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Peter H. Gleick

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It's Hotter Than It Used to Be; It's Not as Hot as It's Going to Be

Posted: 07/21/11 07:06 PM ET

Holy crap it's hot. People, animals, and crops are dying.

But not only is it hot, it's hotter than it used to be. And it's our fault. Welcome to the future of climate change.

Let's keep this simple: we know the Earth is warming up -- the data are unambiguous.* We know that humans are largely responsible -- the scientific community has been clear. And we know that the massive efforts to deny these two facts have confused policy makers, the public, and the media and have seriously delayed taking any sort of effective policy action to slow climate changes.

What this delay means, however, is rarely discussed, but in the most straightforward terms:
It's going to get even hotter. A lot hotter.

Global warming is causing or worsening some of the extreme weather we're seeing. This influence of climate change on some extremes, including especially heat waves and heavy precipitation and some kinds of storm and flood events must no longer be waved away, swept under the rug, or otherwise ignored. It must become part of our daily discussion and debate. Until then, our politicians, in their air-conditioned chambers, under pressure from lobbyists and others who fear the policies that must inevitably be put in place to reduce our atmospheric pollution, will continue to look the other way.

You know the old conversation starter? "Is it hot enough for you?"

Well, just wait.


* "The indicators show unequivocally that the world continues to warm," said Dr. Thomas R. Karl, director of the National Climatic Data Center. "There is a clear and unmistakable signal from the top of the atmosphere to the depths of the oceans," said Dr. Peter Thorne of the Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, North Carolina State University.

 
 
 

Follow Peter H. Gleick on Twitter: www.twitter.com/PeterGleick

Holy crap it's hot. People, animals, and crops are dying. But not only is it hot, it's hotter than it used to be. And it's our fault. Welcome to the future of climate change. Let's keep this simple:...
Holy crap it's hot. People, animals, and crops are dying. But not only is it hot, it's hotter than it used to be. And it's our fault. Welcome to the future of climate change. Let's keep this simple:...
 
 
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PATOISJAM
reason: strategize: succeed
10:33 AM on 07/28/2011
The wonderful thing in all of thise CC debate is that the climate and its resultant bizaare weather does not have to cooperate or collaborate with any scientist to show what is really what. Yes, Peter Gleick, I am just waiting for the Earth to do its thing.
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Publicola
Reality has a scientific bias
05:58 PM on 07/28/2011
The globe has been warming over recent decades, just as AGW theory predicted it would.

Which is to say the Earth has been "doing its thing" for decades now - what are you waiting for?
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Publicola
Reality has a scientific bias
12:38 PM on 07/26/2011
StephenBP: "The unmistakable upward trend in global average temperatures... has been steadily rising decade by decade."

Junksciencecutecritters: "You meant to say 'global average temperatures as prepared by James Hansen'..."

You seem confused again, JunkScience.

Global average temperature datasets are compiled and reported by several sources.  All of these datasets show an increasing global temperature trend over recent decades, including not just NASA's (where James Hanson works) surface dataset (GISS) but also for example the University of Alabama, Huntsville's satellite dataset (UAH). 

The GISS and UAH datasets are in close agreement with each other:

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2011/07/13/bob-carter-does-his-business/

In your multi-year ongoin effort to obfuscate the fact that the globe has warmed over recent decades you JunkScience have repeatedly tried to imply that Dr. James Hanson has been lying with respect to the GISS dataset. Your slanderous obfuscation would only be logically valid, however, if all scientists who create and maintain all of the global temperature datasets are  also lying with respect to said datasets. That list of "lying" scientists would include the scientists who create and maintain the UAH dataset: Dr. Roy Spencer and Dr. John Christie.

Do you maintain that Dr. Spencer and Dr. Christie -- who also happen to be two of the relatively very few climate scientists that are also AGW "skeptics" -- are lying or otherwise dishonest with respect to the UAH global temperature record, JunkScience?

