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Raymond J. Learsy

Raymond J. Learsy

Posted March 27, 2009 | 05:26 AM (EST)

German History, the Financial Crisis and Democracy in Danger


The tenor of the times is such that one needs to pay attention, close attention, to those who can shed some light on the financial crisis that is veering toward existential dimensions. And largely for worse, the Germans can provide us with a frightening cautionary example of where we might be headed.

They have been there, they have done that, and it wasn't pretty.

This week past Germany's chancellor (talk of a freighted title) the stalwart Angela Merkel sternly warned, "You should not underestimate the huge feeling of injustice among the people about what is happening, and it will only get worse."

The chairman of the Bundestag's parliamentary committee that oversees the government's bank rescue program, Albert Rupprecht, put it ever so bluntly, "If we cannot explain why the crisis took place, confidence in the economic system, the market, even democracy could collapse", (FT "Merkel Ally Warns Of Threat to Democracy" 3.25.09). These comments being generated by rising concern over the potential political impact are caused by the steepest downturn in the German economy since the 1920s/30s. I don't think a history lesson is needed here to know where that led.

This weekend thousands will be taking to the streets in Germany carrying banners emblazoned with "WE WONT PAY FOR YOUR CRISIS". Rupprecht meanwhile is calling for an inquiry to determine the causes of the crisis to be modeled on our 9/11 Commission. He wisely understands the investigation should not be handled by politicians in that they, like bankers and regulators, would be among those sitting in the dock. The commission would have subpoena powers and its findings should find their way into civil and/or criminal actions before the courts.

"We do not need a witch hunt nor an inquisition tribunal, but we need to identify who or what was responsible for the crisis. We should not leave it to the populists". And that comment, coming from the mists of German history, speaks volumes.

 
 
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Libertarian09
Anti War Socialist with a taste for freedom
08:11 PM on 03/28/2009
If you are thinking there are lessons to be learned from history you are deluded. History is nothing more than a series of repeated mistakes. People never learn or why else has America turned into the British Empire, making all the same "imperial" mistakes.
11:22 AM on 03/28/2009
I am writing from Munich / Bavaria. From my point of view mr. Learsys essay appears to be way too artificial. Just 5 minutes ago radio brought the message that there have been around 15 thousand demonstrators on the streets of Berlin while 20 to 30 thousands have been expected.

Furthermore the organizers of the dems tried too much, The intention was not only to protest against the crisis but also to protest against the coming G-20 and against NATO in general.

Today Germanys biggest newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung wrote about the Germans becoming bored and annoyed towards news slogans which were getting worse with every day. Its true that Germans tend to be too anxious (German Angst), and the German government is doing too little to confront the crisis. Everybody seems to look to Washington, even here in Germany.
So: disapppointment, even frustration about our current government yes, a trend towards extremism: no (there is a relatively strong neo-nazi movement in eastern Germany, but this current has nothing to do with the actual crisis).
Cheers from Transatlantikblog
09:53 AM on 03/28/2009
Let's hope something more appealing than the former "The end justifies the means" approach towards generating wealth will occur.

It's not all about money, money, money and me, me, me, you know ...
outnow
Ban the bomb
07:05 PM on 03/27/2009
I spent a month in Germany in May of last year. My wife is from Munich. When I spoke to Germans, including her relatives, about the impending financial doom, not a single one had any clue about what was coming in the financial sector. These are professional people who are well-traveled and well-educated, some in legal and financial circles. None were even concerned about the Lisbon Treaty, for example.

I read the FT and NYT and surfed the internet on my Blackberry - World Edition to keep up with the slow motion train wreck in progress in the economic global system. Nobody was in the least bit concerned, except for some - a minority to be sure - who are aware of these things and even predicted this exact thing. But the vast majority of the people had absolutely no idea. What was apparent at the time to Germans was the fact that their aging population and zero population growth could not support the retirement benefits of the older generation. One day, beer prices shoot up and that was the first signs of financial distress.

