Harsh warnings from U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton last week, charging Iran is "moving toward a military dictatorship." Clinton addressed the administration's plan to sanction the Revolutionary Guard, which controls Iran's nuclear program as well as the country's infrastructure, oil resources and technology sectors. The U.S. government has already frozen the Revolutionary Guard's assets in U.S. jurisdictions and is attempting to gain international support for sanctions, "aimed at those enterprises controlled by the Revolutionary Guard, which we believe is in effect supplanting the government of Iran," Clinton said.
But at a time when Iran's Democratic Green Movement is quietly brewing behind closed doors, perhaps sanctions may not be the best approach.
Iranian-American attorney and author Melody Moezzi agrees with Clinton that there appears to be a "more militarized look and feel" in Iran, but warns the U.S. and its allies must allow the revolution come from the Iranian people:
"You must stand back and let them do what they can because as soon the West gets involved, Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader will try to make an enemy out of the West. "
Moezzi says, a crumbling economy could be the key to dismantling the Revolutionary Guard:
"If the regime continues to fail to improve the economy and the basic standard of living of the Iranian people, if it continues to fail to adequately address some of Iran's most serious social ills such as skyrocketing "crack" (condensed heroin) use, prostitution and human and drug trafficking, then the regime will also continue to lose support. This includes members of the Revolutionary Guard, as they too want to support their families and see improvements in Iranian society. It's true that much of the Revolutionary Guard is highly devoted to the philosophy of the Islamic Republic, but as the regime continues to desecrate the philosophy upon with the Islamic Republic was founded (namely, independence, freedom and Islam) it's quite possible that key members of the Revolutionary Guard could begin to turn, and it may only take those key elite members to get the rest of the Guard to turn and join the opposition as well."
But failed protests marking the 31st anniversary of the Iranian Revolution has many questioning whether democracy can ever be brought to Iran. Moezzi says the recent setback has given the opposition an opportunity to rethink its strategy:
"We're just regrouping as a movement. We are now forced to create our own propaganda, which is what the Ayatollah Khomeini did when he was in France. He sent people into Iran to create propaganda. The same situation is going on here but not coming from exile because you have these bloggers able to express opinions online. The problem is, if you don't know what you want, then who will lead us? These are the questions we need to answer in thought not through marching in the streets. We now have an opportunity to develop a deep, meaningful philosophy."
"Several Iranian clerics, such as Mehdi Karroubi, former President Mohammad Khatami and the late Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri, have stood up to the government and openly stated that the regime is not only un-democratic, but that it is also un-Islamic. The situation in Iran is different from that in many Latin American countries though because the people weren't fighting against a "Catholic Republic" there. Iran is unique in that the people are using Islam to combat a so-called "Islamic" Republic. But when you consider the influence of liberation theology in general, I think that there are important similarities with respect to the use of liberation theology in many Latin American countries and also in Iran. Many within the opposition are using Islam to call for a secular state (if not in name, then at least in practice) because the only true Islamic state is indeed a secular one, where the Qur'an is respected, particularly the statement in the Qur'an that there should be no coercion in religion."
But coercion appears to be a successful strategy in controlling the opposition. Fear of being beaten, raped and sentenced to death has kept many Iranians from challenging the status quo.
Moezzi says despite growing fears, some people are willing to stand up out of pure rage. But the movement cannot create change unless people are willing to die for their beliefs:
"The concept of martyrdom is important and will help push the revolution forward. But as long as the regime keeps creating martyrs, it creates its own demise as well."
Technology is the Answer
Despite the government's attempts to slow the Internet and shutdown email systems, videos, articles and messages continue to make their way online. Iranian-American Youth founding member Sanaz, (who withholds her surname, in fear of retaliation by the government against relatives in Iran) says technology has a huge impact on the democratic movement:
"Regardless of how oppressive the government is the kids continue to use any means to communicate with the outsides world. Videos via cell phone and messages still get online somehow. Being able to communicate with people in the outside world - that's the only way that people see the atrocities that are occurring. Up until the past few months, activists have done everything behind closed doors. No one ever knew what was going on and only now people are escaping, people are writing articles, people are calling in, having interviews. You see the raw footage on TV of people being beaten. That's how they are getting the attention of the world."
Sanaz says although there's a great deal of fear, passion fuels the opposition:
"The hope for change, this drive for democracy, for change in government, I think that's so much stronger. This is 31 years of oppression and essentially, enough is enough."
On February 13th, Iranian American Youth launched a mobile billboard campaign featuring compelling images of Iranian students protesting and being attacked. The messages read: "Human Rights for Iran," "31 Years of Oppression," and "Enough Dictatorship." The group drove trucks around the White House and U.S. Capitol, in an effort to raise awareness among Americans and gain support of administration and government officials. Iranian American Youth has partnered with Justice Through Music's non-profit campaign Protest Music From Iran, which reaches out to Iranian musicians around the world to create music videos in support of the Green Movement. The videos are posted on YouTube in the hopes that those inside Iran will see them. Justice Through Music's campaign has grown exponentially since the June elections. Its other program, Youth2Youth, connects thousands of American college students to Iranian student activists. These campaigns are part of an international grass roots movement in support of a free Iran.
Sanaz says, as an Iranian-American, it is her responsibility and duty to support and represent Iranians inside Iran:
"As everybody saw on TV, there were hundreds of thousands of people out in the streets. As the government's reaction has become worse and worse through the past few months, including public executions, of course you see less and less people. Parents are scared, people are frightened to come out in the streets, but the movement is still alive and that's why it's even more essential that we support them here, where we're safe and we can have that voice. We can say whatever we want. So more and more it becomes important that we take an active role in supporting the people of Iran."
While the odds are seemingly against the Green Movement's success, Melody Moezzi says even as an avid supporter, she's not too concerned:
"The world has seen the Iranian people achieve the impossible before. I have no doubt that with the will, they can do it again."
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