'Knocking Out the White Man:' 10 Reasons Obama Still Loses in Middle America

Barack Obama and John McCain squared off tonight for the first presidential debate. All through the night my Facebook page was blowing up with congratulatory posts and chest-pounding status updates. But among the self-congratulatory excitement was a palpable sigh at the heavy reality that is settling in. The question now looms: Is it enough to simply be the better candidate? I say no, and here's why.

1. Attention Obama fans: He already has your vote. This isn't the primary; it's the general election. You need to remember that this is now mostly a fight for the heartland, aka the red and pink states. The so-called swing voters are not disenchanted Hillary supporters. Those we can count on to do the right thing, even the P.U.M.A.'s. These are corn-belt Reagan types -- or as they're usually called, 'hard working people.' They don't believe in a Bush III presidency, but a slick Shepard Fairey poster doesn't sway them either. Obama needs to tell these folks they've been sold a bill of goods by the Republicans for the past eight years and lay it out for them in stark detail. He's got to remind them that it wasn't the Democrats that failed to fund the war; it was George Bush failing to fund the Veterans Administration. It wasn't Democrats who allowed the economy to tank, it was the so-called party of the fiscally conservative that watched it all come barreling up to this point. And he needs to paint the slippery maverick with a big bulls eye and not let him slink aboard the Circular Talk Express, as Jon Stewart described it.


2. Democrats are still wusses (so tempting to say what I really think). At least that's the view in Middle America. Why did Obama recite all of his military arguments as a solo act? Why didn't he quote any of the many generals and military folk that support his campaign and ask McCain to counter them? What about his support from former secretaries of state or veterans? He looked only slightly better than a typical Democrat overcompensating for his nuanced positions on foreign affairs and military policy. What about using the words of Colin Powell, who just the other day pretty much blamed Condi and George for being asleep at the wheel while Georgia spiraled towards conflict with Russia? Why not toss McCain's 'We're all Georgians' back down his throat? Dozens of military leaders would probably echo Obama's more careful stance with Russia and aim sharp criticism at the reckless Georgians. Why not ask McCain how he hopes to get his Republican machine in line, the same ones who mangled almost every step of this war and occupation since the jump?


3. McCain was wrong about Pakistan, and not just in the pronunciation of its president's name. When McCain challenged Obama for pushing for raids into Pakistan territory in pursuit of Al'Qaeda, Obama needed to push back hard. It isn't enough to clown McCain for his 'Bomb Iran' song--Iran is an enemy of America, according to popular opinion, so only bleeding hearts care about war drums for them. Instead, why didn't Obama mention the raids that are already happening (at least according to the Pakistanis) courtesy of the Bush administration? Our soldiers and helicopters are already engaged in firefights with the Pakistani army, under our current president. Why not force McCain to criticize his commander in chief for real time operations -- a political plank walk -- as opposed to letting him beat you up about your hypothetical declarations?


4. Aaron Sorkin will not get you elected. This isn't The West Wing. At this point, Mr. Obama, your presidential poise is becoming a liability. Time to break a sweat and get some blood on the fists. Forget the angry black man tag, the once dynamic new thinker is in danger of just being another young, good-looking politician. And the Democrats lose with those all the time.


5. Sarah Palin doesn't matter. Get over it. No, she only obliquely came up in a quick McCain comment tonight, but she's never far from Obama supporter's arguments. Yes, even some conservatives know she's a tool. But continuing to attack her only makes he stronger. Leave her alone and let her fail/fall/fumble on her own. The VP debate is just around the corner. If she doesn't go down then, she'll never wilt under a thousand late night jokes and mean political cartoons.


6. Love doesn't get people elected. Fear does. Sorry, but that's the cold truth. Obama has gotten this far on the backs of our love for him, his spirit, the hope he inspires, and how he makes us feel. Unfortunately, that hasn't won an election since 1960 and it barely worked then. A better make-up job on Nixon and we'd never have heard of John F Kennedy. We're a lot more cynical society today and there are two wars raging, terrorism fears and near financial collapse. What's love got to do with all that?


