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Raymond J. Learsy

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Saudi Arabia's Appropriate Response to Iran's Assassination Plot

Posted: 10/16/11 10:15 AM ET

Well no it hasn't happened yet. This in spite Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal's declaration that Saudi Arabia would "strongly respond" to an act that "reflects the policies of Iran". The act would be "within the framework of international law which Iran has violated." The plot comes at a time of rising tension between the Saudis and the Iranians as the Middle East shakes under the turmoil of the 'Arab Spring.'

While President Obama is declaring that Iran "must pay the price" the threat of additional sanctions against a swathe of industries/services doing business with Iran from banks, insurance companies, airline fuel suppliers, on and on, would have only minimal impact given the ineffectiveness of current sanctions to rein in Iranian transgressions.

The one singular arrow remaining other than war in the quiver of those societies, whether the United States, Saudi Arabia, neighboring nations of the Gulf, the Middle East extending to Europe within the sights and ambitions of Iran's bellicose policies soon to be enhanced with nuclear armaments (an issue of ever heightening concern as reported in today's New York Times, "To Isolate Iran, U.S. Presses Inspectors on Nuclear Data") is a total embargo on Iran's oil exports. 65% of Iranian revenues are derived from oil profits, funds that first go to financing the structure of Iran's oppressive government and paying the hoods of the Quds Force of Iran's Revolutionary Guard.

Rather than waiting for the United States government to take the lead would it not be salutary for this once to have Saudi Arabia take the initiative and formulate policy? Iran exports some 2.4 million barrels of oil a day. Well and good. Their top ten buyers of Iranian Crude Oil:

Rank Reporting Country 2005 - Destinations (Thousand bbl/d)

Japan 685,000

China 284,000

South Korea 195,000

Italy 193,000

France 142,000

Netherlands 139,000

Turkey 138,000

South Africa 134,000

Taiwan 125,000

Greece 88,000

Saudi Arabia loads out between 8 and 9 million barrels/day probably closer to 8 million. Their production capacity is 12.5 million/day and they have had tentative plans to increase production capability to 15 million/day.

A simple but significantly meaningful declaration by Saudi Arabia that they would undertake to supply world customers with whatever shortfall resulted from an embargo on Iranian oil. That the oil would be supplied in a manner that would cause no disruption of oil supply and would have no impact on the direction of oil prices.

That the pledge would hold fast until there is a meaningful change of government in Iran whose malign policies would desist and a government that would respect and would be in full compliance with the directives of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

That an oil embargo would be effective is validated by Syria's current travails. "Sanctions Pose Growing Threat to Syria's Assad" emblazoned a New York Times headline that the "Syrian economy is buckling under pressure by the West". A significant tool is the total embargo of Syrian oil exports by Syria's main customer base, Western Europe. Though small by comparison to those of Iran's (100,000 bbls/day vs Iran's 2.4 million bbls/day) it underlines how effective an oil embargo can be.

With Saudi Arabia taking a leadership role in this manner the United States and those other nations cognizant and responsive to the grave dangers posed by Iran's belligerency, not to speak of the Iranian regimes misrule and crushing of the Iranian people's liberties, a meaningful riposte could for once be structured without a call to arms.

 
 
 

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10:47 AM on 10/18/2011
good ideas. But it still does not mean the US should take any actions off the table here. this was a plot to kill the Saudi Ambassador - along with numerous Americans on American soil. and that is not acceptably,,
05:52 AM on 10/18/2011
This is one scenario that might work, and Saudi Arabia can increase their oil production to cover for any
short supply, but i would flavor this idea with air strike to their Nuclear plant, which will send a signal
that "don’t waste your money on evil plans, use it on Iranian people, you know don't be stupid"
Iran will not dare to retaliate with their 1960's Soviet junk.
10:48 AM on 10/18/2011
good idea. that lets them know that if you plan to attack us and get caught the price is very high...
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John Derrick
12:38 AM on 10/18/2011
Saudi Arabia's obligation of oil substitution for Iranian customers is a worthy decision and is to be commended as it demonstrates an alternative to war. Granted this may not work with all elements (such as Al Quida).
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Baghooli
Immortals!
07:52 PM on 10/17/2011
Saudi crude oil to replace Iran's crude oil is a ridicules idea, one have to consider huge amount of money and time that's required to modify refineries in order for them to be able to handle Saudi crude oil blends/types, also those nation's will have to take huge risk on stability of Saudi's regime in order to make those costly and time consuming modifications with good chance of having to redo those modifications again if Saudi's can't keep up with supplying them for any reason, add in top of that a disaster which will follow if Iran is deprive from funds to maintain and add more oil wells which entails no available crude oil from Saudi's and specially Iran even if she wanted to! Beside Iran had survive under harsher sanctions and constant attacks by Iraq military and her world wide supporters in 1980's with small fraction of her current oil production!
No one should be surprise if tomorrow someone comes up with idea of sanctioning Iran detergent and disinfection products in order for Iranians masses to get fed up and topple their government because of fleas and ticks, come-on!
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bad spelling grammar
Help save Big Cats from extinction!
04:27 PM on 10/17/2011
The special interest which govern the US will do/ pay anything to halt Iran’s economy and military expansion because they clearly don’t want anyone telling them what to do in that region of the world. IF and when the new sanctions on Iran come in place the country is going to suffer a lot. Cutting of their central bank will drastically affect their economy and possibly could hurt the country more than war. Clearly special interests in our country do not favor Iran at the moment, the same way they didn’t favor Iraq and Afghanistan (which really had nothing to do with 9/11 directly) but we went ahead and attack two sovereign countries. I personally don’t think the US wants another war but clearly they know they can hurt Iran in many other ways, via sanctions. The only hope is that when the Iranian elections arise, a new US friendly democratically elected leader will come into power and can reduce the tension with Iran and the US. Unfortunately the only way to reduce tension between the two countries is if Iran just does whatever the US asks, which in no way is a benefit for Iran. So clearly the US is once again having the “my way or the highway” attitude which why the rest of the world looks down upon us in the first place.
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03:02 PM on 10/17/2011
There is one "slight" problem with this scenario ...

