Clinton to the Convention?

When the Democratic primary calendar ends on June 3rd, Senator Obama will have more delegates than Senator Clinton.

On what grounds could a candidate who is behind at the end of a race avoid conceding that he or she has been beaten? On the grounds that the race really isn't over!

After the primary calendar has ended, Clinton's campaign can only justify or explain her staying in the race if she makes the case that the Democratic Party still has not chosen a nominee conclusively. Clinton needs an argument that the game should go into extra innings. Overtime. Bonus round. Detention. Whatever. Clinton has now found that argument -- she says she will not stop campaigning until the issue of the Florida and Michigan delegates is settled to her satisfaction.

The Florida/Michigan issue get settled, of course, by the Democrats' Rules and Bylaws Committee... unless of course that committee's decision gets appealed to the Credentials Committee... unless of course that decision, too, gets appealed... to the floor of the convention.

Do you see where this is going? If there is an open, unresolved procedural issue involving the Florida and Michigan delegations, Senator Clinton will be able to cite that as her justification for staying in the race until the convention even though she is not ahead in the nomination contest at the end of the primary calendar.

If she can ensure that the Florida and Michigan issue stays unresolved until the convention (and by appealing it every step of the way, I don't see how that can be avoided), then Clinton stays in the race until the convention. Staying in until the convention buys her three more months of campaign time, three more months to make her case to the party and the country, three more months for some potential political unfortunateness to befall Senator Obama.

And it keeps the race for the Democratic nomination open, at least theoretically, for Senator Clinton to win instead of Senator Obama.

How could Clinton win at the convention? Seems to me that three months is a long time in this race, and if it gets that far, anything could happen.

Pffft! You say. Scoff.

Listen: you don't need a vivid political imagination to recognize that if what you really want is to be President of the United States -- a slim chance of becoming President (a fight at the convention) is better than no chance of becoming President (because you dropped out).

The Clinton strategy, as best as I can tell, is to stay in the race. You can't win if you don't play -- conceding the nomination is sure defeat, not conceding means there's still a chance.

The way for her to avoid conceding is for her to avoid conceding that the race is resolved.

As long as the Florida and Michigan dispute is alive, and it is being used as the basis of Clinton's claim that the nomination is unresolved, we should expect that Senator Clinton will stay in the race.

We should also expect that if the Democratic Party's committee system takes up the Florida and Michigan dispute through its rules as they stand now, Clinton's campaign will be able to keep the Michigan and Florida dispute alive until the convention. If there's a secret Democratic-insider plan to keep that from happening, it's time for that plan to become un-secret.

The pundit corps has been counting Clinton out and saying the race is over -- but saying it doesn't make it so.

If Clinton fights to stay in until the convention -- which seems utterly plausible to me -- then I believe the Democratic Party's nominee (Obama or Clinton) will lose the general election to John McCain. This last point is of course infinitely debatable -- but my take is that in November, the party that's had a nominee since February/March, beats the party that only got a nominee the last week in August.

So, how does the Democratic Party get a nominee before the convention? Seems to me there's two things that need to happen. One small, one big.

First, Obama's campaign should stop believing what most of the press says, and start believing what Clinton says -- she isn't budging. If they don't mind the prospect of a divided convention, then fine -- if they do mind that prospect, they'll have to fight for their desired outcome. Clinton is now arguing that taking the fight to the convention is OK for the Democrats -- even noble. This argument won't be defeated if it is ignored -- Obama's camp will have to rebut.

Second, if the Democrats are to avoid a divided convention, the Florida and Michigan dispute will have to be taken off the table -- settled in a way that avoids the risk of a rules dispute that stretches the nominating contest out through the convention. I can think of only one way to do that, but there may be others.

Here's my way: based on my read of NBC's delegate math, I think if the Clinton campaign won 100% of what they wanted on the Florida and Michigan dispute, Obama could still clinch the nomination -- even according to the most pro-Clinton math -- if 90 of the remaining 210-or-so undeclared superdelegates declared for Obama.

