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Raymond J. Learsy

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Iran Threatens the Use of the 'Oil Weapon'

Posted: 11/21/11 08:50 AM ET

In a recent interview on Al Jazeera television Iran's Oil Minister Rostam Qaesemi, commenting on Iran's Oil exports, brazenly threatened, "In case we are urged to and feel it necessary, we will use it as a political tool." This amidst his comments that currently Iran will seek a "fair price", whatever that means, at the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' next meeting on December 14.

As we know, OPEC is always seeking a "fair price".

But the burnishing aside, the threat made is clear. Iran stands ready to withhold oil exports as a matter of policy if it feels it would be advantageous to its political goals and has now clearly put that option on the table. It has been made under the assumption that the any disruption in Iran's oil exports would, according to Rostam Qaesemi, cause severe problems for the global crude market.

Now that Iran has unsheathed that threat, a riposte is called for by those threatened by its oil policies and other elements of its renegade foreign policy and nuclear undertakings.

Rostam Qaesemi's assessment of the crippling potential of withholding Iranian oil is not only wrong but should be countered with unified policy of embargoing all shipments of Iranian oil, much as European countries have initiated against Syria, consumers of 90 percent of its exports.

As discussed previously in my posts, Iran exports some 2.4 million barrels of oil daily, a quantity of oil that could readily be covered by bringing into production the idle capacity of the Gulf Cooperation Council comprising Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Oman. Saudi Arabia currently has spare capacity of some 4 million barrels/day sitting idle. To counter Iran's threat of using the oil weapon, it would require the cooperation of these national entities with the clear understanding that Iran's export capacity would be replaced with no upside impact on oil prices.

Just recently, with an eye on a belligerent Iran, the Obama Administration announced plans to bolster the American military presence in the Persian Gulf, seeking to expand military ties with the nations of the Gulf Cooperation Council attempting to foster a new "security structure". The United States is already burning in excess of $100 million a day keeping a naval task force in the Gulf.

Bringing pressure or persuasion to end purchases of Iran's oil, in the same spirit as Europe's embargo, could play a major role in diminishing the cash flow to the Iranian mullahs for whom oil revenues are key to their authoritarian hegemony over their fellow citizens. Below please find a recompilation of ranked Iranian oil destinations (thousand bbls/day) in 2005 (not included is an important Iranian oil buyer, India) :

Japan 685,000
China 284,000
South Korea 195,000
Italy 193,000
France 142,000
Netherlands 139,000
Turkey 138,000
South Africa 134,000
Taiwan 125,000

All this while North America is on the precipice of energy independence given the extensive increases in natural gas reserves and new developments toward shale oil and tar sands production. The United States alone, as reported in the Financial Times:

Many analysts expect that in the coming decade the US will leapfrog Saudi Arabia and Russia to become the world's largest producer of liquid hydrocarbons, counting both crude oil and lighter gas liquids such as propane and ethane. The optimism reflects the increasing flow of "tight oil" and gas from shale- rock formations holding reserves unlocked through new extraction technologies.

All this raises the existential question: why should the United States bear the burden of protecting or even involving itself with the far off Gulf Cooperation Council if they are not prepared to assume the weight of their responsibilities? Cooperation that would prove instrumental in a successful, yet non bellicose, confrontation with Iran.

 
 
 

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06:40 PM on 11/23/2011
This articIe perfectly iIIustrate­­­­s the moral bankruptcy of the US war propaganda US mainstream media. Illegal wars of aggression like the war against lraq should have no rewards at all costs. Besides, all oil contracts under foreign occupation are illegal.
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Sharmine Narwani
03:12 PM on 11/23/2011
Yes, and so what? Washington has sought to economically and politically strangle the Islamic Republic for decades now - with no clear provocation in a long time. We have carried out - and are continuing to launch - acts of sabotage against that country, and although we claim otherwise, against its civilians. Imagine - we have drones on three of Iran's borders and our weapons systems in many of its neighboring countries, and we are outraged when Iran objects.

Tit for tat. If we can't handle it, we should bow out gracefully. This is their backyard, not ours. And if we need oil that badly, we can pump it out of our own territory. I for one would like to see someone call us out for our unprecedented arrogance.

