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Raymond J. Learsy

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The Great Drought: Agriculture, a Harbinger of America's Future

Posted: 08/06/2012 8:47 am

The bold headline on the front page of the Financial Times some two weeks ago, "US Drought Triggers World Food Crisis Alert," reported that the worst U.S. drought in fifty years was pushing agricultural commodities to record prices. The situation has only become aggravated over the past two critical weeks.

Accentuating the growing emergency, the Wall Street Journal was to inform us on August 2nd that "Drought Dries Up Cattle Market," explaining that faced with seared grazing pastures ranchers across the U.S. who can't afford to provide food and water to feed steers and heifers and are rushing to sell them while feedlots are holding back purchases because of the escalating price of feed corn.

Clearly, a disaster in the making. A disaster not only for food prices in the American market, but portending a food crisis worldwide. It is an act of nature that has unsheathed a fact of fundamental significance, but barely touched upon in either political nor civil discourse. That the United States, with its vast expanse of fertile plains reaching from sea, past the Rockies, to sea, with its efficient inland waterways transport system, with its competent and professional farming community, has become, as the world's largest grower and exporter of corn, the largest exporter of wheat and the second largest exporter of soybeans, in other words, the world's food basket. It is a realization that will vest the nation with future choices of vast import and profoundly touch upon its character.

As if to underline the dimensions of responsibility that will be vested in the U.S. in this rapidly technologically flattening world, with its burgeoning population necessitating the doubling of food production by 2050, an event took place in Cambodia that may well set the parameters of future discourse on this vital issue.

Just last month Cambodia announced it would push for the formation of a Milled Rice Exporting Association together with Vietnam, Thailand, Laos and Myanmar. Cambodia's Minister of Commerce Cham Prasdih was quoted, "The five countries will be the world's food supplier -- what we could call the food basket of the world." Cambodia's Prime Minister Hu Sen would chime in, "when we form the association we would have enough power to negotiate with OPEC."

Well, clearly what is good enough for a helping of Goose and rice should be good enough for a helping of Gander and corn, or soybeans, or wheat, or meatballs. Inevitably this is the direction we are veering as the world's population grows and a planetary crisis in food
looms ahead. Not only will billions of dollars be at stake, but the very lives of millions of the planet's inhabitants.

How will we engage this responsibility? Will we join forces with other major grain producers such as Australia, Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Ukraine to form a Grain Growers Export Association (let's call it the GGEA) and pervert the market as OPEC has done with oil, whereby we would play the role that Saudi Arabia plays in OPEC, as the major and indispensable contributor to the cartel.

Will we permit the continuation of unbridled commodity speculation on our poorly supervised commodity exchanges to traders/speculators/gamblers who are free to hype the pricing of foodstuffs to levels grossly out of reach of the everyday consumer, let alone the offshore markets that have become dependent on America's harvest bounty. Just days ago the FT reported that "Trading Houses Bet Corn Price to Soar," "that traders and hedge funds are betting that corn prices will soar to never before seen levels as the worst US drought in half a century decimates the global corn crop... The number of call options that would give traders the right to buy corn at prices between $9 and $10 has risen thirteen fold in the past month."

Can we, in the future, permit the trading houses, the Bank Holding Company trading desks, and the vast plurality of gambling profiteers playing the grain markets who are neither farmers nor commercial consumers, to push prices ever higher to their own profit and benefit at the cost of consumers worldwide thereby becoming the arbiters of those who have access to food and those who do not?

These are serious issues of economic resonance, morality, and national conduct with worldwide implications. Given the devastation that this year's drought has brought about, this is a wake-up call that needs be addressed.

 
 
 

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11:59 AM on 08/08/2012
You want to help farmers?

#1: Drain out your home pool....permanently.

#2: Put water cut-offs timed and locked for 5 minute water flow in all city showers...better still, get a 20 Liter bucket

#3: Covert all front lawns to gardens or desert landscapes (Cacti etc)

#4: Make rainwater harvesting systems mandatory for ALL homes AND commercial buildings (Use siphonic drainage systems for commercial spaces etc)

#5: Convert storm drainage systems to Groundwater recharging systems

#6: Encourage and give away free slots for public pools.....and build a few inside abandoned Big Box stores like closed Circuit City and Linens and Things stores.

