Clinton to the Convention?
When the Democratic primary calendar ends on June 3rd, Senator Obama will have more delegates than Senator Clinton.
On what grounds could a candidate who is behind at the end of a race avoid conceding that he or she has been beaten? On the grounds that the race really isn't over!
After the primary calendar has ended, Clinton's campaign can only justify or explain her staying in the race if she makes the case that the Democratic Party still has not chosen a nominee conclusively. Clinton needs an argument that the game should go into extra innings. Overtime. Bonus round. Detention. Whatever. Clinton has now found that argument -- she says she will not stop campaigning until the issue of the Florida and Michigan delegates is settled to her satisfaction.
The Florida/Michigan issue get settled, of course, by the Democrats' Rules and Bylaws Committee... unless of course that committee's decision gets appealed to the Credentials Committee... unless of course that decision, too, gets appealed... to the floor of the convention.
Do you see where this is going? If there is an open, unresolved procedural issue involving the Florida and Michigan delegations, Senator Clinton will be able to cite that as her justification for staying in the race until the convention even though she is not ahead in the nomination contest at the end of the primary calendar.
If she can ensure that the Florida and Michigan issue stays unresolved until the convention (and by appealing it every step of the way, I don't see how that can be avoided), then Clinton stays in the race until the convention. Staying in until the convention buys her three more months of campaign time, three more months to make her case to the party and the country, three more months for some potential political unfortunateness to befall Senator Obama.
And it keeps the race for the Democratic nomination open, at least theoretically, for Senator Clinton to win instead of Senator Obama.
How could Clinton win at the convention? Seems to me that three months is a long time in this race, and if it gets that far, anything could happen.
Pffft! You say. Scoff.
Listen: you don't need a vivid political imagination to recognize that if what you really want is to be President of the United States -- a slim chance of becoming President (a fight at the convention) is better than no chance of becoming President (because you dropped out).
The Clinton strategy, as best as I can tell, is to stay in the race. You can't win if you don't play -- conceding the nomination is sure defeat, not conceding means there's still a chance.
The way for her to avoid conceding is for her to avoid conceding that the race is resolved.
As long as the Florida and Michigan dispute is alive, and it is being used as the basis of Clinton's claim that the nomination is unresolved, we should expect that Senator Clinton will stay in the race.
We should also expect that if the Democratic Party's committee system takes up the Florida and Michigan dispute through its rules as they stand now, Clinton's campaign will be able to keep the Michigan and Florida dispute alive until the convention. If there's a secret Democratic-insider plan to keep that from happening, it's time for that plan to become un-secret.
The pundit corps has been counting Clinton out and saying the race is over -- but saying it doesn't make it so.
If Clinton fights to stay in until the convention -- which seems utterly plausible to me -- then I believe the Democratic Party's nominee (Obama or Clinton) will lose the general election to John McCain. This last point is of course infinitely debatable -- but my take is that in November, the party that's had a nominee since February/March, beats the party that only got a nominee the last week in August.
So, how does the Democratic Party get a nominee before the convention? Seems to me there's two things that need to happen. One small, one big.
First, Obama's campaign should stop believing what most of the press says, and start believing what Clinton says -- she isn't budging. If they don't mind the prospect of a divided convention, then fine -- if they do mind that prospect, they'll have to fight for their desired outcome. Clinton is now arguing that taking the fight to the convention is OK for the Democrats -- even noble. This argument won't be defeated if it is ignored -- Obama's camp will have to rebut.
Second, if the Democrats are to avoid a divided convention, the Florida and Michigan dispute will have to be taken off the table -- settled in a way that avoids the risk of a rules dispute that stretches the nominating contest out through the convention. I can think of only one way to do that, but there may be others.
Here's my way: based on my read of NBC's delegate math, I think if the Clinton campaign won 100% of what they wanted on the Florida and Michigan dispute, Obama could still clinch the nomination -- even according to the most pro-Clinton math -- if 90 of the remaining 210-or-so undeclared superdelegates declared for Obama.
If they so declared before May 31st, the Rules and Bylaws committee would have no reason to take up the Florida and Michigan dispute because it would be a moot point -- Obama's camp could concede every Clinton demand on the subject and still win the nomination.
Otherwise? I'll be the twitchy one on radio row at the divided Democratic convention in Denver... spooked by the ghosts of 1968, 1972, 1980...
Rachel
PS -- I should note here, briefly, that I don't have a personal preference between Senators Clinton and Obama as to who would run a better campaign against John McCain, or who would be a better President. I think both Obama and Clinton would probably be pretty good general election contenders, and probably they'd each be a good president. (50% of my hate mail tells me I'm in the tank for Obama and 50% of it tells me I'm in the tank for Clinton - although the level of vitriol on each side has risen and fallen with the tide of the campaign).
Loading comments…
Want to reply to a comment? Hint: Click "Reply" at the bottom of the comment; after being approved your comment will appear directly underneath the comment you replied to
Rachel is smart, insightful, and rational - a very rare mix in these anonymous forums!
In the emotion of the race, it is sometimes difficult to see two and three moves ahead in the chess match, but she's laid it out nicely here.
