Sarah Palin: Thomas Eagleton, the Sequel

I'm going to break a self imposed rule, the one that says always allow breaking news to settle before deciding what it actually means.

Allow me to predict that, within the next week or so, Sarah Palin will withdraw from the Republican ticket.

She will become the new Thomas Eagleton.

Eagleton was the former US senator from Missouri who was briefly part of George McGovern's ticket in 1972, before it was revealed that he had undergone electro-shock therapy treatments to deal with "physical and nervous" exhaustion. After that news broke, Eagleton quit the ticket and was replaced by Sargent Shriver. Nixon won in a walk.

When she pulls out, Ms. Palin will say that she was wrong to accept John McCain's offer. She will tell Alaskans and the rest of America that her 17 year old daughter, Bristol, five months pregnant, needs her mother right now.

None of that will be untrue. But there are other factors that will undoubtedly affect Palin's decision.

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It is becoming increasingly clear that Sarah Palin is a victim of the failure of the McCain campaign to properly vet her as a candidate.

If Palin didn't know that last Friday, she knows it now.

Had McCain's people done the diligence, they would have known her home state's newspapers don't just question Palin's qualifications for the job, they deride them.

They would have realized that the troopergate story is real and will prove damaging. When the drip-drip-dripping finally stops, Madame Governor will have to own up to the emails and admit that, not only did she improperly interfere in the investigation of an ex-brother-in law, but she failed to come clean about it more than once.

Any investigators worth their salt would have concluded that Palin actually supported Alaska's bridge to nowhere, before she opposed it. That damages her image as McCain's reformer/soulmate, which is critical to her appeal.

And they would have heard that sound file of the incident with the talk radio hosts, in which Palin laughs when a political opponent of hers, a recovering cancer patient, was called a bitch and a cancer. That tarnishes the gloss even further.

But what hurts Palin's candidacy more than anything else is the breaking news about her daughter.

It hurts because Sarah Palin was a bone John McCain threw at the Republican right.

He had problems with evangelicals and thought she could help him there. And, for a news cycle or two, it worked.

But what are the evangelicals thinking now? A teen pregnancy for a prospective vice-president's unmarried daughter?

Even though some will say the decision to keep the baby is consistent with their beliefs on abortion, it's still not the news they want to hear.

Evangelicals are socially conservative. How many of them are calling members of their congregations today, asking whether this kind of thing would have happened had Sarah Palin given up her career to be there for her children?

The Bristol story won't necessarily damage Republican prospects with The Hillary Girls, who McCain also tried to woo by picking Palin.

But only the most gender-militant, Obama-hating Hilary Girl would have considered voting for this republican ticket anyway. Palin's opposition to abortion, even in cases of rape and incest, was always going to be a deal-breaker there.

Add it up, because that's what they're doing at the McCain headquarters right now: Palin's lack of qualifications + McCain's age and history of skin cancer + troopergate + the bridge + the radio incident + the unmarried, pregnant teenage daughter.

And you know there's more coming, because the real vetting has just begun.

Then consider: what does Sarah Palin, the woman we know today, as opposed to the one McCain introduced last Friday, actually bring to this ticket?

To me, someone who's old enough to remember the '72 campaign, it's looking more and more like Thomas Eagleton: The Sequel.

It's looking more and more like McCain/Pawlenty, or McCain/Romney '08.

Read more reaction from HuffPost bloggers to John McCain's selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate

Comments

[nikto]

Aw C'mon, Sarah Palin is a Maverick who will put America 1st.

Isn't that enough?

OK, she's not just a Maverick, she's a MAVERICKY Maverick. That's even better than a regular Maverick.

McCain is a Maverick, but Palin is Maverickier----MUCH Maverickier.

Palin is more Mavericky than McCain.

Way, way way way more Mavericky.

[frustratedinohio]

I thought she'd fit right in. She says nucular instead of nuclear.

[moonrider 73]

you got to love politics, If Gov. Palin was a Democrat those people at the Rep. convention would be saying what a poor choice this would be just like they do about Obama, and look down there long noses an call her daughter white trash. So now I know if Obama had been the Republican choice the overseas trip would have been hailed as the same great venue as the democrats did. So now that both sides are equal on that, I will be forced to use common sense, old republican who has made me laugh at his gaffs and memory problems and has showed me no judgement skills, or Obama who also has made some gaffs and brought a smile to my face but has left me feeling like he has some judgement. Well Obama you don't look like the faces on my dollar bills, your hair is to short, and I will admit I got goose bumps when I saw how you were embraced overseas, it took me back to a time when America were embraced. So you will get my vote Sir, don't let me down, hopefully I'll be around in 4 more years to vote again and will be smiling because my common sense was right.

[mountaingal]

Even if Palin withdraws she has already done a great service. Palin has revealed what most women had not seen--that McCain is anti-abortion, anti-sex education, anti-equal pay, anti-woman's rights. For some reason most women thought he was pro-choice because he was a "maverick." No longer.

But, I will miss the Skipper and MaryAnn combo--they were so cute!

[ThursdayAgain]

Am I mistaken in assuming that Ms Palin was pregnant when she eloped "way-back-when"? It doesn't matter to me (ma & pa never did tie the knot) but I don't quite understand her take on teenage pregnancy & sex education.

