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RJ Eskow

RJ Eskow

Posted April 29, 2009 | 12:54 AM (EST)

ObamaHealth: The Prognosis at 100 Days


We can find out which medical treatments work best with "clinical effectiveness research" (CER). Newt and Hillary both love it - but some people are against it just because the President supports it. They say these measurements would be too "arbitrary." Well, speaking of arbitrary measurements ...

It's Day 100. That's early to draw any conclusions, but people will anyway (bringing to mind Henny Youngman's opening line, delivered as he walked out on stage: "How do you like me so far?") A fairer measurement might be: How have these 100 days measured up against expectations? Giving a single grade would be too arbitrary, so we'll give several instead, like doctors do when they check your vital signs:

Building Public Support

So, has the President been effective at articulating the need for health care reform? Has he been building a broad base of support for the idea that we need to change the system? What, are you kidding? This is Obama we're talking about. When we talk about communications we're in his house - and it shows in the polling numbers.

You'd think that the economic crisis might lead people to conclude "we can't afford health reform right now." While that's a familiar refrain in Congress, the public's singing another tune. An April poll by the Kaiser Foundation shows that "59% of U.S. residents believe health care reform is now more important than ever," while only 37% say that "reform would be too costly to attempt during the current economic climate."

That's a home run for the President.

How did he achieve these numbers? First, by adopting a position forcefully supported by Peter Orszag (according to Ryan Lizza's New Yorker profile): that health reform, if done correctly, is deficit reduction. The New Yorker piece describes Orszag's "obsession" with "the findings of a research team at Dartmouth showing that some regions of the country spend far more money on health care than others but that patients in those high-spending areas don't have better outcomes than those in regions that spend less money." That would be the Dartmouth Atlas of Health Care, designed by Dr. John Wennberg. It's a critical tool for understanding how healthcare works in this country.

Orszag's fascination with this kind of research has pushed ideas like CER and results-based doctor reimbursement to the forefront, and Obama's been able to communicate the notion that reform can be cost-effective, despite scare-mongering on the topic from his opponents. That's a big win.

Grade: A+.

Staffing

It wasn't supposed to be this way. By now Health Czar Tom Daschle was supposed to have used his DC experience, his insight into the healthcare system, and the power vested in him by the President to launch health reform in a broad and dramatic way. But the Daschle nomination was derailed and the HHS spot stayed open. Things should start to pick up with today's news that Kathleen Sebelius' nomination is moving forward.

Progress in filling top health positions has been slow, as the Washington Post points out. This was inevitable, given the delay in filling the top slot, and it should change now. And while there was some grumbling in the press about empty seats during a potential epidemic, there's nothing to suggest that the interim players haven't been covering things just fine.

Power is always decentralized in Washington, and even more so when the President is a consensus-builder by nature and by choice. In the absence of a 'czar,' influence has coalesced around players like Peter Orszag and Sen. Max Baucus. Orszag has been exploring some of the more interesting corners of health policy research, while Baucus has defined core principles for the Democratic leadership.

Then there's Ezekiel Emanuel, the physician who's also a martial arts black belt (thus capable of controlling both supply and demand for his services). Dr. Emanuel (yes, he's Rahm's brother) is on Orzsag's staff. He's a contrarian and innovator by nature. He'll probably serve as an idea generator and internal gadfly.

The President also appointed David Blumenthal, M.D., as his Health IT Coordinator. Dr. Blumenthal's a health policy expert, not a techie, so he'll probably focus on building an information base for policy objectives. With them all, Obama seems to be building a healthcare team that's strong on imagination and execution.

Grade: B (but expected to rise soon).

Policy Development

We're not much closer to a health policy blueprint than we were on Inauguration Day. Is that a flaw? Not necessarily. Health analysts used to speak of the three qualities of medical care delivery as structure, process, and outcome. Most people focus on structure and outcome, but the President is very much a "process" leader.

We're still in the "process" stage. It began when the President indicated that he'd like to have a consensus bill that includes significant Republican support. While he hasn't withdrawn that statement, he has indicated that he's willing to pass a health bill through the reconciliation process if necessary. That suggests he has basic policy goals he won't compromise, and that he'll override the GOP if necessary to enact them.

What are they? He's not giving specifics yet. He's sketched out broad objectives - rewarding cost-effective medicine, health IT, universal access, and choice - but that's about it. He stood apart from candidates Clinton and Edwards last year in his opposition to health mandates, saying they hadn't been proven necessary to achieve universal coverage. He's not saying that now, and he may have signalled a walk back from that position when he indicated that key reform provisions will be designed in Congress. (Max Baucus supports mandates.)

He's also staying flexible on the "public plan option," which would allow people to buy into a Medicare-like program that would compete with private insurers. As we discussed earlier (in The Sentinel Effect and a radio interview with Bill Scher), these two issues are the defining areas in the struggle to define health reform - both practically and politically. A plan that requires people to buy coverage, but only from private insurers, would be a difficult sell.

Is he behind schedule on defining his health policy? That's the wrong question. He's on a different schedule, one that favors process over policy. He's using the first half of 2009 (or so) to build consensus. If that means leaving critical questions unanswered for now, he's prepared to do that.

