What Next in Russia?

Vice President Joe Biden's Munich speech a few weeks ago talked about "resetting" relations with Russia. So does this augur a whole new moment in Russo-American relations? Are we on the cusp of a major international perestroika after years of worsening relations with Russia?

We fiction writers have recently put Russia back into its role as a novelist's favorite fierce antagonist. Recent offerings like Daniel Silva's Moscow Rules, Ted Bell's Tsar, and my own Pipeline reassign Russia its place of concern for political leaders, intelligence agencies and military planners. It would be a pity for them to take all that away.

That Russia provides good book material is no surprise. The non-fiction Russia uses natural resources for coercion. It militarily overwhelms a small neighbor. Crushes domestic dissension through physical or psychological intimidation. It suffers from near-obsessive mistrust of foreigners' intentions. Oligarchs and Kremlin bureaucrats are locked in a maze of corruption, mafia and violence.

So, how does America reconcile this reality with its foreign policy needs? A new era of Glasnost across the Bering Strait is by no means assured with an autocratic state spinning into economic chaos. But there is no choice but to try.

As it considers its options with Russia, the new administration must wrestle with two potentially contradictory considerations. On the one hand, no matter how good the fodder for fiction, Washington must "reset" relations that have gone badly off track with this prominent nuclear-tipped, 11 time-zone behemoth. On the other hand, events in the financial and energy markets may have inadvertently exposed an uncomfortable quandary: Does the New Russia actually matter all that much?

As demand and prices for its commodities soared, Russia has gotten rich without making much of anything. When is the last time you bought something with a 'Made in Russia' label? No textiles. No computers. No cars of any worth. No refrigerators or washing machines. No services. Even Stolichnaya is now bottled in Latvia.

Depressed energy prices and weak demand means that petro-states have lost the saber they used to rattle. As the Kremlin's finances flounder, some see a possibility that Vladmir Putin could even lose his hold on power -- but not before Putin's Siloviki (security bureaucrats) apparatus fights tooth and nail to hang on to money and clout.

Worsening matters for Russia, western environmental and national security concerns are accelerating technologies that could reduce the west's dependence on hydrocarbons. When the United States announces a serious conservation policy that reduces fossil fuel consumption -- and with President Barack Obama this will happen -- Moscow could find its long term geostrategic position increasingly eroded.

Yet, notwithstanding its difficulties, let's remember that engaging Russia is better policy than the previous administration's pinballing between infatuation and thoughtless antagonism. Yes, Moscow hasn't exactly been a reliable ally. But as Professor Dimitri Simes says: "Nor has it acted like an enemy, much less an enemy with global ambitions and a hostile and messianic ideology."

It is clear now that the Bush administration's desire to place advanced warning missile defense systems so close to Russia's borders was a miscalculation. Similarly mistaken was the willy-nilly rhetoric of NATO expansion.

At a time of so many competing financial, military and political priorities, U.S. policy must first and foremost prevent Russia's return to the top of America's international worries. US policy needs breathing space to tackle priority number one: the growing arc of Mideast violence from the Mediterranean to the Hindu Kush.

Perhaps the place to start is to communicate a willingness to revisit missile defense. Iran's early February satellite launch may now have impeded the removal of the Polish-based anti-missile sites. But the United States can agree to provide Russia ongoing, verifiable reassurances that the systems will remain directed at "rogue states" and have nothing at all to do with Russia.

Given the regime in Moscow, this is a relationship fraught with difficulty. The United States needs to demand clear results: meaningful cooperation on the Iranian nuclear issue, anti-terrorism, non-proliferation and the spread of nuclear materials.

So far, signs are not encouraging. Russians convinced Kyrgyzstan to abrogate a U.S. airbase agreement vital to U.S operations in Afghanistan. Anti-Georgian rhetoric is rising furiously. The choking of press freedoms and internal dissent is accelerating.

Perhaps we authors will get to keep our novelistic foe? Let's hope not. The world would benefit greatly from our loss.

Comments

[WierdWookie]

Russia armed Iran, owns Afghanistan now and you want to do what?

[WierdWookie]

Here's some non-fiction for you. Everyone now knows Russia armed Iran. Russia is delivering humanitarian aid to afghanistan right past Nato's nose. So what is this conversation about?

[MilwaukeeDan]

"When was it last time you bought something with Made in Russia label?". I'm an American, living in the USA and I can't find anything made here. Unless you are buying weapons, aircraft or heavy machinery, it won't be made here.

[kujer]

"When the United States announces a serious conservation policy that reduces fossil fuel consumption -- and with President Barack Obama this will happen -- Moscow could find its long term geostrategic position increasingly eroded."
It`s used in polymers manufacture and so on. Anyway it is`nt very important for Russian because they do not trade organic fuel to US practically.
"Yes, Moscow hasn't exactly been a reliable ally"
Only the USA is the trustworthy ally. There is no direction change or behaviour reconsiderations in US foreign politic. Look at the history book.
"Nor has it acted like an enemy, much less an enemy with global ambitions and a hostile and messianic ideology."
Yes its US role.
"can agree to provide Russia ongoing, verifiable reassurances that the systems will remain directed at "rogue states" and have nothing at all to do with Russia."
? Have Russians some reasons to believe?
"The United States needs to demand clear results:..­."
As it is good that crisis has struck USA. Everybody has tired of constant requiremen­tsdemands.
Etc.