I agree with you about Rachel. Note her point "If Clinton fights to stay in until the convention -- which seems utterly plausible to me -- then I believe the Democratic Party's nominee (Obama or Clinton) will lose the general election to John McCain. " Which says to me that Hillary must be pushed aside by the end of the primary or she could sink Obama and we will be stuck with McSame.
I think she has shot herself in the foot, has gotten foot-in-mouth disease and has sunk herself. Even if Obama looses, I don't think she would be a viable candidate in 2012.
She has one trait that I totally dislike. The inability to admit she is wrong and apologize. Lets see.......
Why do you think HRC is putting up the fight?
It's for no other reason than to do her damndest to make sure Obama loses so that she can say "See? He lost because he wasn't the better canddiate. Now you MUST pick me in '12."
Bill Maher said it best -she's running the 50 Cent camapign - Get elected or lie trying.
i respect and love your opinion as usual you are dead on .. as for dream ticket no way ii wish the pundints stop pushing for it .. she want to be pres nothing else her lastest gaffe makes me think that
do i really want this woman to represent me in the goverment theis race has dragged on far too long
what he should have claimed what was rightfully his we had to play mindset games according to hrc
with the popular votes and karl rove rules .. rules are rules that she agreed to and when she saw that
she was losing she wanted to change the rules, cry sexism & foul play . she is very aware what she says and how she say it very calcuating - when to say and to whom and to how it get out like "white working class people" .. her true feeling show everytime she has no intentions of unififying to democratic party unless she can secure the nomination for presidency .. what does she really have to bring to table anyway? but confusion
Sadly, Hillary Clinton puts her own hunger for power above healing our country. She is spurned on by her husband and Terry McCaliffe and their lust for power; they keep her in a buffer zone apart from reality. Sadly she is so burned out she has lost her sense of reason, perspective and compassion. For the good of country, please, step aside after June 3rd.
(seamunky, I think you mean "spurred on" not "spurned on". If only it were so...)
Seriously, one unfortunate and long-lasting result of Hillary's ungraceful un-exit. It just confirms some people's view of how women roll. Bad sports, pulling our the "sexist" card when things go wrong.
Too bad Hillary didn't study more closely the truly heroic women leaders on the world stage - current and historic.
This campaign has been an embarassment to those of us who choose to lead with honor, rather than just to make a statement.
Sad.
I hate to disagree and Conventional wisdom is a calcified clump of Medie Lies.,
And I have had with the push for Clinton to leave in the middle of the race ***since Iowa***
(AN OBAMA TALKING POINT).
Therefore those who keep harping on it are either:
1) A BUNCH OF BRAINWASHED SHMOKS
2) Or affraid hat will happen at the June 10th.Obama benefactor Trial.
Saw 36 Hillary, 32 Obi stump speeches, and the 44 debates.
****YOU ARE CURRENTLY WATCHING A SWIFTBOATING IN PROGRESS SINCE OBAMA BEGAN COLABORATING W/Mathews and Russert Last October.
I'M MEDIA TRAINED AND AM A PRIMARY SOURCE FOR MUCH OF WHAT I SAY:
Hillary Clinton IS AN "UBER" SAINT (UPPER LEVEL SAINTS in comparison to ***HER MORONIC DETRACTORS**
AND SURE SMELLA COINTELRPO.
Just proves that CATASTOROPHES CAN HAPPEN WHEN when information PIPELINES ARE POISENED. But this was already proven WITH the Holocaust.
Hillary HAS DONE NOTHING WRONG. And almost everything right.
OBAMA TOOK HIS NAME OF THE MICHIGAN BALLOT.
Obama refused to allow a Revote,
HILLARYY HAD THE $14M AND TIME FOR IT.
BECAUSE OF HIS **SABOTAGE*** ALL THE VOTES MUST NOW BE COUNTED.
FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN ***Republicans*** BROKE DEMOCRATIC PARTY RULES. The Democrats THERE obeyed the rules.
THE PSYCHOLOGICAL ABUSERS AND MENTALLY ILL must not win!
And have it with the delusional supporters of Obama the Race Card, Teleprompter Yuppie Kid.
zoloft or haldol? take your pick
the real irony of clinton's sad and embarassing tactics is that, had she chosen to concede to the wishes of the voters in 48 states with a gracious exit, hillary would have left the doors wide open for future female presidential candidates ---
however, her long and well-documented list of campaign failures and blunders, especially the whole geraldine (first woman ever to run for vp) ferraro fiasco, will only reinforce (rightly or wrongly) every stereotype, reservation or prejudice any man (or woman) ever had about choosing a woman to occupy the oval office ...
You are absolutely correct, BTW, I'm not sure Geraldine or Bill were really trying to help her, they all seem to be self-serving, not exactly the type to get excited for the other guy/gal. The whole lot of them are selfish, they deserve one another.
Rachel, you need your own TEEVEE show. We're pulling for you.
Right there with you!
Rachel is analytical and I agree with her analyses. I consider Rachel Maddow and Jeffrey Toobin of CNN the best analytical minds in all of TV (Glenn Greenwald being the king of bloggers.)