We stupid foreigners, eh?

[Miamisecretagent]

Apparently sex education is a learn-by-doing thing in the Palin household.

[GLaB]

Let's see if we can help you understand.

Barack Obama used to use drugs.
Barack Obama now is against drug use.

Times and people change.

See how easy that was?

[ignrnthllblly]

I'm afraid you are all guilty of thinking like Democrats. Republicans don't admit mistakes; they just become more infatuated with them, lionize them, erect personality cults around them. You can never cut a loss when you can never admit a loss.

No, Republicans in their quaint gaucherie follow the advice of Bucky Katt: If life hands you salmon, make salmonella.

[Appalled]

Ahhh, remember how outraged all the O'Reillys of the world were when Jamie Lynn Spears got pregnant? About how television was corrupting the morals of our youth, how her parents were terrible people, how in their day a young girl would hide in shame, not get millions of dollars for magazine covers?

Where are those old family values folks now? "Everybody makes mistakes." "Life happens."

Nope, no hypocrisy there.

[SueEll]

Let's get down in the gutter and gossip, spend days kicking this trash around. It's such a clever political maneuver -- throw Gov. Palin into the ring with her soap-opera-like life story, and draw the America public down off the wave after the successful Democratic Convention. And, more importantly, there are desperate families up and down my street (and elsewhere in the country) losing their homes to foreclosure -- that's what we should be talking about. Ask them, they'll tell you, there really isn't time for this.

[frynpan]

Also don't forget the Rove strategy....your weakness is your strength. She is not going to withdraw. But if she is as tough as they claim she is well, "Bring it on!"

[truesoccermom]

I disagree. I think MCain will be like Bush and give Palin a Congressional Medal of Honor and stick with her.

[jqcitizen]

truesoccermom-
Sarah Palin visited a foreign country for the first time in her life after getting a passport last year.
She visited troops in Kuwait and even fired a military rifle while there.

McCain will no doubt give her an "ATTA-GIRL' award of some sort but, the Congressional Medal of Honor is awarded for heroic action to war veterans. Pres. Bush, V.P. Cheney and most members of Congress are totally UNQUALIFIED for this particular award.

[filo]

Richard:
I agree she is the next Eagleton. I hate to quibble, but when she does step down she will never say it was a mistake. These are Republicans we're talking about. They never admit mistakes (see G W Bush ). She will say it due to "family needs" though. The drip, drip,drip will not stop until she steps down. I think by this time next week she won't know what hit her.
It is amazing to watch the Republicans try to spin this. You can tell that their heart isn't in it. I'm sure behind the scenes their is a lot of screaming and yelling going on. Rove is probably apoplectic over McCain's choice but he will never let on in public.
Maybe HuffPo can start a pool as to who is going to be McCain's next choice will be.

[BCubedReg]

You're dreaming. She's not going away. Palin is a winning ticket for McCain and for the republicans., the republicans don't care about governace or the people, only winning. Palin is a republican golden ticket. The right religious fundamentalist nutjobs only care about one issue. abortion, and Palin is on the right side of the argument to them.

Once again, the right has successfully manage to move the election away from the grave issues that face the american public today, War in Iraq/Afghanistan, Economy, Unemployment, Housing Market, Healthcare, Social security, Energy, Global Warming (and a laundry list of others), to the one hot button issue that brings every red voting conservative to the poll in droves, Abortion.

The right has successfully held hostage the entire country for decades over an issue that is a personal and private issue each woman must often face alone. This is all while the nations abject poor (living in homelss shelters, under bridges or wandering the streets) is over 37 million. If you look at those whose income is considered to be below the "poverty line" that number climbs to almost 100 million, in this supposed "greatest country in the world". That's Crap.

The republican party has stolen the dreams of this country through one issue , Abortion, and the american people are complicit in the theft.

[SueEll]

This was a really clever political move by the Republicans. Get the whole country's attention on Palin's soap-opera-like life story and away from the sensational and successful Democratic convention as quickly as possible. Put out that fame of enthusiasm spreading across the country and let's get back down in the gutter with the trashy little dramas playing out every hour, thanks to this nomination.

[Mariel]

how about McCain/Huckabee? But Huck is too liberal economically and not a globalist, not a member of the Council for Foreign Relations. So if they need another evangelical it will have to be Pawlenty.

Too bad the Terminator was born abroad. He would be an ideal CFR man to add to the CFR McCain.

The evangelicals would probably swallow the Mormon at this point, heaving a big sigh of relief.

He MUST choose an evangelical to have a chance to win, however. Pawlenty or Huckabee. Huckabee won more delegates than anyone except McCain. He would be the choice to win. But as I said, Huck is not CFR.

A narsty mess for all.

[thenextquagmire]

Just think of all the men and women, in history that were passed over for VP, with even more to give the country, at this time, than Sarah Palin. Now more than ever, this panicky nomination, is an insult to those people and to history. Maybe, the parties in the past had more respect for the office of the Presidency. Now,the Republicans, just wanting to win, are setting a very bad precedent. Her stepping down, depends on how arrogant the republicans continue to be, they need to save face, even though they really panicked, and if donors are still filling their coffers, they are gonna keep spending. Let them and watch them implode.