7. Hillary. Obama could have utilized Hillary several times during the debate. For one, McCain mentioned her by name as an example of his bipartisan budget cutting. Then a few minutes later, he cut down Obama's health care plan as some sort of socialist government program. Hello, that's Clinton's plan too -- and it comes with 18 million hungry voters. Why not take that straight to McCain while Clinton's name's still fresh in the room? Mr. Obama, please use these Hillary voters to your advantage and talk to them whenever you can. And never let your opponent co-op her name.


8. America knows Obama opposed the war. A big part of the reason he captured the nomination was because he won the battle of good judgment long before the middle of the country had finally grown sour on Iraq. But now he finds himself sounding like a broken record in a room where the mood might have more recently changed. The war now looks less important, if not 'winnable' to many. So when McCain accused Obama of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, it has an effect, especially among those heartland voters he needs. No matter how unfortunate and inaccurate this view is, it's a defining characteristic of defeatist Democrats. (And, by the way, citing Biden as evidence of your military experience just plays into the hands of critics who think you chose him simply to prop up your foreign policy deficits.)


9. Obama is still too defensive. He answered several of McCain's attacks with agitated counter attacks. This style might please the ringside cheering crowd, but it doesn't feel presidential to me. I wanted to see him rise above McCain's jabs and use his statements as a launching pad to his hopefully more sound solutions. Then, after he's decimated his opponent's presumed weaker or hypocritical positions, he can come back and finish him off by dismantling his statements.


10. Still standing is winning. Unless you're Obama. Chris Rock put it best: you can't beat white people; you can only knock them out. Replace 'white' with 'standard bearing gray-haired legacy candidate' and the rule applies. Applying this to the presidential race means is that it isn't enough for the contender -- Obama -- to just stay in the ring. When you're fighting the presumptive heir to the championship belt, you need to knock them completely to the mat. Kerry didn't do it and neither did Gore. Obama needed to leave McCain lying in a pool of Republican contradictions and failed Bushisms. But like the nightmares I have when I'm swinging at an attacking opponent and just not connecting hard enough to make a difference, I kept shadow boxing on my sofa as Obama took admirable swings but landed insufficiently. He needed to send McCain tumbling (Hell, I'd settle for grumbling or mumbling). It didn't happen tonight.

Stay tuned for the next round. I hope I'm wrong about all of this.

Update 9/28

What Middle America sees:

Read more reactions to the first presidential debate from HuffPost bloggers, including Nora Ephron, Bob Shrum, Madeleine Albright, Paul Reiser, Arianna Huffington, Sean Penn, Sheryl Crow, and more.

Follow Raymond Leon Roker on Twitter: www.twitter.com/raymondroker

Comments

[CaptainStormfield]

I like your article, very direct and no BS. After reading some of the stuff about the debates here and there from liberals of various stripes its easy to see why they think we are clueless. Whats the right way for Obama to go after McCain? I have no idea :). My debating style is more like poking you in eye with a pencil. Clinton said that you have to make people feel like you care about what happens to them. That attacking someone is not the way to convince a swing voter. Do the people Obama needs to sell himself to want him to "draw some blood" off McCain? I do think he should have called McCain out as a liar at least once. But how? Street Obama? Lawyer Obama? Folksy Obama? I saw him on TV this morning at a rally and his tone was good, short words, strong delivery, good timing. I think that style is better but thats just me. He does seem to have clicked with undecided voters.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=36KsLl4qS-w Frank Luntz evil pollster and wordsmith.
Worth watching, he's very sharp.

[maxx1]

I think Raymond is accurate in his views. Obama needs to KO McCain. In the next debate he should tell John that he has "lost his bearings" push McCain hard make him angry. Most people know McCain is a puppet of the power elite. I think Obama was just doing a 'rope-a-dope. America wants to see a KO

No more Mr. Nice guy Obama, where do nice guys finish? Go for the KO in round 2

[Glenn1441]

We've already won. The battering ram has more than splintered the door. Whether now, or in four more years (as painful as the wait may be), we will know what it to speak the words 'President Obama.'