What the F? This sucks. I don't want HRC running around screwing things up for the dems and I don't think the Obama camp should exent their had at all. As one poster put it, offer her your hand and she might take your arm. Obama needs to fight to enforce the rules, end of story.
Hillary supporters are organizing busses to go to DC for the DNC meeting May 31, what if Obama supporters were also organized and present? I'm not arguing for a rumble in the street or anything-- but a dignified witnessing and show of support?
You know Rachel, I'm glad there is a least one "talking head" out there that sees the democratic nominating process as "not being over until the fat lady sings". That's democracy gal. So long as Barack Obama doesn't have the necessary delegate count Hillary should go on. She's gone this far.
And I agree with you that even if the contest goes on the the convention floor either nominee will do well in November. Those "pundits" (for lack of a better word) who believe that the Republicans will have the advantage with a three-month jump on the Democrats if Hillary doesn't drop out now are forgetting one thing; it's the Republicans who are imploding not the Democrats.
About Florida and Michigan, chairman Dean has said that come June those states will be counted in some way. That leaves the solution of having the "SDs" announce before the convention. But that misses one important part of the body politic. When it comes down to a hundred current and former politicians or so who will decide who is to be most likely the next President of the United States don't you think they're going to be inclined to squeeze as much out of their vote as possible? I'm looking forward to hearing you report from the floor of the convention in Denver Rachel. Have fun!
Try reading what Rachel actually said:
"If Clinton fights to stay in until the convention -- which seems utterly plausible to me -- then I believe the Democratic Party's nominee (Obama or Clinton) will lose the general election to John McCain."
MANY have said that this is what Hillary wants.....
Hillary wants OBAMA to lose in 08 . I remember Larry King saying in 2004 that the Clintons wanted Kerry to lose so Hillary can run in 08........
it makes me sick.
If Hillary and her supporters do not finally support wholeheartedly the DEMOCRATIC TICKET....
THE SUPREME COURT OR A CABINET POST IS BETTER THAN THE VP SLOT FOR HER IN 2OO8.
I apologize for the mistake. My thoughts were muddied at the time. As it followed you can see I disagreed with her on this point.
Obviously reading comprehension is not your strong suit. What Rachel actually said is if the Democratic nomination goes to the convention floor, either candidate would lose to McCain
I apologize for the mistake. My thoughts were muddied at the time. As it followed you can see I disagree with her on this point.
She is paying all this money to penn, what she should be polling is a 3 way race. She only needs to win the big states. It could be doable and given the way she has been treated, will be seen as justified.
This comment today and the fake outrage to follow was enough for me to say go indy. The new Jeffersonian Party. Let the lef'ts version of the bushies take the Dem party for now. We'll get it back later. What blatent black racisisim there has been in this election. It make's me sick. You don't whine your way into the whitehouse.
I can conclusively affirm you're in the tank. Many of the Huffer writers are unaware of American History. There are plenty of examples of a Presidential nominee going into the covention leading in delegates but not having enough to be declared the winner. In many of those cases the leader did not get the nomination. In some the second place person won or in other cases a compromise candidate was picked. So there is no reason for HIllary Clinton to drop out. In fact the fate of the Democrat Party lays in her hands. If she were to drop out the Dems would become a fringe third party and have to pick candidates like Nader. That should be enough to sober up the most Ardent Obamaniac who wants Hillary to give up. Of course, if Obama were in hillay's position, he would have been waving the white flag months ago. That's just his nature and another reason that the Dems need to pick Hillary.
Because she runs and thinks like Rove and Bush, that's a reason to pick her?
Sorry, that's a reason not to, and that's why she lost.
Nevermind that she begged for and received so much help from Rush Limbaugh and STILL lost.
After Hillary's comments today, it looks like you are right on the money, as usual.
Thanks for your insight, Rachel. I appreciate your work here and elsewhere. Every time I take an MSNBC survey I tell them you rock and need your own show. AFA this analysis of Hillary, I think it's spot on and echoes your comments after the Indiana primary where you mentioned "scorched earth all the way to the convention
In the view of latest polls results like this one :
Survey USA has an Ohio poll suggesting a sizable 9-point lead for Barack Obama in a matchup against McCain.
I don't think Barack Obama needs to be conected to Clintons by any meaning.
one poll, he is down in most. He will lose OH and Fla. Let's poll a 3 way race. the fact they won't put her on the ticket is a good enough reason to go indy. The lies about SC, the lies about today, the fake outrage by fake shills like Keith Olderbum, the chills up the legs of the press. Pull a liberman Hillary. You can take a big state strategy and win this thing. Screw em! I want to see Ariannas face when that happens.
Luv ya, Rachel, but let me make Two points:
"50% of my hate mail tells me I'm in the tank for Obama and 50% of it tells me I'm in the tank for Clinton" implies you're 100% in the tank. I disagree.
Why have you read the comments all the way this far?
How much hate mail does she get?
I love Rachel. Thank God someone has the transistors to cut through the Hillary BS because she is spinning cirlcles around the rest of us - including the networks.
You must be logged in to comment. Log in or connect with