If they so declared before May 31st, the Rules and Bylaws committee would have no reason to take up the Florida and Michigan dispute because it would be a moot point -- Obama's camp could concede every Clinton demand on the subject and still win the nomination.

Otherwise? I'll be the twitchy one on radio row at the divided Democratic convention in Denver... spooked by the ghosts of 1968, 1972, 1980...

Rachel

PS -- I should note here, briefly, that I don't have a personal preference between Senators Clinton and Obama as to who would run a better campaign against John McCain, or who would be a better President. I think both Obama and Clinton would probably be pretty good general election contenders, and probably they'd each be a good president. (50% of my hate mail tells me I'm in the tank for Obama and 50% of it tells me I'm in the tank for Clinton - although the level of vitriol on each side has risen and fallen with the tide of the campaign).

Comments

[longislandlol]

Well - your case now makes it easy for the superdelegates to act

[HHarvey]

Last time I did a little checking on the uncommited delegates I noticed a disturbing trend. Most of them had either Bill or Hillary to thank for getting them where they were. My guess is these same superdelegates are holding out until convention time to give Hillary the leverage she wants. To help her win Michigan and Florida seats and taking it all the way to the convention. It is there where they will come out and finally support Hillary. Those delegates who are casting their votes for Obama now have nothing to fear, those holding out appear to be doing so for an ulterior motive and I believe it is to help Hillary.

[Dmitriy]

Awesome article. The issue was discussed right on. I have outmost respect for Rachel.

[mrqcguy]

Rachel,

Regardless of who you are in the tank for this homo loves you! You are one of the best pundits on the circut and I always love your humor! Keep up the great job you have been doing when you fill in for Keith...

[pmag88]

What would happen if we counted Florida as is, gave Obama the uncommitted in Michigan, and split the supers down the middle? Barack still wins, right ? Now factor in that it is almost impossible that the supers would change direction and start moving back towards Hillary. Why all the fear?

If Hillary or anyone else tries to take this to court the supers must move to Barack and end it right there. If they don’t, we should make sure none of the elected supers ever hold public office again. To do anything less means we get what we deserve. period.

[pilgrim7]

I disagree with Rachel that either would make a better president. As far as I know, one is definitely better than the other, not "probably.­" And one is "probably" not much better than McCain with that' person's politics as usual.

[deb3mscapecod]

I beleive or should I say hope that the Superdelegates, and Super Duper Democrats/­delegates, i.e. Al Gore, Nancy Pelosi will act. It will be the majority of the party representatives that will take a walk with her and Bill. Hillary does not have a grass roots campaign or the money to continue the fight until the end. The Party will not stand for this BS. If my Party fails to do the right thing, well, bye bye Democrats, hello independents. I am done.

[HHarvey]

They will act, but only at convention after Hillary has tried to achieve Michigan and Florida counts.

[ibsteve2u]

George W. Bush, Richard Cheney (of "So?" fame), and Hillary Clinton all share a belief system that is dangerous to America - and even humanity.

It is what Adam Savage of The Discovery Channel's "The MythBusters" so clearly enunciated:

"I reject your reality, and substitute my own.".

In any other era, such behavior would have earned each of them the label of "mad".

[Cay]

What do you mean "there's no doubt she's in it for the vp spot"? Of course there's doubt. I agree with Rachel. It's just as likely they believe Barack can't win the general and Hillary needs to save the Democratic party from itself. People are people and the Clintons are angry and shocked they lost what they thought was going to be a cakewalk nomination. It's easy to turn that anger into a self-righteous belief that they, like Karl Rove "have the real numbers."

[BetterAmerica]

Even if she's offered the VP spot, she shouldn't take it. It's no good being on a losing ticket.

Anyone who thinks Obama can beat McCain must have their internet stuck on HuffPo. There are serious concerns Dems should have about Obama's electability.

Hillary is the only chance we have to win the WH.

[William1950]

She could not win the primary, but she will win the general?? wow, what logic.!

