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Raymond J. Learsy

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The Price of Oil: Saudi Hypocrisy, Our Gullibility

Posted: 03/30/2012 4:04 am

One is compelled to pull out that old chestnut, "There he goes again." The face of Saudi oil, and de facto senior voice of the OPEC cartel, Saudi Oil Minister Ali Naimi entertained us to one of his seminal dissertations, expounding on Saudi Arabia's concerns for the well being of all mankind.

Stating the case clearly, that Saudi Arabia "... remains the world's largest producer and the country with the largest proven reserves, so it has a responsibility to do what it can to mitigate prices." No argument here.

Yet that bit of wisdom is prefaced by the oldest of canards, "Needless to say Saudi Arabia does not control the price: it sells its crude according to international prices." A truly bizarre declaration coming from the leading protagonist of the cartel, OPEC, whose primary function is to limit the supply of oil to world markets to control, and within the limits of the world's tolerance, to maximize the price of crude oil in the market place. Clearly their efforts have been so successful that the limits of tolerance have now been reached and letting off a little steam has become part of the ritual.

The ritual is encapsulated in the mantra repeated in Mr. Ali Naimi's pronouncement: "The bottom line is that Saudi Arabia would like to see a lower price . It would like to see a fair and reasonable price, that will not hurt the economic recovery, especially in emerging and developing countries...". A statement that automatically elicits our well inculcated and programmed hosannas whenever such mumblings come out of Riyadh.

The trouble is we have heard this babble before and now again. In December of 2008, with oil prices teetering below $40 a barrel and gasoline prices accordingly restrained, our now benevolent Saudi Oil Minister Al Naimi would pontificate, after King Abdullah himself had ventured that $75/bbl was a fair and reasonable price, enlightening us, "You must understand that the purpose of the $75 price is for a much more noble cause. You need every producer to produce, and marginal producers cannot produce at $40 a barrel." This coming from a producer whose "all inclusive" production costs veer toward "$1.50/bbl" or possibly less according to a pronouncement made by none other than Mr. Ali Naimi at the Houston Oil Forum in November 1999.

Well, several months after the December 2008 statement giving us the parameters of oil price 'nobility' the price touched and quickly breached Mr. Al Naimi's $75/bbl. As it went shooting on to $100/bbl and well beyond with barely a word of discomfiture coming from OPEC's or the Saudi Oil Ministry's headquarters.

As the price veered to $100 and higher the International Energy Agency had the presumption to criticize OPEC for holding back production only to be roundly reprimanded by OPEC's the Secretary General El-Badri blaming high prices on speculation and "technical means", whatever that means.

Speaking of speculation -- or worse, manipulation -- and given the lack of transparency in the trading of oil futures in the world's commodity markets, it would be interesting to hear from Mr. Ali Naimi whether the Saudi Oil Ministry, Aramco, the Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund or whatever Saudi or OPEC designees are currently holding oil futures contracts and to what purpose. Certainly not to lower the price of oil?

Anyway, thank you Mr. Ali Naimi. Your sincerity and good deeds are appreciated.

 
 
 

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12:17 AM on 04/02/2012
Friends;
I am not entirely certain, but I believe that it is a BIG LIE which BIG OIL has told to the world for many decades, that Saudi Arabia has the largest oil reserves on the planet. I have read in several sources that IRAQ has more oil, possibly as much as two to four times as much as the Saudis!! Please refer to excellent and thoroughly researched and entertaingly written book:... "Armed Madhouse", by superb investigative reporter Greg Palast. In one section of this book, Palast explains the REAL REASON for the 2003 invasion of IRAQ by the U.S., Great Britain, and the "Coalition"...(read GULLIBLE??) armed forces.... It was mostly ( and this is very ugly, folks, in it's psychopathic ruthlessness...brace yourselves)... TO CONTROL IRAQ'S OIL so as to NOT PUMP IT OUT very fast,( as BIG OIL has been doing since at least the 1940's)...Because there is so much oil there ( of high quality and very close to the surface) that developing it rapidly and pumping it out quickly would lead to a world oversupply short term; thus causing world oil prices to COLLAPSE!!
Anyway, I have read the book several times ;and while there is almost always many causes involved in nearly every complicated human undertaking...(morbid humor intended!); I believe that Greg Palast has hit the nail on the head with his thorough analysis of the IRAQ invasion.

