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Dollars to Donuts


There used to be a time when the ultimate declaration of certainty was "I'll bet you dollars to donuts, I'm right." Those were the days when dollars were worth a dollar and donuts were virtually worthless. Now no one exactly knows what a dollar is worth but a donut costs 99 cents at Dunkin Donuts. "Dollars to donuts" has become an even money bet.

Earlier this month I was in the waiting room at my doctor's office. The delay was so great, the patients ahead of me so many, and I was so desperate for something to read that I picked up a Phillips Auctioneers Catalogue dated October 29, 2001. That's a few weeks short of six years ago-- after 9/11, but before the Iraq war.

The paintings were modestly priced, not old masters. But it was not their quality that captured my attention, it was the exchange rate. Back then $1.47 bought one British Pound, now it's $2.03. So, a painting attributed to Thomas Barker that was expected to sell for between £3,000- £4,000 ($4,450 - $5,600.) Today the same painting would cost $6,100 to $9,000, that's $1,650 to $3,400 more, a dollar decline of more than 45%.

Catalogue
estimates were also expressed in Euros. In that case, Americans bought a Euro for 92 cents--now it costs $1.41. That's a 53% decline in the value of the dollar. Brits and Europeans come to New York for Christmas shopping. That speaks for itself.

It is apparent that whether expressed in paintings or donuts the dollar is in some trouble. And neither the Administration nor the media seem much concerned about it. Everybody sees the upside, cheaper prices for American goods sold abroad; nobody pays much attention to what it does to individual Americans traveling abroad. To contradict, Horace Greeley, my advice to vacation travelers is stay home folks, stay home. And also, don't bet anybody dollars to donuts anymore. The odds aren't as good.

 
 
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06:26 PM on 10/13/2007
The tombstone will say, He was as sound as the dollar when he died.
HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
ReasonIsMyReligion
Don't know much micro-bio-logy
01:47 PM on 10/12/2007
"Euros-In-A-Mattress," my foolproof investment strategy.

Kickin' Wall Street's butt, one cheek at a time.
12:15 AM on 10/11/2007
When we implode, which should be any time now, the stock market which seems to have nothing to do with anything besides borrowed money and borrowing yet even more money, will probably still be soaring. How long does anyone with a frontal lobe, think we are going to be around with no jobs, and a pay scale that no one can live on, making donuts an off-budget luxury. How long is it going to take, when we are being virtually poisoned by processed foods, feces that contaminate everything, corn syrup arsenic, and that wonder of wonders the bovine hormone in our milk supply, our ice cream, our cheese. And, amusingly, in the fancy dinners of the corporatists who have brought us to this. A hormone no other civilized country will allow its people to consume, deemed by their scientists as too dangerous. A hormone that we eat and drink continually, all day and night long. And, for the darkest of humor, get this. It makes us fat. Hey, wow, where'd all those fat Americans come from??? We're so dumb, we still think its a mystery.
The changing climate, and what to do about it, also a mystery to our imperial president and that dick Cheney, might work to prevent us from becoming poor, fat undenourished people in a poor nation., When we all, rich and poor, succumb to the fate of the polar bear and the walrus.
07:10 PM on 10/10/2007
Well, my Father's engineering business is doing well, selling equipment to capital-rich manufacturers in Europe and Asia. He was able to raise his rates (in dollars) and still make more money. Same goes for me. I run a tour business, and foreign tourists are spending cash like mad (and tipping well, too). From my perspective, the weak dollar is fine by me. Of course, since I support local farmers and domestic manufacturers, those foreign dollars are really helping my local economy...
HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
ReasonIsMyReligion
Don't know much micro-bio-logy
01:50 PM on 10/12/2007
Fair enough.

Sinking dollar is good for exports. No surprise.

But from a macro perspective, if the typical American buys more foreign than domestic goods, I would suggest a sinking dollar will hurt that purchasing power MORE than by the additional dollars you can spend locally.

Measured in dollars, our economy is treading water.

Meausured in Euros, our economy is shrinking and sinking.

Food for thought.

Glad you're doing well. Most Americans do not have export-based incomes.
07:09 PM on 10/10/2007
It clearly is one of those Supply-Demand things. At one point there was only one International Currency...the dollar. Now there is another, the Euro. So the one time monopoly price of the dollar (in terms of other competing currencies) has met competition. And of course, like a bannana republic, we are lowering rates to print more money to assuage our business problems...so you can bet on more diminution of the dollar. The competitor, the Euro, is much fancier, a new model. Imagine if there were an Asian competitor placed into the comptetive mix, then you could watch a tsunami of dollars coming home to roost. (that would not be a pretty picture)
The single currency for Europe has been a major competitive success for them, and their collective clout vis-a-vis the dollar should not be underestimated.