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Raymond J. Learsy

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A European Embargo on Iranian Oil and Our Strategic Petroleum Reserve

Posted: 11/30/11 08:56 AM ET

Has France's President Sarkozy, who is now calling for a European boycott of Iranian oil, been reading the HuffPost?

Perhaps, perhaps not. But one thing is certain, the concept of embargoing Iranian oil has been espoused in this corner on numerous occasions over the past weeks and months while barely a word on this issue was to be found in our media at large nor within the fulminations of our government calling for ever broader sanctions against Iran in its pursuit of nuclear weaponry.(Please see "Iran Threatens The Use Of The Oil Weapon,"11.21.11 and "Europe's Praiseworthy Syrian Oil Embargo. Why Not Now a U.N. World Embargo on Iran's Oil?" 10.3.11.)

Much has been written about commercial sanctions, but rarely about the truly overarching policy initiative that could take down the Iranian renegade regime, removing the risk of the world confronting nuclear armed fanatics. This, without firing a shot. Nor firing a single missile nor bombing a nuclear weapons installation.

All that could be realized with a truly effective embargo on Iranian oil exports, denying the mullahs the billions used to pay off their enforcement goon squads and the loyalties of their puppet Parliament. It would empower the Iranian people who have been subjugated by the corrupted iron fist of the current entrenched dictatorship.

And now France is spearheading a push for a European oil embargo on Iran ("Paris Urges EU Ban On Iran Oil" FT 11.25.11), much in the fashion of Europe's current embargo on the import of Syria's oil. The issue will be discussed in tomorrow's meeting of EU's foreign ministers in Brussels.

The United States does not import oil from Iran. Yet a European embargo of Iranian oil, oil being a fungible commodity with a world market price, would have a significant impact on world oil prices. To counter what would be the knee-jerk reaction of the market both in trading psychology and dislocation of physical supply, the US. could play a meaningful role were such an embargo policy to be adopted.

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve maintained by the U.S. holds some 750 million barrels of oil. Europe as a whole imports 450,000 barrels of oil daily from Iran. The current price for Brent crude is $111/bbl.

In solidarity with a European embargo of Iran's oil the United States could declare that, given the existential risks to itself and the world that would result from nuclear weapons in the hands of messianic fanatics, it would make available to the European embargo effort a significant amount of its Strategic Oil Reserve holdings. These supplies would be allocated, by way of discussion points, on the following basis:

Given that the current price of Brent crude is $111/bbl every day that the price of Brent pierces that ceiling the U.S. will release 200,000 barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

Were the price of Brent to go above $111/bbl for an entire year, the total draw-down from the SPR would top out at 73 million barrels, but ten percent of its current inventory. It would be a small price to pay given the risks to national security that would result from an Iranian bomb. Strategically it would be a bulls-eye utilization of what the SPR is meant to accomplish in national emergencies.

The balance of the difference between the 450,000/bbls being embargoed could readily be made up by Saudi Arabia whose spare capacity far exceeds the remaining 250,000 barrel shortfall, and in whose interest it is to be supportive of the aims of this embargo (please see "Saudi Arabia's Appropriate Response to Iran's Assassination Plot," 10.16.11)

Simultaneously the US should make it known that if Saudi Arabia does not cooperate and uses the resulting dislocation of the oil market to achieve ever higher prices, that with each and every week that ends with Brent crude prices rising beyond $111/bbl, the U.S. Navy would withdraw one of its more than 30 vessels patrolling the Persian Gulf whose primary yet undeclared purpose is to protect Saudis' Sunni Monarchy from Shiite Iranian aggression.

Here is an opportunity for our Administration, instead of talking the talk, actually walking the walk.

 
 
 

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08:06 AM on 12/01/2011
Raymond, I love how you- and we in the West- are the arbiters of what is best for the world.
As the biggest wasters of energy in the world, it is laughable that the addict should dictate the allocations and price of oil.
News flash- the energy market will respond to the long-term trends of scarcity regardless of the short term manipulations of speculators or politicians. Besides, China and Russia are not going along with your plan.
Heck, the world has gotten used to oil being over $100bbl/ for how many months? might as well get used to $130/ bbl.

Leave the 38 days worth of oil (US usage) in the SPR.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
larrystalcup
05:41 PM on 11/30/2011
good idea, but will never happen!!! this administration has simply refused to make any decision or take any action that would make the slightest wave in the financial markets. obama has many good qualities, BUT leadership is NOT one of them!!! and, in my humble opinion, neither is picking his advisors.......ls
04:49 PM on 11/30/2011
SO, embargo Iran's Oil and they just are going to sit on their hands and see the Persian Gulf Arabs export their share of the OPEC oil?! Get real. Iran will close the straight as they have promised and that is WAR, any doubt about that?! That attempt by itself will send the oil prices beyond $300 a barrel. Do you want to say the GREAT GREAT GREAT Depression is here now?! Who are we kidding?!!

Do you really think that will stop Iran from building a A-Bomb?! NO! That will give them the reason to do so. Hello!! If Iran wanted to have a a-bomb, they would have had it by now. Her neighbors have it and it didn't take them half as long. Iran's nuclear program been around for over 20 years and their LEU productions has been around for 10 years, why you think they don't have the bomb yet? They still have the IAEA inspectors their and UN is watching them like a Hawk!. SO go ahead and kid yourselves and listen to these propaganda and scare tactics. Mean while the oil companies are very happy.

