Vote Early and Often: California Wins in the Early Primary

Last year at this time, CNN ran a piece about the Courage Campaign's petition drive to move the California presidential primary forward from June to February 5th. Many doubted that our premise would be born out, namely that by having California competitive in the presidential primary, we might actually have a say in policy formulation and make long term political alliances that would benefit the state, not just export money to finance campaigns in other states.

Put simply, we were right. After the tumult of Iowa and New Hampshire and Michigan, followed Saturday by a first-ever caucus in Nevada and then an election in South Carolina, California has become a key "battleground" state for all of the leading candidates. While no one, least of all the pollsters, has a clue what will happen, the people of California have already won.

I remember four years ago, when as the Chair of the Dean Campaign in California, we could but sit and watch as Iowa and New Hampshire and then Arizona and New Mexico, decided that John Kerry would be the nominee. Not this year.

Last Friday, Senator Clinton visited East Los Angeles as the venue for a major policy speech on an economic recovery package. She was not in Arizona or New Mexico; she was right here, in the county with the most registered Democrats of any in the nation. Flanking her was the ever smiling Mayor Villaraigosa together with Speaker Fabian Nunez. And behind them was a gaggle of elected officials who undoubtedly went home with bruised ribs from elbowing each other to get in the picture next to the candidate. She has opened at least three offices in the state and her campaign team says she'll win the "ground game" here, something no one even tried in 2004.

(Even long time Clinton surrogate and hatchet man Chris Lehane, who would rather have his name in a news story than eat dinner, has been noticeably quiet. As you may recall, Chris Lehane was hired by the studios at the clip of $100,000 a month to break the WGA strike; perhaps the Clinton apparatus finally understands that the senator cannot effectively cultivate organized labor support while a family retainer is out selling his contacts in the media and politics to try to destroy everything for which organized labor stands.)

Senator Obama has held rallies up and down the state. He's due back here tonight for an already sold out fundraiser. But he also has a real campaign here. LA City Council President Eric Garcetti, one of his state co-chairs, tells me that the campaign has seven offices open. Former Dean organizer Buffy Wicks runs the field operation here and has already recruited and trained over 4,000 precinct captains. Steve Phillips, who has long championed greater political access for communities of color, founded a 527 called Vote Hope to engage those communities on behalf of Senator Obama and to keep building beyond the election.

Sal Rosselli, president of United Healthcare Workers West whose 150,000 member local voted to back Senator Edwards, tells me that Senator Edwards will be in LA for a rally at noon on Thursday with SEIU State Council President Anelle Grajeda and others. This follows a slew of visits to California by Senator Edwards, who is the conscience of this race. He was in Fresno, walked picket lines and spoke often about the inequalities that must be bridged in order to restore America's greatness. While the Edwards campaign does not have a permanent presence here, his West Coast fundraiser, Terri New, doubles as organizer, leading teams to Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada.

The CNN/LA Times poll yesterday showed that Senator Clinton leads in California with 47%, followed by Senator Obama with 31% and Senator Edwards with 10%. We only have to look to New Hampshire to understand the accuracy of the paid pollsters these days; the voters will decide based on what their friends and family say, not based on the media or paid ads.

Admittedly, I know far less about what is happening with the Republicans, but know they care so deeply about California that Governor Huckabee's campaign manager, Ed Rollins, has been leading the dirty trick initiative designed to steal 20 or so Electoral College votes for the Republicans. While we managed to keep that initiative off of the June ballot, Mr. Rollins still hopes it'll be back for November, dmonstrating clearly how the Republicans plan to use their skills in the dark arts over coming months. Regardless, expect to see more of Senator McCain, Governor Huckabee, Mayor Giuliani and Governor Romney, newly excited by his win in Michigan. They all need California to win the nomination.

Because this is all about delegates, we'll almost certainly have multiple winners from California. The Democrats give convention delegates to every candidate that achieves 15% or more from any congressional district. That means that a statewide poll that shows one candidate way ahead may not accurately predict the delegate count, which is the only count that elects the nominee. And it also means this race may go on well past February 5th.

