Will Israel attack Iran on a large operational scale? The debate has once again come center stage thanks to what is perceived in Israel as a lack of a clear message emanating from Washington. The plain message Israeli leaders seek is whether or not Washington has actual intentions behind its own hyperbole to stop Iran's march to nuclear weapons capability. Israeli interlocutors have made it known they would rather not act on their own. But if her leadership perceives that the international community, and the United States in particular, IS NOT going to take real action to stop Iran's quest, Israel will act in her own interests for two main reasons. First, concluding they have been left with no other choice. Second, due to influences and internalization of her unique set of "human cultural factors".
Understanding and assessing human cultural factors is important for US policy makers and intelligence community. In my first hand experience, they are often not weighted properly by intelligence analysts. Too much focus is placed on the objective technical aspects; the order of battle or various strike scenarios. While necessary, these don't paint a full picture.
What do I mean by human cultural factors and how do I assess them?
First, there is the influence of historical precedent. Israel's two previous unilateral attempts against Iraq and Syria, nuances aside, worked out in her favor.
Second, is the character of the key relevant political personalities involved. There could not be a more challenging lineup of political egos in Israel's national body politic than at present. Prime Minister Netanyahu's interests lie in sealing his place in Israel's history books. If he cannot do this via the vaunted Peace Process, like the majority of his predecessors have sought, then being remembered for launching one of the boldest and likely most controversial pre-emptive strikes in Israel's history is the next best thing. Minister of Defense Barak, once clearly singled out for his military achievements but reduced in stature for his overwhelming political failures, is in the same vein. Last, but not least is Foreign Minister Lieberman, whose cold and unemotional Russian based calculations and demonstrated passion to disdain logical analysis of actions and reactions make his predilection clear.
Third, are the relevant military personalities, primarily the position of the IDF Chief of General Staff, held by Lieutenant General Benny Gantz. Gantz also has a distinguished military history but disdains the need for its revelation. In Gantz's view, he performed his duties as a soldier and went off into the sunset after serving as Chief of Israel's Ground Forces. Unexpectedly back in uniform, Gantz's ego is in check, a welcomed counterweight to his political leadership. But Gantz is also the son of holocaust survivors. As such, Ahmadinejad's inflammatory rhetoric and distortion of history have likely burned themselves on Gantz's conscience. In his position, he does not have the priority of considering historic political outcomes, only the very tangible defense of not only Israel's citizens, but world Jewry as well. The weight of these demands coupled with continued Iranian unyieldingness should not be underestimated.
Finally, are the influences of contemporary Israeli military culture and history. There is no higher honor bestowed to an Israeli than the term "warrior." In modern times, the leading case in point of this personal character trait is Ariel Sharon. His exploits are legendary in civilian and military institutions alike. It is hard to find a past or serving military official who does not want to join Sharon on this pedestal. Moreover, Israeli academies of all disciplines embed the heroic principles and actions of their founding fathers noting the 1948 war of Independence; the IDF's surprise 1967 air campaign and routing of multiple Arab armies; the IDF's 1973 crossing of the Suez Canal; the 1976 Entebbe raid; and the 1981 raid against Iraq's nuclear reactor. But it has been a long time since Israel achieved something along these same heights. The 1982 Lebanon invasion; both Intifadas; the 2006 War against Hezbollah; and the 2009 assault into Gaza do not conjure equal historical billing. Many Israelis think it is long overdue to add another bold exploit to their historical archive. I deem it the lure of "historical footsteps".
In fairness to Israel's political leadership and their own egos aside, neither Israel's political nor military leadership can afford to ignore the interplay of the egos of their Iranian counterparts combined with their continued actions. Israel conducted pre-emptive strikes in 1956 and 1967 in view of her neighbors armament buildup coupled with the fomenting of Arab nationalism calling for Israel's destruction. Even more instructive, however, is in the fall of 1973 Israel did not act in the face of information and indicators that an attack was imminent. The ghosts of this indecision remain front and center in Israeli psyche today.
