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Richard (RJ) Eskow

Richard (RJ) Eskow

Posted: January 20, 2011 08:34 PM

Social Security Works has assembled a set of slides that illustrate the Democratic Party's striking decline in voter opinion on the issue of Social Security. They're all worth seeing, but one of them especially demands attention:

2011-01-20-trustobamabushsocialsecurity.JPG


When asked whether they trust the president or his opponents in Congress more on the issue of Social Security, people have less trust in Barack Obama than they did in George W. Bush when he had Obama's job. And the question was asked about Bush in 2005, at a time when his unpopular campaign to privatize Social Security was reaching its crescendo.

That's a stunning statistic. The Democratic Party created Social Security and was seen as its champion for three-quarters of a century. Yet voters have less trust in a Democratic president on this issue than they did for one who had pledged to privatize the entire system, and whose party opposed it from the beginning. And the difference isn't minor. 37 percent trusted Bush more than the opposition Democrats in 2005, which was considered a low number at the time. Yet only 26 percent trust Obama over the Republicans, even after their failed attempt to privatize the program -- and even though Democrats have a "brand identification" with Social Security.

The Republican privatization attempt was thought to have contributed significantly to that party's Congressional losses in 2006. Yet the president refuses to say that he won't cut Social Security, and he continues to have kind words for the reckless, inhumane, and unneeded proposals of his Deficit Commission co-chairs (the Commission was unable to agree to a plan).

In this climate, with these numbers, any attempt by the president to cut Social Security could only be described in one phrase: Political malpractice. Is that where he's headed? Or will he surprise us all by delivering a stirring, unequivocal defense of Social Security? After all the suspense and fear over this issue, that would be a political moment for the ages.

But if he's going to have a change of heart, he better act fast. The damage is already considerable. As Social Security Works explains, the 20-point advantage Democrats had on this issue for the last 15 years has evaporated, and trust in President Obama is roughly half of what it was for President Clinton on the same issue. Obama's performance is even worse among those much-sought-after independent voters. Only 18 percent of them trust him on this issue.

Other critical groups are sinking too. Democrats won seniors by seven points in 1996 and lost them by 21 percentage points in 2010. As Social Security Works writes:

Voters across all parties strongly oppose cutting Social Security benefits. 80% of the public opposes cuts to Social Security (70% strongly). Social Security is essentially a core value held by the public; politicians cut the program's benefits at their peril. Bipartisan majorities strongly oppose raising the retirement age to 69. They also oppose cutting benefits for those making more than $60,000 (essentially means-testing) because they recognize that people pay into Social Security and benefits are tied to the amount you contribute.


The public's preferred solution? "Bipartisan majorities support scrapping the payroll tax cap set at $106,800. They are comfortable requiring employers and employees to pay taxes on wages above that level."

Dan Froomkin reported on other poll findings in a piece entitled "Obama's Social Security Talk Is Turning Voters Off, Pollsters Say." It will turn them off even more in 2012, when Republicans spend millions reminding voters that the president broke his own unequivocal campaign pledge not to raise the retirement age or cut cost-of-living benefits. ("Let me be clear," said candidate Obama. "I will not do either.")

Why is this even an open question? Somehow, ideas that are widely rejected by the American public remain popular inside the Beltway Bubble. These ideas are usually mislabeled as "centrist" and "pragmatic" to give them mileage with credulous policymakers and journalists. (How can ideas be "centrist" when they're opposed by Democrats, Republicans, and independents by 70 percent to 80 percent overall? And how can they be be "practical" when the program's Chief Actuary under Ronald Reagan says they're not necessary or appropriate, and that lifting the payroll cap is a better approach?)

The latest attempt to push Social Security cuts tries to claim that these cuts aren't just "centrist" -- they're progressive, too. It's an intellectually dishonest work that wouldn't deserve attention if Obama's new chief of staff, JPMorgan executive Bill Daley, hadn't been a Board of Trustees member for the organization that authored it. Daniel Marans deconstructed it, so we won't repeat his work here. If anything he was too kind. (On the other hand, I did think that organization's suggestion that members of both parties sit together for the State of the Union was pretty sweet.)