The California primary has already transformed politics in this state. The residual from statewide organizing is evergreen. Because the candidates are actually building campaigns here, we have a huge opportunity in this state to take on the fundamental issues that hobble us and that our government refuses to address. Only through people power from outside of the system - and that means from the sorts of voters who are joining together for their various candidates--can we hope to fix the mess that Proposition 13 created thirty years ago, the result of an initiative system of "citizen government" that has run amok.

The Courage Campaign is running an online poll as an attempt to engage progressives up and down the state for whomever they choose. Unlike those who poll for a living, we do not pretend to be scientific. We seek to encourage opinion leaders to talk to their own social networks about the candidates. That's the best way to learn and ultimately the most effective way to persuade. Together with our partners in Ohio, Colorado, Michigan, Washington and Wisconsin, we've created an online horse race of sorts that requires people to convince their friends to vote. So far in California, Obama and Edwards are very close for first place, with Clinton and Kucinich working for third and fourth. But as we know, anything can happen.

"Tsunami Tuesday" is three weeks away, but we already know that progressives in our state have won by moving the primary forward.

Comments

[thatvisionthing]

Chintzy that you have to forward an e-mail to somebody before you can see the results of the Courage Campaign poll. Everybody, here's the overall rankings as of now, you're welcome...

1. Sen. Barack Obama
2. Sen. John Edwards
3. Sen. Hillary Clinton
4. Rep. Dennis Kucinich
5. Gov. Bill Richardson *
6. Sen. Mike Gravel

... and in some states Gravel is ahead of Richardson and Kucinich is ahead of Clinton. Hey! Does that get HIM in a debate and HER disappeared for once? Now that's a debate to look forward to.

[hollywood]

I want all primaries all the time! Let's just keep polling and funding and debating and voting forever! Just keep making and listening to promises! It's fun! Whee! Now, can somebody get back to Washington and do some damn work? And to Sacto (Nunez)? And to LA (Mayor Tony)? Let's try not to calculate the carbon footprint of this election fiasco.

[DANIELLECLARKE]

""ITS REAL SIMPLE PEOPLE""

Has your candidate made lots of $$$ from running businesses or by their influence ?

If your candidate has made Lots of $$$ from business or using their influence then SOMEONE SOMEWHERE HAS BEEN ROBBED to make them rich.

If your candidate only gets ahead because people admire them and so simple people buy a book about that candidate then THAT CANDIDATE HAS NEVER ROBBED ANYONE they just got the extra $ from the simple people donated by buying their book and so they were supporting a caring candidate who wasn't about influence peddling or business robbing with RICH CEO OWNERS.

SEE THE WEALTH OF THE CANDIDATES AND WHERE DID IT COME FROM

AND

KNOW WHO THEY REALLY CARE FOR AND AS YOU WILL SEE IT WASN'T WE THE PEOPLE THEY CARED FOR, IT WAS JUST THEIR FRIENDS

AND

IF YOU THINK YOU WILL BECOME ONE OF THEIR FRIENDS BY SELLING YOUR SOUL THEN GO FOR IT BUT UNDERSTAND THE REST OF US WHO DON'T,

KNOW YOU BY YOUR WORDS OF SUPPORT FOR THOSE CANDIDATES.

[gardenbookie]

The California decision for an early primary is one of the best moves the state has done in many, many years. Now if we could just put the entire country in the same time zone on Election Day.......... And then there's Hawaii. Hawaii should be an "all mail-in" vote state. (Maybe the whole country should do that. Nah, some jerk would come up with a way to count the ballots with a scanner or some other "high tech" way to manipulate the outcome.)
The best way for the presidential hopefuls to take California is stated in the title of this blog. "ATTENTION ALL ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS IN CALIFORNIA: VOTE EARLY ~ AND OFTEN!"

[AxelDC]

Why is the press so eager to declare "winners" and "losers" before events have played out?

I would wait to see how the primary season evolves before calling California a genius for moving up the primary. It could be that the last state plays kingmaker this year, and California forfeited that role by having its primary on the same date as 20 other states.