# Introduce "Time of Year" billing for water, just like electricity.

# CONSERVE. CONSERVE. CONSERVE
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
MassWG
12:54 PM on 08/07/2012
I don't know how you can discuss this without mentioning the ethanol mandate. If half the normal corn crop is wiped out by drought, and half the normal crop goes to ethanol, the solution seems pretty simple: stop putting food in our gas tanks and put it back on people's tables where it belongs.
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HazelPethigFan
I don't know until I know
01:14 PM on 08/07/2012
reduce driving/
increase efficiency to account for the 10% of ethanol used in gas and the issue is solved. oh wait we are americans . its always someone else's problem. not mine
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12:57 AM on 08/08/2012
In large cities like Houston, trolley systems were bought up by National City Lines, scrapped and replaced by buses. Other cities victimized by NCL include Los Angeles and Tulsa.

Bike riders in Houston only have a stripe of paint between them and motorized vehicles.

http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2012/03/top-romney-adviser-wants-200-plus-hike.html
EconomicPolicyJournal.com: Top Romney Adviser Wants $2.00 Plus Hike in Gas Tax

"As the price of gasoline soars, top Mitt Romney adviser, Harvard economist Greg Mankiw sticks to his guns and calls for a hike in gasoline taxes. In a recent blog post, Mankiw points to a WaPo column which states:

N. Gregory Mankiw, former top economic adviser to President George W. Bush and current adviser to Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, also backs a stiff gas tax increase... In a New York Times column this year, Mr. Mankiw offered a tax overhaul that might include a gas tax “exceeding” $2 per gallon.

A significant portion of such a tax ultimately may land on oil producers, which means it cuts back on supply and exploration and, in a feedback loop, smacks the consumer right in the wallet."
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
la maqina
04:04 PM on 08/07/2012
It's not that simple, because ethanol dissplacing corn is a myth that big oil perpetuated to stop any competion to fossil fuels. Corn does not dissapear through the fermentaion process. A cow only digests a portion of the protein from whole or ground corn because of the difficulty to digest a hard product. The fermentation process also only takes a portion of the protein from the corn, but through the fermentation the corn actually ends up in a condition that resembles the first to second stage of digestion, thus leaveing the remaining protein more readily available to be absorbed by livestock. The end result is close to the amount of protein that the livestock would have gotten in the first place. All leftover mash goes to feed livestock or is reprocessed as meal.. The added extra price that farmers have received as a result of ethanol production has actually boosted corn planting. If you cut out corn ethanol, prices would still have to rise, or less farmers would grow corn. The real problem with shortages besides weather have to do with the revenue of product not trickling down to the producer. We no longer keep surpluses to alleviate these conditions. Even before the drought in Texas last year many such producers were dropping their crops and herds because it just isn't profitable enough to raise. Traders and hedge fund managers and middlemen swipe all the profits of any increases while the actual producers are left high and dry!
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Zonatron
Agrarian Hippie
09:37 AM on 08/07/2012
This is an interesting issue; the connection however, has to do with oil itself. We eat oil. It as long as there is ground to put seed if you spray enough fossil fuel fertilizer and pesticides on it it will likely grow. The rice belt won't be able to negotiate with OPEC they will HAVE to negotiate with OPEC. This is a path that will simply worsen the crisis. Burning fossil fuels causes global warming. Big ag exacerbates the problem by emitting nitrous oxide and methane. This causes further desertification of arable land, etc, etc. This won't close the loop it will simply widen it. We need to STOP thinking on a global scale and globally help small farmers reclaim the land, sequester carbon, and grow locally and feed the local communities. Our "techno-grandiosity" is our undoing not our salvation. Big Ag IS the problem; we don't need any more of if. Put people back on the land, farm locally, farm your yard, and stop growing food with dead dinosaurs.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
la maqina
04:11 PM on 08/07/2012
Thank you!! I'm a sustainable organic farmer, I applaud you for a real understanding of what the reality is!! Everyone thinks of our problems in terms of dollars, and this keeps us sliding down hill. WE NEED TO REVERSE OUR SITUATION NOW! We better get started, the way we do it, is the way nature made this bio sphere!! We have to back up!! I'm not suggesting living like Indians, but industrial ag has to stop!! Thanks again!! Everyone please support your local farmer! We are just trying to survive and feed people!! Not to become filthy rich at any cost!!!
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Zonatron
Agrarian Hippie
04:56 PM on 08/07/2012
Urban farmer here.  Am bidding on a 40 acre homestead near here.  Good on you for your work.  I'm a total addict.
11:40 PM on 08/06/2012
For years and years American farmers grew more than the market could absorb. What we raised was kept right at or slightly below the cost of production. For many of us, some member(s) of our families had to seek off farm employment so we could keep our farms, for countless others the family farm had to be sold.

