Opportunity in Iran

The findings of the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran create a tremendous opportunity for a major shift in U.S. - Iranian relations. Yet sadly after the President's press conference today this is an opening the Bush administration will likely miss.

The NIE concluded with "high confidence in the fall of 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program." Not only does this throw cold water on the efforts of those urging military confrontation with Iran, but it also indicates that diplomacy has the possibility of yielding real progress. The findings indicate that the Iranians are not as hell-bent on developing nuclear weapons as many previously believed and decided to put their nuclear weapons program on hold based on a rational cost-benefit analysis. In other words, the claims by the Bush administrations and many of its supporters that one could not negotiate with Iran because they were crazed fanatics irrationally focused on confronting the United States and its allies, has been proven incorrect. As the NIE concludes:

Our assessment that Iran halted the program in 2003 primarily in response to international pressure indicates Tehran's decisions are guided by a cost-benefit approach rather than a rush to a weapon irrespective of the political, economic, and military costs.

Diplomatic engagement is now a must. The NIE assessed that:

Some combination of threats of intensified international scrutiny and pressure, along with opportunities for Iran to achieve its security, prestige, and goals for regional influence in other ways, might--if perceived by Iran's leaders as credible--prompt Tehran to extend the current halt to its nuclear weapons program.

Despite this finding, the President's insistence that his administration will stay the course in its policy toward Iran indicates that this administration is once again primed to miss a real opportunity on Iran. Continuing their policy of over-the-top rhetoric interspersed with thinly veiled threats of military action, while asking for Iranian cessation of their entire nuclear program before we will even talk to them will achieve little.

In fact, the current policy makes it more likely that Iran will develop nuclear weapons.

The Bush administration wants Iran to capitulate not negotiate, which is increasingly unrealistic. Iran suspended its nuclear weapons program in 2003, when the U.S. was at the height of its power in the Middle East, since that time both our situations have changed. The U.S. has become bogged down in both Iraq and Afghanistan, American standing in the world, especially in the Middle East has greatly declined, while Iran's power and influence in the region is at an all time high, especially with oil prices nearing $100 a barrel.

Additionally, the prospects for stronger international sanctions against Iran appear increasingly unlikely. The latest NIE coupled with real questions about the credibility of an administration that continued with high-decibel rhetoric knowing that the intelligence community had reversed its earlier judgment on the Iranian nuclear program undermines the entire process.

Engaging Iran is not just about Iran's nuclear programs. The Iraq Study Group almost exactly a year ago concluded that the best pathway toward peace in the region was through Tehran. This remains the case today. Yet sadly the Bush administration appears no more likely to change its course today than it was a year ago.

Comments

[Garvagh]

The relentless stupidity of George W. Bush is a spectacle to behold. Iran has tried a number of times to restore normal relations with the US, and it has suggested it can accept Israel if Israel withdraws entirely from the West Bank, the Golan Heights and Lebanon. Bush is something of an idiot, or rather a stooge in the hands of far-right militarists in Israel and the US.

[Kirby]

Well, Iran is such a threat to Israel with its 400 + nooculer bombs and American missiles we just have to have a strong stand against talking to them. There's just no good reason to talk to them, and they have embarassed us because they defy Israeli Intelligence, and that of the CIA, too. How embarssing to us vis-a-vis our allies. We have been done out of nooking them. Now our neo-cons have to spend alot of our taxpayers money taking time to try to figure how to get around all this new news so that we can attack them good.
We'll just have to provoke them big time some way, somehow, even if it means that Tel Aviv could be leveled, and what are a few more American lives lost in Iraq when we are doing this for our mentor people, the Israelis.

[Troubledgoodangel]

I am very glad that this report came in. It only strengthens my earlier conclusion that the Iranian (Persian) civilization can be dealt with, if we factor in their penchant for playing black and white, with nothing in between. What I have said previously, is that Iran thinks in terms of good and evil spirits battling for supremacy. It's the Zoroaster kind of thinking. Knowing this, it is easier to do diplomacy. They are always in the chess playing mood, ... and they like to play with white pieces. Like a good chess master, Iran does not reveal its moves in advance, so it kept secret its renunciation of nuclear weapons. Now, Iran thinks that its "move" has paid off, and that Iran's white pieces have triumphed. Iran is in a jubilant mood. The West should let Iran do its thing, but the West should also make wise countermoves. One such move, of course, would be to invite Iran to a new game of chess, now that Iran feels "strong and winning" - using new proposals and rules. The new game should use different pieces (proposals), and it should be more diplomatic and relaxed. If Iran sees some powerful incentive, it might accept a new game, and it might well return to its original intent, also a chesslike move, to vindicate its earlier "winning" game on enriched uranium, that "a world body guarantee its enriched uranium supply." After all, if we believe what the media have been saying, that original idea was proposed by Iran .. but mindlessly struck down by some bad players from the West!

[Dangoodbar]

What happens everytime Dich Cheney shakes his fist at Iran?

The price of oil increases.

Call me a cynic but that is why I think the Bush administration lied about Iran and wants to keep tensions high.

The fact is without a DRAFT there is no way America can do anything about Iran no matter how dangerous the situation. Furthermore a DRAFT would cost Repugs what matters most, power in Washington. Iran knows this as does the rest of the world.

