Tonight, at 11:35pm EST on a Sunday evening, President Obama announced that Osama bin Laden is now dead, thanks to U.S. action taken within Pakistan. This is a tremendous breakthrough in America's self-proclaimed "war on terror," and certainly newsworthy. More importantly, it is a rare but special moment of justice for all of the families who lost loved ones a decade ago. From a practical foreign policy standpoint, however, this development unfortunately raises more questions than it puts to rest.
First is the question of whether drone strikes in Pakistan will stop. According to the President, bin Laden was killed by a coordinated attack in Abbottabad, Pakistan. The President did not directly address the matter, but he did say the kill was successful thanks to coordination between the Pakistani and American governments. It would seem that as of right now, killing Osama bin Laden will not preclude further drone strikes or any other covert operations within Pakistan's borders, since additional al-Qaeda cells are operating in the country -- as long as the Pakistani government continues to provide such assistance as is necessary. If anything, the demonstrated success of using drones to at least locate, even if not kill, bin Laden will suggest to many in the CIA, Department of Defense and White House that their use is a cost-effective measure that clearly can deliver results.
Second is the question of how U.S. military engagement in the Middle East will change. Will forces be pulling out tomorrow? Absolutely not. Will the latest version of the timetable established by the White House be accelerated, bringing troops home sooner? Most likely not. Our troops will remain right where they are, at least for the foreseeable future -- and if they are brought home sooner than expected, it will not be thanks to Osama bin Laden.
This leads into the third question -- how this will impact al-Qaeda. The President said the organization, headed by Osama bin Laden, has been disrupted by our intelligence operatives and military personnel. The reality, however, is that the organization has nevertheless been running strong for the past ten years since 9/11, and of course longer before that. It is as much a matter of discussion in academic and policymaking circles today as it was then -- indeed, my class on terrorism this semester at the Fletcher School dedicated entire class periods to the study of al-Qaeda's ideology, activities and structure. In particular, the death of bin Laden will have little effect on the organizational hierarchy of al-Qaeda, which is sufficiently hydra-headed to ensure continuity of leadership. As it stands, bin Laden was hiding out in Pakistan for the past half-decade or so, and al-Qaeda has continued on. His death will not change anything.
There are additional questions that come to mind, and certainly another post altogether will be devoted to whether Osama bin Laden's death has an impact on the threat of nuclear terrorism as the U.S. security and defense establishment understands it. But this is a start. Any and all thoughts welcome.
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Killing Bin Laden both changes nothing, and changes a lot, and ignoring both of those realities are equally foolish.
I saw too many people who knew, not just deep down and denied, but openly and with full awareness, that their chosen lifestyle imposed costs on and harmed others to think that if Americans were to confront the costs and harms (active and passively imposed) their chosen lifestyles caused others that they would change their behaviours.
But without that self-confrontation taking place, conciously or unconciously, the behaviours and the costs and harms to others lmost always get worse and worse, and the wall of denial higher and harder to breech, until most of those who are bearing those costs and suffering those harms reach a point where they are no longer willing to put up with them, and the comfortable (for them) world of the abuser collapses around them.
Dead or alive, Â bin Laden is a symbolic leader of the al Qaeda movement, just as Martin Luther King has been a compelling force in the Civil Rights movement. Over in Pakistan and other areas of the Middle East, streets will be named Osama Bin Laden Avenue and OBL Avenue in honor of what they are fighting for, and carrying out bin Laden's "dream". Whether good or evil, symbolic figures impact cultural evolutions of the world we live in. It is a milestone and a significant day for America. But it changes nothing about the war that has been waged by al Qaeda.