Thanks for Listening
Peace and Love
Loudmouth Karaoke Brad
05:17 PM on 04/01/2012
I do believe he was elected/appointed to this position.Are we not lucky? He is also from Iran so I really wonder if he has the US/s interest at heart....
07:08 PM on 03/31/2012
So much money, power, corruption, and treasonous activity, so human...

I wonder about the numbers. Adding up military costs associated with protecting the oil pipeline (including lifetime medical veteran care, etc), medical costs associated with a hydrocarbon economy, tax breaks and subsidies for big oil... gotta be a huge number. And then, one can't forget the billions upon billions poured into the nuclear industry, however much that adds up to.

Point being, if the same amount had been spent on developing renewables, we would be so much better off. Unfortunately, we are governed by people who are motivated by short term gains and personal greed. Over 30 years ago, President Carter famously declared the energy crisis to be the moral equivalent of war. That may or may not be true, but in terms of lives ruined and money wasted, it's a war we're still waging, and thanks to leaders without vision, one that we're losing.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
muck-raker
give me liberty or give me death
07:37 PM on 04/01/2012
Great post "Grouch" here is the other boondogle that no one wants to talk about...........

........CORN ETHANOL.......to start with the scam we subsidize farmers to grow CORN...then we pay the refiners .51 for every gallon they mix this junk in our gasoline...the end result it produces MORE Pollution less mileage and power...
AND they just got an approval to raise the content to 15%....what a joke

the story > http://zfacts.com/node/243
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TommoB
Restore sanity! Add Haldol to fracking fluid...
06:03 PM on 03/31/2012
Oil is a wasting resource. Barring we learn to create petrochemicals from algae, it will all sell sooner or later. The less the producers sell, the higher the price and the more the profit over time. Neither I nor (I expect) you would sell more than needed to support current needs and strategies were we in the Saudi's position.

We (Americans) should quit acting like spoiled children every time gasoline rises to $50 per tank and find alternatives. Sell your Pickup or SUV and become part of the solution. Or whine about gas prices and attack the administration for trying alternatives.
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05:12 PM on 03/31/2012
You cannot mock Saudi Arabia for acting in its own interest in a free market. Limiting producton to lengthen out resources while maximizing price is fair play. After all they do own their resources. We need to pursue gas production and ever higher petroleum use efficiencies. Whining and playing the victim is not productive and is culturally demeaning.
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RagMag
still living a Ragtime Life
05:06 PM on 03/31/2012
treating us to, or entertaining us with... definitely not “entertaining us to”

bad grammar won’t solve the oil crisis
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Gupdiver
We are in a period of Ineptocracy!
04:12 PM on 03/31/2012
President Obama should have pressed America to start rapidly switching to natural gas for our vehicles, all the Saudis are doing is looking out for themselves. The Saudis know that once oil get over $100 and gasoline is over $4/gallon then alternative sources become within economic reach. The Saudis enjoy the transfer of wealth we provide. Fortunately big businesses are switching their fleets to natural gas however the infrastructure isn't there for the average consumer yet. I'd rather buy American gas then foreign oil.
08:49 PM on 03/31/2012
The Saudis enjoy the transfer of wealth we provide.
-----------------------------------
And we waste the oil they provide. Better borrow more form the Chinese. And so the world goes round. For now. But not for much longer.
04:22 AM on 04/01/2012
That's poor thinking based on the false idea that there is so much natural gas that the price will not rise when demand rises. Economics theory and markets say otherwise. Peak gas is already on the horizon without additional demand from natural gas replacing oil. With the coupling, peak gas will follow peak oil within little more than a decade or two, which is no more than a couple of generations of cars.
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Gupdiver
We are in a period of Ineptocracy!
09:47 PM on 04/01/2012
Would you rather pay for foreign oil or pay Americans for natural gas?
02:20 PM on 03/31/2012
Saudi Arabia is just looking out for its best interests. Much more troubling is the numbers games being played over how much oil is actually left in the world to bring to market at a reasonable cost that doesn't cause economic decline. Joeren Van der Veer, former CEO of Royal Dutch Shell, one of the biggest oil conglomerates, stated in 2008 that all the cheap oil would be gone by 2015. He described how we might cope either by scrambling around at the last minute or devising a blueprint to adjust to diminishing supply. Many think the oil industry wants everyone to believe supply is declining so they can jack up prices (and profits) but what if supply actually is declining? Some have said peak supply for cheap oil has already passed worldwide and we are on the downward curve. Saudi Arabia's Ghawar oil field (the world's largest) supposedly peaked a few years ago. If supply is diminishing, how are we dealing with this other than playing numbers games to enrich speculators and oil producing nations? Why aren't we driving truly fuel-efficient cars like the Toyota ES3 (90 mpg)? With our weak economy, driving this would allow everyone to save alot of money from already strained budgets. Why aren't conservation measures more widespread? If oil supplies are truly declining, we need a plan to transition to as many alternatives as possible to maintain economic stability. Unfortunately, cheap oil built the world economy - and may be impossible to replace.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
muck-raker
give me liberty or give me death
07:48 PM on 04/01/2012
excellent post...when the Saudis run out we have this to fall back on:
http://www.snopes.com/politics/gasoline/bakken.asp

