"Harvard Beats Yale 29-29" - Thoughts on NY-23

Examining the election results for the New York 23rd Congressional District, I could only think of the headline in the Harvard Crimson reporting on the results of the famous 1968 football game and recent movie Harvard Beats Yale 29-29! It was a famous football game where the unbeaten Yale Bulldogs with quarterback Brian Dowling (BD of Doonsebury fame who hadn’t lost a football game since junior high) managed to squander a sixteen point lead in the game’s final two minutes.

In football games and elections, the outcome can differ from the actual result.

The special election in New York’s 23rd was fierce, hand-to-hand ideological combat with a platoon of national figures, millions of dollars and extraordinary media scrutiny. After the flood of last-minute momentum and attention, forcing the Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava from the race, and the loss of a seat that Republicans had held for over a century, the Republicans should be discouraged, right?

Wrong.

And Democrats, having added a seat that had been in Republican hands since Abraham Lincoln was president to their already solid majority should be euphoric, right?

Not necessarily.

To be sure it's great to have snagged this prize. Owens is solid, smart, and a hard worker; I've been impressed with his understanding of and support for environmental values and energy. He will be a contributor from the moment he is sworn in. He will represent the interests of a very moderate district. As such, he is likely to add to the complicated mix of moving legislation through the House. Democrats have experience dealing with a large tent so it is merely that, a complication.

He’s also going to be locked into a brutal reelection campaign that has already started. He will have a great big target on his back and a difficult district to defend. Owens will claim attention and resources from all the rest of us. We are, of course, glad to have him and to help.

Many Republicans are celebrating, despite the loss. The hard right, teabag, tin foil hat crowd are convinced that they won. After all, they were able to drive an established, respected, moderate Republican from the race (as she withdrew 72 hours before the election). They were able to take their candidate with, to be charitable, very modest credentials (who didn't even live in the district!) and bring him to the brink of winning a seat in Congress. The Republican base is exultant because they were able to drown out an occasional voice of reason and moderation (like Newt Gingrich, warning of the perils of becoming a party of angry, white men with limited educations). The “tea-party wing” whipped the party leaders in shape. To give Sarah Palin her due, she jumped at the opportunity to help lead the pack, but was soon followed by a stampede of Republican presidential wannabes and Republican office-holders who are convinced the reason they're no longer in the majority is that they weren't hard edged enough.

This will be trumpeted as a victory for the hard-liners; it will motivate Dick Armey and the Club for Growth to consider supporting more independents and true believers in primaries. Times cry out for civilized discussion and cooperation to deal with unprecedented problems, but Republicans will instead feel validated, indeed, obligated, to pursue the harsh, divisive tactics so disconcerting to watch these recent months.

The sharp right turn will energize their base and encourage a particular type of candidate likely to drive away thoughtful and independent people regardless of where they fall on the ideological scale. Ronald Reagan and Barry Goldwater could no longer win Republican primaries in the home states that they served so long and well.

The subtext of the raucous debate is that Republicans with their furious assaults are gaining no traction against Democrats. They have the lowest approval rating seen in decades. If they are successful in derailing healthcare, more Americans are going to blame them than blame Obama or Pelosi, if the Independents are to be believed.

As a result of Tuesday's election, a sad escalation of instability, unrealistic expectations and hard edged politics is likely. While this actually bodes well for Democrats in 2010 and 2012 as Republicans continue their headlong rush to embrace the most extreme and divisive elements, the Democrats’ gain is actually the country's loss. The only way we will successfully deal with our challenges of health care, education, the economy and fiscal situation, and our crumbling infrastructure is when we can have a rational conversation between the American people and their government. The fallout from the campaign in New York’s 23^rd District likely made that conversation harder than ever.

 

Follow Rep. Earl Blumenauer on Twitter: www.twitter.com/repblumenauer

Comments

[AMERIKA]

The United States works as a nation when we have a true two party system. I see the following unfolding"
1. The tea party movement takes over the Republican party for good, relegating it to a small local party of the South.
2. The Democrat Party splits into two with the conserve-a-Dems and conservative independents become the new centrist Democrat party
3. The Progressive and liberal wing of the Democrat party thrives and becomes the voice to the left of the Democrat Party

So we are left with a true three party system where the Republicans might actually fold and reemerge as the Conservative Party, a party well to the right of the current moderate Republican. The tea Party movement, Sarah Palin and so on seem to be the seed for this party. Although small, they will be a vocal and activist minority that we will have to encounter going forward. The members will be typically white males, Southerners by and large who are not well traveled or informed. Libertarians will have a home with this lot.