Germans will take to the streets. For example, undocumented workers would be confronted with an armed response. A soccer game will bring thousands to the street drinking and signing all night in the public squares. Americans will only take to the streets if they have no food. Big difference.
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05:15 PM on 03/27/2009
Not only the German people, but all nations engaged in international trade, "have the bloody right to know" exactly how such a monstrously-large SECURITIES FRAUD was perpetrated for so many years.

They also "have the bloody right to know" why the United States Government not only dismantled protective legislation, but quietly passed other legislation to FACILITATE what was going on. (Think about it... if a law actually says, "this is neither 'insurance' nor 'gambling,' and therefore may not be regulated as either"... what was the AUTHOR of that little bit of writing actually afraid of?!)

We all know that, in our heart of hearts, we're schnooks. We're Jacob Marley and Ebenezer. We're the cast of characters in "A Tale of Two Cities" and "Les Miserables," all in one, and we know why those were such thick books. But still, we like to pretend, and when we actually try to trade with one another's nations, we need for those pretenses to more-or-less be true.

And they weren't. In fact they were enormous and deliberate lies. (They still are!)

Yes, Germany in particular has 'been there.' In the 1920's, for instance . . .
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KayWrites
Freedom requires truth
03:17 PM on 03/27/2009
In the 1920's and into the 1930's when the Nazis rose to power in Germany, the country had very little experience with democracy, only having formed their people-run government at the end of World War I for the very first time after centuries of monarchy. This time, the Germans have had decades of experience in democratic government. (Even the East Germans have now experienced freedom for a longer period since the fall of the Berlin Wall than they did between World War I and the rise of the Nazis.) The Americans have had two centuries of democratic experience. As free peoples we have a right, indeed an obligation, to protest when government and institutions (like financial markets) run amok. It hardly means that we will allow fascism to rise again. If anything, we came much closer to that under Bush.
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SaulBloodworth
Author of The Cabal
06:14 PM on 03/27/2009
Yes and now. Germany, under Bismarck already, had a parliament, it was a constitutional Monarchy much like Great Britain, not a dictatorship. At this time, rich people had more votes than poor people, however, the same was the case in the U.S.

As for the "two century experience in Democracy", only white American man have that.

The biggest difference, however, is that the U.S. today does in no way resemble Germany after WWI. There was a hyperinflation, a dollar was millions of marks which wiped out everyone who did not have relatives in the U.S.. Millions of returning soldiers were crippled, more than half a million children starved in the street. The U.S. economy is in a bad shape, but by no means that bad.

In addition, since America only has two parties, due to the winner-takes-all-system, a fascist party here would need to take over one of those two completely to rise to power
outnow
Ban the bomb
07:26 PM on 03/27/2009
Bismarck was an administrative wizard during the industrialization and the mistake Wilhelm made was firing him. Most American do not know history and think of "Bismarck" as a ship filled with bad guys. I visited Regensburg and studied the evolution of the German criminal justice system. The Germans are extremely sophisticated in government and democracy for the most part, and were the seat of the Holy Roman Empire with Electors.

The problem with Americans is that they have not evolved enough since the Revolutionary War in their political thinking compared to their European counterparts - with the exceptions of the fascist and right wing NAZI periods to be sure. But the Europeans have developed much more of a social system based on more progressive ideas. Things seem civilized there and less so here as we fight over gay rights, and abortion, and fundamentalist dogmas in religion and economics.

I love America and hope that we all learn a lesson that we are all in this together in our country. Maybe we will emerge a better people now that market fundamentalism has been tarnished a bit and birth control and reproductive choice issues are seen as being wedge issues. The Germans have learned about war and hyperinflation - either word scares them. They want peace with the Russians.

