The last set of positive scenarios for the Democratic Party is disappearing, leaving a series of increasingly unattractive options in its place. The Party is at risk of becoming collateral damage in the Clinton campaign's war for the nomination. If the Clinton team has found a pathway to the nomination that won't decimate the Party's chances in November, now would be a good time to share it.
It may not be enough just to persuade superdelegates to overrule the primary process and vote for her. Since the arithmetic's overwhelmingly against her, she may also need to convince the party to seat Michigan and Florida's ill-gotten delegates.
The only way that's not a complete disaster for the party is if a) Obama avoids going negative against her in response to her slash-and-burn tactics of the past week, b) she wins Pennsylvania and the horsetrading takes place immediately thereafter, and c) Obama is persuaded to abide by (and actively endorse) that deal by accepting the VP slot. Even so, a number of currently-mobilized volunteers could well be disillusioned and withdraw from the process.
And how likely is that scenario, anyway? Not very. Obama's already turning up the campaign rhetoric, so we're going to have two more weeks or more of the two remaining candidates slashing away at each other while McCain plays elder statesman. Clinton's negative tactics paid off for her personally this week, but at tremendous cost to the party. If Obama wins the nomination now, the Republicans will have heavy artillery to use against him -- artillery built and hand-delivered by Sen. Clinton and her campaign.
Now Obama will respond, as he must to stay in the race. That will provide heavy artillery for McCain to use should Clinton become the nominee. It's unlikely that Obama will concede to Hillary and join her ticket, even if she wins Pennsylvania, if -- as is likely -- he continues to hold leads in both pledged delegates and votes.
So the race will probably go on through August unless Clinton suffers a decisive loss in Pennsylvania. Unless that happens -- which isn't the way it looks now -- a 'cascading failure' scenario kicks in, with two candidates continue to fracture the party and damage each other until the convention.
The best of all possible outcomes at that point would be for Obama to win the nomination at the convention (or shortly beforehand.) He will be damaged by her tactics, but at least he can enter the general election with a legitimate nomination. The only possible way Clinton can get the nomination after the "cascading failure" point is by clearly overruling the primary process as laid out by the party.
The historical analogies used by some Clinton supporters to justify the superdelegates-overruling-the-primaries scenario (repeated here) don't hold water. That was then, this is now. Those nominations all took place before the party undertook reforms to ensure that the Democratic candidate reflected the popular will of the Party. Democrats today expect no less. A nominee whose selection overrules the primary process and is seen as a back-room maneuver will divide the party, demoralize its activists, and alienate an entire generation from political activism. And while I initially dismissed the more apocalyptic scenarios, a piece like this one leaves me less sure they couldn't happen -- and in any event these discussions certainly reflect the level of anger and disaffection that would be felt if these tactics were to hand Clinton the nomination.
The Party has already sustained serious damage as a result of Clinton's campaign decisions of the last week. There is no way to undo that. The question is how deep and how lasting the damage will be. Under this battle is ended in Pennsylvania, the wounds may well prove lethal. And the only scenario for ending this in Pennsylvania is a decisive Obama victory.
This week was a decisive win for two interested parties: the Republicans and the press. The GOP benefits from a self-destructing party whose two leading candidates continue to wound each other for weeks and months to come. The press benefits by having the horserace continue as long as possible between the woman and the black man. It's a great story. Anyone who thinks the press is "in the tank" for Obama - or Hillary - should understand that they're only in the tank for this: a good story, at any cost.
There are those who will argue that I'm not looking at this process objectively. Fine, then you tell me -- realistically -- how Sen. Clinton can win without overruling the primary process and therefore causing significant harm.
If there is any scenario for her continued candidacy that grants her victory and doesn't gravely damage Democratic chances, it's incumbent upon Sen. Clinton to tell us what it is. Otherwise the Party's sole goal should be to end her campaign as quickly as possible, before any more harm is done. How likely is that? Not very. That leaves the party with a probability of victory in November that diminishes with each passing week between now and August, unless a decisive victory brings an end to to the conflict.
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But then I read it again. The best of all scenarios for you is that she loses Pennsylvan
I think we just need to be patient and let this thing play out and we need to be as fair as possible to voters. Hey, as a Hillary supporter, I'd like to say your guy has no business in this race. He doesn't have enough experience
I don't see how this has anything to do with race or gender. Quite simply, Senator Clinton's campaign has openly chosen to violate Reagan's commandmen
By the way, I noticed that while you criticized this post in a Clintonian
She can't. And neither can Obama get the nomination without the superdeleg
I heard something on the radio today that put things in perspectiv
It does not have to be a primary. It does not have to be a caucus.
Send a SASE (self-addr
This is a far less expensive option than a primary, and a far more inclusive process than a caucus. Stop over thinking Michigan and Florida, and let's hear what they have to say, and do it more fairly and within new agreed upon rules.
The candidate that offers this solution will be viewed as the greater statesman.
http://blo
Florida? Clinton had 50% of the vote, Obama 33%, Edwards 14%.
Solution: Edwards pledges his delegates to Obama and let the primary results ride.
