Present at the Cremation: The Long, Slow Death of the GOP?
Nowhere is it written that major political parties will live forever. In fact, over the course of the first 100 years of our country's history, Americans saw the rise and fall of numerous nationally powerful political parties. The Federalists and Democratic-Republicans ruled the day in the late 18th and early 19th century. By the 1850's it was the Whig Party and the Democratic Party battling for national political supremacy. The Whigs would ultimately be destroyed in 1856 by the question of whether to allow the expansion of slavery into the territories of the West. That gave rise to the Republican Party and henceforth the major two-party system that has dominated American politics for the past 153 years.
We are witnessing today, however, an unmistakable emergence of deep fissures within the Republican Party. These are serious indications of a momentous, generational shift underway in the American political landscape not seen in almost a century. It begs the question, are we watching the beginning of the end of the Republican Party--the long, slow death of the GOP?
The name of the aggressive and virulent upstart Party that is trying to push its Republican patriarch into an early grave is unclear--call it a re-energized national Conservative Party, a Social-Conservative Party or maybe even the "Tea Party" (the revolutionary-era moniker it seems to prefer). While the label may be in question, its faces are not. This is the Party of Sarah Palin, Rush Limbaugh, Dick Cheney, Dick Armey, Glenn Beck, Grover Norquist, Michelle Bachmann and Mike Huckabee (just to name a few--yes, I left out Chuck Norris). They have launched a nationwide political insurrection--on the ground and in the airwaves--that is inflicting serious injury to the party of Lincoln, Reagan and George H.W. Bush.
Don't believe me? Just look at what is taking place today in New York's 23rd Congressional District. What should have been a low-visibility, off-cycle special election to fill a vacant Congressional seat has erupted into full-fledged Republican civil warfare--with serious national implications for the future of the GOP.
Apoplectic that local Republican Party leaders had nominated as their candidate a socially-moderate state legislator by the name of Dede Scozzafava (she supports abortion rights, gay rights and has ties to organized labor), local Conservatives revolted and ran a candidate of their own--Doug Hoffman. Sensing the moment and the terrain were ripe to make their stand, the national Tea Party masters declared open warfare on Scozzafava, if only to use her as a proxy in what looks more like an insurrection against the pillars of the Republican Party.
The Tea Party has filtered millions of dollars in donations to the Hoffman campaign through organizations like the Club for Growth. Glenn Beck has hosted Doug Hoffman live in the studio. Michelle Malkin, the conservative commentator, said of Scozzafava, "[s]he's an ACORN-Friendly, Big Labor-Backing, Tax-and-Spend, Margaret Sanger Award-Winning Radical in GOP Clothing -- a left-wing saboteur who seeks to marginalize mainstream conservatism with conservatives' own money." Wow, how's that for a family feud.
By taking direct aim at the chosen candidate of the Republican National Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee (which combined have poured millions into the race on Scozzafava's behalf), the Tea Party has resigned itself to splitting the right's voting base and dramatically increasing the likelihood that Democrats will win the NY-23rd seat for the first time since Reconstruction. They obviously see a loss here as an acceptable casualty in the wider insurrection they have launched--one with the twin goals of becoming the power-center of the political right, and elevating a socially-conservative agenda into the American political mainstream.
The Tea Party has even launched a few salvos against one of their own high-priests and potential 2012 presidential candidates--Newt Gingrich. Gingrich has endorsed Scozzafava and has returned fire by accusing the Tea Party of conducting a "purge."
All of this infighting currently revolves around ideological warfare, but when you dive even deeper into the cross-currents of American politics, the structural signs of the future viability of the Republican Party are equally as bad. Two examples: the current youth generation--Gen Y or the Millennials--are the largest generation in US history. They have gone 2-1 for President Obama. Latino's are the fastest growing voting bloc in the United States (from 2% of actual voters during the Clinton years to 12% today). They went 2-1 for Obama. And it is the Democratic Party that has staked its claim as the big-tent party, one that today is full of southern moderates and rational-conservatives like Arkansas Senator Mark Pryor and Florida Senator Bill Nelson, and western libertarians like Montana Senator Jon Tester and former Colorado Senator and now Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar.
The GOP can find a way to win this war. They must launch a concerted effort to win back youth by embracing science, evolution, and the obvious impacts of climate change. They must embrace minority growth with comprehensive immigration reform, and shun the blatant bigotry of Rush Limbaugh, Lou Dobbs and other Tea Party masters. Republicans must pull their party out of the Vietnam era and into the modern day by turning away from an epically failed neoconservative foreign policy, embrace the reality of a globalized world, and start working with President Obama to win wars and rehabilitate America's power at home and around the world.
While Election Day is less than a week away, unquestionably a modern day, political Fort Sumter has taken place in upstate New York. It seems as though the Republican Party-of-old is bloodied and in retreat on this early battlefield. While it may only be the first volleys, however intense, it is certainly not the last in this war for the hearts and minds of the Grand Old Party. Democrats will be wise to stay out of the cross-fire.
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Where have you been? I've been predicting the demise of the GOP due to the concomitant rise of the Tea Party for about six months now. (Proof is on my Facebook page).
What you're saying basically is that in order to avoid history's graveyard, the GOP has to become more liberal. At least, more cognizant of the realities of Global Warming, Evolution, and Globalization. Which amounts to the same thing. I agree. They also have to publicly decry, and turn their backs on, the Troglodyte Right - the Glen Becks, Michelle Bachmanns, and Orly Taitzes. Taking those two actions will rip the GOP apart like those animations of cell division they show in evolution videos. There will most likely emerge a more moderate, mainline GOP that is attractive to independents but anathema to the wingnuts, which will most likely form a new party, most likely called the Conservative Party, and which will most likely be referred to popularly as the Tea Party. Basically it will be a sea change in what is identified as the GOP "base." What we are watching is nothing less than the most important development in party politics since the Civil War. And it will virtually guarantee a Democratic hegemony for generations to come.