And why not some other name, attached to some other Democrat? Because Obama simply transcends his party affiliation. He is of the now and of the future. To borrow slang from the '60s: He's switched on. Brilliance, intellectual or otherwise, is a light. And we follow the light. More will come to join us.

That is why I believe that his very arrival on the global stage is the victory we should be celebrating. Now.

And yet, should McCain assume the presidency come January, I will find a way to deal with the consequences (surely negative).­But -- alot can happen in four years. Pressures build. Taxpayers grow angrier and angrier. Accountability is demanded. Resignations are requested. 'Impeachment' is no longer whispered and instead, enacted.

A lot can happen in four years.

[DieboldHacker]

A repub win is the shortest route to a full-blown revolution, yes. In that sense, preferable.

[texastrixie]

Michelle Obama has already said this is a one-shot deal. If the country, in the horrible mess it is in now, cannot elect someone who is smart, educated, and can inspire people to actually care about each other again (people we don't know personally), then I would not blame Obama a bit if he stayed in the Senate rather than run again. Besides, do you have any idea what the quality of life will be like for lower and middle class Americans if McCain is elected? It will be so bad that the Dems will not find it hard to get anyone to run, Obama or Clinton or Bayh. Truly, Americans don't seem to realize that we cannot handle 4 more years - or 4 more wars - or annual decreases of 4% in a family's takehome pay.

[pearlone]

or a return to the draft, which as the mother of teenagers, is what scares me most about McSame.

[LiarLiarIraqsOnFire]

I live in Indiana and I've seen thousands of Obama bumper stickers and hundreds of Obama yard signs, as for McCain, I've seen ten, maybe a dozen McCain bumper stickers and a grand total of TWO McCain yard signs. Even the majority of Republicans (who are the majority in Indiana) aren't having any of Grandpa's B.S. and incoherency.

[611Juniper]

I grew up in the rural Midwest. My relatives are just like Barack Obama's grandmother, generally nice folk but afraid of black men. So voing for a black for president would be a big jump for them.

Although I've never been an activist on racial issues, I've decided that it was time for me to step up to the plate. So I'm doing everything I can, from providing solid information on issues to giving some gentle nudging, to encourage my relatives to make that big jump by voting for Obama.

I'm guessing that lots of other folks are silently doing the same ... maybe with their relatives, maybe with their neighbors, maybe with their coworkers. So although I understand the point behind this article, I hope that rather than be discouraged, more people will be encouraged to take a risk and work on their reluctant relatives, friends, neighbors, and coworkers. This year, every vote counts .. because not only does Obama need to win for the good of the country, he needs to win by a wide margin so that America can take one truly giant step toward being the society that we all dream of, where a person is judged by the content of their character and not the color of their skin.

[Raymond Leon Roker - Huffpost Blogger]

I applaud your personal efforts. And while it's pointed out below, that my stance is pessimistic, I remain hopeful. I also wasn't trying to say Barack can't get elected because he's black, although I admit the challenge remains. My article, if a bit blunt, was an attempt to reframe the premature celebration (of Obama fans) and say that navigating a win here is particularly delicate and far from complete. And that Obama needs to think abut people like your relatives when he's on stage (Hell, like his relatives!), as well as the steel worker/par­ent/cop/mi­dwest housewife that is still 'undecided'. He still has to put McCain away solidly and he's not there yet.