The middle will hold in America unless there is no food.
12:39 PM on 03/28/2009
Um, Saul? How is it you figure America's not that bad off? We've had wounded soldiers coming home to no jobs and no health care. If you read about the economic crises, you'll find that 1 in 50 kids has no home or food. In a country of 300 million.

"In addition, since America only has two parties, due to the winner-takes-all-system, a fascist party here would need to take over one of those two completely to rise to power."

And just what exactly do you think happened to the Republican party?

And I would say in response to the racist comment about white men having democracy: It's not white men, it's RICH men that have had democracy, and that's questionable too.

I'm a white man, but poor. And as such, I have no more voice, or access to justice than my melanin-enhanced brethren. Racism is racism. And a far worse crime when those who've suffered it, perpetrate it.
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peterg76
Freelance medical transcriptionist
01:15 PM on 03/27/2009
Yes, but the Republicans are no longer in power, so it would seem the worst of the danger has passed, at least for now.

A much better analogy is the French Revolution. The parallels with 1787 "bailout" of the French financial sector are frightening.
02:03 PM on 03/27/2009
"Yes, but the Republicans are no longer in power, so it would seem the worst of the danger has passed, at least for now."

The German fascists came to power by making sure that the Weimar Republic failed. Blame for the depression fell on those who were in power at the time (a perfect scapegoat) and the Nazis fingerpointed their way into power.
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SaulBloodworth
Author of The Cabal
02:50 PM on 03/27/2009
The Weimar Republic failed because it could not master the financial crisis (which included millions of men being jobless). The crisis, however, turned much worse because the victorious Allies in WWI burdened Germany with billions of dollars in reparations payments (something the Republic tried to counter by printing money which led to the hyper-inflation).

The Nazis did basically paint the Social Democrats in the Weimar Republic as clueless and inept. They blamed, however, Wall Street and bankers such as the Warburgs (i.e. Kuhn, Loeb) for the reparations as well as for the Great Depression, including the Madoffs and Greenspans of these times. You may want to read Ron Chernoff on that subject.
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scottowego
05:21 PM on 03/27/2009
I recently finished reading "to the Gallos" and you're right peter. The French Monarchy borrowed so much creditor nations refused to lend any more. The French couldn't even pay their army or subsidize food when crops failed.
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stormgazer
12:35 PM on 03/27/2009
"You should not underestimate the huge feeling of injustice among the people about what is happening, and it will only get worse."

Alternet and the grass roots organization New Way Forward are helping to co-ordinate a nationwide series of protests set to take place on April 11th. Last time I checked, 11 cities were named and thousands of people had signed up.

If it has finally gotten to the point where the ire of overfed and sedated American citizens has been raised and these concerns are being taken to the streets, it may be that this article has appeared just in time.

I haven't waved a placard since my college days. I have yet to decide if I will participate.
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WorkingClass
12:03 PM on 03/27/2009
Mr. Learsy: Please do continue in this vein. Thank you.
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11:52 AM on 03/27/2009
Europeans are taking to the streets, but Americans seem content with shouting insults or making a few empty threats.

Middle class Americans seem willing to accept their new status as serfs to the economic elite.
02:02 PM on 03/27/2009
I don't feel like getting shot or arrested for resisting a plan that needed to be resisted when I was a kid in order to have an effect. Now it is either accept it or total desstruction/collapse. I'm going to eat while I still can.
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SaulBloodworth
Author of The Cabal
06:15 PM on 03/27/2009
Yeah, that's hove the Germans felt under the Nazis.
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ScreenName05
06:34 PM on 03/27/2009
I think you need to reassess your comment. Taking to the street is not a solution, it will likely only make things worse. As we have learned multiple times, marching in the streets rarely solves the real problem. It may cause the downfall of governments, but it rarely causes good governments or banks to replace them. It takes real work to solve real problems not just railing at the sky. Also, I believe that Americans have socially evolved. More people then ever are now able to say they do not belong to a religion (roughly about 50%). More people actually understand economics at some basic level. More people ask why? then any time in history. These are the basics in causing true transformation - being able to see yourself and your environment as they really exist and not through the rose colored lenses of religion or political ideology. For the first time we have a leader who is looking at the real problems and trying to find ways to solve those problems. A majority of Americans support that leader and his plan. This appears to be the emergence of a new world. Things actually look good, but wingnuts and extreme liberals still want to screw them up. So are we really going to let them?
schatsie
banks are more dangerous than standing armies
09:42 PM on 03/27/2009
The French take to the streets regularly to promote income equality and I dare say that the bottom 80% are better off than the bottom 80% here in the USA...Go figure -the top 10% here get 50% of the income, the bottom 90% get 50%....In France the top 20% get 25% and the bottom 80 get 75% and they have 6 weeks of vacation, healthcare, better unemployment AND REAL PENSIONS and education.

