An important secret of the Big Man in New Jersey begins as a mystery. Observers note that the governor's favorability ratings in the Garden State typically lag behind his job approval ratings. Favorability ratings tend to reflect more on personality. Approval ratings reflect more on policy. One question asks, do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Christie? The other question asks whether you approve or disapprove of the job Christie is doing. Subtle, but important. And Christie's numbers are the mirror opposite in this regard from President Obama's, whose favorability (personal) ratings have tended to exceed his job approval.
Some who try to resolve this difference are happy to explain that Christie has tragic personality flaws: he is a bully, intemperate of mouth, confrontational, unwilling to compromise. But such description is quickly countermanded by the hilarious tales Christie tells to rapt audiences, his willingness to poke fun at himself and the most recent reports of his sincere boosterism for All Things New Jersey.
The better explanation for his favorability ratings lagging behind his job approvals is that he is a Republican in a Democratic-leaning state, and thus partisans of the opposite stripe are psychologically obligated to object, at least until they consider whether they like or dislike his policies. Put the other way 'round, Christie's job approval leads his favorability ratings because his policies poll well. In fact, many Christie proposals poll not just well, but very well, and lead both his favorability ratings and his job approval ratings.
So, forget his personality. Those pesky voters ultimately want to know what you are planning to do in that public office to alleviate their perennial misery. In this sense, Christie's conservative message is the right kind at the right time: fiscal. Wandering into social issues is not part of his plan. Gun rights, abortion and gay marriage are not subjects on which he wants to elocute. Keep it about the money.
Taxes out of control? Yeah, baby!
Outlandish payouts for public employees? Sickening.
Corruption? I. Am. Splenetic.
Crappy urban schools even after a few billion dollars? Outrageous!
Legislators getting paid twice for their public jobs? Choking back vomit.
Carping remarks amplified by newspaper salesmen? Shut. Up. Numb. Nuts.
But, still, it's not the personality. It's the policy.
One exception to Christie's populist sense, some said recently, would be the scheme to merge a branch campus of Rutgers University with an obscure state college in rural south Jersey. Alumni hearts were in a-fib. Professors were apoplectic. Cynics pounced. The local press purred. But an MU poll showed that most New Jerseyans hardly gave a fig: 56 percent said they neither approved or nor disapproved, but didn't know, didn't care, or didn't care to know. Among the remainder, 20 percent said it was a good idea, 22 percent said it was a bad idea. Snore.
Similarly, there are many issues on which Christie is criticized, or praised, in his state but the impact of these must be discounted so long as they are not at, or even near, the top of central issues broadly shared by voters of both parties. The central issues have to do with money: taxes, spending, the economy. It is not a secret of success for a politician to promise to follow the wishes of the electorate, but actually to stick to campaign promises is much easier said than done. It is not that Christie said he would follow the wishes of electorate and pursue reform, but that either he has pretty much done as he said he would do, or that many voters at least perceive that he has stuck to his platform.
Naturally, his professional opposition in the Garden State has been trying hard to get him to egregiously break a promise. This is largely the reason the legislature's majority party has pushed so hard to pass a "millionaires tax", raising the marginal tax rate on high earners. It is also the reason that Christie refused to go along with any such proposal.
Similarly, he relished the cancellation of a new tunnel into New York that had been in the works for years. While the state technically had enough money in its transportation fund to pay for its share of the project, cost overruns would have been billed exclusively to New Jersey. But, more important, there would have been only crumbs left to fill potholes on the notorious and essential Turnpike -- meaning he would be forced to raise the gas tax or tolls.
In short, he is not about to pull a George Bush (41) and go back on his no-new-taxes pledge, despite that polls repeatedly show New Jersey voters are quite willing to raise taxes on other people in the state -- just not on themselves. Christie realizes that every tax proposal is a poison-pill, designed to ruin him. If he raises taxes, even on the rich, he becomes a pledge-breaker and mistrusted by a broad, middle swath of voters. If he does not raise taxes, even on the rich, he will be merely a Republican. To date, he has chosen the latter.
Dan Cassino and Peter J. Woolley are professors of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson University in Madison, New Jersey. Cassino is Director of Experimental Research for the University's research group, PublicMind: Woolley is its founding Executive Director. This is the second in a series on Chris Christie.
Follow Peter J. Woolley on Twitter: www.twitter.com/FDUpublicmind
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 |
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| Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|
| Electoral Votes (270 to win) |
332 | 206 |
| Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|
| Total | 65,899,660 | 60,932,152 |
| Percent | 51.1% | 47.2% |
| Democrats* | Republicans | |
|---|---|---|
| Current Senate | 53 | 47 |
| Seats gained or lost | +2 | -2 |
| New Total | 55 | 45 |
| Democrats | Republicans | |
|---|---|---|
| Seats won | 201 | 234 |
His policies and his ability to actually do the job, are what's impressive. His personality and his obesity mean nothing.
Most people don't know that he's trying to get medical marijuana up and running in the state. The laws have been passed and signed by him. The only reason he's not moving more quickly is because Obama's Justice Dept won't give him reassurances that state employees won't be subject to prosecution if they run the operation...and he won't put them in that sort of legal jeopardy.
He's the best gov NJ has had in 20 years...or more.
Also, I recommend following the Pollster pages in HuffPo for a great political education!
How smart is alexithymic Mitt to have this nasty bully give the opening speech at the GOP convention?
I still love him for his personality.
For decades both sides, when in power, agreed to enhanced benefits down the road instead of increased payroll for those employees NOW. That helped balance a current budget, but kicked the can down the road. Well--those employees and the government entered into a contract. The employees held up their side. But the government (and the taxpayers) now want out. They say that the employees, who gave up money in the past, are not entitled to the terms of the contract they upheld.
So--for all of you screaming that these people are making too much--how would you feel if your employer told you "yep, we agreed to a yearly salary--but it is October and I want to pay you for the rest of the year" or "yep, you and we funded your 401K, but now I think it is too big so I'm taking it back"?
Just not fair.
Christie's performance on jobs,taxes and "good government" s not that good. I would say that he is, instead, a master at feeding NJ voters what they want to hear. In other words, the nastiness he lets losse on a regular basis at popular targets sits welll with folks in NJ. He has had some successes at the budget, and holding the line on taxes. But the big problem with taxes in NJ (and the writers know it) is PROPERTY , not income taxes. We have the densest population in th nation, but rely more on this archaicr evenue raiser than any other state. As everyone knows, property taxes are based on the value of one's property, not aon one's ability to pay. This wasn't a problem in 1790, when most people's ability to pay was tied up in the land (farming). It is now, as people own homes then get old or disabled or unemployed. Chritie's solution was a "cap' on increases. But such caps are notoriusly ineffective in the long run. In the meantime, NJ has an unemployment rate of 9.6%- 1.4% higher than the national average. He has no oplans to deal with that- except the national GOP mantra of tax cuts for the wealthy. As far as "good government", he has been fiercely political about the courts has not abandoned the spoils system nor has he ended the "i'll work 100 hours a week for my last 2 years" pension problem.