaster-w­aiting-to-­happen that he turned out to be.

[KarateKid]

It's this kind of ignorance that led me away from the Republican Party. I voted for Ford, Reagan twice, H.W. Bush twice, and Dole, but not for W.

The Party of Lincoln was hijacked by the bigots, crooks and hypocrites in the early 1990s. Look what the Republican Congress did after getting elected on a "Tax and Spend Democrats" message.....they spent us into the 22nd century, they manufactured a war based on a lie that has killed over 4000 soldiers, they flushed the economy down the toilet, and the leadership feathered their own nest. In other words, they were worse than the Democrats they replaced and hypocrites to boot.

They will get what they deserve in November.

[Kache]

What!?! John McCain is Donald Rumsfeld wearing an Elmer Fudd costume. People are either laughing at him or crying about him. He wont get 30% of the vote.

[CornellRedneck]

Strike a nerve, honey? LOL!

[winzme]

Given that McCain did denounce anti-Catholicism with specific mention of Hagee according to a 3/10/2008 Catholic League article. The Huffington post apparently missed this for all their concern about honesty in reporting. Catholic League president Bill Donohue stated “Sen. McCain has done the right thing and we salute him for doing so. As far as the Catholic League is concerned, this case is closed.” Lets hope the media can be as responsible in their reporting.

Barr may hurt the Republican vote, he may hurt the Democrat vote. There were not many details on his web page of how he stood on the issues, the media should give him reasonable coverage if he does run despite the fact he is not with a major party.

Perhaps if our political system were to change to the point the voters had more influence our elections would matter more. The electoral system needs to be abandoned. The two major political parties need to lose any and all advantage they get, more choices need to be available. Primaries need to be dropped, and legal registered voters need to have the opportunity to vote for who they think is best as a candidate, without influence from media which does not cover all of the candidates fairly and completely. Voter ID and proof of citizenship, paper trails for electronic voting, are all valid desires for a clean, honest election. Perhaps if we had cleaner elections and election coverage, we would have better government.

[PuritanDescendant]

McCain ought to denounce Hagee as strongly as Obama was expected to denounce Farakhan. To this day McCain is trying to get the fringe-evangelical vote and the moderate vote at the same time. If he continues trying to win as a part-Bush part-moderate hybrid, he's going to get whalloped. To have a decent chance, he would need to go fully moderate, meaning moderate policy initiatives, not the same old conservative mantras we've seen so far.

The election will be based on issues this year, and McCain's positions are on the losing side of almost of the issues. Healthcare, economy, Iraq, are all losers for McCain. What is left??

[KarateKid]

George F. Will calls McCain the peripatetic pinball.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/136308

[jupitor]

What ? you want the media to give Mccain a break on Hagee, after going after wright with obama! anyou say that responsibale reporting? Why should Sen Mccain get a break because he said the same words Obama said, and they kept going after Obama, as did Mccain and his croonies, who are still going after him! You people don't know what fair play is and it angers me! Well isn't it nice the cathelic church pat him on the back and say it's done! To bad they weren't big enough to come out and say that what Mccain and hagee was saying about wright should be done to! Mccain has been far dirtier as has Joe lieberman toward Obama . ya well you can bet Mccain and his croonies won't drop any thing against obama! The media should be fair to both. At this point Mccain has gotten a free ride, compaired to obama! So why are you yellng for them to be fair and drop this? Your so scared Mccain will have to finally and I say finally have to face the back lash of Rev. Hagee just like obama has had to with wright, and you don't think Mccain can survive it!

[Kache]

And everybody should get a pony.

[ThirdSection]

And thus, we have a fat and happy John McCain who is completely unprepared for the colossal walloping he is about to receive.

[Stirner]

I'm a registered Republican, and I voted for Bush in 2004 (I apologize). Anyhow, we suddenly found our own Party was totally neoconned. Off to war, into debt, and a Nanny state complete with Nazi-style alphabet-soup enforcers. So, what does the good old G.O.P. come up with in 2008? The "comeback kid" (the comeback following his endorsement of Lieberman) McCain. Upon that, Ron Paul suddenly found himself the butt of jokes and then was silenced by his own Party. Now, do the Republican "leadership" really think that I, and a few more like me, would vote for that silly war-hungry torture advocate and his string-puller Lieberman? I have an indelible memory of once, during a debate, when Paul was given a bit of time to present his viewpoint, the T.V. camera lingered lovingly over the sniggering face of McCain.

[Tess101]

Stirner:
I agree with you 100%. I too am a long time Conservative Republican, and will not be voting for McCain. He is currently pandering to La Raza, and the hispanic community for his vote, this does not bode well especially in California where we have one of the largest illegal immigration problems in the nation. My ancestors came to this country legally with no problems, it took time, but to them it was worth becoming citizens. The illegals are milking our system, and we are paying for it. McCain is our country's worse enemy He says he will not allow Amnesty, but we know he will allow them to stay, and not pay the price of becoming citizens legally. I know it is difficult, and time consuming to become a citizen, but when you have a country that is experiencing an economic meltdown our government cannot expect it's citizens to pay for criminal/illegal immigrants any longer. We must enforce our laws, and deport them. We must return to a Constitutional form of government with less spending, taxes, no more welfare state, and protect our individual freedom and liberty. Ron Paul has my support, and there is no way I can ever support McCain. I would love to see one of these big media sources put together a debate between Ron Paul, and McCain, so the American public will finally see how little McCain actually knows about our economy, and monetary system, Ron Paul would run circles around McCain.

[PuritanDescendant]

This raises an interesting question. Do you think that supporters of illegal immigrants (liberals, many hispanics, perhaps others) outnumber people opposed to any form of amnesty? Just curious. The illegal immigration issue hasn't reached the forefront yet, but as in most politics, the side with the most votes will have the advantage.

[Pyrum]

I would love to see a debate, too, but don't hold your breath. McCain would never agree to such a thing. He has nothing to gain and much to lose from attempting to debate Ron Paul, and he knows it.