Final Poll of Cable Television News Viewers-- Comparison to Actual Results

12/07/2008 05:12 am ET | Updated May 25, 2011

To start with the positive, the Cable Television News Viewer Poll (CTNVP) predicted all the results accurately, both overall and in all demographic groups.

To state the negative, the poll predicted that Obama would do better than he did in every category.

In the final overall vote, cable news viewers favored Obama by 11%, he won by 6%. The previous week, we had Obama ahead by 6%, and would've been dead on, but last week's numbers jumped. I did cover my butt by saying that the final numbers might've been a statistical fluke, and there were.

In the demos, my comparisons are with the CNN "Vote by Age" statistics and their demos do not match the Nielsen demos, so the comparisons are not exact. Nevertheless, here it goes:

CTNVP predictions:

18-34s- 75% Obama--25% McCain
18-49s- 66% Obama--34% McCain
25-54s- 64% Obama--36% McCain
Fogies for McCain--Over 50%

CNN actuals
18-29s- 66% Obama--32% McCain
30-44s- 52% Obama--46% McCain
45-64s- 49% Obama--49% McCain
Over 64- 49 % Obama--53% McCain

What have I learned from all this: Cable news viewing is at least indicative, if not perfectly predictive, of the way Americans will vote on Election Day. The comparisons between viewing and voting among 18-34s and 55s and over were reliable. It seems that the 35-54 year-olds watching cable news are not representative of the general population. Those voters split almost 50-50 between Republicans and Democrats, while the viewers were overwhelmingly Democratic. Maybe conservative 35-54s have given up the media, especially TV, entirely. They're not angry enough to watch Fox, but too fed up with the prattle to watch either CNN or MSNBC. Four years from now, I'll keep this in mind and try again.

As for myself, I am satisfied with the results of the 2008 election -- one candidate had, during his campaign, clearly forfeited any claim to the Presidency; and while the other has yet to establish his claim; it's time to give "change" a chance.