In sum, the debate above is instructive in its own right. But it is clearly in US interests to be more cognizant of the complex human cultural factors regarding Israeli decision making processes that are not as apparent in traditional intelligence channels as assessments of Israeli military force structure, operational readiness and technical capabilities. Our foreign policy and intelligence community should not limit analysis to Israel's decision-making processes via an objectively rational calculus. It is more that the rationality used will be bounded and influenced by key human factors, some objectively rational, but others tied more to personal ego, culture, tradition, and local historical influences.
>>Israel lost that one.
and the 2009 assault into Gaza
>>Israeli massacre on unarmed civilian population is really brave. Yes bombing palestinians from the air and destroyed gaza's infrastructure is really brave.
do not conjure equal historical billing. Many Israelis think it is long overdue to add another bold exploit to their historical archive. I deem it the lure of "historical footsteps".
>>Sure go ahead bomb Iran and then the US will be pulled in to back Israel up like in 73 conflict.
Israel loves to pick on its neighbours then wondering why they hate Israel so much. Imperialism and beligerance only goes so far before there's blowback.
If it is all down to egos, why has Israel waited so long? - waited for Iran to place most of its enrichment facilities inside a mountain?
Ego has nothing to do with it. The calculus is whether Israel should wait for the mad mullahs to determine to right time to carry out its repeated threat to annihilate Israel.
And the Arab world is also terrified at the prospect of an Iran with nuclear weapons.
"Saudi king urged U.S. to attack Iran"
"Cut off the head of the snake," the Saudi ambassador to Washington, Adel al-Jubeir, quotes the king as saying during a meeting with General David Petraeus in April 2008.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/11/29/us-wikileaks-usa-idUSTRE6AP06Z20101129
israels days on the top table in the Middle East is behind it. Good riddance.
1) There is no resemblance between taking out one overt facility and a large array of underground facilities.
2) I do not believe there is anyone that wishes to get to the point where we must act. This is too grave and too crucial for anyone to consider personal political gain.
3) General Gantz's opinion is NOT relevant. He is asked: "can you do it". And I think we all know the answer.
4) I am a warrior myself. It's a great honor. But we all aspire to live in peace with our neighbors and NOT to "add another bold exploit"". We would give up this honor in a heartbeat.
I agree with the lessons of the Holocaust. We must believe the President of Iran when he says he plans to eradicate Israel and we know he is acquiring the means to do so. I also concur that Israeli psyche is influenced by the lessons of the Yom Kipur War.
Not one Israeli believes we can strike on Iran and "win". We know it will NOT result in a peaceful Middle East. We know that the day after will not bring rejoicing like after Entebbe or Osirak.
We DO NOT want to do this.
If we DO act, it will be for one reason only: the conclusion that we have been left with no other choice.
Maybe not. The oil-producing nations have to sell it to someone. The US would be in a stronger position if it were to protect its ability to pay a good price for oil, rather than worrying about who is selling it. All of the Arab nations and Iran have huge problems with nascent democracy -- let them figure it out for themselves.
Both are gunning for regime-change for regional domination, not defense.
It's interesting to me that the arc of Israel's self perceived iconic military feats go from large scale operations of '48, '56, '67 and '73, in which the whole was nation fully mobilized and often personally involved in combat, to the raids of Entebbe and Orsiak, carried out by small numbers of specialists. Citizen war to something more like single hero combat of ancient times. Equally important, a shift from wars of immediate existential impact to raids of mostly psychological impact (Entebbe) or raids with (arguably) long term strategic effects like Osirak. All the rather asymmetric actions from '82 on have lacked a full measure of either daring or full measure of national commitment.
Iran and Israel share no common border, so any military strike against Iran is going to score well in the daring category. However, if Iran has the means to retaliate by proxy with missiles over the Lebanese border, Israel may find itself in another asymmetrical conflict, this time with more civilian participation than the last rocket war and no lasting strategic gains.
If they don't want to be our proxy state, let them do without the uncounted billions we provide for them for their defense. Then they can act with impunity and irresponsiblity.
Apparently you are the only source of this confidential information.
Nobody has informed you that the roles has changed and now the tail is in control of the dog!
But there's absolutely no reason that the US should get involved in this harangue.
American people would just like to let the dust settle and have a little peace and quiet while they try to salvage what they can of their lives.
If you are just waking up to Israel as a nuclear power, you haven't been paying much attention.