Do the numbers, we are joining Mexico and Russia as a failed state. We cannot even pay for healthcare for our soldiers....
09:37 AM on 03/27/2009
Thank you.
09:27 AM on 03/27/2009
If the ruling elite thinks they can Bushit us into swallowing "a few bad apples" excuse, they are mistaken.

Sending Bernie Maddof to jail won't suffice.
CEO's and CFO's are just the tip of the iceberg.
We need the board members who are supposed to be accountable to be investigated and prosecuted too. They were paid for failure too.
Nor can we forget that many who profited off this scam were not the ones who were left holding the bad assets.


The politicians protecting the bankers who paid for their elections are just as guilty.
America needs a Truth Commission that is NOTHING like the 9/11 Commission which was full of insiders protecting their own.

I'm not worried about Germany.
I am deeply concerned that the guilty will be let off the hook... which WOULD justify pitch forks.
02:48 PM on 03/27/2009
For the most part, its all the same people. CEO/CFO of company A is on the board of company B.
05:53 PM on 03/27/2009
Indeed.
Or retired insiders.
08:32 AM on 03/27/2009
A very provocative post that will undoubtedly uncover hidden passions. The inferences are at this stage speculative and may be interpreted as blatant fear-mongering. But perhaps they do not go far enough. What you do not expose is the now very real potential for large-scale social unrest that turns to violence and crime in all the countries of the world that are affected by the emerging Second Great Depression. Military dictatorships and countries that have less respect for human rights are more likely to be able to 'manage' popular uprising.

Countries with well developed democratic and moral ethic, especially those like Germany, that have been through particularly tough times and have a well developed social conscience, will face a new conundrum: will their political leaders be able to sustain their goodwill towards the United States, the country that has lead the World into this mess? The emerging big picture is far more terrifying than you or anyone else on this site is discussing at present. Most posts are still covering inconsequential side shows in and around Wall Street, using ever increasing cutsie vocabulary and side-stepping the real issues.

But there is hope and we should, of course, remain positive... I wonder?
09:40 AM on 03/27/2009
Thank you. I am a student of history also and was equally alarmed at the tone of the article.
Your explanation of the differences are reassuring because people everywhere are totally angry over this crisis. We are all calling for the heads of the people that caused it.
the trick is to get the right ones. Bernie Madoff was pretty simple but sorting the others will take time and diligent effort. Thank you again for clarafication.
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WorkingClass
12:09 PM on 03/27/2009
"The emerging big picture is far more terrifying than you or anyone else on this site is discussing at present."

Bull's Eye!
06:57 AM on 03/27/2009
Part II:

"These comments being generated by rising concern over the potential political impact caused by the steepest downturn in the German economy since the 1920's/30's. I don't think a history lesson is needed here to know where that led."

If you are trying to scare the hell out of the civilized world and infer that the BRD could revert to a NAZI-esque dictatorship, then you are as wrong as wrong can get. The chance that Germany reverts to so a thing are just a big as the chance that the USA could revert to such a thing.