The problem is, any solution to this apparently has to be approved by both campaigns. I'm not sure why that matters, the DNC sets the rules for nomination
To that end, Hillary will never accept the solution you've posited. She won't accept any solution that doesn't give her a massive advantage - that's why she's pushing this in the first place. She doesn't want fairness or voter enfranchis
In the end, she may get it, at the cost of the election in November and a very large number of swing voters and new voters who will again decide that hey, politics really doesn't matter because their voice doesn't matter anyway.
Look at the post from Timma. He calls it "Drowning the stage in tears" when she choked up. He says she uses "Bravada war rhetoric " (when did that occur?). He said she stooped "To make the political arena a blood sport". Senator from Punjab, Hillary is a monster, the 1984/Hilla
And then so many Obamites, on sites like this, angrily swear they will vote for John McCain rather than Hillary Clinton. I say call them on it. Your vote defines your politics. Maybe you can be like the Reagan Democrats and screw the party for decades.
Remember folks. If it wasn't for Bill Clinton, we would have had Republican Presidents for the last 26 years. Bill changed that momentum and created the most positive Presidency in my lifetime. The CBO said that with Clinton's surpluses, the National debt would have been eliminated by 2008 (instead of doubled as it is now). Then Al Gore was going to follow up and put that surplus into a lockbox to insure Social Security and Medicare. That dream is long gone and many Democratic party members who enjoyed the 90's are bringing out the long knives for Bill Clinton. Shameful!
You ARE aware, aren't you, that something like 15-20% of Obama's base are Independen
Party loyalty is second to personal judgement. If I think Hillary shouldn't be in the White House, I'm not voting for her. That simple.
If the Clinton team has found a pathway to the nomination that won't decimate the Party's chances in November, now would be a good time to share it. ( R J Eskow ) Decimate = 10% = from decimus tenth, from decem ten )...
How about Obama's "stealth" Negative (Fear Based) Campaign..
Is NOT that a Negative, don't trust anyone but Obama, ongoing Ad??? He has used that with a Free Pass from the MSM, from the very start of his Campaign..
I suppose the Obama's playing the Race Card is Positive??
Hillary and others did NOT Vote to go to War as Obama lies and spins... They in Fact, voted to go to the U.N. first and use Military Force, as a last resort... Is WAR supposedly the ONLY Military Option/ Response possible??
The state of Texas is absolute proof of the unfairness of the caucus system.
Hillary wins by 100,000 votes, yet Obama wins the caucuses.
Michigan is a state where over 2 million voters marked their ballot.
A caucus there would allow the voting of about 100,000 people, hardly a representa
Obama excels in the caucuses because his demograpic has the time to go to the damned things, and Hillary's working class supporters are doing just that; working. And the open voting intimidati
The Clinton campaign should be screaming bloody blue murder if Michigan changes that horse in the middle of the stream unfairly favoring Obama. Get the lawyers out and stop this dumb idea in it's tracks!
I voted for him in the primary lukewarmly ( they're not really much different, but I hoped it could accelerate some decision in the Party) but I don't think he can expect to have a smooth slide into home- it's not the nature of the game. and finger pointing can go in several directions
If the A.A vote decides to take their ballot s and go home or vote for Mccain , will we be blaming him as a spoiler the way we did Nader? Oh no - Obama supporters have only one answer - it's Hilary's fault.!
Ugh... this again? He didn't praise Reagan. What he said was that Reagan changed politics, as did Bill Clinton. He didn't speculate on whether Reagan was good or bad, only that he changed things. That's akin to pointing out that the sky is blue.
As for saying the Republican
One thing that's most likely come out of all this is a change in the Democrats primary system.
"Bill was a leading intellectu
Please, spare us. Bill Clinton was a great Democratic president, no doubt about it.
But "a leading intellectu
Whatever you're on, I want some!
That is of course unless you favor baptist preaching!
I always liked the fact that he was a Rhodes scholar. Gave him a certain... authority.
As for whether he's an infinitely superior orator to Obama, well, I'd say that's debatable but I'll say they're definitely at least equal.
Weird part is? I've known people who were vastly better speakers than BOTH Clinton and Obama... Clinton and Obama both have this tic that annoys the heck out of me, a tendency to break what should be eloquent, contiguous sentences into distinct parts. The most powerful oratory is not memorized, but sounds like it is. Neither of them sound that way.
That's not really here nor there, and I'm not really disagreein
By now it's painfully obvious that Clinton is much more ambitious than she is patriotic and she loves her career MUCH MORE than she could ever love the people of this country. It is time for her to finally put the country first and step down. I hope she realizes that sooner rather than later.
Her hypocrisie
It's going to be stolen in some way I can just feel it. She will stop at nothing. Including saying that the republican candidate is better suited for the white house than her competitio
Her scorched earth campaign of negative ads and comments against Obama is going to have Obama come out as a crippled, wounded, and bloodied nominee against McCain.
It will take a lot of inspiratio
Obama should tell Hillary: "Shame on you Hillary for sinking the hopes of millions of young and aspiring Democrats"
Hillary: please run for office in Ireland, and tell them again, your excellent "crisis management skills" at 3am in the morning.
By the way, has Hillary, the feminist's champion, ever apologized to the women whom her husband used? Did she ever say she was sorry for castigatin
Her tactic make no sense, and only serve to build up a McCain win in the fall and rip the Democratic Party apart. And don't bother calling me an obmamaniac or anything else - I've voted Red my whole life, and this is the first time I'm considerin
Please, Hillary supporters