If not, your obfuscation is logically invalid, you know.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
givemtheirwish
Science is the belief in ignorance of "experts"
10:00 AM on 07/26/2011
Re Climate Change & the 3rd world. Wouldn't it be great if we could increase CO2 levels to boost agri yields. Doubling current CO2 levels would improve food crop yields as listed below:

Wheat 60%
Legumes 62%
Other cereals 70%
Fruits 33%
Tuber crops 67%
Vegetables 51%

I'm reliably informed that Schopenhauer was thinking of AGW when making the following comment:--
"There is no opinion, however absurd,which men will not readily embrace as soon as they can be brought to theconviction that it is generally adopted."
(Schopenhauer,
Die Kunst Recht zu Behalten)
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gallon
Those who fail to remember history are, um
10:58 AM on 07/26/2011
Bunkum.

Are you going to guarantee that the temperature remains optimum for each species? Can you guarantee they will receive additional water to support all the new growth?

I predict crops will be disrupted by heat, by drought, and less than optimum conditions. Wheat likes it cool. It won't fare well in higher heat.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
givemtheirwish
Science is the belief in ignorance of "experts"
12:46 PM on 07/26/2011
"Bunkum" - is that the new technical term for AGW / ACC????

"guarantee" - are you guaranteeing that the climate models the acolytes prescribe to are 100% accurate?????

CO2 is treated by the acolytes as a pollutant whereas in reality it helps make God's wonderful planet livable & nourishes flora (in layman's terms).
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B Wood
02:36 PM on 08/17/2011
Gallon,

Great name!. From now on, whenever givemtheirwish uses the word acolyte or a variation of acolyte, we should just respond with Bunkum
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Publicola
Reality has a scientific bias
12:52 PM on 07/26/2011
Hey givemtheirwish,

You claim to be a scientist and yet you've repeatedly refused to answer a relatively simple climate science question - upteenth-time's a charm?

Do you agree that the Greenhouse Effect is real, and that it keeps the mean temperature of the Earth well above freezing? If not, why not?

[ Que: still more evasion and disinformation from wishy. ]
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
givemtheirwish
Science is the belief in ignorance of "experts"
01:40 PM on 07/26/2011
You really are quite tenacious (or tedious) Publicola. OF COURSE the Greenhouse Effect is real. Fourier, Tyndall et al understood that in the 1800's It accounts for a differential of circa 35c. So what??????
p.s. if you say Greenhouse Effect is real ergo AGW isn't a complete fraud I'll fall off my chair laughing (YET AGAIN).
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Publicola
Reality has a scientific bias
03:23 PM on 07/26/2011
Thank you givemtheirwish for finally answering one of two relatively simple climate science questions that I have repeatedly asked you. Care to now answer the other question too? Here it is again - I look forward to your direct and complete answer:

Do you agree that CO2 is the most plentiful greenhouse gas that can drive global warming? If not, why not?
07:54 AM on 07/26/2011
At some point you have to stop and acknowledge:

FACT: recent volcanic activity not only disrupts flight paths, but contributes to sulfur in the earths atmosphere. Sulfur reflects solar radiation back in to space, contributing to global cooling.
FACT: the sun is in a low period or solar irradiation as per its 11 year cycle, resulting in less solar irradiation hitting the planet contributing to cooling.
FACT: El Niño & La Niña weather patterns exist and cause extreme heating or cooling.

Good luck in around 7 years from now, when the sun will be at full irradiation, the sulfur from volcanic eruptions will have dispersed and a El Niño weather pattern forms. Good Luck!

FACT:
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08:45 PM on 07/25/2011
Air conditioning technology just keeps getting better. Bring it!
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gallon
Those who fail to remember history are, um
06:17 PM on 07/26/2011
All those Africans and Bangladeshi, who can't scrape together a meal to keep alive, can just retreat to their condos and turn up the air.
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06:40 PM on 07/26/2011
The Africans and the Bangladeshi (and the Hatians and the Brazillians) need to industrialize.

