Vice President Joe Biden's Munich speech a few weeks ago talked about "resetting" relations with Russia. So does this augur a whole new moment in Russo-American relations? Are we on the cusp of a major international perestroika after years of worsening relations with Russia?
We fiction writers have recently put Russia back into its role as a novelist's favorite fierce antagonist. Recent offerings like Daniel Silva's Moscow Rules, Ted Bell's Tsar, and my own Pipeline reassign Russia its place of concern for political leaders, intelligence agencies and military planners. It would be a pity for them to take all that away.
That Russia provides good book material is no surprise. The non-fiction Russia uses natural resources for coercion. It militarily overwhelms a small neighbor. Crushes domestic dissension through physical or psychological intimidation. It suffers from near-obsessive mistrust of foreigners' intentions. Oligarchs and Kremlin bureaucrats are locked in a maze of corruption, mafia and violence.
So, how does America reconcile this reality with its foreign policy needs? A new era of Glasnost across the Bering Strait is by no means assured with an autocratic state spinning into economic chaos. But there is no choice but to try.
As it considers its options with Russia, the new administration must wrestle with two potentially contradictory considerations. On the one hand, no matter how good the fodder for fiction, Washington must "reset" relations that have gone badly off track with this prominent nuclear-tipped, 11 time-zone behemoth. On the other hand, events in the financial and energy markets may have inadvertently exposed an uncomfortable quandary: Does the New Russia actually matter all that much?
As demand and prices for its commodities soared, Russia has gotten rich without making much of anything. When is the last time you bought something with a 'Made in Russia' label? No textiles. No computers. No cars of any worth. No refrigerators or washing machines. No services. Even Stolichnaya is now bottled in Latvia.
Depressed energy prices and weak demand means that petro-states have lost the saber they used to rattle. As the Kremlin's finances flounder, some see a possibility that Vladmir Putin could even lose his hold on power -- but not before Putin's Siloviki (security bureaucrats) apparatus fights tooth and nail to hang on to money and clout.
Worsening matters for Russia, western environmental and national security concerns are accelerating technologies that could reduce the west's dependence on hydrocarbons. When the United States announces a serious conservation policy that reduces fossil fuel consumption -- and with President Barack Obama this will happen -- Moscow could find its long term geostrategic position increasingly eroded.
Yet, notwithstanding its difficulties, let's remember that engaging Russia is better policy than the previous administration's pinballing between infatuation and thoughtless antagonism. Yes, Moscow hasn't exactly been a reliable ally. But as Professor Dimitri Simes says: "Nor has it acted like an enemy, much less an enemy with global ambitions and a hostile and messianic ideology."
It is clear now that the Bush administration's desire to place advanced warning missile defense systems so close to Russia's borders was a miscalculation. Similarly mistaken was the willy-nilly rhetoric of NATO expansion.
At a time of so many competing financial, military and political priorities, U.S. policy must first and foremost prevent Russia's return to the top of America's international worries. US policy needs breathing space to tackle priority number one: the growing arc of Mideast violence from the Mediterranean to the Hindu Kush.
Perhaps the place to start is to communicate a willingness to revisit missile defense. Iran's early February satellite launch may now have impeded the removal of the Polish-based anti-missile sites. But the United States can agree to provide Russia ongoing, verifiable reassurances that the systems will remain directed at "rogue states" and have nothing at all to do with Russia.
Given the regime in Moscow, this is a relationship fraught with difficulty. The United States needs to demand clear results: meaningful cooperation on the Iranian nuclear issue, anti-terrorism, non-proliferation and the spread of nuclear materials.
So far, signs are not encouraging. Russians convinced Kyrgyzstan to abrogate a U.S. airbase agreement vital to U.S operations in Afghanistan. Anti-Georgian rhetoric is rising furiously. The choking of press freedoms and internal dissent is accelerating.
Perhaps we authors will get to keep our novelistic foe? Let's hope not. The world would benefit greatly from our loss.
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It`s used in polymers manufactur
"Yes, Moscow hasn't exactly been a reliable ally"
Only the USA is the trustworth
"Nor has it acted like an enemy, much less an enemy with global ambitions and a hostile and messianic ideology."
Yes its US role.
"can agree to provide Russia ongoing, verifiable reassuranc
? Have Russians some reasons to believe?
"The United States needs to demand clear results:..
As it is good that crisis has struck USA. Everybody has tired of constant requiremen
Etc.
Let's see:
Warsaw Pact disbands, NATO continues to expand and grow in size to now include new bases in Afghanista
New ABM bases in eastern Europe and continued war games for an enemy that does not exist anymore. Georgia attacks Russian positions in S.O. starting a war that Georgia lost in a few days.
CAN YOU BLAME RUSSIA? Put yourself in their position and explain to me how would you respond?
But: CAN I BLAME RUSSIA? Yes. Who needs to be blamed ten years ago when was dangerous to be the russian ally and when you could be killed for yours russians nationalit
"The non-fictio
Forces to pay and do not allow to steal?
"It militarily overwhelms
`Small neighbor` of next american Samosa he has solved that Bush's the best friend and can force to move Russia by power of weapons. He was mistaken. So, Russian should swallow it.
"Crushes domestic dissension through physical or psychologi
It is an ancient mantra. During time, while in Russia lot of newspapers and the magazines criticisin
"It suffers from near-obses
And actually all foreigners aspire jealously of Russia`s prosperity and do not think about the own interests. Patrons of art/scienc
"Oligarchs and Kremlin bureaucrat
If you have proofs - transfer them. Russian will tell to you Big Thanks.
"11 time-zone behemoth"
The author is not a diplomat that`s why he can say in this way. I`m not a diplomat too, but I will keep silence what I think about of the author. Parents brought up me.
"When is the last time you bought something with a 'Made in Russia' label?"
The USA do not trade with Russia essentiall
Regards to economy:
1. It is our(USA) economy that is spinning out of control. We have an nsolvent financial system and a goverement unable to pay its expenses. In contrast Russia's large banks are solvent and the goverment has 200 billion in reserves to plug any shortfalls
2. Putin & Medvedev have an 80% approval rating. However, it is quite natural that fools holding positions on the boards of American NGOs and spewing absurd vitriol in a foreign language for a foreign audience are not well recieved.
3. Russia's economy.
within 7 years they will lead in
1. grain production (surpassin
2. gas (already #1)
3 oil (alread # 1)
4 civil and military aviation( superjet 100 and MS-21)
5. nuclear reactors - establishe
6 largest auto producer in Europe - all majors have factories in Russia.
Tecnology. Steve Chase from Intel sums it up best
"We at Intel have a saying: Give the urgent projects to the Americans, big projects to the Indians, and the impossible ones to the Russians. The Russians can do anything" (http://www
“They are extremely creative; they are imaginativ
http://www
That's easy to achieve when you abolish the free press.
I don't agree with everything Mr. Schechter is saying here (Russia is intractabl
I'm finding it more and more difficult differentu
War games by NATO in Scandanavi
I could go on but this proves the "what's next" scenario with Russia is simple.
The U.S. and NATO do not care for peace and they are continuing to encircle Russia and threaten her existance with war games and more bases including new ones in Afghanista
It is not Russia that is the problem or threat. It is the U.S. and NATO that is the threat to peace and stability in the world right now!