"This Planet Is Screaming For Change, Morrison...": Iranian Rage As Bait For US Engagement.

"Come on baby won't you show me what you got, yeah; I want your salvation, whoa." - Rancid, 1994

Wha, wa, wait...what just happened?!?

One second there were faces of smiling, enthusiastic kids in the streets wearing green scarves and Chachi Arcola-style leg bandanas for CNN and the BBC ... next second there's Paris-circa-'68-style rioting in the streets, government crack-downs, thug-police beat downs, and a house arrest issued upon the contending (and conspicuously robbed) opposition candidate?!? What hackneyed non-union government-funded scribe is writing the script over there?

All of a sudden, it can't be ignored in favor of other pressing news like Shia LaBeouf's admitted pot use-cum-parental coitus voyeurism. Or Miss California's tissy fit over being sacked. Or even North Korea's wider fit over being ignored on the world stage despite its bizarre homicidal/suicidal tendencies. Or a domestic economy that's increasingly making the early 1930s look like the commodities rallying scene near the end of the movie Trading Places.

No, all eyes are on Iran, and for good reason, considering that it is the single most important foreign policy challenge facing the Obama administration.

At this point, were anyone to doubt that this most recent presidential election result in Iran was fixed would be tantamount to, well, thinking that the 2000 US presidential election was impartially interceded by the US Supreme Court. A two-thirds margin win in favor of a man that most metropolitan citizens in Iran liken to a national boil implant? Really? Were they counting the rural votes thrice? Or just misplacing certain urban ballot boxes in the backs of sanitation trucks? I'm sure the Diebolds of the world are salivating at the thought of lifted economic sanctions just so they could consult on procedural discretions and other subtleties of running "efficient" elections over there.

There could be a wider geopolitical angle to the reasons for said election results that no one is bothering to discuss. During Ahmadinejad's tenure, a great deal of business had been done with nations that value Iran for its natural resources, anti-Western stance and compliance with non-NATO security imperatives in Central Asia, the Caucasus, Caspian region, Persian Gulf and South Asia. Foremost amongst these powers are, of course, Russia and China, who each carry tens of billions of dollars worth of energy, defense and infrastructure development deals with Teheran. Ahmadinejad has been their happy yes man for many of these deals, and a change in presidential leadership towards someone with any hint of potentially more Western receptivity would be deemed as politically intolerable by these states.

I.E. When the French energy firm Total pulled out of Iran last year due to US pressure, the CEO of Russia's Gazprom met immediately with a gleeful and obliging Ahmadinejad, offering to take over those projects in the South Pars gas fields. Also, in addition to personally being present for state-corporate deals signed by Chinese firms for work in Iran, Ahmadinejad enthusiastically secured further sweeping bilateral cooperation with President Hu Jintao last fall in Beijing. The ruling classes in Iran collectively admire the Russians and Chinese - economically, strategically and militarily -- like Chris Makepeace's character did Adam Baldwin's in the 1980 classic coming-of-age movie, My Bodyguard (with all the intended entendre said movie title is meant to inject into this modern geopolitical charade in Asia).

Ahmadinejad has not only been the face of defiance and rage against the US and her allies, but has also served as the cultural, political and economic ambassador of Iran to nations as seemingly disparate as Russia/China, Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, the former Soviet states in Central Asia and many of the so-called non-aligned nations that seek a multi-polar alternative to predominant American hegemony. Like Hugo Chavez, he is yet another mobilizing face of a global movement -- however dilapidated -- aimed at shifting further away from the Washington Consensus.

Sure, that's not to say that the ruling theocrats in Iran had a phone in one hand with their vote fixers yesterday, and another phone to Moscow and Beijing, busily jotting down notes. Nor that, were Ahmadinejad's main opponent, Mir-Hossein Mousavi, to have "won," that Iran would all of a sudden run into the arms of the US and UK by changing its state rhetoric and policies overnight.

But economics often tend to dictate politics, and Iran is a critical economic actor on the world stage -- for both its friends and enemies. Plus, Iran's opacity in its internal affairs makes the US Federal Reserve's seem like a local PTA meeting's deliberations over school supply costs. It would be difficult for the informed to exclude the tactical considerations of Teheran's theocrats vis-a-vis vital global actors who a) have had a good run with Ahmadinejad so far and, b) tend to favor continuity with their perceived client states.

Great, so what should Washington do during these uncertain times in Iran? Answer: Proceed full throttle with diplomatic and economic offers towards Tehran, despite the recent election results. Offer to lift trade sanctions within vital industries, discuss security guarantees, promise cultural exchanges, and stand firm on a platform of rapprochement.