It would be comforting to be able to say that this is all a misunderstanding and that the president will keep his promise to defend Social Security. But we can't do that. His silence about Social Security, especially after Harry Reid's stemwinding defense of the program, is disturbing. Reid and other members of the Senate and House are on the front line, and any attempt by Obama to triangulate and propose "bipartisan" cuts will devastate them. That's why there are reports like The Hill's of a strategic split between the president and Democrats in Congress: They're afraid he's going to sell them out for a personality-driven reelection campaign that suits his needs, not his party's or the country's.

And they've seen figures like these:

2011-01-21-whichpartydoyoutrustonsocialsecurity.JPG


Democrats in the House and Senate are likely to be swept out of office if a Democratic president proposes cutting Social Security. Republicans will run a replay of their successful 2010 campaign, when they spent $71.1 million on ads claiming they were defending Medicare (a program they've always opposed) from Democrats. And as the first figure shows, a "centrist" strategy to cut Social Security won't help the president either. It's a lose-lose-lose strategy: for the president, his party, and the American people.

As we said, we'd like to reassure everybody that the president won't cut Social Security anyway. We'd like to say that he won't propose benefit cuts that will hurt working Americans, a group that's already been financially battered, and compound the harm that's already been done to his party's reputation. We'd like to say he won't break his own unequivocal campaign pledge to protect Social Security, and that he won't ignore the advice of Social Security experts by proposed hurtful and unnecessary cuts.

But we can't do that. Only he can. And he hasn't done it yet.

There's still time. The president can use his State of the Union speech to tell the American public, as clearly and forcefully as he did on the campaign trail, that he'll defend Social Security and oppose any cuts in benefits. That would be brilliant political theater. All the suspense and uncertainty would only amplify the effect if he rocked the public with a ringing, unequivocal affirmation of his support for Social Security.

The president can start rebuilding the public's trust, or he can continue to lose it. On the issue of Social Security, there is no other choice.

(UPDATE: There's yet another poll showing the public's strong support for Social Security, but this one has a new twist. As we summarized here, "Americans would rather reduce military spending than cut Social Security.")


Richard (RJ) Eskow, a consultant and writer (and former insurance/finance executive), is a Senior Fellow with the Campaign for America's Future. This post was produced as part of the Strengthen Social Security campaign. Richard also blogs at A Night Light.

He can be reached at "rjeskow@ourfuture.org."

Website: Eskow and Associates

 

Follow Richard (RJ) Eskow on Twitter: www.twitter.com/rjeskow

 
 
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07:13 AM on 01/24/2011
Obama and many Democrats hurt themselves by saying, "We won't let the republicans privatize Social Security", but they didn't say, "We won't let them touch Social Security."

Obama started the hated fiscal commission that stars Alan Simpson and Bowles, whose main purpose is to get their fingers in Social Security. You need to read what they wrote about Social Security. They open it up for later 'adjustments'.
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allenwsmith
11:20 PM on 01/21/2011
NO PROVISIONS HAVE BEEN MADE FOR REPAYMENT OF THE LOOTED MONEY

For the past 30 years, the government has used the surplus Social Security revenue to supplement its general revenue budget. The Social Security surplus was used as a giant secret slush fund, and even by spending it, the government could still not pay its bills. The days of significant Social Security surpluses are now over and decades of Social Security deficits lay ahead of us. Beginning in 2015, full Social Security benefits cannot be paid unless some of the looted money is repaid. The problem is that the government has made no provisions for repaying the money and may be unable or unwilling to repay it. With the national debt having skyrocketed from $1 trillion in 2001 to $14 trillion today, the government may be unable to borrow the money needed to repay its debt. Furthermore, it is unlikely that members of Congress could agree on cutting other budget items to generate the money. That leaves increasing taxes as the only other option. But the American people were conditioned by Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush to believe that raising taxes is just about the worst of all possible sins. Taxes cannot be increased without the support of both the public and the Congress. It may not be politically feasible for the government to raise taxes in order to repay the looted Social Security money.
06:00 PM on 01/21/2011
Why am I not allowed to opt out of Social Security? I can invest in my own retirement fund much more prudently than the government.
06:59 AM on 01/24/2011
If you have extra money after paying your taxes, including Social Security and Medicare taxes, mortgage and expenses, then you are free to invest in your own retirement fund.

