Where is Yogi Berra when we need him? There is Iran going back to its old game plan, threatening to ban oil exports. This time shipments of oil to Europe in its head-to-head with European consumers who are readying their own import embargo on deliveries of Iranian oil, given the standoff on Iran's nuclear program.
In retaliation, Iran's Parliament is now working on a plan to stop Iran's ongoing oil exports to Europe forthwith in retaliation for Europe's embargo scheduled to become effective July 1st.
"Europe will burn in the fire of Iran's oil wells" -- threatening words from Nasser Soudani, a member of the Iranian Parliament's energy committee. Mr. Soudani continued: "All European countries that made Iran the target of their sanctions will not be able to buy one drop of oil from Iran."
The rant has the same tonality as that of Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who treated the world to a similar proclamation in June 2006, then directed mostly at the United States, threatening to curtail energy flows from the region. At the time Khamenei delivered his threats from a podium emblazoned with the words of his predecessor, Ayatollah Khomeini, "America Cannot Do A Damn Thing."
To repeat observations made then that hold true today: the International Energy Agency continues to hold some 4.1 billion barrels of strategic and commercial reserves, including the 700 plus million barrels in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and more than 300 million barrels in commercial reserves in the U.S. as well.
Iran's current exports of oil to Europe are some 425,000 bbls/day or 155 mmbbls/year. A figure easily made available from standby strategic and commercial reserves.
In addition there are the assurances by the Gulf oil producers that they will make up the Iranian shortfall. Saudi Arabia, while producing 9.8 million bbls/day currently, has a spare production capacity of 2 million bbls/day on standby as Saudi Arabia's Oil Minister was quoted on CNN: "We can easily get up to 11.8 million bbls a day, almost immediately, in a few days", and one can assume that another up to a million barrels can be brought on stream in short order.
Iran's total daily export loadings are some 2,000,000 bbls/day plus. What with strategic and commercial reserves in place, and with the significant additional production capability available from the Gulf Oil States (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, U.A.E., etc) one can say:
Sorry Yogi, this time "It IS over BEFORE its over"
Follow Raymond J. Learsy on Twitter: www.twitter.com/raymondLearsy
Tom Engelhardt: Iranian Aircraft Carriers in the Gulf of Mexico
http://waterpoweredcar.com/herman.html#herman
The author sidesteps a lot of this and instead focuses on "but we have oil reserves that can be used, so there"... (picture a 10 yr. old sulking). Problem is, even if the IEA or US reserves were used (most probably Saudi?), the EU refineries using Iran oil are specifically designed for Iran's particular heavy sour crude. It would take months to sort.
Let's just see it for what it is-- the EU smugly made threats and were beaten to the punch; and now have to slap their foreheads trying to save face. It's cringe-worthy indeed.
Well, iIt still would be mighty nice to see what a few drones could do.
The US has painted itself into a corner, it's economy is mostly based on the petrodollar and oil based energy. Solar power was ready 50 years ago. But there's too many people making too much money on oil for any other alternative to be made viable. The US has 5% of earth's population and it uses 25% of all energy- mostly from oil. So good luck trying to turn that gargantuan ship around.
Publicly recognise fellow UN member state Israel. Exchange ambassadors. Openly declare a cessation of rhetoric and hostility. Agree to disagree.
Iran--I DARE you.
Yes in the end Iran will sell their oil to someone (or suffer revolution when the government can no longer use its oil profits to pay for their domestic social programs), but this will likely be China who will take it on the cheap and profit. If this ban causes the price of oil to rise to from $100 to $150, but Iran sells its oil to China for $100 (a 33% discount), who wins?
The countries who can't buy from Iran will buy from someone else.
The countries who do buy from Iran won't be buying from someone else, so the someone elses will have oil to sell to the countries who don't buy from Iran.
Unless Iran refuses to sell to anybody, which would make the other oil producing countries very happy with their extra profits and severly damage Iran's economy.
So that the oil can be used here? Or wherever the highest bidder is?
really? so US, Europe are threatening a country with military, economic blackmail thanks to Israel as neither US nor Europe give a hoot about Iran's ZERO nuke....do you still think we are in print media age where people are just reading and reacting what is being shoved to them
More importantly, what are the commercial upsides in regime-changing Iran before they get nukes?
Narrow powerful interests enjoyed an immense upside during the mortgage bubble, which was destined to bust - and they never had a downside during the bust. Likewise, a preemptive war that crashes the Western economy may not impact narrow powerful interests who stand to enjoy immense upsides from a new regime in Iran.
Iraq 2