Barack's Big Gamble ... And His Vision

History is a dialogue between humanity and time. And humanity's nothing more than the sum of individual behaviors - millions of them - behaviors that eventually become currents and patterns only visible at a distance. Barack Obama saw something in those patterns that everyone else missed. And he was sure enough of his vision to risk everything ... everything ... on what he saw.

Remember that period in August, right before the convention, when it looked like Obama was going the route of so many past Democratic candidates? When it looked like he was needlessly reaching out a conciliatory hand toward a party and a movement determined to destroy him? When the coming election was starting to look like a bout between Dukakis and Tyson?

Democrats have spent a generation scolding their losing candidates for being too high-minded and courteous. Now they're standing at the cusp of a new generation, congratulating their new President for the very same qualities they resented in candidates past. What changed? And why did Obama risk following a strategy that had failed so often in recent campaigns?

One possible answer: He was gambling. He was gambling that the political universe of 2008 was not what it had been in 2004, or 2000, or 1988. He could have run the old playbook this summer, the one so many of us were recommending. It looked like a safer strategy at the time.

But Obama didn't play it safe. And he stayed calm and focused - "one cool customer," as folks used to say - even when those around him were starting to panic. Coolness and intuition: the twin gifts of the successful gambler.

But if he was gambling, it was because he had a longer-term goal in mind: He didn't just want to win. He wanted to win in a way that would enable him to govern according to his particularly unific vision of governance. And he was so sure he would win - that the currents of history were with him - that he took a chance. He gambled that this time the politics of division would fail.

Some of Obama's supporters argued at the time that he was playing "rope-a-dope," letting his opponents exhaust themselves by throwing wild punches. Maybe. Yet those Republican moves had always worked before. Then came the economy, and the nomination of Sarah Palin, and the momentum shifted irrevocably away from John McCain.

Barack Obama could not have known that these things would happen. So, what did he know - to paraphrase the old Watergate expression - and why did he know it?

The "why" is hard to answer. Call it intuition, or instinct, or just a gambler's sixth sense. But Obama saw something in the zeitgeist. He drew it out from the confluence of economics, demographics, science, popular culture, and whatever else was shaping his thoughts. From the white noise, the static of endlessly flowing information, he saw a pattern - a hopeful pattern. There's no word yet for that kind of talent, the talent of perceiving the imperceptible patterns behind historical and social trends, then guiding them and shaping them for a given purpose.

Oh, wait. Yes there is. It's called leadership. It's nearly a lost art, but Obama's brought it back.

That doesn't make me a starry-eyed cult follower. The history of his Presidency has yet to be written. There are many stones in his path, and many people and ideas competing for his attention. But Barack Obama is an observer. Want to influence his Presidency? Add yourself to the flow of information, the ebb and flow of humanity. If enough like-minded people do the same, the current will shift in your direction. Barack Obama will be watching. (But let's not get overly dependent on Presidential-level leadership, either. Change happens on many levels.)

I didn't see what Obama saw two years ago. And yet I, and millions of others, eventually had the sense that what he saw was fundamentally right. Eventually people like me - people whose policy positions more closely matched those of other candidates - trusted their intuition about Barack Obama.

One person saw the shifting patterns of history. Then he had faith ... faith that the pattern was real and that his perception was accurate. With that faith, and nothing but that faith, he gambled on the outcome of this election. He gambled that he could win without practicing divisive politics ... even when that would have been safer course. With that faith he took the course of history and molded it to achieve what seemed impossible.

With that faith, whatever happens next, Barack Obama has already changed the world.

RJ Eskow blogs when he can at:

A Night Light
The Sentinel Effect: Healthcare Blog
Future-While-U-Wait

Read more reaction from HuffPost bloggers to Barack Obama's victory in the 2008 presidential election

Comments

[SadButWiser]

If I may add my two cents. I think the most impressive reason of his success is the execution of his plans. You could have the best vision and plans, but if you mess up in the execution part, you fail. His campaign may have had plan B and C for every possible outcome, but I would assume that they only had one execution plan. There was never that let's try this and see if it works strategy. Hillary and McCain had this, and it did not work. So it was not just about vision and inspirational oratory ability that got him the presidency, though that helped, it was the supreme management of the entire campaign that go him the trophy.

And you have to give it to him, the man does have substance too, not just style. In fact, this is the first time I see style and substance competing for attention and attraction against each other in a man.

[Querent]

Obama is not the offspring of the gods. He is not divine, although he clearly is very gifted. He has not been sent to us by destiny, although he clearly is in the right place at the right time.

He is a leader. We need a leader. That's enough. Please, everyone, stop mythologizing him.

[ThunderDolt]

I recall an endorsement in which the republican leaning columnist indicated that he was supporting Obama because Obama was the only conservative running for president.

Granted, America is a conservative country and always will be but the thing about what is considered conservative is defined by the times. We have received these conservative dictates from those with the power and influence to thrust them upon us. It happens in practically every segment of our society through out time¦..the sun revolves around the earth¦rock and roll is just noise¦milk does a body good¦.

I was listening to some obnoxious guy on the radio the other day, I think on the golden shower radio network, claimed there was nothing wrong with the conservative philosophy. If a republican ran on the conservative philosophy they would have won the presidency.

The fact is an American did run for the presidency on a conservative platform.
That mans name was Barack Obama.
That mans title is now President-elect.

[Querent]

In your dreams. America is not a conservative nation. Obama is not a conservative. Conservativism is dead.