I, as a progressive american jew living in Germany since 1997, expect better journalism than this, especially from progressive journalists. You should be ashamed of yourself for the gaping holes in knowledge that are presented in this article.
09:44 AM on 03/27/2009
I meant my previous comments in reply to kiwijohn to go to you bonncaruso.
Not meaning anything derogatory to kiwijohn, that is. thanks to both of you for your articulate takes on this crisis which I am afraid is just beginning. Hopefully the G20 will accomplish something when they meet next week in London.
11:38 AM on 03/27/2009
I don't think the author's intention was to imply or infer that Germany itself might revert to a Nazi-esque dictatorship. You're living in Germany now, look to the East. Ethnic nationalism is resurgent all over the former Eastern Bloc countries. Right-wing populism. Look even closer to home. For a continent that was so vocallyanti-Bush, for the Germans to elect Merkel, Italy to repeatedly allow Berlusconi his chance of ruining Italy, Sarkozy speaks for himself...I mean, why was Bush so unpopular in Europe yet his ideological cousins gained political support? My assessment is that it results from a "blame immigrants" stance. Whether in Europe or outside, ethnic nationalism is always a danger in periods of intense economic instability.
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SaulBloodworth
Author of The Cabal
02:55 PM on 03/27/2009
Merkel hat 32 percent of the vote, plus, she is not a rightwinger. She was voted for because people thought her predecessor Schroeder could not handle the financial crisis. Also, at this point, it was clear that Germany would never send troups to Iraq anyway. That was the biggest point Schroeder could score.

Berlusconi, that's another story. But the real rightwingers are in Poland or Beloruss.
06:57 AM on 03/27/2009
"This weekend thousands will be taking to the streets in Germany carrying banners emblazoned with "WE WONT PAY FOR YOUR CRISIS". "

Those banners are aimed strictly at german bankers who are doing the same swindling as american bankers. The very fact that german citizens have the same right to protest and express their views openly as citizens in the USA are allowed to do so, is a tribute to Germany's modern day republic, based on democratic principles, just like our republic in the USA. The german constitution is basely almost entire on our own.

"This week past Germany's chancellor (talk of a freighted title)"

Had you informed yourself first, then you would know that the head of state in Germany is the Bundespräsident, Horst Köhler. Merkel is the chancellor, yes, but the reins of power are shared by these two personalities, in order to make sure that 1933 is never, ever repeated. Your use of "freighted title" is really, really inappropriate. For the correct term since 1949 is: Bundeskanzler (or in the case of a woman: Bundeskanzlerin), which literally means "Chancellor of the Union"; before 1945, the term was "Reichskanzler", which literally means "Chancellor of the Kingdom". There is a HUGE difference here, in spite of the fact that both words are loosely translated into english as simply "chancellor". This means that Angela Merkel has a whole different slate of powers (much more restricted) and responsibilities than Adolf Hitler grabbed for himself and the brown mob in 1932.
12:38 PM on 03/27/2009
To bonncaruso:
I am German, born in 48, grown up in the consciense of the crimes that have been commited by parents and grandparents (though hopefully not in person). I am a socialdemocrat since the age of 16.

I thank you, bonncaruso, for your willingness and ability to see the change that has taken place in Germany. Today, this country is one of the most pacific and antifascist places in the world. There is no danger of anything like the 30tees.

To Kojerk::
Please, please don´t mention Berlusconi and Angela Merkel in the same sentence.
Sarkozy is a split personality The husband of Angela Merkel gave her a box with all the movies of Louis de Funes to make her understand this strange (though sometimes likeabel) person.
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SaulBloodworth
Author of The Cabal
02:58 PM on 03/27/2009
The problem for the U.S. is that Germany is too peaceful. Hence no troops for the Middle East. Then again, the same people who are painting today's Germans as Nazis are the ones who had pushed for the U.S. wars in the Middle East, so that's just Kharma.