Grade: If you want to grade him on outcome already, you don't understand the President.
__________________

So where does this leave us? President Obama has not backed down from his commitment to health reform. That means something will be proposed this year, and something will be enacted into law. "Don't talk too soon," said Bob Dylan, "the wheel's still in spin." Turning this process into a meaningful outcome will probably be even harder than the President and his team expect. But it's not impossible - and, as we keep getting reminded, it's needed even more when times are hard.

RJ Eskow blogs when he can at:

A Night Light
The Sentinel Effect: Healthcare Blog

We can find out which medical treatments work best with "clinical effectiveness research" (CER). Newt and Hillary both love it - but some people are against it just because the President supports it.
We can find out which medical treatments work best with "clinical effectiveness research" (CER). Newt and Hillary both love it - but some people are against it just because the President supports it.
 
 
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03:08 PM on 04/29/2009
I've come to understand Obama's position on health care a little better since the campaign. It was that online forum he held; he addressed single payer coverage specifically, and said that employer based coverage is what most people have, so we have to build on that and "fill in the gaps." His point was basically that if we could start from scratch we might build a single payer system, but because an employer based system has evolved in this country, we have to work with it.

I've come to believe that the Ralph Nader, Michael Moore approach (although I think these guys are brilliant) to health care is too extreme. We do need reform: more affordability, more people covered, but we do not have the right circumstances for single payer.
06:20 PM on 04/29/2009
We don't have anywhere near the right mindset at all to make truly effective health care reforms. We're going at things backward, asking "how much coverage/care can I get for $X ?", when we should be asking, "How much will X amount of coverage cost me, and can we haggle on the price, knowing that I'd rather have more care than I need now, but might need it some day in case of an emergency or unforseen incident (like becoming the parent or relative to a chronically critically disabled child who will live 30 or more years, but will never be independent, and will likely spend the majority of his/her life in and out of the hospital, surgeries and procedures)?"
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Chernynkaya
02:32 PM on 04/29/2009
The arguments against a single payer health plan are that it will ration health care and require waiting lists, and it'll be too expensive and inefficient.

So what? That's a big improvement over NO health care! I have had employer health benefits which paid for virtually nothing and I couldn't afford the co-pay for hospitalization. Plus, even that was a burden on my employer. Now, I have no health care at all.

I don't need health insurance, I need health care. Any health care- even if I have to wait, even if I can't get a hip replacement, even if I have to share a hospital room. Believe me, it's better than an undiagnosed and untreated illness.
06:14 PM on 04/29/2009
it must be nice to live in a world where you at least are so healthy that all you have to worry about is the possibility of a broken hip, which, sure you could wait to get treated for. The rest of us, at least 19.3% of us who are classified as disabled (according to Y2K census statistics) don't have the luxury of waiting 4-6 months for treatment of literally life threatening illness and/or complications that come with being permanently disabled since birth. Single Payer OR Universal Health care vis a vis a European Style system can, and often times is deadly to those of us who have to have our care delayed. And, there is no way to avoid waiting times for even the disabled, as more and more people are brought into the system and put strain on doctors, nurses and other health care professionals who take care of us. It just is not feasable.

So, I'm sorry if I'm not more sensitive to your fear of a broken hip when my freedom and humanity are threatened
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jeffrey678
You don't happen to make it. You make it happen.
10:38 AM on 04/29/2009
The largest Auto Producing area in North America is Ontario. This is due to Universal Health Care. Industries that produce wealth in this country will fail or move to countries with Universal Health care. The US deficit will rise because of loss of health insurance, loss of jobs, loss of income producing industries. It's a nasty cycle. Medicare for all. What's your solution?
10:56 AM on 04/29/2009
My solution (not that anyone asked) would be to sever the ties between the FDA and BigPharma that are responsible for the deaths of millions of people every year by giving us substandard and often dangerous drugs just to fulfill their bottom lines and fill their pockets. Then Nationalize the insurance industry and put them through a rigorous "Stress test" or "cost benefit analysis" to make sure they are giving us the best possible medications and technology and equipment possible. The improvement in these areas would dramatically cut down on the insurance profit margins, and give the patients several options of what is the best treatment available for a particular individual situation. One of the biggest problems is the misdiagnosis of disease and ailments that lead to unnecessary hospitalization and over medication that leads to worsening of conditions or downright damage to a person's health
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
2warvet
I have nitrogen narcosis, what's your excuse?
10:03 AM on 04/29/2009
Ah yes, the age old debate about a single payer health care system. If you really think it is a better way to go, then visit a country that has it. If you go to the UK their entire system is a governmnet run agency. Docs, nurses, orderlies are all on the government payroll. Hospitals, pharmacys, and clinics are all owned by the government. The cost associated with this is enormous.

A single payer system is supposed to have a network of private and public owned clinics and the docs, nurses, etc will not be government employees. HOWEVER, the care will have to be under a cost control, which means how will this drug or treatment weigh out vs the cost. If it is decided that it is not cost effective the treatment or drug will not be covered, even if it works better than anything currently available.