The majority of people may have to pay for your retirement, if you have lost it all in the stock market or didn't bother to save. Social Security is good, because the money collected over the years protects those who think they will be rich by the time they are old, those who have no foresight and those who lose money in the stock market.

Consider your Social Security as bonds and invest your extra money in the stock market.
03:07 PM on 01/24/2011
If I want a bond, I'll purchase a bond. I could make several times what I would make with social security with even a CONSERVATIVE investment strategy. And I will make darn sure to save. I don't need Uncle Sam taking care of me and making sure I save for retirement. I'm a big boy.

It's not even Social Security that bothers me. It's the lack of a choice. Social Security is broke, anyway.
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DismayedRepub
300km/s Not just common sense, it’s the law
05:58 PM on 01/21/2011
Since the establishment of Social Security Trust Fund the U.S. Treasury has been borrowing the surplus FICA taxes paid into the system. The trust fund currently contains $2.6 trillion of these surplus tax receipts in the form of U.S. Treasury bonds. Congress has already spent (raided) this money and it is gone.

The problem is that the SSA has a negative cash flow and will have to start paying out more money than they take in. The SSA will start cashing in their Treasury bonds in order to make up the shortfall. In other words, the Congress is not going to be able to use this as a revolving line of credit and have to start paying the money back to the SSA.

You may ask yourself, why was the FICA tax reduced if the system is in crisis? Well, another facet of this negative cash flow is that there are no more surplus FICA receipts in the SS system for the Congress to raid. But they have figured out a way to raid it anyway and that is the recent FICA tax reduction. The earnings not taxed for FICA become taxable income. Congress is redirecting revenue once reserved for our old age benefit directly into the U.S. Treasury. Instead of borrowing it they are simply taking it.

(continued in reply)
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DismayedRepub
300km/s Not just common sense, it’s the law
06:43 PM on 01/21/2011
This is not a Social Security crisis as much as it is a budget crisis. $2.6T is enough to fund benefits into 2037 or so but now that Congress has reduced the FICA tax base I have no idea how far short of that year the fund will last. Congress has created this problem and is just trying to weasel out of their obligation to the people that paid into this system over their entire working lives. How do you like your SS tax cut now?

In my prior post I made a statement “The earnings not taxed for FICA become taxable income” which is ambiguous. What I mean by this is since the FICA tax is less; the net result is you have more taxable income. You’ll end up paying your nominal income tax on that 2% FICA “tax cut”.
07:07 AM on 01/24/2011
Since we are not paying the money into Social Security it will be taxed, giving more money to the general fund. What I don't understand is they promised to pay the 2% back out of the general fund.

The 2% Social Security cut, has given groups like American Enterprise Institute and people like Andrew Biggs a reason to say, "This pretty much ends the claim that Social Security is self-financing or that it doesn't contribute to the budget deficit."

Andrew is wrong. All it proves is the republican leaders think we are stupid and they can pull silly tricks like that and we will believe it. Apparently Obama thinks the same thing. They hope it will give them the right to cut Social Security 'since it is part of the general fund'.