We got smart, figured out how to get rid of our surpluses. Never, ever did any of our city cousins give our plight a second thought as long as food was cheap. Too bad for everyone now some smart person didn't figure out a way for us to keep a little extra food around and not drive the price into the pooper, if we had a little of that extra grain, milk,cheese, etc. stockpiled like we did in the 1980s, this drought might not cause such a drastic rise in food prices.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
la maqina
04:14 PM on 08/07/2012
Correct!! My grand father told me that all farmers needed to strike for two years and just raise food for ourselves and after that, we would have all the respect we deserve, and people would not take spending money on food soo lightly!!
08:16 PM on 08/06/2012
All I know is that the IFA (Intermountain Farmers) corn that I use as a base feed for my birds has about 1/3 more filler in it than it did last winter (the birds won't eat it so it is easy to see). The cost for my small flock isn't huge but for big producers?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
la maqina
04:17 PM on 08/07/2012
One of the new gmo varieties no doubt!! Less protein!! To gain a trait in species, you loose another!! Nature had it right all along, smaller ears on heirlooms, but more nutrition per pound!!
10:57 AM on 08/20/2012
Too true! I am always nervous because so many of the fillers are just terrible. I inherited these birds and they were raised on junk. I tried to switch them to organic pellets and they refused. I have candy corn birds. They do like tomatoes and seeds and kale and bugs but they really love corn. I should look for a non-gmo cracked corn...
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artleads
Let's have a national retreat.
06:42 PM on 08/06/2012
Industrial agriculture seemed benign to many at first, but we are now experience a perfect storm where all the industrial chickens have come home to roost. Home gardens, urban agriculture, and permaculture will eventually pick up the slack.
11:19 PM on 08/06/2012
the problem is what happens until "eventually" -- and even home gardeners need water
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Zonatron
Agrarian Hippie
09:42 AM on 08/07/2012
Organically grown and locally produced food is soil building not soil destroying. It holds water better. Reforesting instead of desertifying helps to change water and weather patterns. This is a total paradigm shift. Local farming can utilize drip irrigation instead of the daytime use of single pivot irrigation systems that evaporate water away and grow mono-crops. Don't go from "today" to "no water" Go from "this isn't working" to lets move in the right direction. Aircraft carriers are hard to turn. Big ag is one big ship. Local Ag is a revolutionary act.... Farm your yard!
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artleads
Let's have a national retreat.
10:08 AM on 08/07/2012
I understand that there is quite a supply of stored food yet. True. I'm not waiting until eventually to grow my squash; I'm doing it now. I don't have a winter garden or a greenhouse, but, with luck, there will be the opportunity to get these next year. Water is largely supplied by the shower and the sink. Could do better, since not all the outlets serve the garden. But buckets under the sinks would provide an affordable means of watering the garden. It's doable.
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Zonatron
Agrarian Hippie
09:39 AM on 08/07/2012
My man!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Cecelia Nunn Haack
Art saves lives
06:14 PM on 08/06/2012
This year is important but the weather and crop harvests next year will be a critical factor in global food prices for years to come. Once this cycle of cattle pass through the marketplace the next cycle will be much more expensive as will pork and chicken, this will have a dramatic impact on American budgets and eating habits. I believe we are standing on the cusp of great changes.
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la maqina
04:25 PM on 08/07/2012
Yes, and what will also be important is how the ranchers and farmers that invest to hang in there are rewarded. We were shedding producers before these weather events because of low or no profits!!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
itsnoteasybeingblue-n-tx
my micro-bio is none of your business
04:30 PM on 08/06/2012
this is not true! somebody smarter than me will do something. i don't need to do anything to be prepared because they won't let us starve!

right?

