Lovely Rita - Heat'a Made

Insofar as we have moved onto the politics, blame, racism and class-ism of hurricane Katrina we seem to have forgotten one little lingering matter. Global warming, and the elevated sea surface temperatures of the Gulf of Mexico. Ten of the warmest years of record have occurred over the last eleven years. This is global info based on both terrestrial and oceanic data. Many of us who are in the marine environmental biz can point to our own data sets that show this clearly -- you know, stuff that hasn't even been included in the growing global trends. The distribution of hot spots is not even. Some areas are warming faster than others. The Gulf of Mexico is one of these -- thanks to its latitude, shape and prevailing ocean currents. For the entire summer of 2005, the Gulf has been warmer than normal. The difference betwen normal and "too-warm" is expressed as positive number known as the SST anomaly. For most of the summer the SST anomaly for the Gulf has been + 2 to 3 oC. Not such a big deal you say? Well, 2-3 oC is 10-15% above normal. This means that the surface water of the Gulf has a whole lot of extra heat to give up to the atmosphere -- especially hurricanes. Now even Mike Brown understands that hurricanes grow over warm seawater -- but he may have missed the significance of the added 15%.

An analogy: Let's say you have invested in a bond that returns x % steadily over the long term. And then suddenly, that bond starts returning (x +15% x). Now that would get your attention I assume. This is what is going on with the surface waters of the entire western North Atlantic Ocean this year. A lot more return for the investment group known as Tropical Storms. This means two things: First, more storms. We are up to Q in the alphabet -- we have the potential to have Hurricane Zorro this year. Second -- individual storms have the potential to really make a killing -- relatively average 'investors' can turn into millionaires in matter of hours. Katrina was a big winner -- from Category 1 to a Category 5 "Storm of the Century" in 48 hours -- Jackpot! The potential for relatively average storms to turn into monsters remains -- as long as they linger over that too-warm water -- as long as they are picking up that added 15%. Rita -- she watched Katrina and followed the same strategy. The models all told us that Looziana would be well off Rita's path -- look out Brownville. (As far as models go, I offer you Ophelia -- now there was a gal with a mind of her own.) And so, with another small hurricane entering the Gulf -- in the same fashion as Katrina! -- we start lettin' folks back in to the Garden District, French Quarter and all that Jazz. OOPS! "Sorry folks we missed it when Rita put on her right turn-signal. Now, about those "secured" levees..."

We still have a month and a half of hurricane season to go. Most of the late-season storms originate down in the Gulf of Panama and head, well -- North -- over Honduras, Cuba or through the Yucatan Straits; that is, directly into the Mississippi Valley. Most of the Gulf is still well over 30oC -- "feeding grounds", "extra interest" -- just waiting to be scooped up. Like lots of things approaching America -- they're just following that money trail.

A little less yack, yack about who did or didn't do what -- that'll all be worked out in both criminal and civil cases for the next decade. A little more actual education and discussion about Global Warming and the direct consequences thereof. Remember, the basic formula is not difficult: Global Warming = "Too-Warm Water" = More and Bigger Hurricanes. Just 'cause Katrina and Rita both whacked New Orleans doesn't mean that the next six weeks are going to be better. Opal (1995), Mitch (1998) and Lili (2002) are just three notable "October Guests" to the delta in the last decade.