Get real.
crakrman79
Like broken clockwork he's right twice a day!
02:53 PM on 11/30/2011
A no bombs or boots idea sounds like a perfectly sane thing to try!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Overtone
See bio on the Aesop Institute website
01:42 PM on 11/30/2011
This is a brilliant post!

With hawks in Israel and the GOP calling for a military strike it is an extremely important and timely one.

According to published reports Iran has the capability to launch an ElectroMagnetic Pulse (EMP) attack on the USA and if attacked could create a catastrophe of huge proportions.

See the Aesop Institute website for details of the impact of an EMP caused by a solar megastorm.

The actions suggested in this post should be implemented by the White House without delay.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Overtone
See bio on the Aesop Institute website
01:42 AM on 12/01/2011
Iranian military handbooks point out the benefits of such an ElectroMagnetic Pulse (EMP) attack. Russia, China, and North Korea also possess EMP technology.

A member of the congressional EMP Commission said America could plunge back into the 19th century, with Katrina-like chaos nationwide.

"A single nuclear weapon will cause the collapse of the electric power grid, all the critical infrastructures and other electronic systems across the entire continental United States and basically cause a permanent blackout," he told CBN News.

His nightmare scenario shows Iran or its terrorist proxy, Hezbollah, parking an unmarked freighter off America's East Coast or in the Gulf of Mexico.

They would fire a nuclear-tipped scud above a city like New York, then immediately sink the freighter to destroy evidence of their handiwork.

"Even if we were able to identify the scud by our radars, we wouldn't be able to identify who did it," he explained. "This is a way of keeping your fingerprints off it."

Former CIA double agent Reza Kahlili spent time as a member of Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps. He said the Iranians have conducted missiles tests off ships in the Caspian Sea, which are consistent with an EMP-style attack.
12:06 PM on 11/30/2011
I'll admit that an embargo is preferable to war, but the question remains: By what right do we plan regime change in Teheran?
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robadeaux
Your labels have expired....
01:45 PM on 11/30/2011
We do not plan regime change. The MIC and proponents of forever war do that stuff. If you think the people of the US have any of the power... you are mistaken.
12:01 PM on 11/30/2011
Has Learsay followed articles on the website Californians for Clean Energy and Jobs? While articles about California's solar industry are most frequently, you run into articles about biomass fuels as well. Corn ethanol is definitely out of the picture, but a lot of strides have been made in developing fuel from algae. In fact the Defense Department has just placed an multi-million dollar order with Solazyme to provide biomass fuel. UCSD is currently expanding its program on biomass research - focusing on algae. AuroraAlgae, based in the Bay area, is exploring the possibility of getting fuel from ocean-grown algae. I might add that a year ago (or so) I read an article in der Spiegel about an air plane running on air line fuel made from algae - and that algae fuel really worked better than traditional petroleum based fule

Rather than spending money on military strikes on Iran - let's hit them where it really hurts. We need to spend money on a crash program to develop energy from biomass - particularly algae. For the latest development, check into Californians for Clean Energy and Jobs
11:52 AM on 11/30/2011
This articIe perfectIy iIIustrate­­­­­s the moraI bankruptcy of the US war propaganda US mainstream media. IIIegal wars of aggression Iike the war against lraq shouId have no rewards at any cost.
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cdncommentator
12:19 PM on 11/30/2011
This post perfectly illustrates the moral bankruptcy of fairwayhill and her propaganda.
Ill-conceived wars of unintelligibility, like the war against reason, should have no rewards, at any cost.
11:22 AM on 11/30/2011
Iran is presented as a threat without any proof of an actual threat. Calling for sanctions without proof is ideology.

The French do not support sanctions even if Sarkozy does so going against his own people without any proof is hardly sustainable.
11:12 AM on 11/30/2011
As long as china and india are buying oil from iran it doesn't need Europe. All this does is raise the price of oil which is actually good for Iran. As long as Iran is pumping oil they'll find byers on the market.
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ChiBloger
And the truth shall set us ALL free
11:24 AM on 11/30/2011
I totally agree. It’s like money in the bank that will accrue much interest. It’s a speed bump in the road only until Iran changes vehicles to a dune buggy. China will be that dune buggy.
10:50 AM on 11/30/2011
Thank you Shomaili for your excellent observation. I take my hat off to Iranians who despite politically motivated and repeated sanctions, continue to advance in many fronts. My suggestion to Iranians is to stay the course. The western countries along with Europe are hurting economically and they would harm themselves more by their own actions. Iran is self-sufficient and can meet it’s needs, besides it has other great partners. While sanctions will bear no fruits for the West, as Shomali has noted, scavengers like Learsy and those betting on gaining from suffering of ordinary people could.
10:12 AM on 11/30/2011
"A European oil embargo" doesn't do much to Iran, as Iran sells little oil to Europe and can easily replace it with customers in Asia. What it would do is it will have a spike on the price of oil. The oil traders, and speculators (like Learsy) will be the only winners. They are hedging their bets with the expectation the oil will spike to $170 in a month. Now lets make it happen so these people who stole trillions can add more to their ill gotten wealth.
10:03 AM on 11/30/2011
The idea discussed int his article is a very good idea to bring down the Iranian dictatorship without war, but unfortunately, the banks, energy companies, defense contractors and mercenaries who profit from war will bribe our elected officials to start a war, just like they did with Afghanistan and Iraq. In order to prevent war, we must abolish unlimited legalized bribery (campaign donations).
01:21 PM on 11/30/2011
Actually all the sanctions on Iran and the sabotage, kil.ling of its scientists are all acts of war.