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Raymond J. Learsy

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A Rick Perry Presidency? Get Ready for the Next Gas Spike

Posted: 09/06/11 07:38 AM ET

Governor Perry of Texas has loudly proclaimed that his ten-gallon hat is in the ring, running for president of the United States. What does that entail and -- should he succeed -- what can we expect? Certainly, a high degree of restraint to government spending in spite of the current economic downturn and a significant modification in myriad government programs. But most worrisome for those of us who don't live in Texas and are not engaged in the oil business is the prospect of staggeringly higher gasoline prices. By what right do I make this prediction? Let me review the extraordinary impact other highly elected officials from Texas have had on the escalation, public perception, and formation of oil prices to the massive detriment of the nation's economy, its national security, and its environmental well-being.

The players are manifold, but let me cite among the most egregious the likes of Texas Representative Joe L. Barton, who in 2006, as Chairman of the powerful Committee on Energy and Commerce, with the price of oil already at over $65/bbl, some $40 bbl higher than at the beginning of the George W. Bush presidency in 2001 (at U.S. consumption of some 20 million barrels a day that is a transfer of $800 million, day after day, out of the pockets of American consumers into the pockets of oil interests here and abroad) would instruct us that "America runs on energy that is abundant and is affordable at prices we can pay." He thereby became a Texas Oil Price Cheerleader, tossing up verbal pom-poms as his team wended its way to all time high oil prices reaching $147/bbl barely two years down the road.

You can bet while the price of oil was escalating by leaps and bounds to levels which helped precipitate the financial crisis of 2008, his Committee was asleep at the switch, or worse. The reaction to his comments did not abate in the slightest way his enthusiasm for glossing over the industry's most egregious behavior. Texas Congressman Barton outdid even himself in 2010 by calling for a public apology to BP, categorizing BP's payout of damages for having caused the massive Gulf Coast oil disaster in the following terms: "I think it is a tragedy of the first proportion that a private corporation can be subjected to what I would characterize as a shakedown -- in this case a $20 billion shakedown."

But then again Barton had powerful Texas forbears who left deep boot prints in the prairie for him to follow. There was one George H.W. Bush, erstwhile Representative of Texas' 7th Congressional District, who would make his mark in higher positions of government. As a professional oil man who had founded his own oil company Bush ('41') never left his ties to the oil industry and those with kindred interests -- like his friends the Saudis -- far behind.

Speaking of the Saudis, there was this Texas oil moment back in 1986 which has literally cost us, the nation and its well-being, trillions of dollars, and we are still paying the price. In April 1986 with the price of oil at $9.75/bbl providing inexpensive gasoline and a boost to the economy one George H. W. Bush, then Vice President and beneficiary of significant support from the oil industry, was able almost single-handedly to reverse the Reagan administration's steadfast commitment to unfettered market forces of supply and demand, without government interference, as the determinant of the price of goods and services. He accomplished this by arranging a visit to Saudi Arabia to meet with King Fahd in order to discuss first and foremost the manipulation of the price of oil. George H.W. Bush, using his title and position as Vice President of the United States, responded to the pleas of the oil patch to get Saudi Arabia to hold back production in order to bring about a significant increase in the price of oil. It was an opportunistic payback to his political base and oil industry cohorts, at enormous cost to the rest of the nation.

"My plea will be for stability in the marketplace" were his parting words.

Bush met with King Fahd and convinced him that it would be in Saudi Arabia's interest to bring discipline to the then production policies of the Organization of Exporting Countries (OPEC), to restrict production of oil in order to achieve meaningful increases in its price. Saudi Arabia, having by far the largest production capability of any of the OPEC countries, and the largest margin of spare capacity, was in a position to virtually impose this new policy on their fellow OPEC members. And so they did. In less than a year the price of crude shot up from just under $10 a barrel to over $17/bbl. In Texas and the oil patch, George W. Bush was a hero. And we continue to pay the price to this day.

What transpired was to become the authorized exploitation of the American and world consumers of oil for decades to come, reaching its apogee in June 2008 when oil ascended to $147/bbl under President George W. Bush ('43') who together with his anointed Vice President Dick Cheney, oilman, former Chairman and CEO of Halliburton, the giant oil services company and government contractor as well as former Congressman from that other energy rich state, Wyoming, oversaw the march on high of gas prices flirting with $5.00 a gallon; thereby, among a multitude of other drawbacks, helping to crash the U.S. housing market and bring about the financial implosion of 2008 (those many spec and leveraged homes in the suburbs reachable only by automobile without access to public transportation, along with the prospect of over $5/gallon gasoline, suddenly and grievously lost their appeal and dangerously, their value).