And in four years at the end of her first term we will have world peace, the economy will be great with jobs for all, world hunger will be a thing of the past and energy will be free, beamed in from outer space. Kids will run naked in the streets joyfully and there will be no such thing as crime. everyone will love one another, there will be no more depression, no homeless, no endangered species...­. hell, the dodos will be making a comeback.

[Trill]

To "BetterAme­rica"....J­ust watch him! Him....NOT her.

[William1950]

She lost the primary but she will win the general. Wow, what logic!

And in four years at the end of her first term there will be world peace, energy will be free and beamed to us from outer space, world hunger will be a thing of the past, there will be no crime and children will run naked in the streets joyfully. Jobs will be plentiful and the pay will be great. Health care will be free for anyone and we will all love one another. There will be no endangered species - hell, the dodos will be making a comeback.

[HHarvey]

See, it's talk like that which makes me question if you are a true democrat. If Hillary were farther ahead than Obama and Obama was the person I was voting for would I not vote for Hillary in the general election? As much as I dislike her personally, I would vote for her over McCain because of the issues. You didn't elaborate on why you think Obama is not electable over McCain. I have several republican friends who dislike McCain and it is the first time in years they are deciding to stay home and not vote this year. Take that into your equation!

[Libertynjustice4all]

Considering the sizeable proportion of unlearned, injudicious and bigoted folks in America, on both the right and left (the term liberal is employed way too loosely), I too would be rather surprised if Obama is able to win the presidency.

[TommyHollis]

With all the money floating around in these campaigns, just re-do Florida and Michigan. Settles everything without either hate mail or worse.

[Marlyn]

"just re-do Florida and Michigan" ???

That is NOT going to happen. It is too late now.

[Dmitriy]

Why redo? These states have moved up their election date "to be heard". Well, as there were no campaigning in either state (except some minor advertisement by Obama) they were punished enough. Now just seat their delegates and embrace the "50 states" strategy otherwise so falsly advocated by DNC. How would you feel if your vote did not count for anything and you had to redo it?

[jackstpaul]

Obama bought a tv ad that covered 4 states, with a miniscule fraction being Florida. He couldn't get the ad without that tiny speck of FL. The DNC approved it. He was NOT trying to campaign in Fl, and if he were, it would have been far more prominent than that.

[ChimpmasterDJ]

One thing strikes me as particularly significant in this Democratic Party nomination race. It seems obvious that warmongering (in a patently unjustifiable war of aggression -see Nuremberg indictments for a good context), cluster-bombing women and children in civilian zones, protecting the predatory lending practices of wall street allies by weakening the people's ability to invoke bankruptcy protection, taking every opportunity to reinforce the military industrial complex and the building of a formidable "big brother" machine under the transparently opportunistic fear-mongering excuse of "combating terrorism", etc... are radically, fundamentally antithetical to the core values of the Democratic Party and highly legitimate reasons to oppose Senator Clinton's candidacy.

Yet, none of these perfectly good and legitimate reasons seem to hold any water when raised in argument with Clinton supporters. Their answer seems to be that none of those concerns are legitimate, they are merely reflections of inherent "sexism". My perception (merely my point of view, of course) is that they are so obsessed with the notion of a female in the role of POTUS that all other considerations are cast aside, consciously or not. The sad thing is that they don't seem to realize that this reduces their candidate, in substance, to a pair of ovaries, which cannot be a good argument under any circumstance. This is also a very sad situation in assessing the electorate's lack of understanding of their civic responsibilities under the American system of Democracy, in which "single-issue voters" should be rightfully excoriated as irresponsible.

[Latina4Obama]

"First, Obama's campaign should stop believing what most of the press says, and start believing what Clinton says -- she isn't budging. If they don't mind the prospect of a divided convention, then fine -- if they do mind that prospect, they'll have to fight for their desired outcome."

I agree with this completely. The Obama campaign needs to make some calls to the Super Delagates and put the squeeze on. Enough is enough. Everyone is tired.