Ridiculous sounding? OK. You see what's happening in the streets of Iran's larger cities? Imagine how much more confused the councils of so-called experts and their racketeering commercial interests will become over there after further conciliatory gestures from Washington, which would in turn stoke more anticipatory fervor amongst the fed up, hungry-for-economic-change citizenry (who number in the millions). Also, consider the raised eyebrows in Moscow, Beijing, Islamabad, Kabul, Dushanbe, Ashgabat, Bishkek, Caracas, Sucre/La Paz, Quito and the Levant as the US steps out of a tired, predictably antagonistic character in favor of a mobilized, unprecedented and definitively bold diplomatic effort to strip Iran away from their clique.

There would be no need for clandestine operations, pay-offs to fringe groups in Iran's peripheries (Balochistan, Khuzestan, the Azeri regions, etc.), or continued threats towards Iran. The momentum now is clearly in favor of assisting a beleaguered, sophisticated class of young, educated, ambitious, mobilized and networked Iranian class who are boiling over with a textbook example of an outright rage against the machine.

This is the same wide contingency that a) mostly voted for Ahmadinejad's rivals, b) are now filling the streets, c) adore Barack Obama and have since he entered the public's consciousness, d) also filled the streets right after 9-11 with lit candles and mass sympathies, and e) would jump at the chance to work with US firms, capital and expertise in rebuilding their rusting nation.

They are also the same folks who are now wantonly ignored -- if not held in outright contempt -- by their so-called government.

Let's not just speak from the sidelines. Let's act boldly for the sake of a future that sees mutually beneficial interests between our two nations.

Comments

[Charlotte Safavi - Huffpost Blogger]

Intersting read...jam­-packed with ideas! Thanks.

[adamnb]

I don't mean to demean the opinion of those outraged over the vote and the treatment of street demonstrators, but the fact is the election if over, and there's damn little we can do about it. Thirty years of sanctions has not put a dent in Iran's resolve. More of the same won't work. And with the US and its major allies deep in recession, the U.S. military deeply overstretched, it's not likely we are going to take on Iran's protectors, China and Russia, anymore than we're going to take them on over North Korea. Pye points out one possible direction, of economic revitalization of Iran's energy industry using western energy technology. But there are other areas of common interest, including the long animosity between Shiite Iran and Sunni Taliban. These are still possible in spite of conservative theocrat win whether rigged or not.

[audadvnc]

The USA has been the bully on the block continuously in the past 30 years with respect to the Mideast in general, and Iran in particular. Why should they pay any attention to noise coming from Washington this week?

[Pye Ian - Huffpost Blogger]

audadvnc, Iran may publicly denounce the US, but watches us very closely, and wouldn't be against reestablished ties, as long as security measures are enforced. Iran wants the US to treat her like India.

Plus, Iranians favor other markets to export natural resources to in exchange for the best goods and services. Aside from all the political rhetoric, economic needs are still economic needs....

[zaz33]

Well. the more I read the more my blood pressure returned to normal

I don't agree that left leaning governments should remain the natural enemy of capitalist America. We havn't set a very good example. (capitalists are the only ones that cherish and benefit from unregulated capitalist economys)

However I've been argueing for some time that many of our business interest have been harmed by our militeristic and overbearing policies. The fact that our oil companies (with the possible exception of Hunt oil) cannot do business in Iraq is a good example. The same would happen if we or Israel attacked Iran

Europe, China, Russia and others are eating our lunch around the world by by doing business with diplomacy and a fountain pen

I support our corporations doing business around the world especially if it means jobs for Americans. But lets keep the MIC and CIA on the sidelines.

Hopefully the days of "this is the way it's gonna be" will be put behind us...

[Pye Ian - Huffpost Blogger]

Thanks zaz33.

The Russians and Chinese are as -- if not often more -- bareknuckled about their domestic, regional and geostrategic energy interests than we are, and terms like "Leftist" or "Capitalist" do not apply the same way in the energy game. It is an outright fistfight.

I know people in the Iranian energy sector who'd love to see US and European energy firms return, due to sheer technical superiority over what other nations are offering or have set up in Iran.

Washington's policy must change to get us there, though...a­nd I sense it already is...

[adamnb]

I agree that normalization of relations should be the goal of the U.S. towards Iran, but that policy has hit a big bump with the rigged election. We're in a holding pattern now. The US conservatives have always wanted regime change in Iran and are using the election as press fodder to derail any major change of policy. Also, as you well know, Iran is not the only prospective alternative energy supplier for Europe that can give Russia a run for its money. There's also Iraq that could easily double production in a short time and be a major provider through existing transit lines via Turkey.