Even as a Democrat, I'm not really sure that's a good thing. But at least it's a lot more hopeful than the thought of the GOP hegemony that Karl Rove was striving for.
It isn't the end. It is a beginning. Here is news people: Fly over America is mad as hell and you saw it in New Jersy and Virginia and you "Ain't seen anything yet." A year from now when the mid-term congressional elections are over, we will not be seeing any stories like this one. Hide and watch.
Talk about out of touch. Wake up! What we have here is a silent majority waking up from a long slumber. These midterm elections are only the beginning. Most of America is fed up with politics as usual. We voted for Obama because we were tire of the same old business as usual. And what did we get? More of the same. Backroom deals, partisan politics, more corruption than we had under the Bush administration. I came into this year with hope and instead in a few short months it has become clear we are headed for government takeover. If it takes a new party then so be it, as long as they have an agenda that is clear. I'm glad things are being shaken up. MORE GOVERNMENT IS NOT THE ANSWER!!!
Of course now the trend would be that you will vote Republican in the midterm. Good luck with that.
I wouldn't count the Grand Old Party out yet. I recently happened upon this curiosity in the Janary 7, 1954 issue of Jet Magazine:
"George W. Lee, Nashville GOP Committeeman, telling of the scarcity of Republicans during the depression: 'They were so scarce that when one of them died you had to put 20 cans of baking powder in his coffin so he would rise when Gabriel blew his horn.'
The Democratic candidate in Virginia has run an abysmal campaign and has the charisma of a chair. At the outset he seemed to distance himself from the President. The republicant candidates are all extreme in their social views and their base is motivated. Here in Northern VA every republicant ad is about taxes. It's all they have and their know nothing base has responded predictably. Last GOP governor lowered our hated car tax and budgetary hell ensued. This race isn't all about national politics just lame candidates on the Democratic side.
I agree with your logic, but how do you explain an extreme social conservative, follower of Pat Robertson, with a possible 10 point lead in Virginia? The Republican candidate may still carry NJ next week. Obama was a once in a lifetime candidate and may have won on his own and not as a Democrat. We may be in a period of anti-incumbency not anti-Republicanism.
I find it odd that Pat Robertson is despised in Virgina Beach where he resides and yet his desciple is going to be Govener. Only in the soulth could such illogic prevail.
FYI: There's a long, slow death of both parties -- Democrats and Republicans are owned by the corporations and people are starting to realize it.
The Republican Party was destroyed by George W. Bush. So what. The corporations still own the U.S. Government. Nothing has changed.
AMEN!!
News of their demise has been greatly exagerrated. Management in almost all major corporations is almost 100% republican. They are the "ruling" party. So even of you vote them out of office, their presence will always be there in the form of beauracratic resistance. What ever you try, they will resist. They are like dogs, they live by pushing back. So what to do. Red states and blue. It is the only solution and ones that even the Gods tried with disastrous results. Why? Becasue they need us, we do not need them. We want change. they do not. As soon as you seperate them, we begin to change and they just rot.
Dogs do not live by pushing back.dogs endear themselves to their owners and provide a service
Your analogy doesn't work! Woof
The GOP lurch to the right is the best thing that could possibly happen to the progressive movement. Moderate republicans have already lost their party to extremist crazies.
The GOP is already dead. They have no new ideas. What you are describing is merely the slow decomposition of a stinking corpse.
Bingo, Kalifornika
Sarah Palin/FABIO 2012!
In my opinion, Ds and Rs don't matter all that much. Both sides can be bought by the Fortune 500 and their K Street cabal. Because face it, everyone needs to get re-elected. The current health care debate is a perfect example. R & D tactics to marginalize progressive initiatives are driven by conglomerates concerned with near term returns. Wall Street doesn't lose sleep over wedge issues like RvW, DOMA, or DADT. It's fodder for the masses and the herd takes the bait as unaware as lambs to the slaughter. The government is a vehicle consolidate wealth and power by those in power. Eliminate the peak to peak influence between top one percent and Washington, then it might be possible to delivery democracy back to the voter. This influence is why we are at war without end, it's why we are without universal health care, and it's why we have irreversibly polluted this planet.
And your solution is????
Term limits is a start and no more political bribes is another solution.
Rob,
I enjoyed this thoughtful commentary because of the historical aspect and the potential future consequences. The "ahh ha!" moments made it memorable.
Thank you.
I Dugg it; sent it to NewsTrust and voted it here w/ the little "Important" button.
You might also want to look at the Modern Whig Party. It was founded by returning Iraq and Afghanistan veterans who were fed up with partisan bickering and ideology. They have grown into very large numbers in about 30 states. The difference is that these Modern Whigs are moderates who are picking off in droves Republicans who are sick of the conservative bent of the GOP, as well as moderate/conservative Dems sick of the liberal extreme. Socially accepting and fiscally conservative, the Modern Whig Party is worth keeping an eye on. They also have three Congressional candidates, with Paul C. McKain in Florida raising numerous eyebrows and even local media is viewing hm as a viable candidate on equal level with the D and Rs.
I LOVE the idea of a multi party political system. The lobbyists wouldn't have enough money to corrupt them all. Right now we have one party with two branches!
They have plenty of money to go around. Especially the smaller states which takes less $$$ to run on.
5000 dollars goes further in places like Montana than California.
Allisonbrown19-Again with a third party.again I ask this one question.If a third party puts forth a viable vote getting candidate for President.How does he get past the Electoral Vote?
First thing is that candidate would have to be allowed in the debates. Right now they are not allowed to debate with the Democrats or Republicans.
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