Has France's President Sarkozy, who is now calling for a European boycott of Iranian oil, been reading the HuffPost?
Perhaps, perhaps not. But one thing is certain, the concept of embargoing Iranian oil has been espoused in this corner on numerous occasions over the past weeks and months while barely a word on this issue was to be found in our media at large nor within the fulminations of our government calling for ever broader sanctions against Iran in its pursuit of nuclear weaponry.(Please see "Iran Threatens The Use Of The Oil Weapon,"11.21.11 and "Europe's Praiseworthy Syrian Oil Embargo. Why Not Now a U.N. World Embargo on Iran's Oil?" 10.3.11.)
Much has been written about commercial sanctions, but rarely about the truly overarching policy initiative that could take down the Iranian renegade regime, removing the risk of the world confronting nuclear armed fanatics. This, without firing a shot. Nor firing a single missile nor bombing a nuclear weapons installation.
All that could be realized with a truly effective embargo on Iranian oil exports, denying the mullahs the billions used to pay off their enforcement goon squads and the loyalties of their puppet Parliament. It would empower the Iranian people who have been subjugated by the corrupted iron fist of the current entrenched dictatorship.
And now France is spearheading a push for a European oil embargo on Iran ("Paris Urges EU Ban On Iran Oil" FT 11.25.11), much in the fashion of Europe's current embargo on the import of Syria's oil. The issue will be discussed in tomorrow's meeting of EU's foreign ministers in Brussels.
The United States does not import oil from Iran. Yet a European embargo of Iranian oil, oil being a fungible commodity with a world market price, would have a significant impact on world oil prices. To counter what would be the knee-jerk reaction of the market both in trading psychology and dislocation of physical supply, the US. could play a meaningful role were such an embargo policy to be adopted.
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve maintained by the U.S. holds some 750 million barrels of oil. Europe as a whole imports 450,000 barrels of oil daily from Iran. The current price for Brent crude is $111/bbl.
In solidarity with a European embargo of Iran's oil the United States could declare that, given the existential risks to itself and the world that would result from nuclear weapons in the hands of messianic fanatics, it would make available to the European embargo effort a significant amount of its Strategic Oil Reserve holdings. These supplies would be allocated, by way of discussion points, on the following basis:
Given that the current price of Brent crude is $111/bbl every day that the price of Brent pierces that ceiling the U.S. will release 200,000 barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).
Were the price of Brent to go above $111/bbl for an entire year, the total draw-down from the SPR would top out at 73 million barrels, but ten percent of its current inventory. It would be a small price to pay given the risks to national security that would result from an Iranian bomb. Strategically it would be a bulls-eye utilization of what the SPR is meant to accomplish in national emergencies.
The balance of the difference between the 450,000/bbls being embargoed could readily be made up by Saudi Arabia whose spare capacity far exceeds the remaining 250,000 barrel shortfall, and in whose interest it is to be supportive of the aims of this embargo (please see "Saudi Arabia's Appropriate Response to Iran's Assassination Plot," 10.16.11)
Simultaneously the US should make it known that if Saudi Arabia does not cooperate and uses the resulting dislocation of the oil market to achieve ever higher prices, that with each and every week that ends with Brent crude prices rising beyond $111/bbl, the U.S. Navy would withdraw one of its more than 30 vessels patrolling the Persian Gulf whose primary yet undeclared purpose is to protect Saudis' Sunni Monarchy from Shiite Iranian aggression.
Here is an opportunity for our Administration, instead of talking the talk, actually walking the walk.
Follow Raymond J. Learsy on Twitter: www.twitter.com/raymondLearsy
Lawrence Wittner: Is a Nuclear War With China Possible?
Gissou Nia: Lessons From 1979 Iran for Libya -- Seek Justice, Not Vengeance
European Refiners Wary of Potential Iran Oil Ban
Iran oil targeted by Obama sanctions
France To Raise Iran Oil Embargo At EU Mins Meeting Nxt Wk-Spokesman
As the biggest wasters of energy in the world, it is laughable that the addict should dictate the allocations and price of oil.
News flash- the energy market will respond to the long-term trends of scarcity regardless of the short term manipulations of speculators or politicians. Besides, China and Russia are not going along with your plan.
Heck, the world has gotten used to oil being over $100bbl/ for how many months? might as well get used to $130/ bbl.
Leave the 38 days worth of oil (US usage) in the SPR.
Do you really think that will stop Iran from building a A-Bomb?! NO! That will give them the reason to do so. Hello!! If Iran wanted to have a a-bomb, they would have had it by now. Her neighbors have it and it didn't take them half as long. Iran's nuclear program been around for over 20 years and their LEU productions has been around for 10 years, why you think they don't have the bomb yet? They still have the IAEA inspectors their and UN is watching them like a Hawk!. SO go ahead and kid yourselves and listen to these propaganda and scare tactics. Mean while the oil companies are very happy.
Get real.
With hawks in Israel and the GOP calling for a military strike it is an extremely important and timely one.
According to published reports Iran has the capability to launch an ElectroMagnetic Pulse (EMP) attack on the USA and if attacked could create a catastrophe of huge proportions.
See the Aesop Institute website for details of the impact of an EMP caused by a solar megastorm.
The actions suggested in this post should be implemented by the White House without delay.
A member of the congressional EMP Commission said America could plunge back into the 19th century, with Katrina-like chaos nationwide.
"A single nuclear weapon will cause the collapse of the electric power grid, all the critical infrastructures and other electronic systems across the entire continental United States and basically cause a permanent blackout," he told CBN News.
His nightmare scenario shows Iran or its terrorist proxy, Hezbollah, parking an unmarked freighter off America's East Coast or in the Gulf of Mexico.
They would fire a nuclear-tipped scud above a city like New York, then immediately sink the freighter to destroy evidence of their handiwork.
"Even if we were able to identify the scud by our radars, we wouldn't be able to identify who did it," he explained. "This is a way of keeping your fingerprints off it."
Former CIA double agent Reza Kahlili spent time as a member of Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps. He said the Iranians have conducted missiles tests off ships in the Caspian Sea, which are consistent with an EMP-style attack.
Rather than spending money on military strikes on Iran - let's hit them where it really hurts. We need to spend money on a crash program to develop energy from biomass - particularly algae. For the latest development, check into Californians for Clean Energy and Jobs
Ill-conceived wars of unintelligibility, like the war against reason, should have no rewards, at any cost.
The French do not support sanctions even if Sarkozy does so going against his own people without any proof is hardly sustainable.