I don't think CO2 restrictions will help those people. In fact, it's pretty clear that, in order to become less poor, they will need to emit more CO2. Then they will be better able to stay alive, and will even buy air conditioners.
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StephenBP
What's he building in there?
06:39 PM on 07/25/2011
The unmistakable upward trend in global average temperatures... not the temperature on the porch of your favorite red necked hardware store, mind you, but the global average... has been steadily rising decade by decade. Anyone who doubts that doesn't observe nature very well or doesn't know someone who does. They probably don't farm, or garden, or hunt, or fish, or know anyone who does, I would guess.

To miss the upward temperature trend which is now so glaringly apparent, is to be completely blind to reality. You don't have to invoke anything other than your own powers of observation, and if you don't have any, then you are at the mercy of the Koch brothers, and Exxon Mobil, and the Heartworm Institute or other known providers of petroleum prevarication.... after all, doubt is good for their bottom line.. no mystery there...no tin foil hats.... just business as usual.
10:48 PM on 07/25/2011
You meant to say "global average temperatures as prepared by James Hansen", who would never tell a lie.
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lbsaltzman
Permaculture and Sustainability
11:12 PM on 07/25/2011
Actually, I don't think he would lie. He is one of the world's preeminent scientists and deserves praise from all of us for his work. He doesn't deserve his reputation sullied by people putting out unfounded slanders that he lies.
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StephenBP
What's he building in there?
07:04 AM on 07/26/2011
If you bothered to read a bit more about the urban heat island myth, you would realize that it does not diminish the upward trend, because even the heat islands are getting hotter.
But I guess you would rather be dependent on the Nanny power plant ( coal powered, thank you ) and the Nanny Saudis ( Oh yes prince Fizoil! Whatever you say!) and cling to the past while the world progresses right by you.
Your choice, CC.
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BluePhantom2
The Blacksmith & the Artist reflected in their art
05:32 PM on 07/25/2011
So whats up with the satelite data from NASA that says the climate has steadied in the last 10 years and all that goobldy gook about Chinese coal dust?
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lbsaltzman
Permaculture and Sustainability
09:17 PM on 07/25/2011
Sulfur from coal burning slowed the rate of global warming. It had nothing to do with coal dust. And the climate has not steadied so please cite the study you are referring to.
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lrae2007
05:12 PM on 07/25/2011
It can be said Bible doctrine can easily breed passivity. After all, it's not hard to become fatalistic when the perceived declaration in the Book of Revelations is that the earth will indeed burn itself up...after 1000 years of peace.
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eaarth2
“An era ends when its illusions are exhausted
04:22 PM on 07/25/2011
Earth's Climate History: Implications for Tomorrow
By James E. Hansen and Makiko Sato – July 2011

The past is the key to the future. Contrary to popular belief, climate models are not the principal basis for assessing human-made climate effects. Our most precise knowledge comes from Earth's paleoclimate, its ancient climate, and how it responded to past changes of climate forcings, including atmospheric composition. Our second essential source of information is provided by global observations today, especially satellite observations, which reveal how the climate system is responding to rapid human-made changes of atmospheric composition, especially atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Models help us interpret past and present climate changes, and, in so far as they succeed in simulating past changes, they provide a tool to help evaluate the impacts of alternative policies that affect climate.

read the rest
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/hansen_15/PaleoImplications.pdf
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Robco1
06:53 PM on 07/25/2011
Excellent summary and informative post. Thanks!
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eaarth2
“An era ends when its illusions are exhausted
07:16 PM on 07/25/2011
glad you liked- I try and stay up on the latest research.
airmikee99
I can has micro-bio?
01:35 PM on 07/25/2011
The earth is flat, only 6000 years old, and isn't getting hotter. My neighbor said so, and he's a pretty damn good mechanic. ;)
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givemtheirwish
Science is the belief in ignorance of "experts"
10:52 AM on 07/25/2011
I liked Pointman's articles on the THE BIG GREEN KILLING MACHINE.

