'Knocking Out the White Man:' 10 Reasons Obama Still Loses in Middle America

Barack Obama and John McCain squared off tonight for the first presidential debate. All through the night my Facebook page was blowing up with congratulatory posts and chest-pounding status updates. But among the self-congratulatory excitement was a palpable sigh at the heavy reality that is settling in. The question now looms: Is it enough to simply be the better candidate? I say no, and here's why.

1. Attention Obama fans: He already has your vote. This isn't the primary; it's the general election. You need to remember that this is now mostly a fight for the heartland, aka the red and pink states. The so-called swing voters are not disenchanted Hillary supporters. Those we can count on to do the right thing, even the P.U.M.A.'s. These are corn-belt Reagan types -- or as they're usually called, 'hard working people.' They don't believe in a Bush III presidency, but a slick Shepard Fairey poster doesn't sway them either. Obama needs to tell these folks they've been sold a bill of goods by the Republicans for the past eight years and lay it out for them in stark detail. He's got to remind them that it wasn't the Democrats that failed to fund the war; it was George Bush failing to fund the Veterans Administration. It wasn't Democrats who allowed the economy to tank, it was the so-called party of the fiscally conservative that watched it all come barreling up to this point. And he needs to paint the slippery maverick with a big bulls eye and not let him slink aboard the Circular Talk Express, as Jon Stewart described it.


2. Democrats are still wusses (so tempting to say what I really think). At least that's the view in Middle America. Why did Obama recite all of his military arguments as a solo act? Why didn't he quote any of the many generals and military folk that support his campaign and ask McCain to counter them? What about his support from former secretaries of state or veterans? He looked only slightly better than a typical Democrat overcompensating for his nuanced positions on foreign affairs and military policy. What about using the words of Colin Powell, who just the other day pretty much blamed Condi and George for being asleep at the wheel while Georgia spiraled towards conflict with Russia? Why not toss McCain's 'We're all Georgians' back down his throat? Dozens of military leaders would probably echo Obama's more careful stance with Russia and aim sharp criticism at the reckless Georgians. Why not ask McCain how he hopes to get his Republican machine in line, the same ones who mangled almost every step of this war and occupation since the jump?


3. McCain was wrong about Pakistan, and not just in the pronunciation of its president's name. When McCain challenged Obama for pushing for raids into Pakistan territory in pursuit of Al'Qaeda, Obama needed to push back hard. It isn't enough to clown McCain for his 'Bomb Iran' song--Iran is an enemy of America, according to popular opinion, so only bleeding hearts care about war drums for them. Instead, why didn't Obama mention the raids that are already happening (at least according to the Pakistanis) courtesy of the Bush administration? Our soldiers and helicopters are already engaged in firefights with the Pakistani army, under our current president. Why not force McCain to criticize his commander in chief for real time operations -- a political plank walk -- as opposed to letting him beat you up about your hypothetical declarations?


4. Aaron Sorkin will not get you elected. This isn't The West Wing. At this point, Mr. Obama, your presidential poise is becoming a liability. Time to break a sweat and get some blood on the fists. Forget the angry black man tag, the once dynamic new thinker is in danger of just being another young, good-looking politician. And the Democrats lose with those all the time.


5. Sarah Palin doesn't matter. Get over it. No, she only obliquely came up in a quick McCain comment tonight, but she's never far from Obama supporter's arguments. Yes, even some conservatives know she's a tool. But continuing to attack her only makes he stronger. Leave her alone and let her fail/fall/fumble on her own. The VP debate is just around the corner. If she doesn't go down then, she'll never wilt under a thousand late night jokes and mean political cartoons.


6. Love doesn't get people elected. Fear does. Sorry, but that's the cold truth. Obama has gotten this far on the backs of our love for him, his spirit, the hope he inspires, and how he makes us feel. Unfortunately, that hasn't won an election since 1960 and it barely worked then. A better make-up job on Nixon and we'd never have heard of John F Kennedy. We're a lot more cynical society today and there are two wars raging, terrorism fears and near financial collapse. What's love got to do with all that?


