The recent devastating earthquake in Iran has brought the issue of the U.S.-EU sanctions on Iran back to the forefront, where a renewed discussion of the aim and impact of those sanctions is sorely needed.
On August 11, 2012, twin earthquakes in Iran's northwest region ravaged villages, claimed the lives of over 300 people, and left thousands more injured and homeless. In theory, American sanctions on Iran, which are designed to forestall Iran's nuclear program, made it illegal for American NGOs to join the relief effort by sending aid.
A coalition of U.S.-based organizations successfully petitioned the Obama Administration and gained a temporary general license to send aid. The wider problem of the sanctions and their impact on civil society, however, persists.
The sanctions aim to make it too costly for the Iranian government to continue its nuclear program. The nuclear program, the Iranians claim, is for civilian purposes only which, if true, is legally afforded to them under the Non-Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
The sanctions, however, have not stopped nor slowed down Iran's drive to acquire nuclear technology. In reality, the Iranian populace has borne the brunt of the sanctions which has slowed down their drive to put pressure on the government from below.
Earlier this month, the Wall Street Journal published an important piece that highlighted the crippling impact of the sanctions on Iranian private businesses that are completely disconnected from the government and the nuclear program. These are the peers of the cherished American "job creators" that both President Obama and Mitt Romney champion in this year's U.S. presidential elections. In Iran, however, the sanctions are crippling private business, increasing the unemployment rate and intensifying inflation, all of which jeopardize the economic livelihoods of thousands of ordinary Iranians.
This was not entirely unpredictable. A quick glance at Iran's neighbor to the west, Iraq, and critical and instructive parallels can be drawn. After Iraq invaded Kuwait in August, 1990, the U.N.-imposed and U.S.-enforced sanctions brought Iraq's economy and its population to their knees. Iraq's middle class, which was historically known for serving as the country's incubator of secularism, was decimated. Middle class Iraqis who could afford to leave the country did so in droves and the ones who opted to stay became impoverished. As the middle class in Iraq became marginalized, so did any chance of a viable homegrown movement to pressure the government from below. Indeed, it is thought that the middle class is historically the harbinger of change as the poor, generally, are too impoverished to agitate for change and the rich are too inclined to defend the status quo as it benefits them.
Thus, as the sanctions wreaked havoc on the lives of ordinary Iraqis, thereby preventing the emergence of a viable homegrown movement to exert any pressure from below, Saddam Hussein's regime remained entrenched throughout the 13-year sanctions period. Furthermore, despite the ruinous sanctions, the U.S. and UK administrations believed him to be in the process of developing an elaborate nuclear and chemical weapons program. This was the now infamous "smoking gun" argument given by then-President Bush and then-Premier Blair that justified an Anglo-American invasion force that brought the autocracy crumbling down.
The Iraqi case study illustrates that the ill-fated sanctions imposed on Iran are not without precedent. That is not to say that the U.S. and its allies should abandon the sanctions strategy regarding Iran in favor of an Iraqi-style solution by using the military option. On the contrary, an attack on Iran, a country far larger than Iraq both in terms of geography and population and far more advanced in terms of military preparedness, would ensure a bigger disaster than the monumental catastrophe and extraordinary trauma of the Iraq War.
As in neighboring Iraq, the ever-expanding sanctions on Iran are disempowering the very people capable of pushing for a change at the top -- the middle class. The once thriving opposition Green Movement, which burst onto the political scene with an unforgettable fervor in the aftermath of the disputed 2009 presidential elections, is now reeling from both government repression from above and joint U.S.-EU sanctions from below. Yet, their fate need not be set in stone.
As Iranians suffer "the collateral damage" of a short-sighted and historically flawed policy, the victims of Iran's earthquake bring the specter of the sanctions to the fore, affording U.S. and EU leaders an opportunity to review their sanctions policy vis-à-vis those affected by them the most, the Iranian people, and decide a more humane path ahead. The Iranian people, the very people that can put real and lasting pressure on their government, are counting on such a change.
Pouya Alimagham is a PhD candidate at the University of Michigan's history program. You can follow him at @iPouya.
Iran is a threat because it needs more oil than it has. The regime relies on oil revenue to buy off its people but that price tag was rising long before sanctions. Iran cripples its own economy because of ideology that, for example, rules out significant participation of women.
Iran is a threat to the region's oil resources. Iran invaded and occupied the Fakka oil fields in Iraq in 2009. Iran has Quds forces all over the ME with an eye to acquiring control in oil-rich Sunni regions and over the Israel/Cyprus natural gas project in the Mediterranean. That's why Iran needs control of Syria en route to Lebanon which it controls through Hezbollah.
Iran is a threat without nuclear weapons; with them it would become a clear and present danger.
If sanctions aren't working -- and they are not -- more extreme measures are needed.
Going back to Iran/Iraq war we see clearly that Iranians were able to stand against China, Russia, West and Arab countries all by their own. Iran was under sanction, and while the whole world were helping Saddam with information, weapons, money, the only country that provided Iran with limited assistance was Syria.
During the war, not only it was shortage of everything from food, clothing, home appliances, Tehran was bombed with Chinese and Russian made bombs and missile almost daily. Saddam even had used chemical weapons against Iranians.
One should understand that the situation during the war was ten times worse than current situation. Still the Iranians were rejecting Saddam’s countless offers to negotiate and wanted to finish him at any cost.
The opposition has seen how Iranians gathered around the flag. Nobody could not criticise even tactical decisions during the war.
Fast forward to today, opposition in Iran is in much better shape and the economy is not as bad as during the war.
Anybody that understands the recent history of Iran and knows how Iranians react to external pressure, will advise West to stop the sanctions and negotiate with Iran instead.
If West continues on the same path, Iran will be an independent regional superpower within five years and Iranians will develop a deep hatred toward West, which will cost dearly to both Iran and West.
For Trita Parsi to take credit for any of this is typical of Trita. Where is his criticism of the regime for it's lack of response????? NOWHERE. That too is typical of Trita... always blame the other guy and never the regime. President Obama offered aid to Iran and was rebuffed. UNTIL the Iranian people demanded action. President Ahmadinejad left less than 2 days after the earthquake to visit SA.
How could Iran possibly need money from foreigners when the regime holds billions and billions of dollars in private bank accounts throughout the world.
But here we go with the conspiracy theories again. It's always Israel... never the regime.
Sanctions on Iran are weakening Ayatollah's regime.
Sounds great,
Sanctions will not topple Iranian theocracy but they will seriously undermine Iranian economic, political and military capacity.
Sounds great.
"Arabs masses revolt when their stomachs are empty. Persians revolt when their stomachs are full."
As long as Iranians are busy looking for their next meal, they will not revolt against their government. Lift these stupid sanctions against Iranians. Only apply sanctions that hurt their illegal regime that they had no say in brining it to power. Iranians have been paying for their mistake for 30 years.
Cuba is still under sanction unilaterally by US without any result to speak of as far as US interests are concern!
China was under sanctions and some products are still are (military technologies) and yet since normalization of relation between two countries, China and her economy is the best thing that happening to US interests in recent decades!
World might be able to live without sugar from Cuba or consumer goods from China, nevertheless they can't live without crude oil which is becoming scarce as time goes by, normalize relation between US and Iran before a catastrophic event force American and Iranian people in to becoming permanent advisories by way of losing their children lives in masses by either sanctions or wars, peace!
http://www.iranian.com/main/2010/sep/soraya-sepahpour-ulrich