It is an archetypal struggle in baseball: a fresh young pitcher with some heat comes up from the minors. When the team really needs a win in the last game of a hotly contested series, the coach puts the new player on the mound to get the last out. The game is on the line. The first batter up is no great slugger. He's a longtime player with a history of striking out as well as a decent on-base percentage. He's also got a knack for reading the pitcher, staying alive in the box long enough to see what he's up against, and maybe making the pitcher throw some risky stuff down the count. In baseball, as in politics, no one really knows how the at-bat will end, even with the track record of mistakes and triumphs, the numbers can sometimes lie. Now imagine that the team with the rookie pitcher is narrowly behind in the game and there are no outs, and the bases are loaded. So much the sports analogy, so far my prologue.
It is fitting that I am going to view the debate in a local sports bar, the Quarterback Pub in Bellingham, in the shadow of Western Washington University. Bellingham is a college town, surrounded by rural farmland, which has an unusual political makeup. The transient population of college students trends liberal, while the aging permanent residents tend to be more conservative. At 5PM, the Pub saw a non-hosted viewing of the 2008 Vice Presidential Debate between Senator Joseph Biden of Delaware, and Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.
It would be fair to say the crowd was overwhelmingly pro-Obama/Biden. There were no signs, but all of the conversations in the knots of people and at the tables and at the bar were about how progressives stood to win the election. Many were talking about Palin, and how here interviews went, and the Saturday Night Live sketch where Tina Fey used her exact words to get laughs.
The crowd of over 200 included members of the local Democratic Party organization, including the Chair, Natalie McClendon. Robin Ledbetter, co-coordinator of the Whatcom County Young democrats was also present. Zach Shelton, from Governor Chris Gregoire's campaign was working the crowd, handing out pro-Obama stickers and signing up volunteers. Stephanie Kontouros, Policy Coordinator for Mount Baker Planned Parenthood, was there with a group of members handing out fliers outlining John McCain's voting record on women's health issues.
The crowd was made up mostly of younger viewers, mostly white and mostly women. Most of those I questioned prior to the debate thought Biden would win, based on what they knew about the issues and based on Governor Palin's recent performances. John Davis, a therapist who has a degree in Political Science, said he thought the debate would not amount to much, that each side would have its "zingers", which would be cut into sound bites and played by media sources friendly to their cause. A woman named Piper said that her family was from Alaska and she thought that Palin would do well, and was probably a good governor, but would not be a good choice for Vice President.
As the debate began, the audience cheered many of the high points of Senator Biden's answers, especially when he said "Maverick, he is not!", and when he talked about supporting legislation to address violence towards women. There were no cheers and a number of groans when Governor Palin would repeat often-used talking points. When she winked at the camera they laughed. The worst moment for either candidate was when Governor Palin made reference to Senator Biden's wife, who was killed in a car accident along with their daughter. Governor Palin was smiling as she made the comment "Her reward is in heaven", and a number of viewers commented on that.
After the speech, I spoke again with John Davis, who said it went about as he thought it would, but that Biden won easily, and voters would see that. Matt Laninga thought that Palin did well at exploiting her own charm and good looks, but made no impression as a speaker. I asked Robin Ledbetter of the Young Democrats whether Palin had impacted her organization's recruitment efforts, she said that hadn't but that membership has been driven by a desire to see a positive change in government and to avoid having people like McCain and Palin in a position to lead the country. Most viewers thought Palin had been very well coached, but that Biden had more emotional connection with them, especially when he had difficulty talking about not knowing whether one of his sons would survive the car accident, and talked about being a single parent.
In baseball, the expectations game does not count for much; either the batter gets on base or is out. In the debate, the audience sometimes handicaps the players prior to the game. The umpire in the debate does not keep score; the audience counts the hits runs and errors and often the players do not know how the game went until film of the game has been replayed several times. We will know, soon enough how well the rookie made out against the game journeyman slugger, but the early indications say he got on base, while the losing team sees no reason to swap relief pitchers just yet.