now for the good and the bad...the USA has already LEASED most US PUBLIC lands to CANADA...the Oil is of the oil sands variety and has much sulpher. it is called heavy sour crude...and to date it can only be refined by the Saudi-Aramco-Shell refinery in Port Arthur, Texas..the USA has not built a new refinery in 31 years...the ones we now have are patched with bandaids and are constantly down for repairs.. and as an aside because someone will always say Canada does not have refineries...every day the US ships 20,000 barrels of OIL to the N.eastern US/Canada border for refining into gasoline. The USA also buys Gasoline from Portugal and Spain which is refined from Llbyan sweet crude.
12:45 AM on 04/02/2012
Friends;
I believe, burt am not 100% certain, that humanity has already discovered a solution to it's ever- increasing energy needs. I believe we just need to tell the big, conglomerate fossil fuel companies that they must CEASE and DESIST!...(probably within 5 years...sooner, if possible). We need to spend whatever it takes to convert to a SOLAR-POWERED energy economy using Hydrogen Fuel- Cell technology.
We FOR SURE know how to produce Hydrogen Fuel Cell driven vehicles. Well over 300 of them already are in use in the state of California. Photographs of them are on the internet; however, apparently the energy to produce the chemical reaction (Water is broken apart into Oxygen and Hydrogen) comes from methane gas, rather than the ideal source, which is SUNLIGHT!!
I feel very strongly that if we spent 5% of the several trillion dollars that we have spent on wars in IRAQ and Afghanistan, we would be able to research and develop this sustainable technology, and possibly save ourselves from SEVERE GLOBAL WARMING. Also, we would have oil for LUBRICATION and making PLASTICS ( actual best uses for us as a species who wants to continue surviving on our beautiful and mysterious planet)
01:17 PM on 03/31/2012
Nationalize the oil and the banks.

My dad laughed when I gave the protagonist in my novel the mission of advocating for the nationalization of energy. I didn't do it just to have the guy tilting at windmills. I believe that oil and both consumer and investment banking will be nationalized in the near future. The tipping point will come when even the 1% discovers that it's not just a matter of ideology anymore. The rest of the world is nationalizing oil and finance. We can not compete on a global scale if we do not use the power of the federal government to counter the massive power of other governments. No matter how rich and powerful a few private individuals become, they can not compete with entire nations. The strategy of sending the military to take out foreign governments who dare to nationalize oil and other markets is not just immoral, it's an unsustainable strategy that doesn't work. It's more humane AND more efficient to stop spending massive amounts of borrowed money on being the world market police and just nationalize US markets that have to compete with the nationalized markets of other nations.

_______
Author of The Firewall Sedition, a novel in the tradition of the progressive writers of the 1930s. firewalleconomics.com
Genders
Love, Tolerance, Enlightenment
02:39 PM on 03/31/2012
National the FED bank, yes. That's in the constitution. phase out fractional reserve at the same time, and it's inflation neutral. Obviously bring back insurance and bank regulations.

Finance has grown from 5% of our economy in 1980, to 45% now.

We already have nationalized energy given the level pro subsidies we give fossils and nukes.

Let's just shift all those breaks to green energy: rooftop solar, offshore wind, efficiency and waste bio fuels.