Right!?

RIGHT?
11:22 PM on 08/06/2012
actually for almost all Americans--- right
but you may be missing some favorite foods unless you are well off - or have a way to grow your own...........but I really like the idea of being prepared!
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Zonatron
Agrarian Hippie
09:43 AM on 08/07/2012
Praise the holy cheeses.
04:17 PM on 08/06/2012
Never fear.

We'll address the issue presently.

When it gets bad enough.

In time?

Who knows?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
la maqina
04:27 PM on 08/07/2012
Oh, it is bad enough now! Really!!
PATOISJAM
reason: strategize: succeed
04:06 PM on 08/06/2012
This drought is nothing for people can still import or export, grain is stored and the supermarket is full. So, people are quite relaxed. However, when drought is married with all the other horrors being inflicted upon the planet such as pollution, oxygen deleption in the oceans, floods and the like, we are well on our way for a catastrophe.

In hindsight humans will see how they have fiddled while the planet burned.
04:19 PM on 08/06/2012
Oh, I don't know. What happens if this becomes the new norm? What will our foodstuff output be?

What will happen if the farmland in Mexico becomes pretty much useless, as a result of global warming. Where to you expect those people to head for a living? Food? Do you think we will welcome them with open arms?

Maybe Canada can feed us.

Maybe not.

Then what?
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angelcakesinc
Silence is death
12:48 AM on 08/07/2012
Well, then we invade and conquer Canada, obviously. Isn't that what America does?
PATOISJAM
reason: strategize: succeed
08:27 AM on 08/07/2012
Have you ever seen how people act when there is no food or there is a severe shortage? No one likes to share then.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
la maqina
04:28 PM on 08/07/2012
Absolutely, plus, the hoarding by traders has all ready started!!
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
lbsaltzman
Permaculture and Sustainability
02:45 PM on 08/06/2012
Let me take issue with several points.

1. This was not a natural disaster but one we partially caused ourselves do to global warming.
2. The farming in the Midwest is not competent it is disastrously incompetent. The farming practices are causing the loss of top soil, polluting lakes and rivers with chemical fertilizers, pesticides and herbicides. These practices are unleashing gmo monster weeds and the food grown on the large industrial farms is unhealthy for human and animal consumption.
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HazelPethigFan
I don't know until I know
09:24 PM on 08/06/2012
not competent? arrogant nonsense. You know nothing. GMOs have been PROVEN to reduce topsoil erosion since it allows for very limited tillage. Erosion is a huge problem with YOUR old fashioned, labor intensive politically-correct agriculture which is still reliant on plows and cultivators.

Modern agriculture is data and science based. We can prove our methods YOUR agriculture is all politics, emotion and ideology.

We (I am a farmer) have done a great deal to go in the right direction. Give us some credit rather than giving us obnoxious rants
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Conspiracy2Riot
Go ahead, try and eat that fiat currency
10:36 PM on 08/06/2012
ahem. GMO's or what they should be called "transgenic garbage" have KILLED the soil because despite a limited tillage, the microbes are DEAD from the chemicals that accompany those seeds.

besides which, doesn't seem like that drought tolerant corn they hyped is working out so well, now does it?

and you could attempt to prove YOUR methods but unsurprisingly you don't. monsanto just produces limited, non independent reviewed studies that they skew and make false claims.

the truth is organic/permaculture methods of agriculture produce soil that is alive and it holds more moisture. organic farmers aren't having near the troubles that farmers who use industrial, chemical techniques are suffering.

and last, it is industrial agriculture that has made this a political issue. look at the money they throw at gov't. look at how they have their lawyers write bills, get those same people appointed to positions within gov't and then pass bills they created. clarence thomas or michael taylor ring a bell?
11:32 PM on 08/06/2012
how does GMO "allow for limitied tillage"?
what kind of a farmer? critters- corn-wheat- fruits and veggies or a combination of products?
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HazelPethigFan
I don't know until I know
09:53 PM on 08/06/2012
And as for GMOs being safe, here is a review of 30 research projects in GMO hatin Europe:

http://paepard.blogspot.com/2011/06/decade-of-eu-funded-gmo-research-2001.html

Their conclusion: GMOs are as safe as nonGMO.