[BiGnBulKY]

There is only so much Obama can do......YE­S Obama has to find a way to dance with all demographi­cs.. YES he has to knock McCain out in debates etc.... BUT why? ALL OBAMA has to do is be HIMSELF and do his best work ON THE CLOCK.....­. GAME OVER OBAMA WINS......­.. do you really think that McCain's "on the clock" work is anything Presidential?
This is not a game and McCain is trying to game this Election. SO it really depends on the mind state of the voter... is he-she seeing the Election as "real Life" or are they seeing the Election as a "sportings event"

Real -Life = clear mindstate/ sober/ clearity
Sportings Event= altered mindstate/ under the influence/ cloudy vision

Obama by a Landslide.­...

[MadeinAmericaProud]

Your op-ed has all the valid points to what has been stated during the debates. However, when you truly look back on the presidents the voters have elected and the results of what the presidents have or have not improved the lives of the average voters.(fa­ct over 14 countries have been given 25+millions of our middle class jobs by the voters, and the products the countries produce killing us slowly or costing us more expensive medical care.) We need our manufacturing back here.

No matter if Obama does what McCain brags about in the surge without any comments that American tax payers are paying over 69,000 thousands of the sons of Iraq $300.00 a month. And that is why the surge is working we are paying them not to fight.
Why didn't you mention that fact? That is a lot of welfare money to Iraq.

[RREGAL]

Raymond very well written, but awfully pessimistic. There is talk that the black community can't believe that a black man can be elected President for fear of be let down and heartbroken. I don't know if this is true or not, but my fear is that the verbalization and promotion of these fears is the making of a "manifest destiny".

As Barack says, "It is not up to him to get him in to the white house, but the voters'. Keep hope alive.

After these last eight years I think it is Obama and not Mccain who is the "presumptive heir", and Obama is acting very presidential. Sometimes compassion can champion.

Peace

[FaceYourFears]

"I don't know if this is true or not, but my fear is that the verbalization and promotion of these fears is the making of a "manifest destiny".

THANK YOU!!!!! His article pretty much said , I know Sen O is the better candidate but I don't think he's gonna win. So much for positive thinking!

[chimpyissatan]

I think the term you seek is "self-fulfilling prophecy," and I think yours is a valid concern. It is a fine line to walk, that which separates Chicken Little and Pollyanna, but we must try.

As one who put heart and soul into Kerry 2004, I'm with Raymond. This thing's far from over, and I've seen this cheerleader's optimism take us under before. All the amens and hallelujias (sp?) in the world do little to impact those outside the choirbox and doors of the church. Outside those doors are the voters who hold the keys to the white house.

Take off your progressive glasses for a moment and look at the world through the myopic, fearful, and often ignorant eyes of the disconnected, undecided voter. I watched the debate with that in mind and saw that, at best, Obama didn't step on his own dick. In my opinion, that's simply not good enough.

Close enough to steal is all they need. Complacency and blind faith that good will ultimately triumph will give them exactly the margin they need to take this thing away from us again.

It is necessary, while there's still time, to offer suggestions for course corrections. It is also our responsibility as stewards of our movement to "keep things honest." That means looking at ourselves as others might, warts and all, and doing whatever must be done to with this damned election.

[misterjosh]

Damn dude. Your analysis is spot on.

For those of us who value intelligence, thoughtfulness, and the like, Obama has already won us over. But the undecideds haven't figured out who is going to keep them safe. It's easy to believe McCain is tough enough, and that Obama is smart enough. McCain is not going to start looking smarter anytime soon, so it's up to Obama to show that he can protect us. Not only from the terrorists, he needs to show that he can protect us from the John McCains.

I wanted the swing voters to see him stand up and call McCain a liar to his face. He needs to say, "I'm not going to sit here and allow you to continue to lie to the American people the way you have been lying throughout this campaign, and the way Bush has been for eight years." Or something like that. People need to see that he can put McCain on the defensive. Call him out directly in real time as he mangles the facts. That will earn him the trust that he can do the same or better with America's enemies.

I'm glad the polls show him as the winner from last night, but it's not nearly enough as you and Chris point out. Both men were clearly standing and not too bloody, which is not a good sign. Time to step it up, homie!

Keep up the good blogging..­.