If she get's to the convention, it won't be a good scenario for the country. It may be great theater for everyone, but we really don't need this. Her vanity has absolutely no boundaries.

Regarding her recent melt down:
I think Obama needs to cut her off and cut her off now! Ted Kennedy is fighting for his life and she had the lack of judgement to invoke RFK's assasination to make a political point-- a point which also injected the idea of killing a presidential nominee. No spin explains this for me.

This is a melt down. Things are out of control at her campaign. I think with this remark, she's taken herself out of contention for VP. Not just because I'm angry, but because she's too out of control to ever be President.

It's time to end this!

[IMA]

Excellent comment Latina4Obama. I'm a 69-year-old- white- woman4Obama. You've stated our case better than I could. Thanks.

And thanks to Rachel Maddow for this insightful question. Rachel, you are the most erudite and thought-provoking political commentator "in the game." We are truly fortunate to have you and democracy is safer because of your participation in our processes!

[AbbieXHoffman]

Also, I don't know why we are belaboring all this analysis on why Clinton is still in it. There is no doubt that she is in it for the VP spot. She has to say she wants the top of the ticket to continue to garner votes that will thus give her statistical evidence that she should have the VP spot. There is no doubt in my mind that Obama will offer it to her, not because she deserves it, but because her voter base will add to Obama's ability to wipe the floor with McCain. What's the voter base she has that he doesn't?

Many women, that feel slighted
Others that won't vote for Obama is she's not on the ticket
Working class whites that aren't racist, but believe Clinton speaks to their needs better and will fight for them.

Obama and the DNC know this and it will happen. You can take that to the bank.

[Gmoney1]

Hopefully, Michelle Obama will keep "t"hat woman" as far away from her husband as possible!

[dajay]

Hopefull, someone will keep Michele as far away from Obama's campaign as possible!

[Marlyn]

"There is no doubt in my mind that Obama will offer it to her" ???

You forget that if Obama were to do this, he would LOSE HIS BASE! He would no longer be the agent of change. Having Hillary on the ticket is a GOP goal.

[BubbaC33]

If you'd look at Obama's campaign you'd find he has offered much that is in line with the thinking of the GOP. From Social Security to which is the party of ideas, Obama has been far too close to the GOP.

[john85msy]

The GOP has nothing on Obama of substance other than he is AA and that will be the only hurdle Obama has to overcome. I see a tidal wave in the horizon. Just imagine the TV ads reminding the American people how the (R)Republicans and their (R)Republican president ran the country for the last 8 years(he was my president too but I never voted for the a$$hole.). I can't believe I said that.

Go Dems 08!

[vsign]

Hopefully, the remaining superdelegates will choose the best candidate to win the General which is Hillary.

The winner is not the one with the "most" elected delegates. Read the rules.

Yes - the winner is the one with the most delegates including the superdelegates. They can change their endorcements all the way to the convention. Their JOB is to select the best candidate to win the General.

I will reward the one woman in my lifetime who has shown to me her willingness to WORK for me to be a role model for MY values.

Hillary is like Cherry Ames the Army Nurse. She will get us health care or die trying. That's my kind of gal!

[albiceleste]

Yeah. She'll get health care like in '94.

Care to try again?

[masterpo]

So lying, cheating, supporting NAFTA, voting to authorize force in Iraq, supporting sanctions against Iraq that cost over 1 million lives, opening up logging in National Parks, pardoning cronies, lying under oath and obstruction of justice are your values?

Well, then I guess Clinton is your candidate.

[CindyMax]

Easy solution to this whole dilemma. Obama promises to nominate Hillary to the Supreme Court. She could really shine there.

[TommyHollis]

Well she could get her clerks to ghost her opinions, leaving her time to contemplate being the first
Supreme Court Justice to move down to the Presidency.

[berensma]

I can see her badgering Scalia and Thomas now...nice­.

[skibum49]

Personally with all due respect I would prefer that my Supreme Court Justices didn't fail the D.C. Bar exam.