7. Hillary. Obama could have utilized Hillary several times during the debate. For one, McCain mentioned her by name as an example of his bipartisan budget cutting. Then a few minutes later, he cut down Obama's health care plan as some sort of socialist government program. Hello, that's Clinton's plan too -- and it comes with 18 million hungry voters. Why not take that straight to McCain while Clinton's name's still fresh in the room? Mr. Obama, please use these Hillary voters to your advantage and talk to them whenever you can. And never let your opponent co-op her name.


8. America knows Obama opposed the war. A big part of the reason he captured the nomination was because he won the battle of good judgment long before the middle of the country had finally grown sour on Iraq. But now he finds himself sounding like a broken record in a room where the mood might have more recently changed. The war now looks less important, if not 'winnable' to many. So when McCain accused Obama of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, it has an effect, especially among those heartland voters he needs. No matter how unfortunate and inaccurate this view is, it's a defining characteristic of defeatist Democrats. (And, by the way, citing Biden as evidence of your military experience just plays into the hands of critics who think you chose him simply to prop up your foreign policy deficits.)


9. Obama is still too defensive. He answered several of McCain's attacks with agitated counter attacks. This style might please the ringside cheering crowd, but it doesn't feel presidential to me. I wanted to see him rise above McCain's jabs and use his statements as a launching pad to his hopefully more sound solutions. Then, after he's decimated his opponent's presumed weaker or hypocritical positions, he can come back and finish him off by dismantling his statements.


10. Still standing is winning. Unless you're Obama. Chris Rock put it best: you can't beat white people; you can only knock them out. Replace 'white' with 'standard bearing gray-haired legacy candidate' and the rule applies. Applying this to the presidential race means is that it isn't enough for the contender -- Obama -- to just stay in the ring. When you're fighting the presumptive heir to the championship belt, you need to knock them completely to the mat. Kerry didn't do it and neither did Gore. Obama needed to leave McCain lying in a pool of Republican contradictions and failed Bushisms. But like the nightmares I have when I'm swinging at an attacking opponent and just not connecting hard enough to make a difference, I kept shadow boxing on my sofa as Obama took admirable swings but landed insufficiently. He needed to send McCain tumbling (Hell, I'd settle for grumbling or mumbling). It didn't happen tonight.

Stay tuned for the next round. I hope I'm wrong about all of this.

Update 9/28

What Middle America sees:

Read more reactions to the first presidential debate from HuffPost bloggers, including Nora Ephron, Bob Shrum, Madeleine Albright, Paul Reiser, Arianna Huffington, Sean Penn, Sheryl Crow, and more.

Follow Raymond Leon Roker on Twitter: www.twitter.com/raymondroker

Comments

[Hot Monkey]

People like you probably have never run a political campaign..­.you sound like one of those sports anchors who talking about winning the game but are not playing it. Obama has teams of advisors way smarter than you, and I trust them and Obama to win this thing. Obama has stated he's playing this, not as politics as usual, but as a new kind of politics. If you support Obama then stop complaining and help Obama win. I get so tired of what the “Nay Sayers” complain about, you are not helping. The middle America will either vote for Obama or McCain. Being mean isn't going to help Obama. Look at what being mean to Obama got McCain, a flurry of reviews that painted him as such, and he lost the debate because of it. Despite what the talking heads have to say about what Obama didn't say, the debate was mostly for people who have seen little of Obama to get an idea of what kind of person he was.

[chimpyissatan]

With all due respect, Kerry, Gore, and Dukakis all had "smart" advisors. Truly intelligent people listen to constructive criticism, and don't dismiss it out of hand.

"People like you?" WTF is that all about? Many of us would LOVE to trust a D candidate as totally and unflinchingly as you do, but have learned too many harsh lessons in our lifetimes. You might want to give some respect for that perspective a whirl.

CL

[FemWorkingClass]

chimpyissatan: I share your perspective. Senator Obama has my vote. He can only earn my trust by rolling back the power grab by the executive branch in this administration. All other considerations as to policy, issues, etc., are secondary to this reassurance that my grandchildren and their children will live in a (mostly) free country.