For Saudi Arabia something far more significant took place far beyond the additional billions they would be cashing in momentarily from higher oil prices. Through George W. Bush's intercession as the sitting American Vice President they received the implicit approval of restraining production to increase prices. Whatever hesitancy the Saudis or OPEC had in pushing the price of oil too hard by withholding output was no longer on the table. With America's blessing the sky became the limit.

And so Texas prospered while woolen pajamas became all the rage in Maine, if people could still afford them after paying their heating bills and their gas bills to get to work. Family budgets across America were devastated as the heavy air of economic despondency descended over the land.

 
 
 

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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
muzpuf
Democrat who votes Republican
08:23 PM on 09/07/2011
Gasp and I hear he also kicks fluffy bunnies
07:33 PM on 09/07/2011
Well it looks like thier are gonna be more oil spills in the near future when perry is president.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
lawyerfan
02:46 PM on 09/07/2011
The obvious solution is to vote for Michele Bachmann. She promised $2.00 gasoline, and of course she will make it happen if elected.
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blarneydude
I can handle the truth. Now let's talk about you.
03:59 PM on 09/07/2011
She will also send Biblical plagues to all who oppose her, she and God are that tight.

If she told me that black was black, I'd hire three people to check it.
01:58 PM on 09/07/2011
An excerpt from Raymond J. Learsy's post, "there was this Texas oil moment back in 1986 which has literally cost us, the nation and its well being, trillions of dollars since, and we are still paying the price.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
luvbeingright
Tolerating the Intolerant
10:18 AM on 09/07/2011
With Perry or Romney as president Drill Baby Drill will be official US policy and oil and gas prices will plummet.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
lawyerfan
02:50 PM on 09/07/2011
The mere fact that we engage in massive drilling won't mean that gas prices will plummet. There are a lot of factors other than supply and demand that control the price of gasoline.
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blarneydude
I can handle the truth. Now let's talk about you.
03:57 PM on 09/07/2011
Nope. The unrestricted drilling will drive UP oil prices, which are untethered to supply and demand.

Rick's gonna make sure his boys make out like bandits. "All the market will bear" will be the watchword. As long as we drive cars don't expect prices to dip much below current levels, unless the cars stop using petroleum products. We will put the gas hoses up our SunNotShinyPlaces, the way we always have.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
beckjr2000
been there done that & tired of it
09:39 AM on 09/07/2011
Earl you need to express yourself more clearly. There was no drilling during the War. Even these conspiracy theory articles back that up. "Fifteen years later, after North and South Viet Nam were unified and all the dust settled and most people had forgotten about the "war," the Vietnamese decided they needed some cash and would allow offshore oil exploration. They divided up their coastal area into many oil lots and let foreign companies bid on the lots, with the proviso that Viet Nam got a cut of the action."
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Adriana231
08:39 AM on 09/07/2011
This train has already jumped the track. The Saudis have finally figured out that we cannot do without what they provide, and it is in their strategic interest to damage the US economy (a broke US cannot invade more countries in their sphere of influence). Rick Perry, Barak Obama or Mickey Mouse being President cannot change this situation now.

Americans, on the other hand, CAN change the situation. Install solar panels/geothermal/wind. Even natural gas is better. Buy an electric car (leaf, tesla, volt or even a prius). Do EVERYTHING YOU CAN to reduce the amount of oil you use...small steps by everyone will lead up to huge surplus inventory. Then we can tell Exon, the Saudis and the oil barons just what they can do with all that useless crud.
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flamflurm
The name's Flurm. Flam Flurm.
07:52 AM on 09/07/2011
Obama is the Saudis' favorite US president. Give it a rest.
justhinking
I'll listen if you will
11:26 AM on 09/07/2011
I can see facts are not part of your thinking process. It is because of people like you that we are in the problem we have today.
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flamflurm
The name's Flurm. Flam Flurm.
11:32 AM on 09/07/2011
Yeah. It's got nothing to do with the fact that you and yours elected an incompetent.
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DickGranite
It's Obama's fault now
06:04 AM on 09/07/2011
So the theory is oil prices will rise because ...Rick Perry is from Texas? Gee, wasn't Al Capone from Chicago? How could you vote for Obama knowing that? Obama wanted higher gas prices and we've sure got them. Why complain about theoretically higher prices under a Rick Perry?
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flamflurm
The name's Flurm. Flam Flurm.
07:52 AM on 09/07/2011
You are bothering with logic again...
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
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MCTSilverlakeCA
retired Sr Litigation Insurance Fraud Manager
05:36 AM on 09/07/2011
I see someone else has been looking further down the road of a potential Perry Presidency than the "Live for the Glories of Yesterday" GOP supporters. I predict for his inaugural speech if god forbid he gets into Office - will be the opening statement - "My Fellow Americans, this Country has for too long been denied the luxuries for the Wealthy Oil Company Executives that they have richly deserved, therefore I am announcing the immediate price raise of the gasoline tax to $1,00 a gallon so that they can take vacations in their private aircraft and foreign imported luxury cars, and the rest of you will have to either pony up- or ride the train and other public transit. "
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
05:08 AM on 09/07/2011
As many experts have said for the last 8-10 months, as on CNBC or CNN, there has been NO 30%+ increase in demand or vice versa with supply.