To be honest, I am still reeling from the shock of reading colonial-era narratives in 2011, when the Middle East is so obviously trying to dismantle those remaining institutions and purge itself of their puppet dictators. None of our business. And if we say otherwise, then we have lied for decades about those "freedom, democracy and independence" narratives.
06:06 AM on 11/23/2011
So let me get this right. We demand that Europe sanctions Iran by refusing to take their oil. We do not get our oil from them so this sanction does not really affect the US. Does the author of this article thinks that these countries that rely on the Iranian oil will be willing to go that route which will surely result in higher prices at the pump. You lower the amount of supply away and prices go up. it is as simple as that.
02:16 AM on 11/23/2011
And why shouldn't they? Isn't it THEIR oil?
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European1919
I am the Pigmâ’¶n
06:09 AM on 11/23/2011
Read the fine print again. Somewhere in there it says all the oil in the world belongs to the Americans, the land Israel is on belongs to the Israelis and only the USA are allowed to have and use nuclear and biological weapons.
01:53 AM on 11/23/2011
This article iIIustrate­­s perfectly the moral bankruptcy of the US war propaganda US mainstream media. Illegal wars of aggression like the war against Iraq should have no rewards at all costs. Besides, all oil contracts under foreign occupation are illegal.
07:32 PM on 11/22/2011
Why, the unmitigated gall of Iran- threatening to defend itself if attacked! The idea of self-defense just indicates how mad the mullah's must be- and to use their own oil as a weapon- diabolically clever. We don't need proof of nukes or wmd's- Iran's oil (unlike the American and Israeli arsenals) is the real weapon of mass destruction!
Good Lord! Just how far are we going to go to demonize a country which maintains its sovereignty and refuses to bow to Israeli threats and American hegemony?
06:09 PM on 11/22/2011
The US should be promoting oil and gas development in Iran, to enlarge world supplies. What a foolish idea, to try to stop Iran from exporting oil!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
muck-raker
give me liberty or give me death
02:13 PM on 11/22/2011
the author obviously has an ax to grind. First all should know that it is IRAN that is the speaker for OPEC....Iran ships most of its OIL to China and India...two BRICS countries.....the real rub of all of this is that the USA has imposed sanctions on Iran to mean that it would be illegal for China and India to PAY FOR THIS OIL...I have been watching this unfold for over 16 years...the major players of the World today are Britain, USA & Israel...because the latter pays many countries to see things their way much that goes on in the World today is unfair...
...The reason for the sanction is that Iran is suspected of making a bomb...It should be well known that the USA has stolen a computer which they say has all telling evidence of this..If you have been following this it seems it is all a pack of lies...no computer, and no corroboration of findings when asked for by IAEA making the USA non compliance...just spreading fear, backing Iran into the corner while Israel makes REAL BOMBS and prepares for another journey into the unknown.
http://www.chomsky.info/articles/20091105.htm
jhNY
Mercy.
12:30 PM on 11/22/2011
"Iran stands ready to withhold oil exports as a matter of policy if it feels it would be advantageous to its political goals', as we are ready, by leaving 'all options on the table', which include first-strike nuclear attack, to threaten the regime and the citizenry with total annihilation.

Spare me your outrage.
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Alexey Braguine
Author of Kingmaker, a novel
07:55 AM on 11/22/2011
So, where is the beef? Iran cuts exports, Saudis up production. Result ZERO.
Maintaining a fleet in the Gulf = 100 million a day, which could be used to create jobs. A losers' cruise.
08:13 AM on 11/22/2011
well said Alexey . . . definitely a losers cruise
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Talab
I tot i taw a putty tat
12:49 PM on 11/22/2011
The Gas production he's talking about is using the "new technology" of fracking which destroys the areas's water supplies and will turn areas where it is used into no man's lands and deserts where nothing can live . Extracting hydrocarbons from tar sands isn't much better for the environment either
07:42 AM on 11/22/2011
You know, it may be a bit farfetched to believe the US is going to "skyrocket" and exceed all other nations in hydrocarbons in 10 years. Will that mean that every car will run on natural gas?
11:13 AM on 11/22/2011
He's under the delusion that fracking will still be legal 5 years from now.
09:24 AM on 12/01/2011
Ford, Chevrolet, Volkswagen, Fiat, and many other manufacturers have been selling tri-fuel cars in Brazil for many years. Tri-fuel = Gasoline, Natural Gas, or Ethanol.

There is no good reason why we can't have then in the USA too.
07:41 AM on 11/22/2011
Remember we can use the banking weapon.
But they can't use the oil weapon. That would be "unfair"
HansB
The only good certainty is a dead certainty
04:07 AM on 11/22/2011
Speaking of war drums, how's that Saudi ambassador plot coming? Where are the diplomatic offensives we were promised? What happened to the irrefutable evidence that was supposed to convince us foreigners? The only things happening now seem to be (1) a meek UN resolution calling upon everyone to protect diplomats, without mentioning the case, (2) Iranian demands for a US apology, and (3) US silence, apparently in the hope it will just go away.
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Wozzeck
Pearl Bay, Australia
10:32 AM on 11/22/2011
Last time I looked, the has-been used car salesman who allegedly told a DEA informer that Iran wanted the Mexican cartel to kill the Saudi diplomat was under voluntary incarceration. Big threat!
11:14 AM on 11/22/2011
They'll keep throwing BS at the wall until something sticks.
HansB
The only good certainty is a dead certainty
03:40 AM on 11/22/2011
"Now that Iran has unsheathed that threat..."

What the? Unsheathed it? He simply mentions it exists, as if people didn't know, and specifies that in present circumstances it is not necessary or planned to use it. Saying that this is "unsheathing the threat" is like saying the US threatens nuclear annihilation - "unsheathing the threat" - every time someone in government mentions it possesses nuclear weapons. That is, every thirty seconds or so.
01:03 AM on 11/22/2011
Iran has a right to defend itself.
One more neo pushing for a war for which he will never volunteer.