The Middle East sits at a precarious pivot point, a transformational moment that rivals the fall of the Berlin Wall. Country by country, whether they remain autocratic, become democratic or fall somewhere in between, the Middle East will not be the same.
From the individual street vendor who lit the spark in Tunisia to the massive protests in Tahrir Square to the current standoff with Muammar Gaddafi, none of this has been scripted and ultimate outcomes are far from certain. Eastern Europe benefited from the centripetal pull of NATO and the EU, and received immediate and sustained assistance from the United States and the West to order to achieve today's remarkable regional stability and integration.
The United States has less leverage to shape development in the Middle East going forward than we did in Eastern Europe. But we can certainly influence if not dictate favorable outcomes -- provided we are as fully engaged as we were during the 1990s and have adequate and timely resources available to help the region advance.
Countries in the Middle East will certainly need a lot of help to achieve the genuine political, economic and social reform that the region desperately needs, change that certainly benefits the United States.
Some support will continue to be needed right now -- humanitarian assistance to help refugees displaced by violence or religious or ethnic minorities who are victimized by unrest; technical assistance to help countries build political parties, rewrite constitutions or organize internationally monitored free and fair elections; security assistance to professionalize military and police forces to protect rather than suppress civilians; and economic assistance to create genuine free markets and create jobs, one of the primary frustration that fueled the youth-led unrest in the first place.
While military support may be selectively employed, as with Libya, the primary focus of our efforts will be civilian, making strategic investments to encourage change from Algeria to Yemen.
But where decisive and timely action can be critical in such a fluid and unpredictable period, the federal government, solely responsible for execution of the foreign policy of the United States, may shut down because of the FY2011 budget impasse. Even if paralysis is somehow averted, the needed resources may not be available if the final budget resolution resembles the framework advanced by the House of Representatives under HR-1.
A government shutdown would essentially halt our ability to direct resources to meet compelling needs as we have done multiple times over the past four months -- none of it planned -- all of it important. For days or weeks, programs considered mission essential will continue to operate, but at reduced levels; a fraction of the workforce will be on the job, and not paid; money already out the door can be spent; but no new commitments can be made until there is a budget.
A budget deal that includes steep reductions in operating funds or assistance that support our global diplomacy and development efforts risks gutting several programs that are relevant to the on-going crisis in the Middle East -- right now. HR-1 calls for severe cuts in humanitarian and economic support funding, for example, the very programs that have already proven their importance in Egypt and Libya.
Budget hawks and Tea Partiers want to push to budget levels back to 2008. But the problem is, we live in 2011. The world has changed.
In North Africa, beyond Libya, Southern Sudan will emerge as a new country in less than four months. It will need a lot of help for a long time. Even though the Middle East peace process is barely alive, institution building in the Palestinian territories and Lebanon remain vital to achieving comprehensive Middle East peace. There are expanding civilian requirements in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan that are fundamentally different than 2008. The same kind of sustained focus we required to remove Gaddafi from power is needed in the Ivory Coast, where another stubborn dictator refuses to step aside even as the humanitarian situation in and around the country worsens.
The bottom line: at a crucial moment in history, the world's only superpower, the most influential country in this region vital to our national security will play with one if not both hands tied behinds its back. Until there is a budget agreement, there is no new money to commit. Depending on the level of cuts in the eventual budget agreement, when decisive action may be needed the most, there may not be enough funding in critical accounts to make a meaningful difference, and little flexibility to reprogram money from other sources.
The transfer of responsibility to NATO this week for the no-fly and no-drive zones that have leveled the playing field in Libya is serendipitous. At least NATO will continue to operate even as its most important member threatens to drive off a political cliff.
Can you be a superpower without a functioning government? Unfortunately, we may be about to find out.
P.J. Crowley is a former Assistant Secretary and Spokesman for the Department of State.
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Popular misconception. We are not going to be without a large and organized Government even if the ultra right in our country have their way. The T-Party is foolish and short sighted. We will have merely substituted an imposed Government for and by the multinational (or Post National) corporations for that of a representative one for and by the people.The big difference is that we will have become a colony rather than a Nation.