[Pacaba]

Of all of the talking and statistics presented here and on TV, does anyone know the following?
1) What has been the numeric turnout for each party in each state so far in 2008, and how does it compare with the numeric turnout for each party in 2004?
2) Just how many delegates does each candidate have as of this minute, and how many does it take to nominate?

[realitytrumpsbull]

California's another state that can't handle money. 148 billion dollar annual budget, and ALWAYS overbudget and by that token a burden on the rest of the country. HOW much of that just counts as a direct permanent sop to Mexico, and who cares who they vote for anyway if they can't deal with their own state problems? What a nutty place, I hope I never have to go there again, ever.

[tenayaca]

No Rick, Californians don't win if the media continues to control who we see in the debates that will be soon in our state. NBC is using the PUBLIC AIR WAVES and this is NOT a "private matter" as the boot-licking Nevada Supreme Court decided an hour before all of the Democratic candidates were to go on stage yesterday. We need to re-claim our right to hear all viewpoints by requiring FREE ACCESS by the candidates to the broadcast media that has been given this lucrative franchise by the people. TAKE BACK THE AIR WAVES!!!

[RickDowney]

People, please.

I get REALLY tired of this "rich versus poor" class mentality.

My parents would have had to sell their home and move away from California if Prop 13 hadn't passed. They bought their home in 1962 for $35,000, a price they could barely afford. It is not their fault that property values skyrocketed around them for the next 45 years. They are not wealthy. They live on Social Security. To think of them as "rich" just because their home is valued so ridiculously high is small minded. Open your eyes and look at the other things going on that are causing California to be broke. My girlfriend told me that the school system she works for is going broke because they are having to provide $600,000 per year worth FREE lunches to poor students, FREE healthcare to students of immigrants, and they are over budget on teacher salaries because they HAVE to spend more to pay bi-lingual teachers rather than teachers that ONLY speak English. Is that fair to you, the tax payers? If you want to live in a socialist society, you picked the wrong place. Get past your prejudices and look at the reality. Four hospitals in the SF Bay Area are going broke and closing because they can't afford to take care of non-insured people who use the emergency rooms because that's the only place they can get free care. I just spent three days in a jury pool for a trial where a family that is not even here legally was suing a doctor for malpractice. So the judge, the jurors, the courtroom, and the county taxpayers are paying for a family who is not even here legally to sue someone. THAT is the kind of thing that is breaking the bank in California, not some "wealthy" class of homeowners. I added up the taxes my parents have paid on their house even at Prop 13 rates, and it's over $100,000 since they moved there. There is NO way they have ever used $100,000 worth of county resources. Get real.

[drewdawgsea]

Did anyone see Hillary lying through her teeth again today? I seriously don't think she thinks before she speaks and she ends up contradicting herself and looking less presidential every day.

It needs to be pointed out that she said “Governmen­t-by-advis­er simply doesn’t work." Funny that she thinks this since it is at odds with her actions when she has stated that she did not read numerous bills in the Senate because she was "fully advised" by her advisors what was in the bill. That to me sounds like governing by adviser.

[research]

Californians, you are probably our last hope:

Put Kucinich in the top three or the corporatists win.

[spqesq]

When does Pennsylvania get to 'matter'? This system blows.

[bookish]

I support the Courage Campaign, and appreciate your work.

Prop 13 was indeed a disaster for California. I live in Fresno, Ca. We are the third world here. Yes, I am a homeowner, but I know that one must invest to have a decent civic life.

[AnninCA]

I agree with this blogger. It has revitalized California politics.

For once, it actually matters!

[DRaymond]

I was sceptical when California moved its primary up, particularly when other states tried sneaking in even earlier. But the fact that the primaries so far have been a split decision has proven me wrong.

I still am not enamored with this de-facto national primary though. I think some sanity needs to be returned before 2012.

I will say that whichever party does not have a presumptive winner on Feb. 6th is in trouble. If they both do not then they are both in trouble. After Feb 5th it will take a long time for enough extra delegates to be picked to give anybody a majority. That means a lot more weeks of acrimony and a lot fewer weeks of healing.