As a long-term practitioner in the Middle East, I read with interest the opinion piece "No Countries for Old Men" (5 Aug, ForeignPolicy.com) posted by my close friend and former brother in arms, Steve White. Recently, due to my Middle East experience, I was invited to attend several forums and view close-up and in person the attitudes and interests of some of the "Old Men" Steve so tellingly warned about; those in part responsible for the roadblocks we face in making concerted progress in Israel-Palestine.
The "Old Men" (age not being the actual distinction and thankfully offset by some younger views), were senior representatives from U.S. policy-making circles both in and out of government. Discussions focused on how to avoid the coming policy train wreck of the September UN vote recognizing a Palestinian State. To my amazement, the majority of the discussion focused on old school diplomatic maneuvering techniques to avoid an unwanted but inevitable showdown. The verbal posturing was wholly reactive -- highlighting a lack of control of the situation and I found it dizzying just trying to keep up. I wondered when the subject would turn to the more important aspect the affect the current stalemate and September vote would have on attitudes and actions on the ground, and vice versa. I offered to no one in particular that if we spent as much intellectual energy on figuring out how things could be done ON the ground as we did debating among ourselves in Washington and the UN, the whole September affair might not have occurred. Having recently returned from the region, I didn't want to offend anyone's sensitivities by offering there really need not be so much intellectual "Debka" (A classic Middle Eastern cultural dance where everyone joins hands and goes around continuously in a big circle) spent on the subject. My take is the vote is a non-event in the region for the following reasons.
From the Israeli perspective, only the political elite are paying attention and wondering, like their U.S. and European counterparts, how they ever got into the current situation in the first place. On the streets and in the homes, however, the lack of interest in things termed "Peace Process" and what is going on beyond the Security Fence is witnessed by the rhetoric of the current social upheaval. Israeli's are enjoying unprecedented relief from their Palestinian dilemma due to the combined factors of Israel's security wall; the unrelenting efforts of the IDF; the newly trained Palestinian Security forces; and the unheralded successes of the United States Security Coordinator (USSC). At dinner, one CAN converse and engage on intra-Israeli and Arab matters, but NOT Palestinian.
From the Palestinian perspective, the factors are a bit more vigorous for disinterest. First and foremost, Palestinians have lost trust and faith in both their traditional Palestinian organizations and current political leadership. The current showdown is viewed as little more than another maneuver for the sake of few, much like the recent reconciliation agreement. Second, the Palestinian Authority, in part due to the continuing occupation, is not ready for real statehood and all its accoutrements. One signal is the current need to depend on Israel and the international community for cash to pay government and security force salaries, which will continue right up to the vote. Third, Palestinians are tired and fatigued from constant conflict and things that drive them. Palestinians know they cannot afford nor are willing to prepare for another intifada. The results of the second Intifada are a clear indication that violence will not lead to anything positive. It is time for a semblance of normal life, the occupation not ignored but aside, with the current local economic revival as proof positive. For their part, the newly trained Palestinian security forces have let it be known their orders are for business as usual. Their training and development continues apace and they feel they are more professionally prepared to handle events such as large-scale demonstrations better than in the past - namely due to the efforts of the USSC.
Taken together then, it is very probable the September vote, despite calls from jailed Palestinian leader Marwan Barghouti (a sign that Palestinians are yearning for charismatic leadership), will fall along the lines of the adage, "suppose they gave a vote and no one cared." That said, a stalemate in the political arena coupled with apathy on the ground does not mean there are not concrete steps to be sustained or fostered while Washington Debkas.
The most important is to sustain and enhance the role of the interlocutor that has earned the trust and respect of both parties over the last several years while diplomatic efforts foundered; the office of the United States Security Coordinator. Recently some have intoned that the USSC is now on "auto-pilot" concentrating on traditional training and equipping, remaining out of sight of the rough and tumble Peace Process. Nothing could be more unwise given the current impasse in Washington and in the region. The USSC's active contribution over the last five years with Israelis and Palestinians to foster and expand bilateral security activities to levels unseen since 2000 required an effective posture far beyond the scope of a traditional military mission. Why curtail the one element that is fostering positive momentum between the parties? By re-focusing on a conventional role, the intrinsic value of the USSC is being wholly ignored at a time when it could be most valuable.
It is unknown if this is via careful design or by usurpation of a handful of fearful diplomats. Regardless, it is not the right time to resort into traditional roles, particularly given the fact time-honored diplomacy has not been successful for years. The U.S. is not in charge of the situation; it is reacting to events and simply along for the ride. This is clearly not in our national interests. As such, it is time to for U.S. leadership to exploit the only avenue of success it has enjoyed in decades and engage to shape events, not react to them. The office of the United States Security Coordinator is best suited to fill the current political vacuum. Then Washington can continue to Debka all it wants.
Be well!