In fact, Islam is mutually exclusive with Democracy. In Islam, women are denigrated. They have lashings, stonings, female mutilations, arranged pubescent marriages, and even honor killings. In countries like Saudi Arabia, women cannot even be present with an unrelated male unless they are with a male relative. In a Democracy, women are treated equally under the law. In Islam, a man is allowed 4 wives and a mistress.
A Democracy has freedom of the speech, press and religion. Islam tolerates none of these. Try just drawing a cartoon of muhammed and you will have a Fatwa issued against you (death sentence). In Saudi, only a muslim can be a citizen or even visit Mecca.
Thank goodness, he is gone. He contributed virtually nothing but uncertainty to an almost non-existent foreign policy.
The last time there was significant movement towards democracy in the middle east, after WW2, we quashed it to protect our oil interests--as in when we had the CIA back the coup that killed the nascent Iran democracy to install the Shah of Iran.
You mean neither autocrats nor extremists tolerate dissent. That doesn't hinge on Islam.
Obama could have stuck closer to what makes sense. The timing, the wave of change taking place, the international coalition's willingness, Gaddafi's threats. He did not have to go off into the land of bullshit "the US is different" and "we never turn a blind eye to humanitarian crisis" Thisi s absolute and I very seldom say "absolute" bull. During his administration Obama, Clinton turned a "blind eye" to the "massacre...slaughter" (using their words) in the Gaza. Basically they gave the Israeli's their blessings for that "massacre" Drones killing innnocents.
Now while Obama had nothing to do with that massive pile of dead bodies over in Iraq that no one likes to count or really talk about Hillary Clinton and all of those who voted for that 2002 Iraq war resolution are partially responsible for that "massacre"(lets just use their words). We all know that Bush, Wolfowitz, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Feith far more responsible but too many Dems went along.
Obama did not have to attempt to build that flimsy myth about the US
Even Sen. Kerry who married great wealth is calling for US corporations to create jobs for tens of millions of Egyptians who rioted in Egypt recently. Of course these corporarions would be paying us no taxes and tens of millions of Americans will remain out of work.
Why is that?
Dictators untimately take orders. We use them and lose them when we are done with them and they become rogue. But fifty years or so of robbing one's own people is a good run for a dictator. That's a nice time to silence the dictator also.
Humanitarian aid? A paltry bit of the money we sent to the dictators, autocrats and monarchs. Well over 75% of the money was used by those leaders to suppress and oppress their own people and build up their private coffers. Now our government has decided that humanitarian aid is needed? Only after the uprisings of the ME and Africa. Might be just a little too late to switch horses in the middle of the stream. The protestors are not stupid - they know who has been supporting the dictators, autocrats and monarchs in the name of "security" and "stability" in those regions.
As ricky Ricardo would say "You got a lot of 'splainin' to do".
Either he is being a true American... out of touch with reality, or he knows something the rest of us dont know.
Americans are utterly unaware of how completely distrusted their country is, by the rest of the world, and particularly in the arab world. To dictate favourable outcomes, America first has to change the way it behaves and thinks.
American mideast policy is dictated by oil and Israel. Thats why the "leader of the free world" had no qualms propping up evil despots, and allowing the "gods chosen people" to run amok.
The arabs see through America. Money cant buy you love. Ask the afghan mujahideen.
Americans are so used to believing what they want to, it blinds them to reality.... and dont forget, guests in the arab world.. even the ones they dislike... are treated politely.
like a bully on the street it feels good to be the king.
but like all kings and bully's sooner or later the end comes and it aint pretty when it does.
look around this is rome but we did a rome thing in 60 years.
our gov is no longer functional. it is owned by corp america.
yet americans line up to vote in their illusion their votes counts.
corp america would have it no other way. keep them thinking their votes count for something.
Yeah & our debt has grown. Sorry bud, we need to get our financial house in shape, before interfering in every corner of the World.