[tchristin]

As I have said all along, Obama has no shortage of opinions about "what he needs to do". However, with or without this kind of well - intentioned advise - he seems to be doing just fine.

[Shellly]

Obama knows that this won't be easily won.

Just the fact that no matter how much eduation he has how well spoken and grasp he has of the subject, he's still told he's naive.

I just read on the washingtonpost.com website that Obama humiliated McCain behind closed doors at the very meeting McCain called pres bush to have. John got beaten up at his own game. He came to the debate a broken man. By the time he got to washington DC there was a tentative deal in place... he wanted to take credit, but not have a voice... Obama called him out, ask his position and he blustered and left the room.... and the talks stalled.

What a joke...

[KitChandler]

Is that why McCain refused to look at Obama?

[nellie]

We have become so accustomed to bellicose politics, it has become difficult, if impossible, to recognize a real statesman when one comes on the scene. But that's what we have in Barack Obama. I've never been much of an Obamabot, but his performance in Friday's debate has converted me into a stalwart enthusiast.

I am an independent. I'm the type of person Obama needs to win over. And believe me, I'm not impressed by the KO. Maybe that's what progressives need to feel vindicated, to have some cathartic release from eight years of bush, some vicarious punch in the face. But the rest of us don't feel that.

We want to see dependability, knowledge, level-headedness, truthfulness (to the extent that we can determine it), and good judgment. Most of all, we want evidence of the ability to work with everyone to get things done. We have a lot to do.

So, respectfully, I think your take does not generalize to the general election. Obama needs to win over the non-converted. IMHO, he's doing a great job of that.

[Norge]

If the fear factor does not override middle America's thinking process Obama will win.

America has caused enormous suffering throughout the world these last 50 years and their theft and plunder of other lands resources has been just criminal. Perhaps Obama will be honest enough to admitt the wrongs to the world.

For more insight into America's criminal activity read;

Confessions of an Economic Hit Man by John Perkins, published 2004 Berrett Koehler Publishers­.inc.
http://www.bkconnection.com

Rolf Krogsæther

[research]

Obama completely dominated McCain.

Leaders and Lions look directly at you, while standing relaxed.

Followers and prey avert their gaze, stoop, mutter insults, grump.

[Veeve]

Hear! Hear!

I know that if Barack had wanted to, he could have been more pugilistic. I am not the kind of person who harbors any kind of faith in other people easily. But Barack has now demonstrated uncanny 'long-headedness' time after time. This is not college debate club. In truth, it is a combination debate/int­erview/bea­uty pageant. His debate performance was tilted towards the 10% of undecideds. He won without trying to bully 'the cranky, old war hero' that reminds people of their grandfather.

[research]

If Obama had punched back as hard as he could have, McCain would have got sympathy points. Obama brilliantly choose restraint.

[pearlone]

Obama won the debate. He looked like, and will be, a President we can be proud of, which we haven't had in a very long time. By the time he died people even looked back on Reagan with nostalgia because at least he dignified the office. In a lot of ways I think Barrack is our Reagan. This economic bailout has ended the Reagan revolution forever and Barrack will bring a new New Deal. This was only the first debate and I don't doubt he has a plan. If he needs to take off the gloves he will but right now it looks McCain is doing a fine job of hanging himself. What his anger said to me last night was, as per news reports, Barrack took charge in the White House meeting and called him on his bullshit.

[PumaAnn]

Pearlone..­...not to me.

He's weasley to me.

[samval]

Every debate can be won in hindsight

[twothousandeight]

Wrong.

Obama had a massive challenge and he played it nearly perfectly.

The only people who wanted to see Obama "destroy" McCain are the people who already believe in Obama. The independents and undecideds, by definition, *like* McCain to some degree. Futhermore, Obama, like myself, is a black man. Are you seriously suggesting that he smack around the elderly, white, undisputed war hero?!? Do you really think that would have gotten Obama the "white working class" votes he needs?

Obama and his team are smart. They're in this to win on *election day*. His performance in this debate was the biggest step in that direction since his nomination.