Let's tax fossil and nukes for their deadly pollution and dangers.

Let's shut down the worst of the nukes right now, and the rest as rapidly as possible.

ASAP phase out coal, fracking and petroleum.

But the fastest, best way to do that is feed in tariffs, pollution taxes and a regulated market.

Vote for the Kucinich, Warren, Grayson and CPC-Progressive folks in the primaries and the dems in the general.

Then end Bribery, publicly finance elections.
11:00 PM on 03/31/2012
Who is nationalizing investment banking?
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
SadButWiser
12:42 PM on 03/31/2012
Why blame the Saudi for selling their oil at a price the customer is willing to pay? In any case much of their revenue goes into buying weapons from the US. The more money they have, the more weapons they buy. Always remember, if it is good for the Saudis, it is good for the US MIC.

I would recommend that they should milk it while they can, until the world find a better alternative.
09:33 PM on 03/31/2012
A lot of their money also goes to funding terrorism and spreading their special brand of hatred in sub-Saharan Africa.
12:39 PM on 03/31/2012
As much as I detest Saudi Arabia, I find your comments quite disingenuous.You are basically asking of Saudi Arabia to act in contradiction to their national interests, by not maximizing their profits from the sale of oil.
The relationship between America and Saudi is a putrid one - walking hand in hand with Brezhnev would not be that revolting.
Dependence on oil must end and alternative technologies must be propagated worldwide, perhaps even subsidized to accelerate it's implementation.

How many times, must the oil price rise,
Before it's forever abandon-ed
They answer my friend,
Is blowing in the wind.............
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09:58 AM on 03/31/2012
The price of oil and gasoline will come down when there is a serious effort to develop a viable alternative. Big oil has been discouraging competition in transportation since it destroyed the local public transportation industry in the early 1900s.
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banana republican
Next in line for crumbs from the King's Table
08:08 AM on 03/31/2012
Oil, coal, and gas are natural resources and a great many of our problems could be resolved by declaring them 'national' resources. The government could then mandate that they be distributed to 'America first' rather than to the highest bidder. You can bet that China makes sure their natural energy resources serve China's needs first.
ThinkCreeps
Seriously, it's time.
11:45 AM on 03/31/2012
The US has a huge energy consumption.
It imports a huge amount of crude oil, and exports a small amount of petroleum products.
All of the US's coal, oil and gas production is used internally.
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05:04 PM on 03/31/2012
The US is a huge consumer. However, the facts are that we do export some oil: about 15 percent of what we import ($72 billion). We also export more petroleum based products than we import.
05:06 AM on 03/31/2012
Saudi Arabia's ready production capacity is around 11.5 MBD. They have not exceeded 10 MBD since 1980. Their task is twofold. One, the main task, to maximize income. Two, the secondary task, to maximize productive capacity of wells which means regular turnarounds.

They have not deviated from this course in thirty years. This is national interest being played out rationally. The rhetoric associated with selling their supposed policies to the world should, as Mr Leary implies, be taken with a seasoning of salt.

The Saudis may be criticized for their rhetoric, but we all know that is the way of the salesman, nothing more. With regard to maximizing national income for their people, they should be admired.

It is not their job to maximize production in order that that unproductive citizens of the United Sates can afford to drive to Walmart to buy more stuff imported with borrowed dollars.
12:22 AM on 03/31/2012
Speculators should be forced out of the market. Allow only licensed buyers who can and must accept delivery for oil contracts in the futures market at maturity. Tax transactions for oil contracts to reduce churn. Prices will drop to true supply-demand levels below $70 per barrel.
05:10 AM on 03/31/2012
Speculation has no measurable impact on the market as long as speculators do not remove oil from it. What you are asking for would have exactly the opposite effect, since there would be real shortages due to hoarding.
ThinkCreeps
Seriously, it's time.
11:49 AM on 03/31/2012
You can't tell the difference between Goldman Sachs placing forward oil contracts for American Airlines or for themselves. Short term speculation causes price changes from week to week, based on political developments in the middle east, but everyone who uses oil in substantial quanities has a range of longer-term contracts, and is much less sensitively affected. It's a global market. You can't do much to fix it. Singapore won't impose a transaction tax, just like US airlines don't want to pay a European carbon tax.