So knowing that nothing can be done about Iran and now also learning Bush was lying about the danger, the question must be asked WHY? What is to gain?

If you own Halburton stock much has in fact been gained by the Iran/Bush conflict.

[jwod]

Two hitches appear in your git-along.
First, the Veep will probably continue to be skeptical (if not scornful) of intelligence estimates (he always knows better). Second, the lame argument, used in the aftermath of no WMDs being discovered in Iraq, that we know Saddam still wanted to develop nuclear weaponry, and would have, even if he hadn't yet, made offing him worthwhile. Iran has already been tarred with the brush of wanting to develop such a weapon, and Bush made it clear that Iran getting the knowledge necessary to build one needs to be feared/prevented.
The administration's not over the effects of this paranoia yet. Congress needs to firmly establish the rules and deny funds unless the White House pledges not to use military weaponry to initiate any attack on Iran.

[OckhamsElectricRazor]

Only 3 possible situations exist:
1) Bush/Cheney intend military aggression regardless of Iranian responses; 2) Bush/Cheney are acting on flawed judgement and/or faulty intelligence (again) in an uncertain situation.; 3) Bush/Cheney are acting of secret information that they are not disclosing to Congress and the public.

Regardless of the motives(open aggression, incompetence or covert aggression), engagement by the White House is NOT warranted. Backchanneled reassurances by Congressional leaders and our allies that the US military invasion by Bush will NOT be tolerated. Certainty of impeachment should be made clear if any aggression against Iran is made.

[Overd0g]

Of course there was also a little pressure applied by Bush when he showed he would invade Iraq and Afghanistan. But we must studiously ignore that, of course. Sweep Libya under the rug as well. I'm sure it was Hans Blix. LOL.

[Ashraft]

What is even more depressing is that if Israel decides to act on its own accord and engage Iran in hostilities, it would undoubtedly drag us into the conflict.

Even acknowledging that Israel does not act on its own accord without our blessings does not negate this scenario. In this case the excuse to go to war would not be Iranian nuclear developments but rather Iranian threat to our military in the region. And since the focus of this administration is who exercises hegemony over the region, it will go to any length to curb Iran's.

[deadseascrolls1]

The statements of the administration in the United States clearly demonstrate that this is a fundamentally *theological* conflict.

As Iran has stated over and over, it makes absolutely NO difference whatsoever what it does, the Bush administration will *never* be satisfied; except, perhaps, under ONE condition:

Ahmadinejad and the mullahs "say 'yes' to Jesus Christ as their 'L'ord and 'S'avior"...

Which, however, would send Israel's paranoia off the chart.

Ahmadinejad would then be in a position (according to the paranoia of the Bush administration) to nuke Israel unless Olmert and the rabbis did not *also* "say 'yes' to Jesus Christ as their 'L'ord and 'S'avior...

Something which, apparently, Bush has not yet thought of for some reason.

Maybe he thinks he will be 'Raptured' before that, who knows?

http://after-the-false-peace.blogspot.com/

[Austintatious]

The most recent NIE conclusively demonstrates that a war with Iran would be unjustified. It also demonstrates, beyond question, that the President and Vice President cannot be trusted, and that the Democratic Party has failed us by refusing to act on their impeachment and removal from office.

It seems that many are now breathing a sigh of relief, assuming that the public disclosure of the NIE will be sufficient to deter Mr. Bush and Mr. Cheney from involving the nation in another military conflict.

Folks, there is absolutely no reason to assume that Mr. Bush and Mr. Cheney will be detered from prosecuting their insane plans. They remain in office, thanks to the Democrats, and they are still hell bent on starting a war with Iran.

It is remarkably naive to assume that, just because the NIE is out of the bag, they will suddenly change their modus operandi. Their track record tells us that they simply don't care what the American people, or the world, think of them. They remain dedicated to the neocon agenda of American intervention in, and dominance of, the region.

The State of Israel and the Israel lobby will continue to act in concert with the neocons, in pushing the U.S to war with Iran. The overwhelming majority of the Senate, including Hillary Clinton, bowed to the pressure of that lobby in voting for the Kyl-Lieberman resolution, and "legitimized" any Bush/Cheney military action against Iran.

We should not expect the Republican members of Congress to act. They are morally bankrupt and they own the mess just as much as Bush and Cheney.

Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi and the other leaders of the Democratic party are in the process of becoming co-owners of this disaster by failing to act on impeachment and removal. They, too, will be responsibile for any military action involving Iran, and they should be held accountable.

[Sciguy]

No cold water is being thrown on the plans of those who want to invade Iran. If Bush and the crew want to invade Iran, they're going to do it - they'll just make up some more fake intelligence and go with it. Americans are so gullible that we'll fall for anything - just slap it on Fox "News" and off we go to war!

[mhj555]

If anyone still has doubts whether Dumbya is drunk and insane, replay yesterdays press conference until convinced.
The prezelnit has gone bonkers.

[MajorKong]

The Bush administration has never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity.

[Macbags]

"WE THE PEOPLE" SOLD OUT TO BIG BUSINESS AND
THEY ARE NOW IN TOTAL CONTROL. BUSH IS JUST A
PUPPET OF THEIRS. COULD HE POSSIBLY BE THIS STUPID ON HIS OWN?

[Macbags]

WHAT ELSE IS NEW? THE SKY IS FALLING? THE SKY
IS FALLING!