The ignorance is mind boggling.
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allenwsmith
11:03 PM on 01/21/2011
Prior to 1983, Social Security operated on a strictly pay as you go basis, with each generation paying for the benefits of the previous generation. Therefore, there we no significant surpluses for the government to loot. That all changed with enactment of the Social Security Amendments of 1983. In addition to paying for their parents' benefits, the baby boomers were also required to prepay the cost of their own benefits. That is where the $2.6 trillion surplus that is supposed to be in the trust fund came from. The money rightly belongs to the trust fund and to the baby boomers who paid the tax to accumulate the surplus. But there is no money in the trust fund. From the time the first surplus revenue began to flow in during Reagan's second term, to this very day, every dollar of the surplus revenue was diverted to the general fund and used for general government operations. Therefore, the $2.6 trillion surplus no longer exists. It has all been spent and replaced with IOUs, which are nothing more than claims against future tax collections. The IOUs cannot be converted to cash and used to pay benefits. The only way they can be redeemed is with higher taxes, cuts in other programs, or increased borrowing. They are not real bonds. They are just accounting records of how much Social Security money has been looted.
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DismayedRepub
300km/s Not just common sense, it’s the law
10:32 PM on 01/22/2011
Allen, according to the 2009 Trust Fund Summary Report from the SS website; “The Department of the Treasury invests program revenues in special nonmarketable securities of the U.S. Government on which a market rate of interest is credited”. I watched a TV show about a half year ago where they visited the SS Administration office that stores the Treasury documents. I think it was somewhere in W. Virginia. The reporter pulled one of the documents out of a file cabinet and it was a $340 billion dollar bond. If you look at some of the Trust Fund reports going back to 1937 you’ll see that the FICA surpluses were indeed “appropriated by Congress”.

http://www.socialsecurity.gov/history/reports/trust/trustreports.html
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allenwsmith
04:31 PM on 01/21/2011
There is no justification for cutting Social Security benefits. It is a self-funding program that has not contributed a dime to the deficits or the skyrocketing national debt. Furthermore, the 1983 payroll tax hike required the baby boomers to prepay the cost of their own benefits, in addition to paying for the benefits of their parents generation. That 1983 payroll tax hike has generated $2.6 trillion in surplus Social Security revenue which is enough to pay full benefits to the baby boomers until 2037 when the oldest of the boomers will be 91 years old, and the youngest will be 73.

THERE IS JUST ONE LITTLE PROBLEM NOT COVERED IN THE ABOVE PARAGRAPH. Every dollar of that $2.6 trillion of surplus Social Security revenue has already been spent on such things as tax cuts for the rich, two wars, and other government programs. None of the surplus revenue was saved or invested in anything. The spent money was replaced with IOUs that can in no way be used to pay benefits. The IOUs are claims against future tax collections which can be redeemed only by raising taxes, cutting other programs or increased borrowing. Most of the surplus money generated by the 1983 payroll tax hike was used to fund income-tax cuts for the rich. That money rightly belongs to the trust fund and to the workers who contributed the money. We should impose a special tax on the rich to fund repayment of the looted money.
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allenwsmith
01:52 PM on 01/21/2011
Tax the Rich to Repay Looted Social Security Money
by Allen W. Smith / January 13th, 2011
Most Americans have come to expect politicians to bend the truth, exaggerate the truth, and withhold part of the truth. But what about a high profile political leader who tells a whopper, that he knows to be untrue, especially when this whopper is designed to fool all Americans, not just his own constituents? That is exactly what Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid, did in an interview with NBC’s David Gregory on “Meet the Press,” on Sunday January 9. To read more, please click the link: http://dissidentvoice.org/2011/01/tax-the-rich-to-repay-looted-social-security-money/
01:31 PM on 01/21/2011
This is where the rubber meets the road and all of Obama's high-minded talk fall flat.
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allenwsmith
01:18 PM on 01/21/2011
Continued from previous post:

Dr. Smith, author of "The Looting of Social Security" and "The Big Lie: How Our Government Hoodwinked the Public, Emptied the S.S. Trust Fund, and caused The Great Economic Collapse," says there is no justifiable reason for cutting Social Security benefits. Since most of the raided money was used to replace the lost revenue from the unaffordable income tax cuts for the rich, Smith thinks the money should be repaid through a special tax imposed on that same group of taxpayers. If the "borrowed" money is repaid, full benefits can be paid until 2037, Smith points out. And, Social Security could be made fully solvent for many more decades by simply removing the earnings cap on income subject to payroll taxes.
Contact:
Allen W. Smith, Ph.D.
1-800-840-6812
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allenwsmith
01:18 PM on 01/21/2011
WINTER HAVEN, Fla., Jan. 19, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- The best thing President Obama could say in his State of the Union Address, to help the American public understand the true status of Social Security, would be to tell the whole truth about the so-called Social Security "trust fund," says economist and author, Allen W. Smith, Ph.D. For years, Smith says, the public has been led to believe that the trust fund holds real marketable assets that can be sold to raise cash for paying future benefits. That was supposed to be the case, Smith points out, but the $2.6 trillion of surplus Social Security revenue, generated by the 1983 payroll tax hike, was not saved and invested, as was the intent of the 1983 legislation. Instead, the surplus revenue has been spent on general government operations. Those IOUs, called "special issues of the Treasury," are only a claim against future tax collections, and they can be redeemed, only by raising taxes, cutting spending elsewhere, or borrowing. Smith believes that President Obama can gain a lot of credibility with the public by revealing the raiding of the trust fund under Presidents Reagan, Bush I, Clinton, and Bush II. Beginning in 2015, Smith says, full Social Security benefits cannot be paid unless the government begins repaying the "borrowed" money.

To be continued.
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allenwsmith
01:10 PM on 01/21/2011
The problem is not in determing who is most trustworthy on Social Security among Democrats and Republicans. The problem is that the American public cannot count on any politicians from either party to tell the truth on the subject because they have all been lying for the past 25 years.

Senator Harry Reid told the truth in a Senate speech on October 9, 1990, when he expressed his outrage at the practice of looting the trust fund. Pointing to a chart displaying a single word in large letters, Senator Reid said,

“…On that chart in emblazoned red letters is what has been taking place here, embezzlement. During the period of growth we have had during the past 10 years, the growth has been from two sources. One, a large credit card with no limits on it, and, two, we have been stealing money from the Social Security recipients of this country.”

The practice, that Reid used the words, "embezzlement" and "stealing," to describe, in 1990, has continued, totally unchanged, to this very day. But Senator Reid lost his appetite for battling the looting once he got into a party leadership position. For two decades, Reid has watched the outrageous practice continue without doing anything to stop it. Now he just blantantly lies by saying Social Security is "fully funded for the next 40 years," when he knows better than anyone that, in just four years, full benefits cannot be paid unless some of the looted money is repaid.
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roscoeman
Badges? We don't need no badges
12:43 PM on 01/21/2011
I believe now that Obama made a deal with the banksters to be elected, and the deal was to end social security as we know it. He is not a friend of the progressives, or for that matter the American people. We, American people, have become marginalized in our own country. Our vote no longer matters. The two-party system, unverifiable elections, and the corrupt citizens united decision has left us stuck in free-speech zones shouting at the wind.
01:37 PM on 01/21/2011
It has left us with taxation without representation.
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Tygartman
Hoping for Change in 2012
12:17 PM on 01/21/2011
The funniest thing is that the headline says "shocker".....why would this be a shock to anyone whose head isn't buried in the sand and isn't blinded by ideology....oh, wait.....never mind.
11:55 AM on 01/21/2011
Matthew 15:4-6

"For God commanded, saying, Honour thy father and mother: and, He that curseth father or mother, let him die the death.

But ye say, Whosoever shall say to his father or his mother, It is a gift, by whatsoever thou mightest be profited by me;

And honour not his father or his mother, he shall be free. Thus have ye made the commandment of God of none effect by your tradition."

The Dems don't pursue charity, they destroy it by breaking the sense of responsibility that children have always had toward the welfare of their parents.
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11:47 AM on 01/21/2011
At least we now know that *some* people are thinking :)
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11:37 AM on 01/21/2011
And a well placed mistrust it is.