This one is on how Green Imperialism is effectively killing kids in the third world due to VAD.

http://thepointman.wordpress.com/2011/05/20/the-big-green-killing-machine-what-is-vad/

John Holdren will be pleased...............
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DocSkull
My questions aren't rhetorical.
11:53 AM on 07/25/2011
Are you still working on providing an example of a failed climate model? You said they had all failed, so if you weren't lying it should be easy for name a model and describe how it failed.
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AGooglyMinotaur
Ahh, Theseus. It appears you are out of thread.
12:39 PM on 07/25/2011
Myopic and infantile as ever.

If you want to know the other side of the exact same argument, look at what GM crops have done to agricultural workers in India. Genetically-modified crops are designed to be infertile, so that they cannot reproduce on their own and farmers must instead return to Monsanto to buy more seeds.

Faced with difficult weather conditions, droughts and so forth due to failed monsoons, many of these farmers who lost their initial yields have no money to purchase a round of seeds for the following year. Starving, and deeply in debt, more than 17,000 farmers commit suicide every year.
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tednarcotic
I'm just the singer
08:30 AM on 07/25/2011
This is not my idea but I like it. There are not two sides to every issue.Here is an easy example, the Earth is flat. There is the position that the earth is a globe and not a flat plane. Any argument that the Earth is flat does not have enough merit to warrant any discussion. It is clear now that any argument against the idea that the Earth is getting hotter and is continuing to do so is not an argument that deserves to be discussed in the media.There are not two sides to that argument.Some say that the problem is not man made and I believe that not even Fox News can find purchase to launch that idea.
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ReedYoung
global mean temperature, obviously INCREASING
10:18 AM on 07/25/2011
Completely agreed. One can contradict any self-evidently true statement -- by lying! Lying about any subject can forge "two sides" but the important fact is that they are not equally valid sides. Your take on the absurd flat earth "side" is very similar to the great Isaac Asimov's, in his essay The Relativity of Wrong.

The young specialist in English Lit, having quoted me, went on to lecture me severely on the fact that in every century people have thought they understood the universe at last, and in every century they were proved to be wrong. It follows that the one thing we can say about our modern "knowledge" is that it is wrong...
My answer to him was, "John, when people thought the earth was flat, they were wrong. When people thought the earth was spherical, they were wrong. But if you think that thinking the earth is spherical is just as wrong as thinking the earth is flat, then your view is wronger than both of them put together."

http://chem.tufts.edu/AnswersInScience/RelativityofWrong.htm
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Counterintuitive
We'll steer by the beacon of our 100 year forecast
02:33 AM on 07/25/2011
I'm not sure you can this a scientific debate since only one side is honestly using science and the other side just skates around all the key facts and figures..
So lets treat it like a real figure skating event and appoint judges to mark the participants.
Here's how I've awarded points so far.

Rationalists: 98 Points Rhetorics: 2 Points (Perhaps due to Ork's hot spot flirtations)

These numbers coincidentally line up with the percentages of Climatologists who accept the science.
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gallon
Those who fail to remember history are, um
03:20 AM on 07/25/2011
The all-rhetoric team is still out there furiously skating on thin ice.
01:07 AM on 07/25/2011
I'm having some pain issues and my comments are muddled. Please excuse me.
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Counterintuitive
We'll steer by the beacon of our 100 year forecast
03:05 AM on 07/25/2011
No need to be excused. Painkillers can have that effect. Muddled thinking is greatly undervalued. Just ask Christopher Columbus after he landed in India.
01:03 AM on 07/25/2011
I'm probably good for another 20 years. Next incarnation will be less fortunate, I'm sure.
Until Sol enters the red giant stage of solar life I'm expecting rebirth in whatever bio-mass
survives. At last report it extended from higher reach of planet atmosphere down into hot
water within the crustal rock. After our planet is vaporized I'm expected an eventual nova
to scatter most of our basic elements outward. I'd expect something to come of that.
I'm not unhappy. You won't blame me doing kjangchag either.
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Counterintuitive
We'll steer by the beacon of our 100 year forecast
02:55 AM on 07/25/2011
Human lifespans are increasing by 4 hours each day. Ray Kurzweil say that fifteen more years will increase this beyond 24 hours per day. The logic of the Singularity is that if you can survive the next 15 years you'll probably survive the next 1000.