[ohioan73]

LOL! People have gotten used to Obama's natural, laid back, calm, cool demeanor and they don't need it to change right now while he's ahead. Raymond made some good debating points, though and I could tell many Democrats were annoyed that Obama didn't "hit it out of the park".

I know for sure that Obama has NO room for error. I also know that there are pockets of people who don't know or associate with black people and they have nothing to go on but stereotypes. "Angry" is a BIG one. Angry, scary Obama is not an option and I think he might be better off with the "love" thing.

[raskolnikov72]

eh ... don't agree. People are looking for solutions from a leader who is a credible commander in chief .. not vitriol from an angry soldier ...

He could not come across as an angry black man. He had to come across as genial, knowledgeable, and tough enough ... he did that.

[ohioan73]

Good points, Raymond. To summarize your article, "The Black Tax is upon us ALL now".

Chris Rock: If the white guy has 5 and you have 6, you lost.

I just hope it turns out to be a "Joe Louis" effect rather than a "Bradley Effect". Black people generally won't get their hopes up too high because it wont be as electrifying when McCain hits the mat. Its awful that we are in that precarious position, but victory is sweeter that way.

For the first time, white people who voted Obama will get the effect of Black Tax victory and it will be fun, fun, fun. Its the best thing about being black.

I hate to see this reduced to a "black guy vs white guy" fight, but this is America and that's what its become. Its really sad and disheartening so I may as well gloat and dance on the graves of founding father bigots because you know they would do the same thing if it was the other way around.

[MadeinAmericaProud]

A person own mouth can get them in more trouble, than the trouble the person is really in.

a tongue can help or hurt . The wise person learn from their mistakes and make a change, a fool never changes.

[Pierpier]

and I think Obama understands this perfectly well. What you say he should do will come in the next debates, most strongly in the last. No possibility of delivering a KO if to more rounds are already set.

[dsbsh]

What this post misses is the electoral math. Obama does need to win in the red/pink midwest... or not. He needs to hold the states Kerry won-- and that's looking better and better, with only PA, MN and NH still really up for grabs, and all three moving Obama's way. It's also looking like he's going to take CO. And, as of right now, Virginia and FL are just about dead-even, and he's closing in NC. OH and even MO are very close too. If Obama holds PA and MN and takes CO, he only needs one more state, even if he loses OH, MO, and IN. Winning middle America would be awesome, but do the math before the doom & gloom.

[CalexenderJ]

I agree with some of your points and disagree with others. To reach those people in the red and pink states, Obama had to do the following: show that he wasn't a left wing radical, with extremist ideas, who was an empty suit, and can only read from teleprompters.

Obama could have landed a couple more punches, he definitely missed some opening. He'll have another chance to tie Bush's economic failure on McCain at the economy debate, but abandoning his presidential demeanor would be a mistake. John McCain looked old and grumpy in comparison to Obama's poise.

Mentioning Hillary won't help him much with the folks he needs to reach.

[texastrixie]

Obama also needs to bring up McCain's "earmarks.­" Arizona has never had fed money sent to it for research on the barrel cactus OR rattlesnake museum tourist trap? McCain may not use "earmarks," but somewhere in the last 8 years, some stupid funding project for Arizona got passed by the House and Senate and I bet McCain didn't vote against THAT. Find them and be ready to throw them back at him. How many military bases does Arizona have? Every Senator "brings home the bacon," and right now, McCain is suggesting that only you are guilty of this crime. Prove him wrong with examples of stupidity he has to explain.

Figure out NOW what you will try to cut. He wants to cut programs, once again, how about promoting a Federal hiring freeze? Also, can't that stupid Medicare Part D bill be re-opened. Bush passed a medicare drug bill, tell the country you'll open that up and make the drug companies either negotiate a fair price (like the Military does) OR maybe make the drug bill cover all Americans and they all can sign up to get drugs at the reduced rate.

McCain is going to say prison camp, earmarks, and surge 99 zillion more times. Figure out how to shut him down. Maybe that is the true test of a President - if you can't handle some grumpy little old man who only cares about rich people, you just might not win. MAN UP