Philip N. Howard

So instead of "predict" I should have said "anticipate." Social scientists are loathe to predict, and rightly so. Strong arguments come from good evidence and considered interpretation. Unfortunately, evidence from the future is in short supply. So at the recent International Studies Conference in San Diego, a key...

In the last few months, I've had fun dinners with three exes. Not all at the same time -- that would have been overwhelming. But ex-President George W. Bush, Peru's ex-President Alejandro Toledo, and Bolivia's ex-President Jorge Quiroga are all important public figures who are dealing with managing their status...

A couple of weeks ago I drafted a dictator's dead pool for 2012. The list identified 13 authoritarian rulers over 70 years old, and with the death of Kim Jong Il there are 12 guys left on the list. The reason I made such a list...

The world seems to have more aging dictators than ever before. It may seem crass to make a dictators' dead pool. But given the murderous history of some of strongmen who might be on the list, it is not unreasonable to think through the means and implications of their departure.

Between now and 2015, there will be some predictable crises in global politics. The most predictable political crises have become the moments in which dictators ask tech-savvy voters to participate in a rigged election. Social media allows people to call out big organized lies, so rigged elections have become sensitive...

Digitally enabled protesters in Tunisia tossed out their dictator. The protests in Egypt have drawn out the largest crowds in 50 years and the crisis in that country is not over. Several autocrats have had to dismiss their cabinets. Discontent has cascaded over transnational networks of family and friends to...

It looks like a typical election in Egypt. Barely a quarter of eligible voters turned out to cast a ballot. This is a country with an active civil society, but also one where the ruling party not only chooses its candidates for office, it chooses its opponents.

President Hosni Mubarak...