The Democrats will be a tad more conservative as a group than the current Democrat party with conservative independents and disgruntled republicans, along with conservative democrats among their numbers.

The Progressives will be the ones to watch. I predict a long reign of Progressive power...

[sociocanuck]

I would so like to see that reality. But consider here in Canada for counterpoint. We DO have a three party system (essentially conservative, centrist, left-of-center). Four if you count the Bloc, though they only run candidates in one Province. Five if you count the Green Party.

You'd probably have to ask AmandaBC for more details about the Green Party of Canada and how they differ from the Green Parties of the U.S. (hint: more progressive) and Europe (hint: far less progressive). I'm sure she won't be quite as disillusioned - probably unfairly - with them as I am, so can give you another perspective.

Anyway, my point is we DO have a Three (-Plus) party system, and our Progressive parties only manage to ride waves of support from "really Far" to "Very Far" away from ever forming a government. Mainly due to spoiling one another in virtually every riding, or being easily smeared with unfair labels that drive moderate voters to the Big Two.

This doesn't keep me from voting though, and always for that left-of-center option noted above. It's not the progressive force it was in its early years, but it's better than giving in to the temptation to just vote for the Winning Team, as chosen from the Big Two, despite the ideological chasm between them and me.

[AMERIKA]

Although I might be incorrect, I believe these United States to be a center left liberal democracy. I see the far right wing as libertarian rather than conservative, and personally, I have no trouble with conservatives, where conservative means to "conserve" ie, truly smaller government. I think that if you put a smaller government up against a progressive (smarter government), the progressive wins that argument. But you can't have that debate with a libertarian because they simply resort to name calling.

[Jonny38103]

The many disenfranchised Republicans who now call themselves Independents are not going to write as many checks or work as hard for the GOP as they would have before being run off by the hyper-conservative crowd. That does not bode well for the GOP in coming years.

[MThomasNC]

The conservatives may be delusional, but they have the massive bull horn spewing out all sorts of misinformation 24/7 that is repeated constantly by everybody on and in all forms of media. Unfortunately many ill informed americans believe the lies.

I thought the NY-23 race was much more important to the body politics than VA and NJ where both republicans ran as moderate candidates downplaying their conservative credentials. Independent voters go where the issues are discussed and the wind is in the positive direction. NY-23 conservative was spewing out stuff I know he didn't even believe. That's why he lost.

The democrats need to buckle down, get HC passed, Energy bill passed, jobs program and next year start immigration reform. Health Care, they must, absolutely must pass it - there will be NO second chance. Majority of americans want it passed even though the slim minority is making all the noise.

[GiovanniJones]

"and the loss of a seat that Republicans had held for over a century"

Except for 1983-1993 when a Democrat held that seat.

[strangelet]

I know it's confusing, but the references to long-term Republican control refer to the actual region of the state currently occupied by NY-23. In 1983-93, the district NY-23 consisted of pretty much the same area that is now NY-21, and which is pretty Democratic.

[TRex86]

All responsible adults regret the self-immolation of the Republican Party and would prefer a sane, rational conservative party willing to work in harmony for the good of mankind. Unfortunately, we don't have the luxury. Republican craziness is feeding on itself as they spiral towards oblivion. Their idea bank is empty. They came close to annihilating this country with fiscal recklessness and overseas adventurism. All they have left is hysteria, so unfocused and unhinged that its poster child is the highly incoherent, lachrymose Mr. Beck.
Moreover, if the roles were reversed the Republicans would be closing in for the kill, trying to finish off the Democrats. Ergo, the challenge to the Democrats is to stop the lamentation and use the power thrust upon us responsibly. If Republicans can't form a coherent thought we will try to help them. (Democrats do value empathy). On the other hand we need to stop dithering and go forward with our progressive agenda. It is urgent that we move towards a future in which mankind can live on this planet in peace and harmony. If the Republicans want to act as speed bumps--or roadkill--so be it.

[Guscat]

Great post! Oregon is very fortunate to have Rep. Blumenauer in Congress. It tells a great deal about their intelligence.