[oxi]

Only the U.S. is a trustworthy ally?

Let's see:

Warsaw Pact disbands, NATO continues to expand and grow in size to now include new bases in Afghanistan. NATO bombs Serbia on behalf of Islamic terrorists the KLA violating their treaty and the UN Charter which the NATO Treaty is placed under.

New ABM bases in eastern Europe and continued war games for an enemy that does not exist anymore. Georgia attacks Russian positions in S.O. starting a war that Georgia lost in a few days.

CAN YOU BLAME RUSSIA? Put yourself in their position and explain to me how would you respond?

[kujer]

So, it was the sarcasm only. I wished to remind that the USA quite often breaks the allied obligations.
But: CAN I BLAME RUSSIA? Yes. Who needs to be blamed ten years ago when was dangerous to be the russian ally and when you could be killed for yours russians nationality?

[kujer]

Boorish text.
"The non-fiction Russia uses natural resources for coercion."
Forces to pay and do not allow to steal?
"It militarily overwhelms"
`Small neighbor` of next american Samosa he has solved that Bush's the best friend and can force to move Russia by power of weapons. He was mistaken. So, Russian should swallow it.
"Crushes domestic dissension through physical or psychological intimidati­on."
It is an ancient mantra. During time, while in Russia lot of newspapers and the magazines criticising of the power constantly?
"It suffers from near-obsessive mistrust of foreigners' intentions­."
And actually all foreigners aspire jealously of Russia`s prosperity and do not think about the own interests. Patrons of art/science and altruists exclusively?
"Oligarchs and Kremlin bureaucrats are locked in a maze of corruption, mafia and violence."
If you have proofs - transfer them. Russian will tell to you Big Thanks.
"11 time-zone behemoth"
The author is not a diplomat that`s why he can say in this way. I`m not a diplomat too, but I will keep silence what I think about of the author. Parents brought up me.
"When is the last time you bought something with a 'Made in Russia' label?"
The USA do not trade with Russia essentially. Its not good. It agree.

[dparkins3]

A Kafkaesque article from Mr. Shecter. He is either living in a fantasy world or has done no research at all.

Regards to economy:
1. It is our(USA) economy that is spinning out of control. We have an nsolvent financial system and a goverement unable to pay its expenses. In contrast Russia's large banks are solvent and the goverment has 200 billion in reserves to plug any shortfalls.
2. Putin & Medvedev have an 80% approval rating. However, it is quite natural that fools holding positions on the boards of American NGOs and spewing absurd vitriol in a foreign language for a foreign audience are not well recieved.

3. Russia's economy.
within 7 years they will lead in
1. grain production (surpassing USA)
2. gas (already #1)
3 oil (alread # 1)
4 civil and military aviation( superjet 100 and MS-21)
5. nuclear reactors - established joint venture with Siemens to produce nuclear reactors.
6 largest auto producer in Europe - all majors have factories in Russia.

Tecnology. Steve Chase from Intel sums it up best

"We at Intel have a saying: Give the urgent projects to the Americans, big projects to the Indians, and the impossible ones to the Russians. The Russians can do anything" http://www.dataart.com/company/dataart/news20040722.htmm)

“They are extremely creative; they are imaginative; they are disciplined,” said Steve Chase, president of Intel Russia. “When it comes to solving mathematical algorithms, they are basically unbeatable­.” (53)
http://www.american.edu/initeb/sw5840a/workforce.htm

[jdw]

"Putin & Medvedev have an 80% approval rating."

That's easy to achieve when you abolish the free press.

I don't agree with everything Mr. Schechter is saying here (Russia is intractable and doesn't respond to anything but force), but he's a compelling read. I enjoyed his first book and am looking forward to this new one.

[zaz33]

oxi - i agree.

I'm finding it more and more difficult differentuating between fiction writers and " serious journalists.

[oxi]

Let's see:

War games by NATO in Scandanavia, the Baltics states, recently. More planned with off Bulgaria's coast and Romania. In May with Georgia, new military agreements with Kazikstan and Uzbekistan. More nuclear sub games in the Barents sea and possibly near the north pole. New ABM base possibly in Poland. Newest Patriot missiles to be stationed in Poland.

I could go on but this proves the "what's next" scenario with Russia is simple.

The U.S. and NATO do not care for peace and they are continuing to encircle Russia and threaten her existance with war games and more bases including new ones in Afghanistan.

It is not Russia that is the problem or threat. It is the U.S. and NATO that is the threat to peace and stability in the world right now!

[MilwaukeeDan]

oxi, great points. Maybe Mr. Schecter can tell us what the point of NATO is.

[MilwaukeeDan]

Hell, NATO even has a country called Kosovo, they invented it, created it and only a few world states beyond NATO recognize it.