Let's see YOUR science (oh please link Jeffrey Smith. please please please)
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Zonatron
Agrarian Hippie
09:47 AM on 08/07/2012
Go to the Center for Food Safety all the research and links you need.

Thank Monsanto for your paycheck and then live your life knowing you are part of the problem.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
la maqina
12:49 AM on 08/08/2012
Is that why they banned them inthose countries???
12:58 PM on 08/06/2012
you seem to be missing the main point--global warming? Hello? Of course the Wall Street vultures are going to be circling over the carcass, but they didn't kill the corn crop, climate change did. We will need international regulation of crop prices to avoid worldwide famine and civil war, but more importantly we need serious movement on reducing carbon emissions.
04:20 PM on 08/06/2012
You are talking about international rationing.

Good luck.
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artleads
Let's have a national retreat.
04:33 PM on 08/06/2012
We have enough oil wells and coal mines to last us awhile. We also have stored energy reserves. So wouldn't it be smart to place a moratorium on all new carbon and radiation emitting energy exploration and development? That would give us some time to consider the implications of climate change. Meanwhile, continuing with the same rate of exploration (including the Arctic) as if our pants were on fire is not behavior befitting responsible adults.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
la maqina
04:40 PM on 08/07/2012
The bottom line is, it pays to destroy our eviroment, but fixing it doesn't!!
12:23 PM on 08/06/2012
Any meaningful paradigm shift discussion must include human population reduction and reproduction entitlements.
04:22 PM on 08/06/2012
Worldwide famine followed by world war will solve the population problem, which will, in turn, solve the food problem. And the climate change problem.

See? Mother Earth knows how to take care of herself!

Would that we did.
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Conspiracy2Riot
Go ahead, try and eat that fiat currency
10:38 PM on 08/06/2012
well things better intensify because we're still increasing population at this point and we need a drastic reduction NOW.
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artleads
Let's have a national retreat.
04:34 PM on 08/06/2012
And must include discussion of industrial civilzation, which is, afterall, the source of the earth's population explosion.
12:13 PM on 08/06/2012
The meek shall inherit the earth, because no one else will want it.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
la maqina
04:45 PM on 08/07/2012
Yea, when the others are through with it!! ( to the winner goes the spoils )
T-Haight
What was wrong with federalism?
12:10 PM on 08/06/2012
This would be a good time to chime in with the fact that last year (might have been 2010, I forget), the US sent over 40% of its harvested corn to factories to produce ethanol. Further, that every gallon of ethanol requires several gallons of water to distill into the final product.

Oh, and the US quotas for ethanol use keep going up every year, even while gasoline use is going down thanks to the economy and fuel prices.

The US could do a lot to bring down domestic food prices if we just did away with the unthinking refining quotas for ethanol. It would also free up a lot of water for parched crops (probably too late for this year, but in the future). Further still, research - sponsored by environmentalists - suggests that ethanol production doesn't offset any carbon because it ends up driving the need for more arable land (i.e., more deforestation).
nschomer
Scientifically Progressive Libertarian Socialist
02:26 PM on 08/06/2012
Not to mention the damage done by ethanol in combustion engines. There is a reason why your lawnmower probably has a warning label to the effect of "No more than 10% ethanol in the gasoline". Ethanol destroys engines, which is all fine and good if you're trying to stimulate an economy based on people buying disposable everything every few years, not so good if you're trying to create a sustainable one.
11:37 PM on 08/06/2012
ethanol does not destroy engines-- just anything not made from metal (belts, gaskets,etc) --- they have been driving with ethanol in Brazil for years
04:23 PM on 08/06/2012
It should be a felony to use foodstuffs to generate motor fuels.
11:44 PM on 08/06/2012
it should be a felony to use foodstuffs instead of grass to feed cattle-- but corn for ethanol has been proven to be a stupid idea but it has become a political football so maybe you should talk with the representatives from the "corn" states
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10:01 AM on 08/08/2012
Not to mention the use of corn kernels for fuel in home stoves. How lazy are we as a nation that instead of a wood-burning stove, someone who wants to be "natural" and "self-sufficient" will actually burn FOOD to heat his home? It's enough to make me puke.

http://www.backwoodshome.com/articles/monroe42.html