Obama/McCain Cable TV Viewing Poll, Week of October 20 - October 26

By now, all readers should be aware of the unscientific nature, the assumptions and the caveats of this poll.

As you can see by the change in title, we're now treating this poll more seriously. Over the past few weeks, we've seen the Presidential race go from a toss up to a 7-point Obama lead.

This week shows little difference in most demographic results in both primetime and total day viewing. However, there are contrasting changes in total viewing numbers. In primetime, Obama's lead has slipped to 4% from 6%. It's now 52% Obama, 48% McCain.

In total day, on the other hand, Obama has gained one point in total viewing numbers. He now leads McCain, 53.9% to 46.1%, that's just short of an 8% lead. In both cases, the changes are probably statistically meaningless, resulting more from a change in the composition of the households measured than a change in political attitudes.

As to the primetime demographics, youngest (18-34) -- Obama is ahead 74.7% to 25.3%, that's almost 3 to 1. With 18-49s, it's Obama 67%, McCain 33% -- Obama 2 to 1. Among 25-54s, Obama has 63.7% of the viewing and McCain 36.3%. That means that McCain's gains among Fox viewers are coming from an increasing number of 55 and older viewers that Nielsen does not measure, since Nielsen regards anyone over 55 as a fogy, unworthy of being an advertising consumer.

In total day demos, again starting with the youngest, Obama lead 73.2% to 26.8% in the 18-34 year old category, 66.2% to 33.8% in 18-49s and 63.3% to 36.7% among 25-54s. I am impressed by the consistency in the results of all four of our October polls, and depending on what happens next Tuesday, I may begin to believe in their accuracy.

I wish to thank Cynthia Turner and her colleagues for getting the numbers to me this early this week, and I hope we can do as well next Tuesday. That will enable me another week's numbers before you finish casting your ballots.

Once again, I urge all the Obama rooters not to count their chickens before they're hatched. Note McCain's gain among primetime viewers, and remember momentum; remember Larry O'Brien's words; and remember it's your duty to vote, no matter for whom you're voting.

Comments

[Reese Schonfeld - Huffpost Blogger]

We assume all Fox viewers are Republicans, all CNN/MSNBC viewers are Democrats. Fox claims 30% of its viewing is done by Democrats, CNN claims that at least 40% of its viewers are not Democrats. Based on overall numbers, we think these errors tend to even out and have used viewing numbers as the measurement for political tendencies. As noted in the article, the numbers have been remarkably stable throughout most of October. McCain held a 51/49 edge through September, while Obama established a 53/47 lead throughout most of October. The demographic measurements have also remained steady with CNN/MSNBC leading in all demo categorizes by more than 60%. The overall numbers are much lower because Nielsen offers no demographic measurement for people over 55. If the basic premise of the poll is correct, it will offer a more accurate measurement than most other polls because it measures what people do rather than what they say.

[allonfla]

I don't get it. Is your poll assuming that these viewers leave with a positive outlook of the candidates?