[oxi]

"They are also the same folks who are now wantonly ignored -- if not held in outright contempt -- by their so-called government­."

Is this Iran you speak of or the U.S.?

I feel ignored (2000 election results), held in outright contempt by the continued assault upon the Bill of Rights by our federal government!

I think we should worry about what our government does insteade of Iran's!!!

[wereeverywhere]

You seem to not able to recognize two grievances at the same time. That's too bad but hardly a basis for calling on others to ignore the struggle for freedom going in Iran right now. With a little effort, you might one day be able to see beyond the US borders to where other people have hopes of throwing off repression.

[oxi]

How about we worry about our freedom!

The Bill of Rights has been under attack recently and all you care about is Iran's freedom?

Why don't you move there...

[oxi]

"They are also the same folks who are now wantonly ignored -- if not held in outright contempt -- by their so-called government­."

Is this Iran you speak of the U.S.?

I feel ignored (2000 election results), held in outright contempt by the continued assault upon the Bill of Rights by our federal government!

I think we should worry about what our government does insteade of Iran's!!!

[Pye Ian - Huffpost Blogger]

Thanks for that link and info, BiBiJan. Compelling indeed, and might explain why Khamenei is now confidently ordering an election fraud probe to appease the rioting populace.

One wonders, then, if said poll results will be shared in Iran as well.

[wereeverywhere]

Beware. Any one given poll is of limited use and this one needs to be looked at carefully. The two to one itself is incomplete:

"The poll did not find that Ahmadinejad had majority support. It found that the level of support for the incumbent was 34%, with Mousavi at 14%."

That obviously leaves a huge gap, slightly over half.
"That is, based on his polling, Ballen did not expect Ahmadinejad to get to 51%."

Here's the important point: 60% of the 27% who said they were undecided favored political reform. As Ballen wrote at that time:

And there's not only quantity but quality as an issue. In other words, of those not decided they tended towards reform as an desideratum:

' A close examination of our survey results reveals that the race may actually be closer than a first look at the numbers would indicate. More than 60 percent of those who state they don’t know who they will vote for in the Presidential elections reflect individuals who favor political reform and change in the current system.'

all "quotes" from Juan Cole website where he has a compelling and well written synopsis of Iranian political history. http://www.juancole.com/ This being the same Juan Cole who in the past, in the interest of truth, has corrected mistranslations of Ahmadinejad that were being exploited by the right wing.

[GalenL]

Perhaps, but it still fails to explain the reporting timeline - unfortunately I don't any solid links on that.

[BiBiJan]

"At this point, were anyone to doubt that this most recent presidential election result in Iran was fixed would be tantamount to, well, thinking that the 2000 US presidential election was impartially interceded by the US Supreme Court."

Let me go on a limb here.

While there is no question Western commentators have been desperate for MA to lose, the reality is something else. As described with compelling facts and figures in:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/14/AR2009061401757.html

In the WaPo Oped they don't go into MA's populist economic policies, grandstanding with nuclear technology and putting satellite in orbit, etc. which undoubtedly has played well with the voting public.

Of course there is a 30% urban middleclass that passionately hates MA. But to imagine they constitue a majority is wishful thinking to the extreme.

[Pye Ian - Huffpost Blogger]

The following forensic analysis brings up enough valid points regarding the timing of the election results to discount that Ballen and Doherty piece in the Washington Post as well as that Terror Free Tomorrow / NAF poll it cites:

http://therealnews.com/t/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=3869

I.E. You can't just have all of the results in that quickly -- in four hours...

[BiBiJan]

As a revolution unfolds everybody becomes an historian. And, of course, every revolution needs a narrative. In this case, the herd seems to have gone for "the stolen election".
The left, reflexively see a stolen election as a personal affront. The right sees it as a great opportunity to demonize Iran some more in the short term, and delegitimize the government in the medium & long term. But is the narrative true?

Well TFT in October 2008 released a poll that said 66% of Iranians "approved of the way President Ahmadinejad is handling his job as president".

http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/articles/brmiddleeastnafricara/527.php

As I conjectured before, the trappings and blessings of incumbency can only have added to that approval ratings.

Does any of this make the demands of the people on the streets illegitimate? Of course not. But I don't have to buy the MSM herd's narrative to support the demands for enlightenment and justice.

[BiBiJan]

P.S. Thanks for your link. I watched the video and observed that Escobar expressed astonishment at tallying the ballots in only 4 hours. But then went on to say some hours before that Mousavi's office was notified by the interior ministry (IM) that Mousavi had won. Escobar give no hint of amazement at IM's tallying Mousavi's votes in much less time than 4 hours. I guess when you want to believe, well you believe.