[TRYKER]

Obama is the microcosm of the effects of the world's ills on the macrocosm of society. Everything he lived through and suffered informed him and his education revealed to him that something indeed can be done.
He is a man driven by an inner spirit that thrives on potential and solutions to problems that others only falter at, giving up too quickly.
When he says "we are better than that" and then shows he is "better than that", we have a vision to follow.
It really got everyone's attention when he didn't follow the urges to get in there and "get ugly" and "go for the kill" and act likesome rowdy teen-aged hothead. He was the better man...he didn't tell us all to get our heads outof our asses and shame us, he showed us.
You just knew that not having a father to guide him had inspired him to act like a father should act, and to be a good model and leader.
Many Americans opened a place in their hearts for this fatherless welfare kid who got an education in spite of his many roadblocks, who had a loving educated wife who also came from the bare bones of America. Their struggle was our struggle, they knew what they were talking about. One house, one car, one wife...everyone could relate.
How much more American can it be to elect a man President that had only recently paid off his student loans?! What a story.

[Russycle]

I think some credit should go to Huff Post and other blogs that were quick to discredit the smears of McCain and his supporters, and to Olbermann, Maddow , and the (few) other journalists who deflated many of the Republican talking points. Wasn't much of a liberal presence on the web or broadcast media in 2000 or 2004.

[cobobs]

That uncanny ability and will to follow through over 2 grueling years is why the majority of Americans elected him to be President, and most of us have rolled our sleeves, ready to give the next step in that vision our all.

[fionamacknz]

Because we elected Obama and not McCain, the world has opened its arms to us again. This nation, made a pariah by our inexcusable international behavior, has been given an undeserved second chance at the respect we formerly enjoyed. I hope we value this opportunity and take care of it.

[harriscrl3]

I think part of what did it was his vision of America. He saw the ideal America at a time when people lost hope in it at a time when people thought that we were on the decline. We stopped dreaming somewhere along the lines and we thought the world as it was is how its suppose to be. We lost our idealism in America and what he did was restored it. HIs story his vision captured that idealism and we started believing it was real because we saw it in him and when he became a leader even though the other side tried to capitalize on it saying he was being presumptious Americans welcomed it because we needed a leader and he filled that void.

Carol

[Freesia2]

Great article Mr. Eskow. His "vision" isn't just a word is it? It's a tool. It worked.

You mentioned something that I've been thinking about from a different angle. You said that he saw "patterns"....All my life I've wanted to be able to draw. I don't mean I have illusions that I might end up in a cold water flat in Paris going through my black and blue period. I mean I'd like to be able to doodle. Just doodle. So I started doing some reading (art classes aren't in my budget) and I bought a book or two. One thing that was explained is that the secret of an artist isn't seeing the object they want to draw. It's seeing the shadows and the lines and images surrounding the object. If you see those, capture those, then you see the thing you're drawing for what it is - not a one thing but something made up of many things.

I think he kind of sees the world like an artist. He doesn't see "the problem" he sees every little detail that connects to make the problem. He sees America as a sum of all it's parts. He sees the patterns. ( If that makes sense.)

And I hope he has better luck with the art of presidency than I do with my pencil. I believe he will. I'm stick - figure. He'll be a da Vinci.

[Grunty1]

What Obama did was nothing like the other years mentioned. Those candidates raced towards the center, changing their tunes to fit a different audience. Obama reached out to the right, but did NOT change his messages, his plans, his promises. He was CONSISTENT and didn't let the smear machine take over the campaign.

[twiggy2]

obama's campaign has always been about the people, the american people he will serve as president of the u.s.a.

[AJH]

Honestly I found him courteous in a different way. Other candidates were courteous by not being overtly dirty. Obama was courteous by being explicitely courteous. Likewise past candidates courtesy was belied by a more belicose approach to policy differences while Obama was also courteous in agreeing to disagree but work to common goals. A moderate to conservative watching got the impression obama was putting goals on the Board and completely willing to negotiate implementation methods. Neither Kerry or Gore gave that impression.

Obama's demeanor matched the policy rhetoric and I think therefore made it believable to more people. In short kerry looked angry attacking bush policy and Obama looked calm and certain.

As someone who loved westerns and John Wayne as a kid Obama came across as John Wayne. Willing to fight but in a calm confident manner and never really relishing the fight.

Not to mention did you see any pictures of Obama windsurfing or in a brand new hunters suit making an attempt to not be himself to tamp down a particular demographics fears. Obama came across as himself and not pretending to be anything else. Perhaps the biggest lesson of this election is be true to yourself. Bush was in 2000 and 2004 and I'ld argue both gore and kerry appeared not to be kerry far more than gore. And McCain clearly appeared to not be himself in pandering to the far right of his base.

[WillNYC]

well he did try to bowl once....

[edwcorey]

Maybe his ball went in the gutter, but he never did.

[HurryUp1212009]

There's no such thing as luck. "Luck" is the confluence of talent and opportunity. Obama has incredible talent at exactly the time the country needs his talent, and that's the opportunity he has: to become the next FDR and lead us out of the mess Herbert Hoover Bush has made of this country and our economy.

[caterpol]

I think he got our attention with a powerful charisma, and then REFOCUSED our energy----whether that was anger, fear, or despair-----and got us organized. Got us involved in the political process once again, and kept reminding us it was our country.

Everyone running for office is essentially gambling.

[joesnuffy]

When someone wins, it's easy to look back and see what a genius he was. But, maybe it wasn't all that calculated. Maybe this is just who Barack is and who democrats, in general, are. The democratic party has become the party of decency (Carter, Clinton, Gore, Kerry). These are all intelligent, decent people that want to do things the right way. Taking the high road hasn't worked in the last two elections (you could argue, though, that it worked in 2000). But, it worked in this election. Staying on a positive message and out of the gutter is not a new strategy. It just happened to work this time. I'm a big Obama supporter and really appreciate his intelligence and integrity, but let's not put him up on too high of a pedestal. I would give a lot of the credit to the American people for doing the right thing this time.