All production data indicates that Saudi Arabia is either at or near their peak oil production.

That is, they have no "spare oil" to sell in place of Iran.

The statement ... "Their production capacity is 12.5 million/day and they have had tentative plans to increase production capability to 15 million/day" is a complete myth.
ThatsTheTheWayItIs
religion, ideology, partisanship are delusional
02:13 PM on 10/17/2011
Oil is real estate, not a product. When their oil gone the Saudis will have nothing.
You have the right to ask any price for your property. Saudis have same right with their oil.
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EllaMai
Non-violent complainer. From North of the border.
02:06 PM on 10/17/2011
Is it ironic that the U.S. is expected to protect the nation that supports the Taliban, contributed the most 9/11 hijackers, and harboured OBL for years?

With "friends" like those....
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bad spelling grammar
Help save Big Cats from extinction!
04:28 PM on 10/17/2011
Wait a second your making sense, we can’t allow you to do that and must suppress your voice through more negative propaganda.
11:56 AM on 10/18/2011
it is ironic - but explainable. we are tired to the world oil market. nearly 1/2 the worlds oil is in the ME and any threat to the world supply is a direct threat to our economy and national security.

Add to the the fact that we are just too damn stupid to exploit all our domestic options and you see the real problem.
01:58 PM on 10/17/2011
The appropriate Saudi response was-
A used car salesman? Followed by a laugh.

Writing as if this plot was in any way valid is misleading readers.

Siding with radical Saudi Arabia on anything is continuing the misguided status quo.

Stating that Iran will shortly have nuclear weapons without any factual substantiation is neocon opinion and again misleading.
10:56 AM on 10/17/2011
Before we start falling in line like sheep accepting this story as fact we should remember how many wars we have started using phony incidents and deliberately twisted facts. We know that there are many neocons in this administration who want to attack Iran in order to help Israel no mattter what the consequences could be for the national security of the United States. We should remain skeptical at the very least.
10:42 AM on 10/17/2011
It is amazing that some people are going overboard with the fabricated US plot without an iota of credible evidence. How can any sane and unbiased person accept a fabricated US plot?
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den1953
The National Inquire of Politics the GOP!
09:47 AM on 10/17/2011
Let me guess Saudi Arabia needs a few hundred drones?
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den1953
The National Inquire of Politics the GOP!
09:46 AM on 10/17/2011
Flip a coin is this all about a power struggle or is it a religious war between the Muslim Sects?
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MarcEdward
likes all cats more than most people
08:55 AM on 10/17/2011
I think we all know what "Saudi Leadership" means.
Let's look at a fine past example of "Saudis leading" - once the USA had occupied Iraq, insurgents from outside flooded into Iraq to kill Iraqi Shia (and American soldiers) - from SAUDI ARABIA. 
The Taliban and other extremists Sunni that murder Shia in Afghanistan and Pakistan - they are taught in SAUDI FUNDED SCHOOLS. 
Thanks - BUT NO THANKS - the last thing the world needs is more "Saudi Leadership".
strangiato
Ha Ha...Charade You Are
09:09 AM on 10/17/2011
Spot on as usual Marc. Members like you should force Huffpo to consider a new ranking scheme - "bestest friend".... : )

It looks like the same old "divide and conquer" tactics are once again at work in the strategic scheming, ahem.......I mean, strategic planning rooms in "high" places within the US and Israel. The fact that that policy blew up in their face in Iraq hasn't stopped them. They just think they didn't push hard enough to get it to really work. As we all know, this is nothing new. The United States supplied arms to both sides of the Iran/Iraq war and had a strong hand in emboldening Hussein to attack Iran in the first place.
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fairwayhill
1948 Palestine belongs to the Palestinians
08:19 AM on 10/17/2011
It wiII be difficuIt, if not impossibIe for the Saudi government to subscribe to an oiI embargo against Iran in the terms suggested by this articIe. First, the Saudi peopIe know the enemy is not Iran, but the US / israeIis. Second, they wiII have to confront the rest of OPEC countries who understand that the common enemy is the US / israeIis. Third, they wiII have to confront the rest of the Arab League and most of the worId. Saudi Arabia wiII be isoIated in the region, and seen as a pariah compIicit with the US / israeIis. From then on there wiII be no ending to the consequenc­­es the US supported Saudi dictatorsh­­ip regime wiII have to confront with no one at hand wiIIing to heIp them. In the end the regime wiII faII as soon as everybody reaIizes that the regime has betrayed aII its muslim friends and neighbors to benefit the US / israeIis.
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courtb
09:59 AM on 10/17/2011
I disagree with everything you say. A lot of people on the streets of the Arab world are unimpressed with Iran right now. Have you so quickly forgotten the polls that have shown support for Iran in Arab countries drastically dropping this past summer, especially in Saudi Arabia?
10:37 AM on 10/17/2011
You are wrong. Majority of the people in the Arab world do not trust the US and they despise Israel. Regardng polls, which polls? Also, let them go back to Egypt and find out the reason for the surge in anti America and anti Israel.
01:52 PM on 10/17/2011
So what are you saying? Let's attack Iran because their poll ratings are low? If that was the case we should have attacked our own congress, Israel and many other governments long time ago.

Polls.........that ia an absolute joke. Who took those polls. CNN/Fox or some other "unbiased" media outlet. Please.......We are talking about a serious matter.