[peacegurl48]

McCain walked off mumbling, grumbling, grimacing and real pissed off that this amazing man beat him good.

What's love got to do with it? People are sick to death of being driven by fear and hate...hum­anity, civility, intelligence and kindness need to make a comeback.

Nonetheless I think Obama's "southside" skills witll come out in the next two debates but he will remain the class act that he is.

[Navec245]

This incessant Democratic whining is really unbearable. All over the cable channels, most notably Chris Matthews and Rachel Maddow were going on and on about why Obama did not talk more about the economy and then all this stuff about Obama having to knock McCain out last night.

Does anyone realize that had Obama continually tried to pivot away from foreign policy he would have seemed afraid to challenge McCain in this area? Imaging the repubs today had that happened. It would have been a huge loss. Obama had to do this to PROVE himself and by all accounts did so.

There are two debates remaining that will focus on the economy. You can best believe that Obama will bring the hammer down with foreign policy out of the way.

Last, imagine where his campaign be were he listening to all of the noise out here. The campaign BEAT back the Clintons. Why not trust his strategy?

[FaceYourFears]

Excellent point...th­anks for saying it!

[JoePomp]

Raymond,

Obama needed to speak to one set of viewers last night. Undecided voters. According to every post debate poll, including Fox News' focus group, Obama was the clear winner.

As Bill Clinton wisely stated this week, it doesn't matter what Obama's best supporters think of his and Hillary's efforts to get him elected. It only matters what the small group of undecided voters in PA, OH, FL, MI, NV and MO think. That is who Obama needed to connect with last night and he did. Believe me, it was not his goal to embarrass McCain.

At the end of the day, he is more than happy to piss you off in order to make them (the undecideds) happy.

It never ceases to amaze me, with all Obama has achieved against ridiculous odds, that he still gets such heavy criticism from his biggest supporters.

I hate to break the news to you, but Obama did exactly what he needed to do last night and you will see it in the polls this week.

And no more boxing metaphors. Politics isn't boxing (except maybe in Taiwan).

Joe P.

[FaceYourFears]

Very good!

[c64audio]

Just look at Obama's CNN numbers for uncommitteds after the debate. He did what he needed to do.

[docron]

Actually Obama did make him go off the stage "grumbling and mumbling". If you're in a debate and the only thing your opponent can say in his defense is to say "horseshit", you won. And you won big. Don't know if MSM will bring it up, but McCain's grumbling and mumbling is on dailykos.

Talk about a grumpy old man. Really showing my age now but do we really want Uncle Charlie from My Three Children as our president?? America didn't think so last night. Check out the viewer polls.

[joceeco]

Raymond Leon Roker, you are clueless. You think like an eigth grader. Obama was just fine tonight. McCain supposedly own "foreign Policy" but he did not even put Obama on the ropes. McCain was expected to be the Mike Tyson of the olden days on this political night and he could not land a solid punch on Obama. Not one to take Obama out anyway. The next one (debate that is) is on the economy and Obama will show you and everyone how being a community organizer on Chicago's southside taught him how to give out occassional rump-kickings. You should know better!

[uheardme]

I hope youre wrong too, but I'm afraid you have some great points. The polls should not be tracking this close with less than 40 days to go. John McCain is an erratic, under-educated, shoot-from-the-hip guy, not unlike the clown currently occupying the Oval Office. I think even most clear-thinking Republicans know this to be true. They need Obama to "feel their pain". Unfortunately, its not enough for some Americans that he is knowledgable about the nation's challenges and he has far more reasonable solutions. Americans are immature in that way.

[ToonMoene]

> Stay tuned for the next round. I hope I'm wrong about all of this.

I'm with the majority of the pundits: Obama had to tie this debate to win, because it was supposed to play to McCain's strength: Foreign Policy.

Obama certainly held is own.

The only thing that remains is that we have to involve a certified psychiatrist who is going to explain to us this strange phenomenon that John McCain didn't *look* at Barack Obama *all 90 minutes of the debate*.