Big Pharma is for profit and will only develop drugs that will help make money. Big Pharma is a HUGE money drain and usually does not turn a profit unless they hit on a big drug, like Viagra. Government cost controls are the reason many phamacutical companies have quit producing some drugs, like flu vaccines. Why would they when the government has it set that they, the government, pay less for the drug than it cost to make.
10:16 AM on 04/29/2009
Contrary to popular belief of those who still live in the Single Payer Utopian fantasy, services WILL be cut or phased out, and services will be rationed, (this was just announced last week in the UK!) even as costs DO go up. It is a natural part of keeping the balance to keep prices down. Many of us have known this for decades, because we lived in Europe, and have seen its affects. This will not affect the majority of healthy Americans, who are obsessed with those who they can control by forcing them to stop smoking, drinking, and eating junk food. This WILL however affect many millions of us who can not be held responsible for being born with a condition we had no control over, and yet consumes our lives as we strive to spend 20,30,40 or more years of our life going in and out of hospitals, undergoing surgeries and treatments and being put on ungodly amounts of medications just to keep a decent, not even high quality of life
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HUFFPOST PUNDIT
FZliveson
Beating the Conundrum
09:39 AM on 04/29/2009
Obama was ELECTED for crissakes. He needs to stop campaigning and appoint the people to positions and get stuff handled. The one thing George W. Bush was good at was getting stuff done, albeit mostly bad. Stop carping about everyone needing to be patient and that we need to watch the wizzard build his team. The team should be in place with a bead of sweat on their brows and results pouring in like walk-accrosses from the southern borders. "Building popularity my A$$."
09:54 AM on 04/29/2009
the man has something like near 70% popularity/favorability. WHat more do they want? I'm tired of people saying he can multitask, then when we raise an issue that THEY don't care about, they tell us "he's got so much on his plate right now, that will have to wait", meanwhile, the longer health care reform is delayed (and it is being wrongly fought anyway so it might not matter) the more people like me who will die
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HUFFPOST PUNDIT
FZliveson
Beating the Conundrum
10:13 AM on 04/29/2009
I think I agree...Obama needs to get the job done and stop fawning for approval.
Those people need to be IN PLACE and KICKING A$$.
(You're not the only one in fear for his life, brother! (:>) )
08:44 AM on 04/29/2009
This entire debate is a sham. Complete and utter sham. People have their priorities backward. We are asking, "How much coverage can I get for $X ", when we should be asking "How much money do I have to pay for X amount of coverage, knowing I may never use it, but want to have it in the unfortunate chance that an accident or tragedy (such as a child born with an uncureable unpreventable disability) occurs"

And that isn't even discussing the utter and complete failure of the FDA and BigPharma to give us good healthy high quality drugs. No, they give us substandard drugs, full of additives, fillers, and preservatives, many of which can not be metabolized by the body, especially in the disabled who are already suffering from kidney or liver failure.

Shouldnt we be talking about how to improve the quality of our medication and treatments BEFORE we haggle over the price or who is going to fit the bill? What does it matter if we are paying $10 or $100 if the medication we receive for that $10 is killing us?
11:20 PM on 04/28/2009
SeattleWill, I think you are quite exagerating about what to expect if such system is implemented in the US. A much more objective assessment can be found here:

http://open.salon.com/blog/kanuk/2009/03/11/health_care_comparison_universal_versus_us-style_systems

http://open.salon.com/blog/kanuk/2009/03/29/health_care_comparison_universal_vs_us_-_part_ii

In any case, I do not believe that a Universal health care system, similar to what we found up north, will be introduced in the US anytime soon.
08:39 AM on 04/29/2009
Seattle is right, actually. Just because you don't have that experience, and haven't done the research, doesn't mean it hasn't or doesn't happen. It does. All the time. And that isn't even talking about the abuse and neglect that occurs under the NHS. They just cut services and increased their rationing, mostly to the disabled, to cut costs. Their excuse "well, they're going to die anyway"

Yes, folks, someone actually said that.
11:47 AM on 04/29/2009
Well, I have never heard of rationing services for disabled people when I lived in Canada. Would the 45 million people who are not insured in the US agree with your assessment about rationing? As indicated somewhere in the links, “In Canada, medical service is great when you wait for it. In the US, it is great when you can afford it.”

Both systems have significant and different problems. However, the main question people should ask is whether the health care system should be consider a public service, similar to firefighting or police services or as a for-profit business model, such as when you go see an accountant or a lawyer. Once we answer this question, we can then decide how to make such system as cost efficient as possible.

For most developed countries, health care is considered a social service. This way you ensure that everyone is covered and will not go bankrupt in the event of an extreme illness or disability. As you know, this is not the case here in the US. When I see a friend of mine who has rotten teeth because she cannot seek medical attention, we definitely have a major societal problem. Notwithstanding the fact that her health is in jeopardy, she is currently unemployable. Who would hire such a person? If you include other cases like this (because I am sure there are many more), this can also have a large negative effect on the economic prosperity of a country.