So even conservative Exxon admits this is greedy speculation !
Otherwise gas would be around $ 3 a gallon in most of the US !

Obama finally released a little of the Strategic reserves about 8 weeks
ago, but he needs to SHOCK the spec's with another 2-3 times, and ASAP !
[ it also tests the SR system, which should be done occasionally ]

The economy was impoving but high gas hurts it in many ways, especially
the struggling middle class, so they cut back on spending and it spreads
all though the economy. Sell some SR oil now, at high prices, and buy it
back when lower in the winter, making the US govt some big money,
and helping the economy within a few weeks !

It's a Win-Win.....call the media, White House, Congress....this is simple,
easy, and highly effective.
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MCTSilverlakeCA
retired Sr Litigation Insurance Fraud Manager
05:38 AM on 09/07/2011
Um in So. California gas is presently selling at $ 3.87 a gallon for regular unleaded.
08:46 AM on 09/07/2011
Wake up and smell the coffee. Another 2 or 3 releases of the strategic reserves will drain the reserve and have little to no effect on prices but will take away a strategic reserve set up to protect the US in dire times. It was never set up to help control prices or be used as a relection tool for Obama.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
lawyerfan
02:54 PM on 09/07/2011
So how do you define dire times? Does unemployment have to reach 20%? Do gas prices have to reach $5 a gallon? Do we have to be attacked by Iran?
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12:12 AM on 09/08/2011
You are completely wrong ! Apparently did not even research it, as the first sale was tiny, and I do not think more than another 4-8% of the SR would be necessary to hurt the spec's. Not 40-60%, 4-6% !
Furthermore we have plenty of sources if "dire" times, from the US, Canada, Mexico, etc. etc.......this is not about Obama, it's about saving the middle class and hurting the greedy speculators.
PS !!.....Your pal Bush sold off plenty simply to bring in billions and hide some of his wild spending ! That is a FACT !
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
HellBank
Curve: The loveliest distance between two points.
04:53 AM on 09/07/2011
Somehow I think that under Perry, the rising price of gas would be the least of our problems.
02:23 AM on 09/07/2011
The problems of high gas prices started in winter of 1972/73 when the price I paid jumped from about $0.20 per gallon to around $0.53 per gallon. These were times when my take home salary of US$ 1200/= per month afforded pretty good living standard. My monthly gas bill never exceeded $ 50/= , telephone $ 19/=, electricity around $ 20/= and monthly grocery for family of 3 around $ 120/=. Milk was $ 1/= per gallon and a six pack of pop / beer a mere $0.60. Large Wonderbread was only $ 0.59. Lean ground beef was just $ 2.00 a pound. Bought brand spanking new Pontiac Lemans off the showroom floor for $ 3000/= without any trade in.

Compare that to today's earnings and prices and one would realise what a major negative impact the economy has suffered. It only going to get worse.
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05:12 AM on 09/07/2011
yup.....it's NUTS how bad it's gotten......it was not too hard to get a good factory job, have overtime at 1.5 or 2 X hourly wage, money in bank, and drive all you wanted [ yes, even wasting it unfortunately ].....

But Big Business, Wall St., the greedy elite, maybe didn't like a strong middle class [ and unions that helped it ] and has been chipping at it for decades, trying to turn it against itself and it's own interests.....NUTS !
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12:10 AM on 09/07/2011
"woolen pajamas became all the rage in Maine, if people could still afford them"

Became the rage in the midst of poverty? Sounds like rap CD's in Harlem, or bingo on the res. What trash!
11:33 PM on 09/06/2011
In case you wondered.